April Foolish Predictions Complete: Actress & Picture
Sunday, April 10, 2011 at 10:20PM So my "April Foolish" Oscar Predictions are now complete. I rejiggered two tech predictions once I finally decided on my ten Best Pictures but honestly, any combo of the top 20 listed seems just as plausible as any other so long as the obvious get, War Horse, is there. (It's practically as obvious as The King's Speech was a year out.) We won't know until January how well I did but it's exciting this far out when anything seems possible yes?
BEST PICTURE
I didn't expect to get so fully behind Super 8 but sometimes your own predictions surprise you once you have to work every category out. My wishful thinking pick is David Cronenberg's psychoanalytic period drama A Dangerous Method which is a big old question mark for a number of reasons. But my hunch is that Viggo Mortensen, Michael Fassbender and Keira Knightley will all bring it which will heat up the material which is already sexual conceptually speaking since it's about Freud and Jung. But Cronenberg has never been to the Academy's liking so I'm probably wrong. My wildcard guess -- as in something that's not an obvious contender -- is Oren Moverman's Rampart, a police corruption drama. This film will have the same challenge as My Week With Marilyn in that it will only win real Oscar traction if it feels much larger or more mythic than a telefilm on the same material since both cover topics that have been dramatized on television many times: cop dramas and Marilyn Monroe respectively. My guess for Smallest Nomination Tally But still Best Pic competitor is We Bought a Zoo (just a hunch). My guess for Film With Most Noms That Doesn't Get Nominated For Best Picture (whew) which was Alice in Wonderland last year and Nine the year before (i think?) is The Adventures of TinTin: The Secret of the Unicorn but if I'm wrong on that, I feel certain it'll be Hugo Cabret.
QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Which film am I greatly overestimating?
Which movie am I greatly underestimating?
Where am I Goldilocks "just right"?
I'll admit I had NO idea what to make of Moneyball. You?
BEST ACTRESS
Elizabeth Olsen and Felicity Jones were the twin Sundance bids for this category in January and we know how last year and the year before (Bening & Lawrence, Mulligan & Sidibe) turned out: all were nominated. But in a fit of bravery, I'm not predicting either of them.
I'm going with a mostly Previous Nominees lineup. How do you deny Michelle Williams, Glenn Close or Keira Knightley for example this far ahead with juicy roles? As for never-nominated people, I'm totally curious to see what happens with Charlotte Rampling's film The Eye of the Storm.
ACTRESSY QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Anyone think they'll pass on Meryl Streep this year? (I perversely wanted to predict it.)
Which actress am I underestimating?
Could you see Williams winning for Marilyn?
Note to New Readers
The navigation bar up-top has pull down menus for each Oscar charts or you can click on the Prediction Index and investigate from there. Join in the conversation!
Reader Comments (81)
What about Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia?
Although I agree with your top 3 Actress predictions, I think Knightley will go supporting and Mara will not get as much traction as we might expect. Instad, I'd say Felicity Jones is kind of a sure thing, in the Lawrence-Mulligan kinda way. The fifth spot I'd say goes to Jodie Foster or someone completely unexpected (like Bullock in 2009)
Oh, yeah. Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia. Just the other day I was thinking that if Charlotte Gainsbourg had been a big American star, she would've totally gotten nominated for Antichrist. I expect Dunst to get in (fifth spot), there'll be a lot of talk about that film anyways.
After reading "The Help," I think Viola Davis belongs in this category. She's the film's central character and has a more significant transformation than that of Emma Stone's role.
1) Meryl Streep: because the owe her 2/3 Oscars and they know it, she's Meryl Streep as you said, I cannot imagine her not being nominated considering that she's playing someone as big as Thatcher + English accent. I hope they finish the movie in time!
2) Michelle Williams: portraying Marylin Monroe + the Harvey Weinstein propaganda again. I mean, he pulled off an Oscar nomination for her for the little known "Blue Valentine".
3) Glenn Glose: it's been a long time and it involves "transformation" lol - I think they'll really embrace this one even if the film is not very good.
4) Jodie Foster: the film has the most Oscar-y cast ever + again, it's been a long time
5) Rooney Mara: the young gun + that perfect late December release + a big budget film + David Fincher
- ahh I wanna see Emily Watson get a nomination for "Oranges and Sunshine" :(
so we no longer post our Actress predictions for a contest?
oh, Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia, yes, a famous actress that they might want to nominate! And the film looks really normal for a Lars Von Trier production, so... who knows?
