Predictions in Actressing: Few Locks, Many New Variables
Friday, October 5, 2012 at 8:00PM 
It's entirely redundant to tell you that Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress are The Film Experience's favorite Oscar categories. This year's field continues to feel slippery, amorphous, unknowable which is... great. It should be hard to pin down the Oscar race before films have been widely seen and release dates have fully settled. The charts this month are quite shuffled so I hope you'll devour them.
ACTRESS Most pundits have assumed since the very beginning that Cotillard and Wallis were locked up done deals but I'm actually still not comfortable inking either of them in. They could happen, sure, but there are so many contenders and no one beyond Jennifer Lawrence (having one of those mega years that's impossible to deny) has cemented a position here. Especially with all the movement. Even one of these smaller films with rising stars (Olsen, Winstead, Fanning) could happen theoretically or at least siphon key votes if audiences and critics are kind and their campaign is strong.
We should note that little Quvenzhané Wallis has a new problem beyond her very young age in that SAG won't be nominating her (declaring the cast ineligible). Cotillard also has a significant problem in that she isn't the only reknowned actress killing it in a subtitled drama. Emmanuelle Riva anyone? The Hiroshima Mon Amour star is a powerhouse in a very difficult role in Amour. I've just seen the movie so perhaps it's wishful thinking but this is very moving work.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS The big new question mark for me is whether biopic mimicry -- Scarlett Johansson doing Janet Leigh's arched brow Psycho tics -- will finally win her Oscar attention after her breakthrough early misses nine years ago (Girl with the Pearl Earring and Lost in Translation... and to a lesser extent her Woody Allen hussy in Match Point). She stopped being an actress for awhile moving straight to über celebrity but after her Tony-winning run on Broadway and renewed vigor in her filmography, this could be the year. Or will various Psycho co-stars steal the spotlight. It's worth noting that Toni Collette can steal spotlights from anyone anywhere... and if her Hitchcock assistant role has a key scene or two that she can wow in, watch out! (That's a mighty big "if" of course in a film with stars this big playing famous Hollywood icons.)
I should also note that though I'm on the record as no fan of Helen Hunt's 90s Oscar win, I found her work in The Sessions to be very strong. To me it's unquestionably a leading role (it wouldn't be if we didn't spend time with her outside of the titular sessions but we do, making this a lopsided duet) and I'm a bit curious as to why Fox Searchlight so adamantly settled on a supporting campaign so early given that a lead Actress nod still doesn't seem unattainable for this previous winner.
Reader Comments (56)
I am loving your Maggie devotion but I think she'll be in supporting for TBEMG to be honest.
I see it being Lawrence, Mirren, Cotillard, Watts and one of Riva or Wallis. The academy likes the young, and the beautiful PLUS Maggie never shows up and we all know while they're not whores like the globes, they like their stars to be there.
Supp. Actress is way more interesting this year, loving it. Hathaway, Adams, Smith, Hunt & Johannson would be my current predictions, but it really could be out of about 12 competitors.
AND everyone says best actress is weak this year, I don't see it that way, I see it as being far more interesting than years past, as 4 slots are wide open, as opposed to the past few when only one or two have been open *Charlize - Young Adult* tears up. Its not the weakness of the actresses, its a year of subtelty, foreign work and under-the-radar films, which can never be a bad thing :)
I don't think "Amour" will do well at all. I just think it'll be too obscure for the voters to really grab onto and support. And I also think people are jumping on the wagon for "Hitchcock" too quickly. Wait and see what the reviews are and what the trailer looks like before we start predicting it for everything under the sun.
I'm thinking that even if ScarJo is not that great in the movie (and she is very average to me in general), it will be hard to resist her - it's not just mimicry, it's the making of aspect of it all, of a movie with several famous scenes; we'll see her janet leigh between takes, rehearsing, that's appeal enough I think.
Well after that second Lincoln trailer I don't think you can deny that Sally Field will get in. It's been forever since she's been nominated and the role is a juicy one.
Also, why is Amy Adams going down in the predictions? She's a lock.
