April Foolish Predictions Complete: Actress & Picture
Sunday, April 10, 2011 at 10:20PM So my "April Foolish" Oscar Predictions are now complete. I rejiggered two tech predictions once I finally decided on my ten Best Pictures but honestly, any combo of the top 20 listed seems just as plausible as any other so long as the obvious get, War Horse, is there. (It's practically as obvious as The King's Speech was a year out.) We won't know until January how well I did but it's exciting this far out when anything seems possible yes?
BEST PICTURE
I didn't expect to get so fully behind Super 8 but sometimes your own predictions surprise you once you have to work every category out. My wishful thinking pick is David Cronenberg's psychoanalytic period drama A Dangerous Method which is a big old question mark for a number of reasons. But my hunch is that Viggo Mortensen, Michael Fassbender and Keira Knightley will all bring it which will heat up the material which is already sexual conceptually speaking since it's about Freud and Jung. But Cronenberg has never been to the Academy's liking so I'm probably wrong. My wildcard guess -- as in something that's not an obvious contender -- is Oren Moverman's Rampart, a police corruption drama. This film will have the same challenge as My Week With Marilyn in that it will only win real Oscar traction if it feels much larger or more mythic than a telefilm on the same material since both cover topics that have been dramatized on television many times: cop dramas and Marilyn Monroe respectively. My guess for Smallest Nomination Tally But still Best Pic competitor is We Bought a Zoo (just a hunch). My guess for Film With Most Noms That Doesn't Get Nominated For Best Picture (whew) which was Alice in Wonderland last year and Nine the year before (i think?) is The Adventures of TinTin: The Secret of the Unicorn but if I'm wrong on that, I feel certain it'll be Hugo Cabret.
QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Which film am I greatly overestimating?
Which movie am I greatly underestimating?
Where am I Goldilocks "just right"?
I'll admit I had NO idea what to make of Moneyball. You?
BEST ACTRESS
Elizabeth Olsen and Felicity Jones were the twin Sundance bids for this category in January and we know how last year and the year before (Bening & Lawrence, Mulligan & Sidibe) turned out: all were nominated. But in a fit of bravery, I'm not predicting either of them.
I'm going with a mostly Previous Nominees lineup. How do you deny Michelle Williams, Glenn Close or Keira Knightley for example this far ahead with juicy roles? As for never-nominated people, I'm totally curious to see what happens with Charlotte Rampling's film The Eye of the Storm.
ACTRESSY QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Anyone think they'll pass on Meryl Streep this year? (I perversely wanted to predict it.)
Which actress am I underestimating?
Could you see Williams winning for Marilyn?
Note to New Readers
The navigation bar up-top has pull down menus for each Oscar charts or you can click on the Prediction Index and investigate from there. Join in the conversation!
Reader Comments (81)
As much as I love Glenn Close, the more I think about it, the more I feel bad for her. i think she can score a nom, but if she's going against Michelle Williams - who is increasingly respected, is on her third nom (giving the overdue/earned it/it's her time perception), and is likely to give a good performance - then i think Close will have trouble winning.
if Williams does pull through with a good performance that goes beyond mimcry but is something interesting then she has it in the bag. She's young, she has a strong indie cred, she also is up and coming, and voters are very familiar with her. I also suspect her performance will be successful mostly because of her track record. When has she ever taken a role that she hasn't done a good job with?
I think Tilda Swinton will shine with We Need to alk About Kevin.
"Keira was mentioned in few times as a sure nominee and even the winner and then nothing. My feeling around this: Keira needs outstading raves for her performance. I don't think she has the support of the british spot (Actually most of her louded detractors are british), she hasn't the "it" feeling as Mulligan is having right now in both sides of the Atlantic, she hasn't the status for being overdue or even a defense like Portman had it last year and having excellent PR like Cotillard. I wouldn't be surprised if Fassbender will be the only nomination for the cast"
Anon, I'm having trouble knowing what you mean by a 'sure fire nominee'? At the beginning of the year there are a ton of actresses who could get nominated, but by the end it's almost always down to 5, 6, 7, or 8. Keira was only ever close to being nominated again in Atonement - but that cooled once the US critics reviewed it. I'd still say she was top 10, though, easily, and at that point the closet of her generation to get two nominations. Also, I don't remember ever hearing of Keira being a winner?