My ridiculously early two-year forecast: Keira Knightley gets nominated for A Dangerous Method, does not win, and then uses the nomination as momentum to take the prize in 2012 for Anna Karenina (which would also be her third nomination, and her third film with director Joe Wright). That's what her countryman Colin Firth did in 2009/2010.
Not really on topic (sorry), but still awards related, will you post something about the German Film Awards, Nathaniel? I still can't get over the yumminess that is the Best Actor lineup
of course Meryl will be nominated. bite your tongue, Nathaniel.
I'm very excited for Meryl to win a slew of early awards- maybe even a Globe- for Iron Lady only to be swept away again by some younger starlet.
No seriously. I'm looking forward to the hype that will surround her- and that some people will fool themselves into thinking she can win- only for the inevitable defeat. I've learned to take her losses in stride at this point. :)
Michelle Williams, she was brilliant in Blue Valentine and I think she will nail this performance
Glenn Close, she's overdue & Meryl Streep, because she is Meryl Streep.
Then I'm hoping for Tilda Swinton, if you've seen Io sono l'amore you get why and maybe a fresh face like Elizabeth Olsen or Felicity Jones or maybe even Emma Stone.
Streep has the most buzz at this point. Should win for Iron Lady, Great Hope or August...
Michelle Williams has none of the curves of Marilyn Monroe. I guess they will just stuff her bra and give her a butt enhancement..
Glenn Close is just creepy as a woman or a man...
it's still my great desire that everyone will drop out of GREAT HOPE SPRINGS and then they'll recast the whole thing with Pfeiffer & Bridges reunited at last. I would die. (a happy death)
Ok this is how I see it of course they will nominate both Glenn & Meryl hopefully the race will be between them and not a young scarlet I can see Michell Williams get that third spot and maybe the last two spots will go to a up-coming actress (Olsen, Jones, Mara, Oduye) I dont see Emma getting in a all and Kiera might go supporting and poor Tilda all I can say.
Yay! Good work!
My pics:
1. J. Edgar
2. War Horse
3. The Descendants
4. On the Road
5. Albert Nobbs
6. The Help
7. A Dangerous Method
8. Hugo Cabret
9. The Ides of March
10. The Tree of Life
Director:
1. Eastwood
2. Spielberg
3. Payne
4. Salles
5. Scorsese
6. Malick
7. Cronenberg
8. Polanski
9. Almodovar
10. R. Garcia
I think that the winner will be among Streep, Close and Williams though I can easily see Close not getting nominated.
You don't think Ronan has a chance with Hanna or Violet And Daisy?
I don't see Contagion getting in even if it's good.
Can you imagine Streep and Foster fighting for THE THIRD and Foster winning? Ha. So may people would kill themselves, myself included. OK I kind of kid.
Nathaniel: Carnage has a distributor now: http://www.heyuguys.co.uk/2011/04/09/sony-pictures-classics-acquires-roman-polanskis-carnage/
Also, I love how you say "Oscar keeps ignoring him" re:Tilda. I mean, she really is both :p
Which film am I greatly overestimating? :: Hugo Cabret - I don't see it being an Oscar-type movie. I'm also predicting Super 8 for a BP nomination, but the directing nod seems unlikely.
Which movie am I greatly underestimating? :: The Ides of March - I see it getting in for Picture, Director, Actor, and maybe Supporting Actress. Also Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy for Picture.
Where am I Goldilocks "just right"? :: A Dangerous Method, hopefully. J. Edgar.
What's weird? :: The Tree of Life everywhere, but no Brad Pitt. Rooney Mara in but no Picture or Director nod for Tattoo (I think it will have to be all or none).
What I have no idea about :: Carnage and My Week With Marilyn.
Anyone think they'll pass on Meryl Streep this year? :: It's certainly possible, but I'll wait for reviews until I stop predicting her. ;) Then again, they don't always go for the 'political' Streep.
Which actress am I underestimating? :: Elizabeth Olsen; I think she has the newbie spot more secure than Mara.