"AND everyone says best actress is weak this year, I don't see it that way, I see it as being far more interesting than years past, as 4 slots are wide open, as opposed to the past few when only one or two have been open *Charlize - Young Adult* tears up. Its not the weakness of the actresses, its a year of subtelty, foreign work and under-the-radar films, which can never be a bad thing :)"
I'm glad I'm not the only one who hasn't gotten over the Charlize Theron snub last year. What's funny is that last year wasn't even a "strong" year judging by the way the category ended up.. 4 of the 5 actresses nominated shouldn't have even been nominated compared to those who had been left out.
Anyway, I'm hoping this is Adams year. 3 nominations and 0 wins, not cool.
Good post, Nathaniel:
Unfortunally, I agree with you with Cotillard vs. Riva debacle. Cotillard's performance is marvelous, but also Riva's and if I need to put money which french actress will get the Oscar nom, I would say Riva. She has the bigger and most beloved film and the brighter role. I would love to see both of them nominated, but I'm realistic. Even in this case, I tend to think if Riva is nominated, she could actually win the Oscar -If the film was in english and played by an American/British Oscarless veteran- there won't be any doubt... But I still believe "Amour" will play big and Riva could be part of it.
If that's the case - I hope Cotillard could be nominated by GG/BAFTA and next year with Nightingale... ;)
For Wallis, I think she's in - Even with the SAG obstacle-, she has the buzz, her film is really beloved by the critics -20 100s- and her best ally is Oprah Winfrey -She will make campaign for her-. Also, with Oprah, she could be nominated for a GG in drama -This year is lackuster with real contenders with Streep, Dench, Smith, Lawrence and maybe Mirren in the comedy category- and she could be the only american nominee in that category -After Adams, Davis and Gyllenhaal dismiss-. Finally, yes the HFPA loves the stars, but sometimes they took inspired and indie choices -2000's Javier Bardem; 2001's Tilda Swinton, 2006's Maggie Gyllenhaal, 2010's Jennifer Lawrence-
For supporting actress - It would be interesting if there's a real contender beside Hopkins-Mirren group. Johansson is young with a recent box office and critical -Tony award- sucess playing an icon, but I would love to see Collette returning to the Oscars.
My top ten in each category
BEST ACTRESS:
01. Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
02. Emmanuelle Riiva - Amour
03. Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
04. Naomi Watts - The Impossible
05. Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
----------------------------------
06. Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone
07. Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina
08. Maggie Smith - Quartet
09. Mary Elizabeth Winstead - Smashed
10. Meryl Streep - Hope Springs
I think this could be a classic Oscar lineup: a british thespian and veteran -Mirren-, the critics' favorite -Riva-, the revelation performance -Wallis-, the young starlet and Harvey's card -Lawrence- and the returning nominee -Watts-.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
01. Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
02. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
03. Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
04. Amy Adams - The Master
05. Samantha Barks - Les Misérables
--------------------------------
06. Scarlett Johansson - Hitchcock
07. Helen Hunt - The Sessions
08. Sally Field - Lincoln
09. Toni Collette - Hitchcock
10. Anne Hathaway - The Dark Knight Rises // Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Barks as a first time nominee, Smith as the veteran, Adams as the returning nominee, Chastain with the afterglow nomination and Hathaway as the potential winner. For the 10 spot, it would be between Kidman as the potential critics favorite and Hathaway's recognition for her other performance
That is an older-skewing best actress lineup you currently have. How nice would that be if this does happen.
Is there going to be the biggest age gap between nominees ever? Wallis at 8, Riva in her 80s? And then take JLaw (just 21), Mirren, and someone else (Streep? Streisand? Dench?) and this could probably be the weirdest aged group ever. No one in their 30s, 40s, or even 50s? That'd be crazy.
(AKA if you're looking for some charts to make, Nathaniel...)
I don't know if you see the film Matt, but after comparing both films and performances, "Amour" has the advantage. It's really true is Haneke's most accesible and warmest film. And Riva has "Oscar" moments -The scene of "J'ai mal" could be her Oscar clip. Don't get me wrong, I also love Cotillard's performance, but her performance is more subtle. Again, i would love to see both of them nominated.