And by your logic, Carey is so much of an 'it' girl that she was nominated for Never Let Me Go, right? ;) Things happen. As for Portman, well all that came about *after* reviews... same with Cotillard. We don't have any reviews for ADM so it's not really fair to compare at this point.
Keira has received raves for her performance on stage (perhaps an indicator of how much she has grown as an actress), and Cronenberg and Fassy have praised her out the roof for her performance in ADM. Of course, they're not going to exactly insult her, but of all the cast members, they've been particularly forthcoming about her performance. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be surprised by her in this as they were with her on stage.
Oh, and The Duchess and The Edge of Love aren't really comparable to A Dangerous Method - a) the quality of the director, obviously, b) the latter was a really small movie, tiny release, no press c) Keira is in a much different spot in her career; as a huge fan, I'm not very fond of her performance in The Duchess (though I do love her in Edge); but with her reviews for NLMG and especially the stage, I think she's only gotten better in the last year.
The Brits, I'm sure, will rally behind her if her performance is up to standards.
thanks for defining your thoughts on Streep ... I agree about her winning an Oscar for a part not worthy.. but I can't agree on her taking all parts from other actresses... she went through a lean period and she now can at least pave the way for more actresses to get meatier roles... the fact is there are not many of those roles around.
I also agree about her casting as Viola in"August ..." we saw the play and I actually thought she would be better as Barbara, the eldest daughter...
Anyway, I did not mean to write an essay, either!!
I think it's cute you list Margaret. I'm pretty sure that move is a myth. A myth starring Matt Damon and Anna Paquin, but a myth nonetheless.
I'm a little worried about Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn. She's an awfully quiet actress whose two nominations thus far have come from playing the meek, quiet, and pained wife-- she'll really have to amp up the loudness to do the role justice. It's totally possible, but the role is not something that makes me say "Awesome- she's going to nail that."
That said, this is the kind of thing I really hope that people win for-- for stepping outside of their comfort zone and not just playing the roles that correspond to their personalities. Just the other day, I was thinking that as much as I love cutesy Amy Adams in Enchanted and Junebug, I hope her eventual Oscar win comes from something edgy like The Fighter.
Well, Danielle, when I said "it" girl I mean the perception for the public. Right now, Mulligan is having two significant roles in two big productions (The Great Gasby and On Chesil Beach) and the Brit support... Maybe I respond with different perspective because I'm not a fan of Knightley's performances (Actually I found her average in some points of her movies).
Again, I could be wrong and finally Knightley will be the frontrunner. Also, I take the comments of the cast with a grain of salt. The final result will be tested.
oscars voters, you're officially on notice:
i'm going to punch each and every one of you in the face if glenn close doesn't win
(don't get me thinking about what i'll do if you don't nominate her)
I'm pulling for Williams, and although when I first heard she was cast as Marilyn Monroe I was a bit reticent, I think she's more than capable and competent to give a compelling performance...the only thing that's stopping me from predicting her as the winner is that I have a feeling the film will be lighter than what we're expecting. Oscar obviously likes their winners to be in pain/turmoil/desperation.
Most likely Streep will be nominated, although I'm not exactly gasping to see this movie. I don't think this will be a Helen Mirren/Stephen Frears/The Queen event that will catapult her to the podium at the Oscars...I'm thinking this film could get mixed-to-generally-okay reviews like Julie & Julia.
I could see Glenn Close missing the nod...but maybe my feeling stems from the fact that I'm generally not a big fan of her work and especially the director, Rodrigo Garcia.
I'm just gonna go ahead and get on the bandwaggon for Keira Knightley...it looks like a killer part and the film seems very intriguing. If she knocks it out of the park, I see her as a serious spoiler to win.
Foster could easily get nominated, but I doubt she will win. Do they REALLY love her so much that they will give her a third (especially if it's at the expense of their QUEEN MERYL). I'm not feeling Rooney Mara, although I expect the film to be a big success.
So, my predictions:
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia (My wildcard pick. Prob a 90% chance it won't happen, but I just am not feeling Glenn Close).
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
gotta say, i think you're underestimating Hugo Cabret. Family movie or not, It's Scorsese. Just a thought.