Could you see Williams winning for Marilyn? :: Here's how I see this playing out: Streep won't win because the movie quite frankly is going to get fairly trashed (I think she will win next year for August: Osage County). If Close is nominated, no matter what I think she'll win. If Williams is nominated AND Close isn't, I think Williams will win. However, here's my quandary: I think it's very possible that both Williams and Close will *not* be nominated. Close because her movies sounds too low-budget and could easily bomb; Williams because there's a great possibility she won't be able to pull this off. We've never seen Williams do mimicry, and this will be doubly challenging because she's also play against type. I think a lot of people just won't be able to see her as 'Monroe'. Good performance, not embarrassing - sure. Monroe? Possibly not.
One other thing :: you only have five 'newbie' nominations. I think the average is more likely between 7-9.
My predictions for Best Actress:
-Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
-Elizabeth Olsen, MMMM
-Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
-Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
-????? Foster, Dunst, Close, & Williams all seem like strong possibilities.
I think the Academy is ready to nominate Cronenberg. This will be his third glossy film in a row. They did nominate Viggo for Eastern Promises and A Dangerous Method seems right up their alley. How will they be able to resist a Period Picture about Real People with Keira Knightley!
Maybe Pfeiffer and Bridges can reunite in Dark Shawdows and put a vampire spin on their relationship..
I think you are underestimating Melancholia (at least I hope...), with Dunst, Gainsbourg, and Rampling possibly being in play. Maybe I'm just a little too excited for it though (I feel like this film was made for me), since they don't often go for Lars von Trier.
Right now I'm thinking it'll shake up like this:
1. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
-Hilary Swank and Felicity Huffman have proven that if an actress plays the transgender card, her film doesn't need to be a big hit for the performance to be a major contender. And she's Glenn Close. I don't doubt that Albert Nobbs will remind them how much they loved her. The Shield and Damages have proven to be quite a comeback for her on the small screen, and this is the first major film project she's had in a long time that could speak to Oscar.
2. Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
-It's a plum role, but I just don't get the vibe that it's something they'll want to reward her for. Too light maybe? I just get the feeling that Oscar will wait until she gets a really juicy dramatic part. Or will she have more of a Julianne Moore trajectory, always coming up just short?
3. Jodie Foster (Carnage)
-If any of their quartet makes it in, it's Foster. It's the best role of the four, and Marcia Gay Harden won the Tony in a landslide. Though people are saying the role is unlikeable, you really begin to cheer for her in unexpected ways. If the film is embraced at all, she's in, no doubt.
4. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
-Margaret Thatcher is everything Oscar could possibly want from an actress. Biopic/Mimicry? Check. Accent? Check. British? Check. The fact that she's Meryl Streep just puts it over. One thing that has me thinking is this: does Oscar look at what you have coming up next? If so, "Oh, we'll just give Meryl hers next year for August: Osage County" is entirely likely, but I don't know how that factors in, if it does at all.
5. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
-Since her 2007 win, she's had two major star vehicles in Julia and I Am Love that, with a little more push, could have gotten her nominated. This slightly more mainstream film could also be Oscar's way of recognizing those triumphs. I do think this 5th slot is pretty much up in the air, though.
I think we've been sort of overestimating Sundance in the Best Actress race. Annette Bening would've been nominated anyway. Though in independent films, Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe both had films that had serious exposure anyway, especially with the Oprah push for Precious. The only "true" Sundance player has been Jennifer Lawrence. I just don't think they're the sure things people think they are.
I think Swinton could break through into this pack. Surely there must be some Oscar afterglow for her? Recognition that they missed her in Julia? Or something.
I think Williams has at least a nomination in the bag. Blue Valentine afterglow, plus three films coming out this year. Unless the film is bad, of course.
Just to answer your questions...
1) It's quite difficult they would pass on Meryl this year, she's got a perfect award-baity role! My only fear is about the film itself, it could be a mess, but Meryl could still be nominated for an average film (it happened in the past). And if there are no strong contenders for Best Actress, this could even be the year she wins her third, long-awaited statuette... who knows?
2) I don't know... maybe Felicity Jones or Jodie Foster? But I could easily see both of them not being nominated (although Marcia Gay Harden won a Tony for Foster's role in Carnage). On the other hand, it would be great to see Streep, Foster and Close all up for Best Actress... just like 1988!