Many people would say, "But Cotillard is more famous than Riva...", in 1998, Fernanda Montenegro won most of the critics awards in a year with heavyweights and a smaller film than "Amour". Also, last year, Demian Bichir got the nomination instead Shannon, Gosling, Fassbender and DiCaprio. Also Riva is the most recognizable face of the most famous Resnais' film. And we don't forget "Amour" was the no. 1 film by many people in Telluride in TIFF including Hollywood people -Payne, Dern, Spacek and others-
So you have Jennifer Lawrence, three women over 60 (that age that Academy voters love LOL), and a little girl all nominated for best actress. Do you really think it will end up that way? I know right now Jennifer Lawrence is supposed to be the shoe in, but you've already made her the winner when you place her up against the other four. Everybody knows Oscar loves the hot, young things.
Its not the weakness of the actresses, its a year of subtelty, foreign work and under-the-radar films, which can never be a bad thing :)
I want this stitched on a decorative pillow. So, so true.
I don't see Nicole Kidman being nominated for 'The Paperboy.' I saw this at Tiff, and it's one hot mess of a movie. Sure she's great in it, but it's an over the top sleazy ho role and I just don't see AMPAS nominating her for it. Also, her character isn't really that sympathetic. So 'Ho' + Unsympathetic = no nomination.
I've heard great things about 'Beasts of the Southern Wild' and will try to see it this week-end. Quvenzhane Wallis might be a little powerhouse of an actress, but I also don't see her getting a nomination. Sure AMPAS likes their girls young, but not this young. Even when they do nominate child actors, it's almost always regulated to supporting roles. If by some miracle Wallis gets the nomination, would she even be able to garner enough votes for an actual win? Highly unlikely given that many voters would probably credit her performance to skillful direction and not her innate talent and acting choices. Nominating her would be akin to throwing a vote, I believe. I just don't see AMPAS voters thinking 'this is the role, and now is the time to honor Quvenzhane' particularly as there are other viable candidates to nominate, actresses that are overdue for recognition.
As of now, I still maintain that it's Lawrence for the win and that it's really her race to lose. Yes, I know it's early, what with late in the game films that still have yet to premiere/open (Hitchcock, Django Unchained, Life of Pi...etc). But I still recall the wild enthusiastic cheering and applause that broke out mid-film for Lawrence in 'Silver Linings Playbook' at Tiff and how enraptured the audience was for her character, Tiffany. That plus an interview I saw last night with Bradley Cooper where he discusses that same mid film cheer and applause for Lawrence which took place at a previous screening, and you know that the girl who is playing that other girl that is on fire (i.e. Katniss Everdeen) is generating a buzzing heat that is likely going to take her all the way to the podium come Oscar night.
I have not seen many of these performances yet ...however , I did see Wallis... and I must say the movie was beautiful to watch but I think she was just there and everything happened around her... I do not see the "acting" in her role. Sorry!
I think you're being TOOOO wishful thinking on Maggie Smith. There's NO buzz right now for her. Slots 6-10 have a better shot at being nominated than her I think. Plus, the few critics that've seen her aren't very impressed apart by Collins
I really hope Looper has a stronger awards chance than everyone is originally anticipating. Just so Emily Blunt can have some deserved attention in Supporting Actress.
Searchlight isn't concern with Hunt winning another Actress nomination when her single win in the category is controversial. For an actress with several prizes she has a rep as difficult and unlikable.
Mirren has 4 nominations.
This year is extra depressing. Viola losing it and never coming back ever, ever, ever. Streep could have taken it with Hope Springs since they could have shotgunned it to her now — she may or may not get in to fill a thin line-up.
I want to know what the critics think. Not who's going to win but who they'd choose.
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/oscars-can-anyone-beat-philip-seymour-hoffman-to-best-supporting-actor-20121005
Parker,
If you're an Emily Blunt fan (and really, who isn't?) be on the look out for 'Arthur Newman." I saw AN at Tiff, and she's very very good in it. She co-stars along with Colin Firth in this film, and it's a really enjoyable movie. In it she plays a drifter with "identity issues" that tags along with Firth's character on a road trip. Firth's character is in the midst of a mid-life crisis and is trying to find himself and thus has issues of his own when it comes to self perception...etc. Like all good road movies, it's about people getting lost (both literally and metaphorically) and then trying to find themselves again.