01. Meryl Streep, The iron lady. She will win in a cake walk. (And she will win again next year like Hepburn did in 67 and 68).
02. Michelle Williams, My week with Marilyn (she will be nominated for sure for one of the 1000 films she is releasing this year).
03. Sandra Bullock, Extremely loud and incredibly close (Stephen Daldry, enough said)
04. Felicity Jones, Like crazy (I guess she won at Sundance because she was better than Olsen, also the film won the big prize)
05. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene (the film will have a good critic reception and Hawkes will be nominated again, so I guess she will be in contention).
And then:
Glenn Close, the character is baity, Close is an exceptional actress, but the film is directed by Rodrigo Garcia whose films usually go nowhere.
Keira Knigthley, I believe she is going supporting.
Rooney Mara. There's only one Lisbeth Salander and her name is Noomi Rapace. Also probrably the film will be in the line of Sev7n than The social network.
I can't possibly see Keira gaining traction as a lead especially with Viggo and Fassbender in the same film as Freud and Jung respectively. Additionally, in Streep, Close and Williams, you have three actresses with far more career heat and are the true leads in their films. Assuming all three get nominated, (mind you that's no guarantee) Keira probably doesn't stand much of a chance in the lead category.
It just makes much more sense to drop her to supporting, where she probably stands a much better chance. There's obviously some good competition there as well, with Viola and maybe even Chastain but it seems like the better way to go if she wants to win.
As for the doubts about AMPAS finally embracing a Cronenberg film, this is probably as baity a Cronenberg film can be, at least in recent memory. Period biopic with two big real-people leads being played by a cast with lots of career heat behind them. Hey, if they can go for Black Swan, I can't see why they can't go for this just one year later.
I also think you're underestimating the BP chances of The Ides of March and Moneyball. Clooney directing political again+ all-star cast+ ideal release date is bound to get AMPAS attention. As for Moneyball, the last time Aaron Sorkin wrote a movie about computer coding and stats etc. (don't know what the right term is) it ended up being my favorite film of 2010. That's enough to convince me that this story will run deeper than just a guy building a championship team off advanced sabermetric stats, much like TSN..
Evan -- i love that you called A DANGEROUS METHOD, "Dangerous Mind" and never has a Freudian slip been more appropriate since it's actually about Sigmund Freud. ;) but i had an amusing flash of a rerelease of the Michelle Pfeiffer Masterpiece (KIDDING!) about the whitebread teacher who changes the lives of all those minority kids ;)
Prash -- interesting theory about leads and supporting but if Cronenberg is already saying that Viggo is supporting, maybe the film really focuses on Jung and (i forget her name) and Keira's part is bigger than many are imagining? I saw a play on this same material (not the Hampton play) and the girl actually had the biggest part.
Arkaan -- i'll keep listing it as a matter of amusing perversion as long as IMDb keeps changing its "year" and now it says "2011"
I don't like the chances of J. Edgar, We Bought a Zoo or A Dangerous Method & whilst I think it will be good I don't think Rampart is gonna scream oscar. Of those listed I would say watch out for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March (my early pick), Carnage (my no.2) and Tinker Sailor Solder Spy. All of which I think will be around the top 5.
Cogan's Trade (AKA Killing Them Softly) isn't going to come out this year. But when it does... BAM! It is gonna knock everyone's socks off.
Raj -- why do you think so ? (on Cogan's Trade?) and what is inspiring you about IDES OF MARCH to that degree? it seemed ot me that the play got respectful reviews but nothing like "omg this is brilliant"
Prash -- thanks for the thoughts on MONEYBALL. Maybe you're right. I guess the question is will lightning strike twice for Sorkin. People thought he was a sure thing for CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR and it didn't happen.
Anon, On Chesil Beach isn't happening any time soon. Yes she got Gatsby, but Keira got Anna Karenina with a director who's more suitable for the material.
Anyway, no need to compare. I agree Keira needs to knock it out of the park, but the difference is that I have a lot more faith in her doing that. :)
Prash: I think people are overestimating how big of a role Mortensen has. In fact, Sabina (Keira's character) had *the* main character arc in Christopher Hampton's stage play. I don't know how much has actually crossed over, but judging by Cronenberg's comments, Keira and Fassy are co-leads. As for her not being able to 'stand the heat,' we haven't seen any performances so we can't tell yet whose performance will be 'on fire' so to speak. Yes, Michelle Williams has a lot of career heat right now, but she just got that last year for Blue Valentine. The same can happen with Keira in A Dangerous Method.