3) Maybe... if the film is really good and if her performance is at the same level of her past work. If she doesn't get strong reviews, I suspect they would pass on her to award a much overdue lady, like Streep or Close.
In the end, the big question mark is Albert Nobbs... will the film be a decent hit or a commercial flop? And will Close's role be showy enough to get Glenn another shot for an Oscar? If she is nominated (a real comeback story), after 23 years, she'll be a very serious threat for the Oscar! But if Albert Nobbs doesn't get any traction, she could be ignored. It's really a hit or miss in my opinion... but I'm crossing my fingers for Close - although I'm afraid it'll be quite difficult for her to find attention in the Best Actress race, where they clearly prefer young actresses and with Meryl Streep who's yet taking the "veteran spot".
On Foster: they love her.
They want her, even if the performance is not that great (I love her and I doubt it'll be - not her style at all) - see Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd. She is in.
In this April predicitions, I always try to anticipate foreign surprises, because they always happen in leading categories (Bardem, Cruz, Cotillard, Bardem, Benigni, Depardieu, Troisi, Montenegro, Deneuve) and we're never ready. Any hints?
I love Michelle Williams and if she pulled it off I'd be happy... but that still of her as Monroe doesn't exactly inspire confidence. She really doesn't look or feel anything like her there to me. Oh well. If it fails it'll probably at least be an intereting failure.
Binoche would be a viable alternative if the movie were released last year. It seems she won her prize in Cannes a long time ago. There won't be buzz.
I would LOV E to see Rachel Harris in the BA lineup, great in Fat Actress and For Your Consideration... a great working actress due some recgonition!
I would LOVE to see Rachel Harris in the BA lineup! A great working actress deserving of some recognition (so funny in Fat Actress and For Your Consideratioj)
Williams will have an uphill battle to make her Marilyn work, because she is not sexy at all. Marilyn had a natural charisma, she was naturally sexy. When Williams has to deal with sex in her movies, it's usually in gritty, joyless style. It may be intense, but it's not like she is having any fun. Williams is a very strong dramatic actress, but I am not sure she can deliver light now. Of course I know MM had a lot of issues, but she surely could project this lightness.
oo posted twice... sorry all.. whoops!
I think Knightley will go Supporting or not be nominated at all. She may have to wait until Next year for Anna Karenina.
Michelle will probably garner more traction for Take This Waltz. It's not that I don't trust Michelle's portrayal of Monroe, I trust Sarah Polley's direction a bit more.
Notice that neither A Dangerous Method or Take This Waltz have distributors yet.
Meryl will get in even if the movie is awful.
I see Close winning, if the movie is good enough.
As for your questions
Which film am I greatly overestimating? A Dangerous Method, I see too many people predicting this, Will this be the overhyped film of the year that fails? I hope Not. Even if it's good, it's not like Cronenberg has a great traction with the Academy.
Which movie am I greatly underestimating?
Hmmm, Maybe one of those small indie films, Take Shelter or Pariah.
Where am I Goldilocks "just right"?
Super 8 hopefully
I'll admit I had NO idea what to make of Moneyball. You?
I'm with you.
I think my feelings are going to get hurt this year if Glenn Close isn't the Best Actress front runner.
i think you've really underestimated Young Adult.
Jason Reitman has been nominated twice for picture/director.
Diablo Cody won for her collaboration with him.
Charlize Theron has had luck with the academy.
and they're gonna need something lighter like Up in the Air ot TKAA in the top ten.
My predictions:
Again, I think many people are overestimated David Cronenberg. First, he's not exactly beloved by AMPAS. Second, the prior film adapted for a play who directed was M. Butterfly (A complete failure) and third I'm affraid for the snub in Cannes. Also, I don't think Knightley will win (If she might be nominated as a supporting actress) for this or for Anna Karerina -I know, she was the surprise by the 2005 oscars, but she failed as returning twice (Even when "Atonement" was a BP nom)- She's respected but not beloved. Well, I could be wrong, but I don't see ADM playing at the same field like Black Swan did it...
My Best Actress predictions:
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady:Only if the film is a complete mess, I think she has the biggest chances of victory this time. Possible BP nominee (Like Kate Winslet and Sandra Bullock) + Real character (And big one) + A respected writer (Abi Morgan, which also wrote Shame) + British bloc + A bigger vox populi supporting her + Box office draw. Maybe the only question is the director... Yes, she made Mamma Mia!, but at least is the most succesful british production at box office at history and Lloyd is a TONY nominee for "Mary Stuart". I think, with the right cards, it is her time...
2. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marylin: If Colin Firth's formula might work, Williams would be the next. But again, it's 50/50... If it's a hit, she's Streep's biggest thread
3. Jodie Foster, Carnage: Her potential comeback for her. The role is excellent and Polanski is a master directing his actors. Also SPC is good promoting the actresses, especially in this category (Mulligan, Mirren, Hathaway, Leo, Cruz, Bening, Thompson)
4. The young Starlett: Alex is right, the only actress who survived her buzz since Sundance without the buzz of the film was Amy Adams for "Junebug", so I don't think Felicity Jones will be a strong contender (BTW, she would be the british spot). Olsen and Mara are competing themselves. If TGWTDT is a complete hit, Mara will win...
5. Possible surprise: I think Albert Nobbs needs to be acclaimed as a whole. Alex, just a point: At Huffman case, she was helped by the fact that 2005 was AWFUL in tearms of leading actresses contenders. The only viable contender for sustitution was Zhang for "memoirs of a Geisha". Also, she's the only big push for Harvey Weinstein in this year. So I don't considerate Close as a sure thing yet...
-Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia: Reports from Cannes said "Melancholia" is the most accesible film for Trier...
-Anne Hathaway, One Day: She has bigger competition with the other Focus Features gals (wasikowska's Jane Eyre and Ronan's Hanna after the success of both films), but One Day is a beloved best seller with many dramatic points and her character is more mature that Jenny Miller. Also the girl has a blockbuster behind her. Also, it would be ironical another reunion with Hathaway-Streep also Emma as critic of Thatcher's government
-Juliette Binoche, Copie Conforme: Cal Roth is right, also IFC is awful making campaigns.
-Catherine Deneuve, Potiche: The film is too "light", but right now Deneuve is having an excellent reception as a retrospective memoir in LA with the premiere of the film. Plus: Excellent reviews for her performance. Also, with the political background (Dilma Rousseff, Martine Aubry...) could be on favour.
-Asian spot?: With Michelle Yeoh, Gong Li and Bingbing Li as possible spoilers, but Yeoh has the most advantage: Real life charcater + Political activism + Search of freedom
OH, yes I forgot Theron... I heard mixed responses for the screenplay, and many people said her Marvis is like a Margot 2.0, but Reitman is 2/3 by Oscars, so she's in the running
It's not confirmed, but I've heard rumblings about Focus Features distributing A Dangerous Method in the US. I think they at least have an option for it. It makes sense - they don't have any other fall/Oscar movies.
Keira missing for Atonement doesn't really have anything to do with her chances this year or next year - there are many instances where actors miss out one year even though their performances were well-reviewed and then are nominated later on.
@SVG "How will they be able to resist a Period Picture about Real People with Keira Knightley!"?
The same way they did with The Duchess
...and The Edge of Love.
I'd say that I think 2005's Oscar line-up left much to be desired, but the field before nominations wasn't half bad. Joan Allen for The Upside of Anger, Laura Linney for The Squid and the Whale, Maria Bello for A History of Violence, Gwyneth Paltrow for Proof, and Juliette Binoche for Cache all gave excellent performances that went largely ignored come nomination morning.
Here's why I like "Moneyball" for a Best Picture nod -
The source material is sound. Michael Lewis is a dry wit who has the talent to make even the most impenetrable material fascinating and fun (read "Liar's Poker" for a look at the Wall Street meltdown of the late 80's...and its prescient take on the psychology that would lead to the financial disaster of the last three years.) Adapting the story of computer modelling of baseball drafts might be a long shot for Best Picture consideration if Aaron Sorkin had not done the same with similarly themed material in "The Social Network" last year - and he is on board for this adaptation as well, along with multiple Oscar nominee Steve Zaillian. BP nominees generally need a great script as a foundation, and this has all the tools for one.