Definitely worth seeing once it eventually opens.
After seeing Silver Linings and Sessions at TIFF, I considered Lawrence supporting and Hunt lead. But campaign wise they flipped - funny that.
It's 2003 all over again, isn't it? How exciting.
Not sure why people keep saying its a weak year for Best Actress. Seems comparable to other years.
If Lawrence gets nominated (she should) she will be the youngest actress in history to get two Best Actress nominations. My only concern with Lawrence is Hollywood's institutional stupidity. You never see the Grammy's miss a chance to annoint a breakout star like Adele or Lady Gaga in their big years. But Hollywood loves to be different. Hopefully this time around it will be smart.
I think people have to stop drinking the Kool-aid regarding Wallis. She's a lovely little girl. But did she learn any lines? Or consciously adopt the manner and mindset of another human being, which is what actors do? Of course not. She was 6/7 years old. What people see on the screen is a director skillfully coaxing natural responses from a little girl. (He would even film her without her being aware that she was being filmed). This is like what Carol Reed did in the classic Fallen Idol. The problem with Beast is the subject matter. It's the type of subject that critics will fall over themselves to like. A perfect analogy is Whale Rider, where the academy foolishly nominated a 13 year old girl in a similarly pandering film. That girl's career went no where, predictably enough. (The youngest legitimate Best Actress performance was Lawrence in Winter's Bone when she was 18 where she actually acted). Nominating such a young girl would be a travesty both to the craft of acting and to the little girl herself.
I think you are underestimating Marion Cotillard and overestimating Maggie Smith in Quartet. From the reviews I've read, Pauline Collins was supposedly best in show, and Smith may be nominated in the supporting category for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. I believe Cotillard is in, and I don't see why Riva can't get in either seeing how sparse the lead actress category is. I think both ladies will receive the bulk of best actress critics prizes, which will boost their momentum. And, come on, the drum is beating for Cotillard after several years of very strong post-Oscar work. She deserves it.
I think if Helen Mirren can get in for The Last Station (and knock out Tilda Swinton and Abbie Cornish, to boot), then she will have no problem with Hitchcock. I also share your reservations about Naomi Watts in The Impossible; some great, meaty emotional scenes but there's not really a character arc and the film isn't entirely focused on her. As far as Wallis, I somewhat share the opinion of Winston in that her performance really is due to the director. Frankly, I thought the acting was the weakest part of the film (and I really enjoyed it overall). I think she could get nominated, but it's no sure thing like everyone is assuming.
I'd my predictions are
1) Lawrence
2) Cotillard
3) Mirren
4) Riva
5) Watts
Followed by
6) Wallis
7) Knightley
8) Streep
9) Fanning
10) Winstead
winston stop being a snob. a performance is a performance. everything on that screen counts, regardless of the method. you're talking about theater, this is film . she is completely worthy if the performance is great and is among the best of the year. children are smarter and more capable than you think.
Honestly it's impossible for Marion Cotillard to not be nominated.
First, she delivers the strongest performance of the year so far. She has been totally ignored by the academy for previous work ( "Public Enemies", "Nine", "Inception", "Midnight in Paris" all Oscar worthy).
I would be shocked if Jennifer Lawrence gets her second nomination at 22 when we all know she started acting in 2006 and has only 3 good movies on her filmography and she has worked with only two good directors (David O.Russel and Matthew V). Compare to Marion, for example, who worked with some of the best directors of our generation (Woody Allen, Christopher Nolan, James Gray, Jacques Audiard, John Cameron Mitchel, David Lynch, Michael Mann, Tim Burton, Jean Pierre Jeunet or Rob Marshall, Luc Besson, Soderberg, Ridley Scott...
It would be wrong to give Jennifer Lawrence a second nomination before Marion when you watch their respective past roles and their body of work. She is MUCH better in "Winter's Bone" and her character is 50 times smaller in "The silver linings playbook".
Marion appears at least 1h30 on screen while J.Lawrence appears less than hour. Marion has multiple very strong sex scenes + no makeup + no legs + lots of crying + nudity + Anger + she has one of the most expressive role ever written for an actress. Lots of critics argue that's her best performance so far.
