What Does Oscar Campaigning Look Like During the Strikes?

By Ben Miller

The fall film festival season is upon us, but with a notable exception.  The usual lineup of Hollywood A-listers are (mostly) absent due to studio greed and the continuing SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes.  But so far, the date of the 96th Oscars haven't moved.  Unless the strikes are resolved more quickly than anyone believes they will be, the best films and performances will have to go toe-to-toe without the benefit of a robust campaign.

But what does an Oscar campaign look like if you aren't allowed to campaign?  

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"Dune Part Two" down, "Barbie" up, the Warner Bros Oscar shuffle.

by Nathaniel R

"Dune Part Two" and "Barbie" both come from Warner Bros

No sooner had we entirely completed the first round of Oscar predictions than Warner Bros up and announced that Dune Part Two would be moving to 2024, March 15th to be exact. And we had to rearrange several charts. The delay for the sandy sci-fi sequel is surely due to the ongoing strikes and fears that Timothée and the other stars wouldn't be promoting the movie. [Aside to the AMPT: Just meet the actors and writers demands, already! You can't make movies without them and the asks are not unreasonable given how their wages have been dropping despite still mammoth earnings for entertaining. But it appears that when the only thing you understand is greed, little Oliver asking for slightly more gruel from your abundant pot is offensive!]

When it comes to the Oscar race this means there's far more room for other movies to benefit since the first installment of Denis Villeneuve's take on the classic sci-fantasy opera won a whopping six Oscars from fen nominations two years back. At first glance we think the film that benefits most is Barbie, which also happens to be from Warner Bros...

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Two Shorts = One Feature, sí?

by Nathaniel R

You may have heard that Sony Pictures Classics has decided on a release strategy for Pedro Almodóvar's short Strange Way of Life (which Elisa reviewed at Cannes). It will debut in NY & LA theaters on Wednesday October 4th and expand that Friday Oct 6th to other cities. Since the western starring Ethan Hawke and Pedro Pascal as lovers is only 31 minutes long it will be paired in release with the auteur's only previous English language effort, The Human Voice (reviewed here in 2020) which starred Tilda Swinton and is 30 minutes long.

Together that's just one hour and a single minute of cinema but it's Almodóvar so it stands to reason it's worth the ticket price. Do you think people will shell out for a double-short bill? 

Vote on Best Actress. (Plus 'How'd they get nominated?')

The Best Actress chart is fully updated for your viewing pleasure with details, stats, and trivia. Here's one curio trivia bit. We believe that this is only the second time in history when all five Best Actress nominees are from different countries! (Usually it's some combo of Americans, Brits, and Aussies). All that plus our semi-annual "How'd They Get Nominated?" breakdown. Before anyone takes offense at the guesstimate percentages (it's all in good fun) please note that these are NOT performance critiques. A truth: You can give the most brilliant performance of all time and still be nominated for other reasons entirely. Awards races, Oscar and otherwise, are meritocracies only in the utopian ideal sense; People are people (including, thus, all voting bodies be they fans, high brow critics, or Academy members) and their reasons for voting in any given way are multiple and varied and heavily influenced by all sorts of things. Plus, it's all subjective too!

Adrien Brody & Ana de Armas in "Blonde" (Netflix)

Let's start with Ana de Armas in Blonde for an example. How'd she get nominated?

67% Role. Awards bodies have always loved Marilyn portrayals which have led to Emmy, Oscar, and Tony nods for various actresses across multiple decades (though not wins curiously enough).
20% Performance. Even people who didn't love the movie admired her work in it.
6% Globe nomination / ceremony shout-outs revived interest in a crowded race.
5% Knives Out + No Time To Die = rapidly ascending stardom (Big stars have a built in advantage in popularity contests) 
2% Early traction! That September release struck while the iron was hot from Venice festival buzz. Blonde was widely seen (via Netflix) before all but one of the major competitors for the nomination arrived (Michelle Yeoh was the exception).

The other four breakdowns are on the Best Actress page where you can vote daily in the "Who SHOULD win?" poll. 

"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" Trailer & "The Multiverse Saga" Timeline

by Nathaniel R

Queen Bassett contemplates the future of Wakanda (as we contemplate the future of the MCU)

We try not to care about the MCU because it's become so dominant as to be oppressive on movie culture BUT we did grow up reading Marvel comic books so it's hard to look away. Phase Four of Marvel's Cinematic Universe has brought (comparatively) mixed reactions with people griping that the work is getting sloppier, particularly vfx and action-wise, in their rush to have literally dozens of subfranchises under the overall MCU umbrella. We'd also argue that they're getting a bit lazier in character development, trusting that comics lore and general fan culture will sell everything rather than putting the personality onscreen where it needs to be.

We hope it improves soon and if it's going to, Wakanda Forever (trailer below just dropped) would be the ideal place to right the ship what with a strong proven director and cast (Ryan Coogler and several cast members returning), a beloved property, and one of Marvel's most intriguing characters (at least on the page) being introduced...

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