Nathaniel: RE: Cogan's Trade, I've been following the film quite closely; it's still filming, Dominik took ages to cut Jesse James (I know this is likely a different prospect) and when TWC picked it up they said they were aiming at a Q1 2012 release. I suppose it has some chance of a December slot but that month is REALLY crowded. Plus, I like dealing in absolutes.
RE: The Ides of March, It's largely a gut feeling but reasons include Clooney is total Hwood royalty and his last serious attempt behind the camera (a B&W film no less) scored big with the academy. It has just about the best cast of the year (very oscarable too) and has a real chance of hitting the (liberal) zeitgeist. Also, Gosling has a huge year (Drive & Crazy Stupid Love) as does Clooney (Descendants) and Hoffman (Moneyball). It all adds up to a good value for money bet for me.
I think one these four could surprise:
Helen Mirren, “The Door”
Emily Watson, “Oranges and Sunshine”
Naomi Watts, “The Impossible”
Rachel Weisz, “The Deep Blue Sea”
Which film am I greatly overestimating? Super 8 (and The Tree Of Life maybe?)
I'm not feeling Super 8 as a oscar potential at all, if they are going for a spilberg year, i'm thinking War Horse and TinTin are enough. I'm thinking this one will fare like War Of The Worlds - sounds, visuals and maybe cinematography (?), but picture/directing it's still a longshot, but who knows.
I'm also afraid Academy won't jump in TTOL wagon. People are comparing it to Black Swan, and I do think the only way it gets in is if it becomes a massive critic AND public sensation (worth noticin BS only managed 5 noms while people were expecting like, 10 or 12). It could be beautiful as anything Malick has ever done, but too weird for AMPAS.
Which movie am I greatly underestimating? My Week With Marilyn.
I get your arguments, but I think the film's sucess will lay on Michelle's shoulder. If she pulls it off (and i think she will) the movie will go big. Simon Curtis could be a spoiler in directing (the similarities with Hooper - british, previous tv director etc..) are kinda scary.
Where am I Goldilocks "just right"? A Dangerous Method
It'll have enough fans for a Picture placement and the acting trio should make some noise too.
Which actress am I underestimating? Viola Davis in supporting.
I was glad you chose Octavia, because I too think she'll be wonderful and very oscar-bait in The Help, but I can't imagine Davis not getting in if Octavia does. Davis' has massive screentime (she could go lead if she wanted) and Doubt is still fresh on voters' minds. I'm going as far as saying she'll win, it's the kinda of thing made for her as an actress.
That's it ;)
Nathaniel- "A Dangerous Mind." Yikes. Given that it's my pick, you'd think I could type it correctly.
I am keeping my fingers crossed for Glenn Close, I WANT HER TO WIN SOOO BAD! She is so overdue! And if she doesn't get a nomination for Best Actress she should get one for screenplay, because really Albert Nobbs is a good story, the story IS THERE but the director..meh. The movie might be a flop too but I REALLY want Close to win.
John, even with the expansion of the character, I don't think Bullock will get it in the leading category -This would be another Cotillard's Nine-. If I remember, Bullock's role is only in a third part of the film. But Bullock could be an important contender in the supporting category. Daldry behind + Suffering mother + Deglam + Good response + Possible dark horse for the season.
I will expect the reaction for "The Door". If Helen Mirren made it for "The Last Station", this would be an actressing role...
I'll just echo the hopes for Yeoh and the belief that Weisz could sneak in. No predictions because I haven't really been paying as much attention as I could be but some thoughts..
1. Michelle Williams seems like a gimme, doesn't it? She starts the year off with indie-indie work (demonstrating her committment to her craft and determination to chart her own course), add a small, Hollywood-indie comedy (Take this Waltz was a pretty highly acclaimed screenplay doing the circulation) and then doing her Hollywood recreation/bait project. Taking on a legend is definitely risky, and one as iconic as Marilyn even moreso. But much like Blanchett-as-Hepburn, the talent is definitely there.
2. Given that Phyllidia Lloyd misdirected the shit out of Mamma Mia (according to everyone), I wonder just how bad the Thatcher film will be.