Oh and remember last year, Kristen Dunst won the palme d'or for best actress and two month later everybody had already forgotten her. She wasn't praised by critics at the time. Marion didn't got the palme d'or (Who remember their names now? The two woman from "Beyond the Hills") but she got raves and 6 month later she's still very present in 95% of Oscars lists and talks. The academy voters doesn't only vote because of what they think is the best performance but as an everything. I think it's gonna be:
1 Marion Cotillard - "Rust & Bone" WIN
2 Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"
3 Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
4 Emmanuel Riva - "Amour"
5 Kiera Knightley - "Anna Karenina"
I think people forget the academy's average age was officially 54 in 2011.
MIKA -- i'd eat my shoes if Marion wins. It is just not going to happen. I *love* Audiard films but it's impossible (for me at least) to imagine an Audiard film being that embraced by the Academy at this juncture in his career. He needs to have the kind of rep that makes them embarrassed to not respond to his movies (like, oh, Michael Haneke) in order for the huge embrace. and i think a lead acting oscar for a difficult film is a huge embrace for a foreign film (especially one that's *not* a traditional biopic!)
it's very possible for Marion not to be nominated. citing being ignored for strong work is a strange way to say "she can't be ignored for strong work!" :) but I get what you're saying about momentum. I really liked her in NINE myself (definitely deserved the nomination over Cruz)
EVERYONE -- i agree that I'm overestimating Maggie Smith. Sometimes it's hard to let go of early predictions when they seem so good on paper.
WINSTON -- thank you. Not a weak year at all for Best Actress. People love saying that every other year but it's almost never true.
4RTFUL -- you really shouldn't give up hope on Viola Davis so soon. I think she'll be back again. But a win is going to be very difficult for depressing reasons.
I understand MIKA at some point... While I believe it is impossible to Marion Cotillard to win the Oscar for Rust & Bone, I think she has good chances in being nominated. She won't win, she will be lucky if she gets nominated instead of Riva - both SHOULD be nominated, but we all know that it isn't likely to happen.
I think it is unfair to Wallis to not be nominated by SAG Awards just because "Beasts" doesn't feature any "professional actor" - once you deliver a good performance and once you perform, you are an actor (my opinion) - but I can see producers using this "crime" in order to promote her.
Finally, I'm loving this supporting actress race. Loved Scarlett Johansson in "Lost In Translation" and "Girl With Pearl Earring" and Toni Collette in "Little Miss Sunsine" and in her scene-stealing performance in "The Hours" and I would love to see both nominated (but I'm almost sure it won't happen). Amy Adams may be a lock for a lot of people, but I think "The Master" praise was too focused in Hoffman and Phoenix.
Poppy-I'm not trying to be a snob regarding Wallis. It's just that maybe people need to take a step back and think through nominating such a young girl for this award.
MIka-You honestly think Cotillard deserved an Oscar nomination for Public Enemies? That's hardcore fandom right there. Regarding Rust & Bone, it's "the uplifting story of a young woman tragically confined to a wheelchair who rediscovers the will to live". The cliche meter just exploded. :) You really want to give someone a second Oscar for the paint-by-numbers unlimited? Ok. (Yes I'm being unfair but when I first heard about Rust & Bone that mock Oscar scene from Naked Gun became permanently entrenched in my mind). Anyway you don't want Lawrence to get a nomination because you think it will still thunder from Cotillard. Rest assured that Cotillard will be fine.
@ Mika...
I don't understand the freak-out over Cotillard. She already has an Oscar win! Every good actor has spectacular performances that fail to get recognized by the Academy for one reason or another. That's not the fault of other actors, so to rant about one for the benefit of another seems pointless.
Lawrence is going to get nominated: she's had a blockbuster year wrapped up with the most talked-about performance in one of the most acclaimed films of the year. It's not really up for debate at this point. I also assume you aren't familiar with her earliest film roles if you think she's only been in three that deserved buzz.
Lara -- they do! 2006 also skewed fairly "old" for Best Actress. Not every year is devoted to the younguns though typically the race is late 20s early 30s bonanza
I get your point, i know Marion may not win. But saying her role is " a cliche" can only come from someone who haven't seen "Rust and Bone" because it's the most unfamiliar love story i've seen in years.
