Big Eyes Surprise? Final Best Actress Predictions
Monday, January 12, 2015 at 10:08AM One of last night's most unnerving moments may well have been hearing Big Eyes mentioned multiple times. It's easy to forget that the movie is out in theaters now, since it didn't make big Christmas waves in the media or the box office (it's likely to end its run as Burton's second least successful film of all time after Ed Wood which is 100 times better), didn't earn rave reviews (it's sitting at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes which is, shall we say, generous) so Amy Adams surprise upon winning is entirely understandable.
To say that I am ill prepared for this moment is a huge understatement. Huge."
The surprise win reminds us that she's been generously adored by nearly all the awards communities for years now, an embryonic-Meryl perhaps. This season provides the biggest test yet of how much of a default nominee she truly is with AMPAS. If she manages an Oscar nod this year against much stronger competition in much better films (Reese, Julianne, Felicity, Marion, Rosamund, Hilary, and Emily) and a much more willful campaign for another performance that's better than its movie (Hi, Jennifer Aniston!) you should expect her to be nominated for every film going forward, as you would Meryl herself.
Nevertheless I don't think it's going to happen and the dye is set on this category. Our nominees will be
Best Actress Oscar Predictions
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
A few critics groups made a valiant stand for Marion Cotillard but in the end Two Days One Night killed that dream itself by arriving in theaters way too late to build any presence of its own as an impressive movie, which would have bolstered support for the shockingly real performance at its center from an actress that keeps topping her Oscar-winning role without the Academy paying her any mind.
In conclusion, may Big Eyes greatest pop culture legacy be the opening monologue joke from Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. They announced that there was a live Margaret Keane painting at the ceremony. Cut to: Emma Stone. Well, they are gigantic. They take up her whole face like an anime character. What really sold the punchline was its coda; Tina & Amy are great at those little joke extenders when you're already laughing.
Emma reactions to a BIG EYES joke aimed at her gif via Vulture
It's cute. But it's creepy."
We might say the same of Amy Adams Awards Haul!
Reader Comments (51)
Plus she's has the Bafta nom tooI suppose my hopes for Hilary finally being forgiven for that 2nd win are gone,I hope Stone is snubbed I thought sha was ok and don't get the love.
I'd really really really love a Lamy snub but it's not happening. She's in the conversation the whole year backed by Harvey who even fabricated a fake Today Show to make some headlines for the movie. Mini-Meryl indeed, hopefully she wins soon so she gets Kate Winslet-ed outta here.
I can't with all these jealous haters coming for Ms.Adams. I'm not a big fan but I can see why people like her. It's not her fault that her peers love her. In a case between Amy and thirsty Aniston. I would have to root for Amy. I hope the Academy doesn't nominate Aniston and her trashy movie. This is nothing but a self vanity project. Her campaign is just shameless.
Yeah, I think this is not happening, but it's certainly something that I wouldn't be shocked by. Honestly, I wouldn't be stunned if Aniston and Adams both make it, as the only nominees that feel truly safe are Jones and Moore. But this lineup feels about right. Quite frankly, it's probably for the best for Adams, who has been magnetic in the past, but doesn't really need default status which is going to kill her eventual post-Oscar career.
The real question for me is what does Aniston do next after being an Oscar nominee? Does she take her career in a new wave like Bullock or does she go back to forgettable (but usually profitable) comedies?
If she does make it in, I wouldn't automatically assume that Aniston would be bumped in favor... I think Felicity or Reese might be.
Ah, Nathaniel. You too? While we're being snarky about deserves and undeserves, why does Meryl bring her agent as a date to this? Can't he get his own invite? Especially when one of her actress daughters could use the extra Red Carpet exposure.
I like Julianne getting a nod, although it feels fraudulent for 2014 since this movie doesn't open wide until THIS COMING FRIDAY IN THE U.S.!!!
No way she's missing with Harvey behind her, plus her GG win + BAFTA nom. SAG clearly has something against her, but she hasn't needed their help the past two years either. The academy loves her, and I doubt they'd put Aniston in a critically reviled movie before one of their favorites.
I won't participate in the public shaming of Amy. I liked the dress.
Your five are my five too.
Peggy Sue & KarlM -- how is this public shaming or hating? I was nice. I didn't say she was awful (i think she's good in the movie - but not as good as her competitors -- but the movie is horrible). I'm just talking about love from awards shows. And FWIW, the Globes are not Amy's peers. They are press. Her peers are SAG and AMPAS. which seem to have slightly different opinions of her.
