Best Picture: October is The New December
Sunday, September 29, 2013 at 8:10AM one... two... three... do the release date shuffle ♬
Over the past couple of weeks the last quarter of the year has pulling its usual release date switcheroos, brushing detritus or unfinished masterworks (you decide) from its schedule. We can all act surprised if we so choose but we're only fooling ourselves when we do.
And they say, "Goldfish have no memory"
I guess their lives are much like mine
And the little plastic castle
Is a surprise every time
-Ani DiFranco "Little Plastic Castle"
This happens every year! So no more Foxcatcher in December. No more Grace of Monaco in November. Curiously both films had released trailers seemingly moments before they were pulled from the calendar. (Foxcatcher's trailer was quickly snatched back from view before I even had time to watch it but at least we had time to discuss Grace).
In paradoxically more alarming / less surprising non-news [more]
The Wolf of Wall Street continues to be a question mark. As we remarked before most websites have made rather definitive headline type statements saying it's moved to 2014 but this is not factually true (yet). Unless I missed it Paramount has not made a definitive statement other than that Scorsese is still in post and the inferral that there's no way it's making it original November 15th release date. But, really, why is everyone so fussy/bothered at the idea of a three hour cut? Since when can't Martin Scorsese release a long movie? Do you mean to tell me he doesn't have final cut anymore? I mean *I* prefer my movies half that length (90 minutes is bliss) but Scorsese, according to all available evidence, does not.
All of this leads us to the new joyous conclusion that October might be the new December which is EXACTLY how The Film Experience likes it. I say "might" because, even when things go well for early fall releases at Oscar (see Argo) Hollywood tends to resist, ever drifting back to the allure of Christmas.
How well did previous October releases fare in the past decade?
2012 ARGO (winner and sole October release nominated)
2011 no October releases but a nice spread of months
2010 THE SOCIAL NETWORK (presumed runner up)
2009 AN EDUCATION and A SERIOUS MAN (5 noms between them)
2008 only last gasp of year nominees
2007 MICHAEL CLAYTON otherwise all last gasp of year
2006 THE DEPARTED (winner and sole October release...though THE QUEEN was last weekend of Sept. This was not a December-focused year)
2005 GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK (and CAPOTE was a Sept 30th release ;)
2004 RAY and SIDEWAYS (11 noms and 3 wins between them)
2003 MYSTIC RIVER (presumed runner-up... but also maybe LOST IN TRANSLATION... that release date is so confusing in retrospect. IMDb release date listings are aggravating unspecific and include festival premieres sometimes without indication. And I don't remember this one playing for two weeks in LA before a limited release in NYC?)
Oscars are supposed to be about a specific film year and the Oscar competition is more fun when audiences can play along, having seen the nominees in question. Choosing sides before you've seen a film or performance is common habit these days, an easy temptation to succumb to due to sometimes interminable waits for the Oscar season to get going, but it's really not good for the movie-lover. It makes you less open to experiencing each actual movie (as opposed to your dreams for it) once it arrives. So a slew of major Best Picture players releasing in October is just fine and that's exactly what we're getting this year with Gravity, Captain Phillips, 12 Years a Slave all arriving in the next three weeks... bam bam bam. Your individual mileage will vary on these three (I was technically awed but emotionally unmoved by the first, surprised by the second which features Tom Hanks at his best, though, it should be known that I'm not a fan of either of his statue-winning performances, and wowed by the third) but all three will undoubtedly be major players. They'll maybe even be the top players. Expect five plus nominations each ... and that's a lowball estimate.
I've currently placed them at numbers 1, 2, and 3 on our Updated Best Picture Chart for Oscar 2013* and dropped American Hustle from its previous #1 perch because really, it's a "what if" that no one has seen.
*... which brings me to my Pet Peeve Rant of the Day / All Time.