I can tell you right now that Marion will win for sure the César and the Golden Globe (Foreign press). A BAFTA nomination is a lock too because they love Jacques audiard (He won the BAFTA for best foreign film and the best film award at BFI in 2008) and Marion (She is kind of one of the biggest European actress and has already a BAFTA) and i'm 99% sure that Audiard will win again at BFI this year.
It's not like I'm a super fan of Cotillard honestly but i hear that Jennifer Lawrence or Wallis are the front runners, it honestly pisses me off because people forget what Oscars are meant for. It's supposed to recognized a UNIQUE and powerful performance that challenge the actor. Very honestly how would've been Marion Cotillard in 'Silver Linings Playbook"? At least as good as Jennifer but How would've been Jennifer in "Rust and Bone"? Certainly not as good as Marion ! You must see both movies to understand. The skills Marion Cotillard uses in "Rust and Bone" are impossible to use if you aren't at least 30 years old because of her maturity and experience. iI Marion would have done the very same movie ten years ago, she would not have been as good as she is right now. Jennifer Lawrence lacks of maturity and sometimes you must admit when a role is bigger just because she is Marion Cotillard and has access to that kind of dream part.
PLEASE stop telling me she shouldn't win because she already did! What about Maryl Streep, Jessica Lange, Robert DeNiro, Daniel Day-Lewis...What? They didn't deserved to win multiple times too? Or is it just because she's a french?
And for "Public Ennemies" i agree, it wasn't really Oscar worthy.
One last thing, Sony pictures classics is taking care of "Amour" and "Rust & Bone". Who do you think they will push? The Hollywood oscar winner princess or the french respected monument?
Maggie's nom in lead it's not wishful thinking at all
the Harvey leading potential this year is Jennifer Lawrence and Maggie Smith;
these are the only leads in his 2012 Oscar films.
Harvey gets his women nominated. Just wait and see.
Quartet has the late December juicy release. Will be "feel good" enough for Oscar. The cast is impressive. The campaign will throw in some acclaim for Dustin as a first time director, will heavily rely on Smith's titanic power as of late and the nom is baked and served.
Downton Abbey season 3 opens in the US in January. Who do you think will be dominating the TV screens?
Last but not least, it's a comedy, so the Golden Globe nom is, in my humble opinion, cemented. In fact, she might end up with 3 GG noms.
And I'm sorry but I can't see how all of the following will score a nom:
-> Marion, Riva and Wallis
To conclude it all, I don't think Watts will get a nomination.
"i hear that Jennifer Lawrence or Wallis are the front runners, it honestly pisses me off because people forget what Oscars are meant for. It's supposed to recognized a UNIQUE and powerful performance that challenge the actor. "
Have you seen Silver Linings Playbook to make that judgment? From everything I hear, Tiffany is a very rare, uniquely complex character.
"I can tell you right now that Marion will win for sure the César and the Golden Globe"
So will Jennifer Lawrence...in comedy, meaning she won't be competing against Cotillard for that award.
"Very honestly how would've been Marion Cotillard in 'Silver Linings Playbook"?"
From what I've heard of the role, knowing Cotillard's performances (which I agree, are great), and knowing the names of actresses who were turned down in favor of someone who was, on paper, all wrong for the role, I can honestly say that Marion Cotillard probably wouldn't have been anything near what David O. Russell was looking for.
"PLEASE stop telling me she shouldn't win because she already did! "
That's not what I said. I said she already won an Oscar because you were whining and insinuating that she has been completely ignored by the Academy.
Honestly she has been ignored for "Nine" and "Midnight in Paris" at least for a nomination.
Mika-The moment you typed that bit about Public Enemies you outed yourself as a superfan. And the moment a movie goes back to the tragic disability well, it is fair to note how hackneyed that tactic has become and the cheap emotionalism associated with it. SLP is not reallly Cotillard's type of film. And I hope I never see Lawrence go for the usual Oscar bait like Rust & Bones.
winston -- i'd be SHOCKED if Rust & Bone was "usual oscar bait" Jacque Audiard don't play it like that. His films are masterful and challenging and hardly "baity".