3. Right now, I think it'll be War Horse vs Hugo Cabret for the big title.
4. Last year, the foreign actresses were SO GOOD that it was a virtual crime that none got nominated. Hopefully a non-English language film will be able to garner some traction.
My actress predictions:
1. Meryl Streep - for all the obvious reasons
2. Emma Stone - hot newcomer who people are liking already. She's this year's Jennifer Lawrence, but people already know her from other films. Plus, she's in the new Spider-man, and the Academy wants to nominate stars and future stars like her.
3. Kirsten Dunst - I would never have guessed I'd be predicting a von Trier to score a nomination this early, but Melancholia seems like his most approachable picture yet, she's likeable, famous, and capable of turning out an excellent performance. She's this year's Natalie Portman, but she won't win. Sorry, Meryl Streep already has her speech written.
4. Glenn Close - It's been too long and the role is interesting. She should be able to squeeze in on that alone assuming the film is generally well received. Think The Last Station a few years back.
5. Michelle Williams - I'm extremely iffy for this choice. She was just nominated, and most of the focus for that nomination went towards Ryan Gosling not being nominated. But still, she's young and has it in her to pull off a great performance.
Wildcards:
6. Jodie Foster - She very well might sneak in, but it's hard for unlikable characters to get in lead.
7. Charlotte Rampling - If Melancholia takes off, the attention from that picture may well put some focus on her leading work her. She's also way long overdue for a nomination.
8. Rooney Mara - December release date for an adaptation from a popular book by David Fincher. This sounds like a sure thing... but we just had the original movie last year and it will be hard for people to love this one so much more that it will score a nod for Mara.
9. Elizabeth Olson - Let's wait and see
10. Felicity Jones - Let's wait and see
Also, regarding best picture, though there's no chance in hell of it happening, I will go on the record now and predict Scream 4. That way, should by the grace of God a nomination happen, I will have correctly predicted so.
I don't see why many are predicting The Help...granted, I've never read the book (my mother LOVES it...which is honestly what worries me)...I'm getting an Eat Pray Love vibe from the film...a moderately successful crowd-pleaser that attracts a legion of older female fans, but nothing particularly Oscar worthy. Isn't Disney releasing it? I don't know, it's just not sitting well with me. But, hey, if The Blind Side can make it in, I guess anything is game.
As far as Super 8, I could see many tech noms, but it doesn't seem like a best-picture nominee...and it sure as hell isn't if Hugo Cabret (Scorsese) and War Horse (Spielberg) are massive commercial and critical successes...there's no way the Academy will honor three blockbusters that are (somewhat) in the same genre.
I bet The Ides of March will fair well with the Academy...I could see another directing nod for Clooney with nominations for Gosling (they MAJORLY snubbed him this past year) and P. Seymour Hoffman...and wouldn't it be beyond awesome if Marisa Tomei got another worthy Oscar nomination? Would make my year.
Nathaniel I'm interested in knowing why you didn't predict Dunst. Is it because it's von Trier and the material is dark, etc, or you just forgot? Von Trier already scored a nomination for Emily Watson and Björk could've gotten one two, I think it could very well happen this time.
Lucky -- it's basically because Von Trier doesnt' seem to interest them. He had a very short window in terms of mainstream interest and Oscar is a mainstream thing no matter how much people complain about it being "elitist"
Ooh, I forgot Sandra Bullock! I totally think if she nails this role she could get nominated..."see, she CAN act! Here's a nom to reassure you :)."
Ya know? Haha. Possibly supporting though.
It's Extremely loud and incredibly close, not uncomfortably. Or is it a new title for the film version?
BEST ACTOR:
I could not find where to post this specifically for the Best Actor Category.
I'm not talking about the main lineup, but Ed Harris should be there somewhere. I saw the trailer for "That's What I Am" on the imdb. Harris plays an inspirational teacher... shades of Robin Williams in ""The Dead Poet's Society," Robert Donat and Peter O'Toole as Mr. Chips, Richard Dreyfus in "Mr. Holland's Opus" and Edward James Olmos for "Stand and Deliver," among others.
By the way, if he gets in he may well carry Amy Madigan with him as Best Supporting Actress. Her roles seems pretty intense.