Bennett Miller directs Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Miller directed Hoffman to his Oscar for "Capote" and was nominated himself for directing.) Brad Pitt as Billy Beane will grab substantial attention for the film, so it will get seen by the AMPAS membership. It is also the kind of film that is well poised to take advantage of a September release to build momentum and get traction late from a timely screener delivery (I suspect that strategy helped "Winter's Bone" quite a bit last year.) If the movie delivers at the high level of which the participants are capable, I cannot see it missing for an Adapted Screenplay nomination, Director, and possibly more than one Performance nod. That combination of nominations would be virtually 'can't miss' for a Best Picture nomination as well.
Anon -- i can't imagine there's an Asian post since no Asian actress has ever been nominated for Best Actress BUT I WISH THERE WAS ;)
Alex -- agreed. 2005 was not a bad year at all. It's just that Oscar totally biffed it.
I think if one of the Sundance girls gets in, Olsen has a better shot because of the sister factor. Idk, I find it really interesting. "Oh wow, they have a sister who's been living in their shadow this whole time...and she can act! Give her some recognition!"
I hope hope hope hope hope hope hope hope hope hope hope hope hope hope Kirsten Dunst gets nominated. Did I mention that I hope Kirstend Dunst gets nominated?
Honestly I'm over Meryl right now. This looks like a strong actress year and she's gonna take up a spot for some BS mimicry...if that happens, Idk, it will not sit well with me, that's for sure.
Right now, I think the only nomination lock is Michelle Williams.
Nat,
I am definitely getting an undercurrent feeling this year, so far, that you are cooling on Streep ... not just this piece????
I have high expectation or Keira to be nominated. If being campaigned in supporting is what it takes for her to win this year, than I’m all for it.
Excuse me your highness, but I think that Michelle Williams have been working her ass off and I have a huge hunch she will be uh-mazing. She’s my number one choice this year for Best Actress.
Rick -- it's not that I'm cooling -- she is my all time top 5 since the invention of film (!) it's that her choice in projects or her miscasting or her ease at getting every part when some other people might be better for the part is what makes me kind of tetchy about her. I'm still kinda pissed about August: Osage County. I really love the play but I just don't think she's right for the part.
I guess i'm just sad for all the other amazing 55-75 year-old actresses who are never going to get any lead work since there are so few roles and Streep says yes to all of them. So I guess the solution is that there needs to be more roles so that Streep can't physically do all of them.
also i am preparing myself in advance for her to win for something boring that anybody could win for (like a mimic job) when they had such a great opportunity to reward her for doing something only she could have done so brilliantly in The Devil Wears Prada. etcetera :)
WOW. you didn't ask for a whole essay.
Oh and Brendan i'm excited to hear that Viola's role in THE HELP is so large. she's so fun to watch.
I happen to think Streep is a great choice for Violet in August Osage County and look forward to her being brillant in the role.
I know, Nath... But I said the "dream" for having an Asian actress nominated in this category. I want to believe Yeoh will be the surprise of the season. She's recognizable by American Audiences and Hollywood, she plays a international hero and social fighter and the story is an uphill of motivation. I hope so.
Good response Danielle, but like Lucky said, Keira was mentioned in few times as a sure nominee and even the winner and then nothing. My feeling around this: Keira needs outstading raves for her performance. I don't think she has the support of the british spot (Actually most of her louded detractors are british), she hasn't the "it" feeling as Mulligan is having right now in both sides of the Atlantic, she hasn't the status for being overdue or even a defense like Portman had it last year and having excellent PR like Cotillard. I wouldn't be surprised if Fassbender will be the only nomination for the cast
I really like the chances of "A Dangerous Mind" to bag the Oscar. If I hadn't convinced myself that this will finally be the year that the Oscars reward Terrence Malick (wishful thinking most likely), it would be my BP pick. Sure, the Academy hasn't really gone for Cronenberg, but he has a lot of good karma-- it seems like a lot of people value his work-- and it stars two people the Academy likes and one they're surely going to like. Cronenberg is bound to get in there eventually and a film this compact and baity (subject and mood aside, it reminds me of The King's Speech) might be his way to break into the BP and Director line-up.
Speaking of, how amazing are the possibilities for this year's Director category!?! Malick, Cronenberg, Eastwood, Spielberg, and Payne are my guesses, but there's also Sorcese, Fincher, Almodovar, Crowe, Salles, Reitman, Miller, Clooney, and even Madonna, with the possibility of Polanski and Daldry. HUGE names putting out work this year. One has to wonder where Ron Howard is...