I always enjoy the way the Film Experience's Oscar choices are open to new performances, and how they skew to the artistic, interesting, lively performances. It's fun to have unexpected surprises like Hitchcock provide possibilities like Colette and Johanson.
But shouldn't Jessica Chastain be in here somewhere for Zero Dark Thirty, even as a long shot? Having just seen Looper, I'd also consider Emily Blunt in the long shot category.
I am a superfan of Cotillard myself, but she can't win TWO leading Oscars before Juliette Binoche, who would have won (if she were American) and deserved to win multiple times, gets her first leading Oscar.
I am on the record now to say that Juliette Binoche is the best working actress in movies today in any nationality. Cotillard is a great actress (and I love her turn in Public Enemies, too), but, come on, there are a lot of French actress I'd like to see winning an Oscar before she wins her second.
Binoche, Huppert (second best working actress, tie with Julianne Moore), Deneuve... Even Emmanuelle Devos, if she had the right role. Don't be so greedy, Mika: one Oscar for Cotillard is ok.
Lol. I Know 1 statue is ok but if she deserves more why keeping it from her?
Binoche is a living treasure. Her win in Supporting classes up the category.
I like Cotillard. She's a mousy, raven haired, French version of Winslet. She basically took a page from Blanchett and fought for female supporting parts in American movies.
Every actor wants to be a lead but never realizes that it's impossible if you're not a commercial star or have a house of auteurs willing to write movies for you.
i'm personally very skeptic about Hitchcock, so far i only see Hopkins and Mirren (regardless on which category she's placed since it's not clear if this is a lead or a supporting role) getting love a la Last station.
As for Quartet the Toronto buzz was rather underwhelming and only Collins got some raves. If anything Smith has more chances to get in for Marigold
I think Riva will win some of the major critics awards like Los Angeles and the NSFC but she'll miss the oscar nod
Cotillard is not gonna happen people. She deserves to be there but her character is just not Oscar's fare. Riva will get in as well as Lawrence. Watts is in danger. Wallis' name will not be called. Keira Knightly is a dark horse and may surprise come nominations morning. Helen Mirren: maybe. Depends on how well the movie plays.
So:
1. Jennifer Lawrence
2. Emmanuelle Riva
3. Keira Knightley
4. Naomi Watts
5. Helen Mirren
On supporting:
1. Hathaway
2. Adams
3. Hunt
4. Field
5. Chastain
Two thoughts I just had, going through your Oscar charts for all four acting categories (both on the male categories though):
1) if Jack Black (tier 3 in lead on your chart) ever becomes an Oscar nominee, I'll lose all respect for the academy!
2) ever since he was mentioned very low in your April fools predictions (and he is still mentioned very very low now) in supporting, I keep thinking about how much I just love the thought of: John Goodman - Oscar nominee :)
But to put in a little actressing as well, I feel like posting my own current predictions for all four acting categories. My problem is, the only eligible film I've seen so for is The Hunger Games (I love it; I loved the books, I hate the people who hate the film only because it's not 100 % like the books, I love Jen, Joshi, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, my girl Isabelle in her small but great role...), so my predictions are mainly based on how much Nathaniels writing on the roles convinced me:
Actor
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Bill Murray - Hyde Park on the Hudson
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant - Amour
Actress (by the way, how is this a great year for actresses??)
Jennifer Lawrence - The Silver Linings Playbook
Laura Linney - Hyde Park on the Hudson (the used to love her, didn't they?)
Emanuelle Mira - Amour
Hellen Mirren - Hitchcock
Quvenzahné Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild (this will beat Keisha's record, which I find hard to see happening, but there seems to be so little competition...)
Supporting Actor
Bryan Cranston - Argo (wild card, love him, not many others convince me
John Goodman - Argo (wild card, love him, not many others convince me, great performances in well-liked films in the past, e.g. Big Lebowski)
Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild (probably coasting on Wallis)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master (they love him, right? and he works good with PTA, right?)
David Strathairn - Lincoln (lock!, great character actor, and only nominated once so far!)