Bia -- I agree... which you'll see if you click on the chart
Pam -- Jennifer Aniston's movie is arriving even later.
Jordan -- Cake has no critical consensus really since it never opened. It only has 16 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes.
I was really looking forward to an Emily Blunt speech. I have to say Amy looked lovely last night and I have to say the win made me want to watch the film, which has been on the edge of my viewing list for weeks now.
Honestly, I really think only Pike and Moore are safe.
Wild's seeming lack of general love, Felicity Jones still relatively unknown and not in the banner role of the film, Aniston's heavy campaign for a film that has no buzz, Big Eyes' meh-ness and Cotillard's massive uphill battle could produce any number of final combinations with the top two. I'm thinking Reese gets squeeze out by Jones, Adams and maybe Aniston/Cotillard. Miracle nominations have happened in this category before, especially when many of the potential nominees have big marks against them. It helps a film with serious passionate supporters (Marion's, if anyone) get bumped up when there's no final five consensus.
Shocker of shockers? If juuuuuuust enough people think Patricia Arquette is lead and she shows up here. CAN YOU IMAGINE. I MEAN CAN YOU IMAGINE.
It's in Amy's interest that she isn't nominated. All though I didn't think Amy Adams was deserving of five nominations, when I though about it, I didn't begrudge any of her nominations really and I thought she was fully deserving of at least four of them. Amy doesn't deserve this nomination. I agree with Nathaniel she's good, but others are more deserving. I'm not referring to dream nominees (Cotillard, Johansson, Slate) but actual contenders. Default nominees are fine, if they're deserving, if they're not, that's the beginning of the backlash. Also, Adams is in and a possible winner next year. A year out would add a sense of her being due and secure a win.
what a difference one year makes.
Keegan: I 100% agree. There is nothing wrong with Amy's 5 previous nominations - most of them are for extremely strong and worthy work. But a 6th will have to come for something just as good.
Nathaniel's GENEROUS coverage of American Hustle last year would show anyone that he's not an Adams "hater."
Comedy BA was a weak category.. I mean, none of the women are in the conversation for AMPAS or on SAGs list. I was surprised that Blunt didn't win but Adams being the default winner doesn't bother me. HFPA were sort of the same way with the Zell a decade ago.
Adams looked great last night.
To me, Amy's win was such a pleasant moment at the ceremony. She deserved it 100%. Her performance as Margaret Keane was quietly brilliant. I think there's something almost poetic in the way she gradually reveals her character's sadness. It's a performance of immense internal power and it's a shame some people didn't pay any notice because it was rightfully so understated. She portrays a woman who was always at someone else's shadow and struggled not only to raise her voice but find it on the first place. Really tricky role and really tricky performance and if it hadn't been for the deserved praise she got last year thanks to her ferocious turn in American Hustle, anyone would be ok with her Golden Globe win and another possible nomination at The Oscars. If it was for me to choose, I'd rather have Amy's mesmerizing turn in Burton's film instead of Aniston's plainly solid performance in Cake. And I wish Marion could take Felicity Jones' place. Amy's speech was fantastic by the way. Haters will hate, who cares? Amy is an immensely talented actress and clearly a beautiful woman, inside and out. Those losers who keep on trashing on everyone just because they're jealous of anyone successful are literally pathetic. It's not Amy's fault that she's talented and successful. At least she's an authentic, humble and graceful presence in a star system full of inauthenticity.
I suppose my hopes for Hilary finally being forgiven for that 2nd win are gone
To break the curse give Annette Bening an Oscar.
Amy Adams said that she didn't think she would win, was surprised when she was, and afterwords admitted she was hoping for another actress (Blunt) to win.
I call that gracious behavior under the circumstances.
I realize there is a backlash, but honestly I think she continues to be an excellent actress on screen, and a classy lady when in public.
And she rocked her dress. Red headed actresses were all looking good last night.
Oh, please no. Adams was the only good thing about Big Eyes, but I don't want anything or anyone from that shit to be nominated. As long as it's not Waltz though...
To be fair, the only one of the better performances you listed that is a comedy/musical one is Blunt's. It was just an easy category to swipe, but I doubt it means much more than the Globes love her. Personally, I don't have a huge issue with them choosing her over Blunt, who I thought was very good but not earth shattering...other than there was nothing particularly comedic (and definitely nothing musical) about Big Eyes. The Globes should just drop the genre thing anyway, as more and more uncategorizable films come up, like Maps to the Stars.