The one week qualifier and slow rollout Oscar strategy popularized over the past 20 years (but thankfully losing steam now?) combined with the rise of IMDb really messed things up some years ago when they came to prominence in rough tandem. IMDb labelled Oscar years the year in which the ceremony took place right from the start rather than the correct way, by the year which was being honored. Now more and more websites have followed suit, including the otherwise fab In Contention, despite Oscar ceremonies taking place closer to the calendar year they're honoring than they used to decades ago. Unfortunately this is not how its supposed to work and you can see the confusion its caused on Wikipedia and around the web with competing contradictory calendar year lists and titles. FACT: The winner of the Best Picture award for 1991 was Silence of the Lambs, not Dances With Wolves, you know? This year's Best Picture is NOT Argo ... Argo came out last year. We won't know what 2013's Best Picture is until 2014 but that doesn't make it Best Picture 2014. I'm old enough to know that people used to always refer to Oscar night wins by the year the films arrived and not by the ceremony but thanks to IMDB's indoctrination and years of Oscar races where no one could see the films until around the time of the ceremony, people say it wrong.
Now, I wouldn't know what to say if I were miraculously on a gameshow with a chance to win a million dollars and they asked me "Which film won 1972's Best Picture Oscar?" The correct answer is The Godfather (sniffle... sorry Cabaret) even though it won the prize in March of '73. But would that game show expect me to say The French Connection?" In this rhetorical fantasy I maybe just lost a million dollars because I refuse to accept that The Godfather, released on the 3/24/72, is 1973's Best Picture.
I REFUSE!
UPDATED CHARTS IN THESE THREE CATEGORIES
Picture and Director and Adapted & Original Screenplay
The Screenplay categories seem ultra competitive this year, Original especially
Reader Comments (29)
there is no way Short Term 12 has a better chance at a nomination for screenplay than Before Midnight and Venice winner Philomena. Your love for that film is blinding you to reason :-)
So glad you're on the Captain Phillips bandwagon now. My favorite film of the year so far, and I really hope it can crack Supporting Actor as well.
The Foxcatcher teaser was fabulous. Too bad you missed it! Steve Carell looked incredible.
I don't mind seeing some of these films move if it means that a few smaller movies will have more of a shot at nominations this year (All Is Lost, Dallas Buyers Club, maybe Fruitvale Station), but it may just mean that something like August: Osage County slips into BP.
Your pet peeve = 100% yes
Totally on board with your rant.
murtada -- maybe. but i'm allowed one blindspot of love :)
Realistically, I'm not not sure those adapted screenplay nominees will happen, but it's so much more fun imagining a lineup as wacky and esoteric as that.
October is my birthday month and so it gives me even MORE latitude over my friends when it comes to picking movies (as if I don't already force them to see movies throughout the year). So October being the "new December" is just perfect for me. Already assigning 12 Years A Slave as The Birthday Movie of the Year for me (weird sentence I know).
I actually wonder if enough voters will see Before Midnight for it to sneak in for Adapted Screenplay again. I think, at the moment, Short Term 12 is a safer bet because it's still playing. I have no expectations for Adapted Screenplay at this point because it's just a weird field of potential nominees. Other than August Osage County, I'm not seeing a lot of traditional Oscar bait in the category. Unless we count anything Tom Hanks as Oscar bait now.
Foxcatcher teaser:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl34ZgeEptM
Too bad for Steve Carell they postponed the movie. Judging by the teaser, he looked like a surefire oscar nomination AND win for 2014...
That Foxcatcher trailer on YouTube was incredible! Too bad they moved it to next year. I believe it's going to be either Gravity OR All Is Lost for a spot among the nominees.
Ulrich -- 2013 you mean. Though he can compete for 2014 now.
now that Harvey is officially not supporting "Grace of Monaco" and "The Immigrant" for this Oscar season, he will go all round crazy in securing nominations for Streep and Dench, they are practically his only Lead Actress options.
He won't manage to squeeze Julia in as a Lead, he's smart enough to know it's a bad route to choose.
It really goes down to: Blanchett, Streep, Dench, Bullock, Adams, Thompson
I really can't see anything changing that top 6. Shift is possible only within.
I also think that "Blue Jasmine" will secure a Best Picture nod. Not only that but Hawkins is a strong contender for a Best Supporting Actress nomination. I definitely don't think she is being underused in the film.
Nathaniel: Thank you for raising the issue of the correct 'year' for an Oscar win. It really bothers me that IMDb and others list the wrong year - and I too have wondered about how I would answer on the proverbail gameshow!
Wikipedia actually asks you which year you want when you do a search for oscar winner by year, pointing out the confusion of 1992 oscars presentation was held in 1993.
Yavor -- but no one has seen Thompson & Adams films. So therefore a lot could still change.