Supporting Actress
Elizabeth Banks - The Hunger Games (my personal wild card - you could argue that she's best in show, and that she's been around quite long with some prominent roles)
Samantha Barks - Les Miserables (obligatory double nominees for one film)
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables (lock!, she has to put up with Michelle Williams finally...)
Scarlett Johansson - Hitchock (lock!, she will be back, apology for GWTPE and LIT)
Olivia Williams - Hyde Park on the Hudson (she has been in the conversation for some years now...)
OR (drop Banks or Williams)
Kerry Washington - Django Unchained (she has also been in the conversation before)
I am not as high on Amour's chances as the rest of you guys seem to be. Riva is great, Tritignant as well, but the film is sooooo slow. It's going to take a lot of patience for some Academy members...
It's not like I'm a super fan of Cotillard honestly but i hear that Jennifer Lawrence or Wallis are the front runners, it honestly pisses me off because people forget what Oscars are meant for. It's supposed to recognized a UNIQUE and powerful performance that challenge the actor.
Are you sure you're not a super fan, Mika? Because all your ranting and raving about how fabulous Marion is and how horrible Jennifer is sure as hell outs you as some weirdo obessive Cotillard fan.
For the record I'm a fan of both actresses, and from what I've read about Marion is that she's actually a very gracious and generous person. I think that if Marion were to read what you've written, she would be more than a little mortified about how you are deriding another artist for her sake.
As for the purpose of the Oscars, they are to award excellence for the achievements in the film industry within a given calendar year. For the acting awards, the purpose is to present it to the performer who was deemed to have given the best performance, not to the performer who was the most challenged by a particular role.
BTW, your rantings about how Marion would have performed the role of Tiffany better and how Jennifer would have failed if she was cast in 'Rust and Bone' are quite frankly, more than a little inane. Both are talented actresses, but not every actress is right for every role. Cotillard couldn't have played Tiffany the way she need to be portrayed, and Lawrence couldn't have played Stephanie as well as Cotillard did.
One final comment, you seem to be on anti Jennifer Lawrence jag. I suggest you take a breath and shed your hate and actually watch some of Lawrence's work. She's actually an excellent actress and has won numerous accolades and awards within the film and television industry. If you can give her the benefit of the doubt and see her work without bias, you are likely going to be very pleasantly surprised.
Ok now i hate Jennifer Lawrence and I'm a weird because i give my opignon? I've never said Jennifer Lawrence was terrible or a bad actress at all! Actually, believe it or not, I really like her but that's not the point. All i said was that, for me, Marion gave a stronger performance and i think she is more skillful than Lawrence only because she has more experience and maturity. And i also said that the role was bigger in term of material to work with. So you can think i'm a super fan of Marion Cotillard but actually i'm not, but i'm a fan of MOVIES and i can tell you the entire filmography of hundreds of actors and directors. It's not just Marion Cotillard. And BTW here it´s about Oscars predictions ( What is probably going to happened) and not about what i would like to happened. Now please, treat me of weirdo or whatever you want but what i see is people saying that her role is "a cliché", that she can't be nominated for another foreign language performance only because she's french and Riva got the spot but i say We will see!
Aaron. About Wallis and the comments that her performance is really "due to the director"... The same thing was said about Tatum O'Neal's performace in "Paper Moon". It was even common knowledge from the very beginning that Bogdanovich had recorded all her dialogue (inflections, timing. etc) for her and she learned it by repetition and "mimicking". And yet she won the Oscar!
I have my serious doubts about Mirren. Do we know if it's a lead role? Is it "showy"?
I have a good feeling about Knightley.
Now, let's talk about Riva and Trintignant. I haven't had time to do some thorough research, but I don't think there's ever been a foreign film where both the leading actor AND the actress were nominated. It's either one or the other. It was either Sophia Loren or Marcello Mastroianni, but not both; Liv Ullman or Max Von Sydow, but not both; Isabelle Adjani or Gerard Depardieu, but not both; in 1966 Anouk Aimee was nominated for "A Man and a Woman" but Trintignant was left out. And we're talking big names here.
What's more, the only time there were two foreign players nominated one in each leading category was 1998, with Roberto Benigni winning and Fernanda Montenegro a nominee - obviously for two different films.