Amy is a fine actress, but she's miscast a lot. And she definitely did NOT deserve to be nominated for Doubt or The Master. All the other nominations were worthy.
The curious thing about Amy Adams is that unlike Winslet, Moore, and Close, she now has two (consecutive!) Golden Globes for roles that have no chance of winning her an Oscar. Typically when AMPAS makes women wait, so do ALL the other awards bodies.
Until Game Change, Moore had, like, a daytime Emmy for "best ingenue" (a fact that I always found so genius and endearing). I have given so much thought to that daytime Emmy—where does she keep it? What does she think about it? Has it haunted her like Birdman? Is she ironic about it?
Hayden W -- i love you for this.
Lmao, immense internal power??? Is that a code for all out blandness?
And the speech was even worse. It's ok to win undeserving awards but at least deliver onstage. She can't be interesting for 30 seconds, omg.
Amy Adams doesn't deserve Oscar nomination and if she gets it so that could affect Harvey Weinstein and Amy herself. Boring and bad performance. Cotillard deserves more, much more.
Unless I'm mistaken, only four times (Sally Hawkins, Reneé Zellweger, Madonna, Nicole Kidman) in the past 20 years has the Golden Globe winner for comedy/musical not been nominated for an Oscar, and in each case all five eventual Oscar nominees were from dramas (of some sort). So Moore, Witherspoon, Jones and Pike (unless you really want to consider GG a comedy) are definitely in.
The thing about Aniston vs. Adams for the fifth slot is the fact that Aniston is considered a comedy actress, which may have a subliminal effect on the voters, and that Adams is a default nominee (ditto). So for me it's a toss-up, with Swank and Cotillard lurking on the fringes.
They did have this type of affair with Kidman who won back to back in different categories 01 and 02 then nominated 03 and 04,Zellweger won in 00,02 and 03 for supporting that year then nominations in 05 and 06.Then NOTHING!!! for her.
I don't think you're a hater, dear.
LMAO these two pressed haters, ssheyla and Jows. It does not matter if Adams deserves this or not. There are a lot of unworthy nominees and winners. The great performances don't even get nominated.
Right now, it's a toss up between Aniston and Adams. 50/50. If Aniston gets nominated, get ready for her because she'll be appearing in DOR, Marty and Payne movies. If Adams gets nominated, it will build up the due narrative for her.
There's only a short window for an actress over 40. I can't blame them for campaigning.
I would argue that Amy Adams is the most beloved American actress after Meryl Streep and Jennifer Lawrence. I don't know why that is, but it's clear at this point that she's super popular in the industry and I can't see her missing on Thursday.
I really hope the lack of passion or consensus for both Aniston and Adams allows someone WITH a lot of fringe support/passion like Cotillard or Johansson to sneak in (obviously Cotillard is more likely. Don't even think A24 sent screeners out for Under the Skin). You sort of saw this happen in 2007 when Laura Linney knocked out Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart) for The Savages, a performance that literally had no precursor support but was widely loved by a passionate group of solid supporters.
I will be really pissed off, however, if Reese Witherspoon is snubbed. I think her performance is stronger than Moore's, frankly. They can snub Felicity Jones all they want though.
Anyways, I'm think Amy Adams has enough zombie, default support to land another nomination over Aniston, although I really hope both are snubbed in favor of Marion Cotillard.
Okay, so we're saying the choice is between Jennifer Aniston and Amy Adams and we're like debating over who deserves it more with their movies sight unseen?
Hm. Jeez. Who do i trust to deliver a more modulated performance..
We have The Good Girl, Friends with Money and Horrible Bosses on one side. And on the other we have Junebug, American Hustle, The Master, The Fighter, Enchanted, Her (which should've netted her the damn Oscar last year, her second after Junebug).
Look of course Cotillard was the best thing in movies this year, and I'm marginally curious to see Cake and suspect Aniston might even be good in it.
But you lay off my Amy Adams! With that kind of track record, it's impossible for her to be over rewarded. If anything she's under rewarded and dangerously close to Renee Zellweger's age.
Mark-to be fair, Zellweger kind of stopped making movies after that.
I do think Cotillard still has a shot to sneak in to slot #5. Or perhaps they'll go wild and toss Jones too...I'm still not buying her as a mortal lock. Everyone has to know how good Cotillard is in those 2 films, the major problem seems to be that the performance of the 2 that emerged as her frontrunner is in another language. Critics didn't care, maybe Oscar won't care as much either.