Robert G -- thank you. My thing with Before Midnight... I realize I've always been less bullish about it winning Oscar nods than most pundits, professional and otherwise (who thought Best Pic and Best Actress were totally going to happen earlier this year) but i just dont think Oscar has ever shown that much interest in the series. it's true it received one screenplay nomination before but that was not all tough a competitive category ( It's true that it knocked out "Closer" but Closer was not all that warmly received beyond its actors) and the movie was a total knockout surprise revelation. This film does not have the expectation of surprise at all. It had instead major expectations. I wonder if they'll respond. They might of course but I'm doubtful.
I agree about October being a prime release month. It gives us a little time to digest everything, have a healthy discussion about the contenders, and let the false masterpieces fade from our memory.
As for your predictions, I'm curious why you have Inside Llewyn Davis at #16 after seeing it. It's a small picture, but it's got big names, as much buzz as several in the top 10, and people seem to really be charmed by it (if A Serious Man, which seemed to have far fewer fans, can get in...).
And re: your rant, PREACH! This annoys me too. Reminds me of when I was a kid and learned that the Miss America crowned every September was the Miss America for the following year. At least that made a little more sense since it's a prospective thing (Miss America will reign) as opposed to the retrospective Oscars (the best movie of the past year), but anything that confuses when something happened is *tres* annoying.
I'm curious why you've got The Butler (I mean Lee Daniels' The Butler) in your top 5 for best pictures have left Lee Daniels The Director as an also ran way down in the pack.
Evan -- the Miss America thing makes a lot of sense to me because of that -- a job that lasts one year. Argo will not be walking up to the podium next March to hand it's Oscar over to 2013's best picture, you know?
San Fran -- i just figure films are strong in different ways and whereas Precious was regarded as his vision,... i think the people who are going to love The Butler will be the acting branch. just a hunch.
Totally agree about you rant, although it doesn't bother me as much anymore as I've pretty much memorized what won which year. I always thought the same thing about being on a game show though!
Hoping against hope Miyazaki somehow manages to get a Best Director award for his final and possibly his most daring film The Wind Rises.
Nathaniel, yes Miss America makes more since, but think of it this way: if a woman says "I was Miss America 1971," they mean they were crowned the winner in 1970 and reigned from September '70-September '71. They weren't even reigning during all of 1971. Not unlike the Foreign Language Film deadlines, it just makes things a little more awkward to track on a timeline!
Reuben, that would be wonderful and unexpected. The film would need to get a wide enough release to have traction outside of Animated Feature and I don't see that happening. Is Disney still the sole US distributor of Studio Ghibli? Then they'll bury it because it could be up against a big Disney film again or sit on it until it's somehow ineligible to compete like The Secret World of Arietty.
Robert G, The Wind Rises will get a one week qualifying release and then come out in February, I believe. So it'll be eligible for animated film (and everything else), but it will only get animated film. A shame.
If it can get a serious campaigning push from Disney, I'd hope that, if it can't quite clear the hurdle to make it into Director (though perhaps a critics group or two may give it some attention for that), that it could sneak into Sound Mixing? The plane sounds are extremely impressive considering they were done acapella.
Agree with everyone that I love seeing potential nominees in the fall, instead of having to wait until January for the already announced nominated films. Makes me feel included in the Oscar season, in a small way.
Speaking of your blind spot Nathaniel, I saw Short Term 12 last week with friends, and we all LOVED it. I don't know if I would have seen it if not for your advocacy, so thank you!
daisy -- so glad to hear it. everyone who has told me they went due to my constant chatter about it has been grateful except maybe Nick :) but it's so good. I hope people continue to recommend it to friends.
Nat - yep, I was just coming here to say the same thing. I went to Short Term 12 based solely on your recommendation (how has it been playing Chicago for a few weeks now and I've seen NOTHING about it?) and loved it. Although I have the same reservation about the narrative climax you do after listening to your podcast (and I also think her apology to her fiancé was way too easy and rushed), overall it was just a great experience at the movies. Thanks so much for telling us about it.
I'm starting to think that December should be the new January. Leave it for all the family film and crowd pleasers but give the Oscar contenders October and November with the most popular continuing their runs through the holidays. It is really getting tiresome that the public doesn't have time to actually see the films before the nominations take place.