Jennifer Aniston doesn't deserve to be nominated for an Oscar. Especially over someone as esteemed and as awesome as Marion Cotillard.
Amy Adams could be any basic girl on the street. She has no charisma, no presence, no spark. I cannot understand why people are so fascinated by her.
PLEASE GOD DON'T LET AMY ADAMS BE NOMINATED. These past few months all the Oscar pundits had her in sixth place even after missing big nominations and i didn't want to believe Harvey was really working his magic like this, I thought no way....and then she shows up on the BAFTAs list and wins the Globe. I have never understood the Adams hype (except for Junebug, she was wonderful in that...the Fighter too I suppose) but she is so over rewarded (yes, nominations are rewards too). And god, what an awful, boring speech. haha. She is really bad at speeches. I know she was shocked at winning but I remember her speech last year being really flat too. She just really rubs me the wrong way ;(((
I honestly hope it's Jennifer Aniston. Or Marion. Or Hilary Swank. I'm not really an Aniston fan but these kinds of things happen once for some people and to see her so close with an actually good performance makes me want to root for the underdog, lol. Heck, Gugu or Scarlett or Emily Blunt. QUVENZHANE! Anyone but Amy Adams. I know I sound like such a hater right now I'm sorry :(
And please no Patricia Arquette in lead (I don't think it'll happen, but...) because if that happens she won't win her Oscar and that's what I'm living for right now.
It would also be really upsetting to see Reese get snubbed because this is finally her post-Oscar nod and she is really, really good in the film. i don't think she'll miss out, but it's def shaky.
@Philip H.
I agree re: Reese. I thought she was fabulous in Wild and the film was great too. Still scratching my head about how that film didn't "catch on" outside of Lead Actress consideration. Is it because it's too female-centric. It's miles more interesting than The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game, but alas, that's Oscar's catnip.
Regardless, I'll be really pissed if she somehow misses out.
I love Amy Adam's work, and really liked her performance in Big Eyes. I'd agree though that it's to her advantage to not be nominated this year. A nomination another year where she has a better chance of winning would be more politic.
That doesn't mean I want a category where there's just Julianne Moore and a bunch of placeholders. I'd like to see Marion Cotillard, Reese Witherspoon, Tilda Swinton (Lovers), Gugu Mbatha Raw (Lights), and Rosamund Pike.
It's as if once the critics and bloggers who are uninterested in women's lead performances saw that Moore could be in the running, they stopped looking at anyone else. I like Moore but that doesn't mean Cotillard can't be nominated. And Aniston instead of Cotillard-- I won't even think about that.
Whenever people talk about Amy Adams not deserving all the nominations she has, I start counting. Drop Dead Gorgeous, Catch Me If You Can, Junebug, Enchanted, Sunshine Cleaning, The Fighter, The Master, American Hustle, Her...nope five sounds just fine to me.
It will hurt like when they snubbed Mariah for Precious if they snubbed LeJend Aniston. :(((
I think the fifth spot is Amy's.
I would prefer Adams that Aniston any day of the week
Cotillard still has a chance (he says, desperately). I think it's important to remember that it's the actors who vote on the acting nominations, and not the publicists, producers, etc who might be more likely to go for a more mainstream pick. I think that Bardem's Biutiful nomination might be a good comparison.
I also can't help but notice that all of the actresses duking it out for the final few spots had their movies open way late (slash don't even seem to exist?). Cotillard, Adams, Aniston, Swank...
ok.. Ok.. Give that Oscar to Amy Adams so we can be done with her and not see her anymore.. Can't understand her
Strangely, Aniston in "Cake" reminds me just slightly of Moore's situation in "Still Alice." Both perform characters under physiological distress in movies that revolve around their performances. "Still Alice" was more successful and resonated stronger with me than "Cake," as did Moore's performance. But I'd definitely put Aniston ahead of Adams, Gugu, & Swank (I can't understand the high praise there), and perhaps on about par with Witherspoon.
Aniston is upping the stakes with SAG. They are sending screeners to the membership. This means only Jones and Aniston will have screeners out to everyone in SAG which def ups her chances of winning BA there.
No one has won a SAG award for film (all five categories) for at least the last two years who did not send a screener. SAG and AMPAS have matched on winners in 4 of the 5 categories in the same time period.
FINAL BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Congrats to Jason Travis who hit the best actress nominees right on the nose back on January 14th. See above.