SAG Predictions - Let's Make 'em
Friday, January 29, 2016 at 5:20PM The Screen Actors Guild Nominations will be held tomorrow at 5 PM PST and broadcast live on TNT and TBS and we'll probably live blog as we do. Who will the 100,000+ actors vote for? Voting ended earlier today at Noon so there's a quick turnaround between voting and the actual prize. So let's jump right in because yours truly is feeling daring. And don't make fun of me should I biff on ALL of these because I've never claimed to be any good at predicting anything other than Oscar.
ENSEMBLE - This is always the best category in theory and the least satisfying in practice (for many reasons). But who will win? With Spotlight and The Big Short battling it out for the Oscar's Best Picture prize they're obviously the safe money bets and I kind of want to go out on a limb with a no guts no glory call and suggest that Straight Outta Compton rides the constant tidal wave of the #OscarsSoWhite discussion for a surprise win and yet more editorials. So that's my alternate pick. I'm going to go with SPOTLIGHT in a tight finish with both Compton and The Big Short. But here's why I'm leaning this way: It's easy to picture it winning this even it loses the Oscar. I can't same the same thing in reverse for The Big Short. If the Big Short wins this it's all over and The Big Short is the locked Best Picture winner.
BEST ACTRESS -BRIE LARSON
BEST ACTOR - LEONARDO DICAPRIO
No sense debating these two as they're wholly locked up for Oscar wins at this point, no matter who they're battling it out with on the ballot.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - As a reminder Oscar nominees Mara, Vikander, McAdams, and Winslet are competing with the non-Oscar nominated Helen Mirren (Trumbo) for this prize. This is a tough cal since literally none of the films are real "hits" and you could make an argument for anyone really. While the Oscar's voting body, which is heavily older and male, seems likely to pick Vikander, the new "it girl" for the gold on February 28th, SAG might feel differently. Might Winslet repeat her Globe win? My guess: KATE WINSLET (in a close race all around with Vikander or even McAdams right behind.)
SUPPORTING ACTOR - With current Oscar frontrunner Sylvester Stallone out of the contest this should be interesting. Stallone's dominance has made Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) look like an also ran so maybe the heat for the former thought-to-be frontrunner will have dissipated? Wouldn't it be crazy to see both Room actors pick up trophies and have little Jacob Tremblay win? My guess is a surprise win for IDRIS ELBA -- since they loved Beasts of No Nation (consider that absolutely bizarre "Ensemble" nomination for a film with only 3 really substantial roles) with Rylance as alternate.
What are your predictions? Will you be watching?
Reader Comments (35)
Genuinely surprised that you're so confident about Brie Larson. I'm not sure who the alternative would be, but she just doesn't seem like a lock to me yet.
Could really be Elba, maybe partly as a make-up for his Oscar snub.
I really hope Spotlight takes this. Those newsroom scenes, you really see all the performers acting and working in tandem, even when they aren't saying anything. It isn't just rooms full of people waiting to deliver what obviously feel like scripted lines. They genuinely work well and are reactive in a way that emblematizes great ensemble acting. I'm thinking of the scene where Ruffalo has his outburst. I know that Ruffalo's performance is polarizing, but the every performer in that scene seems to have unique, appropriate and deeply felt reactions to what's going on in that scene and they really sell the dynamic of people who have worked in cluttered offices together for years. It would get my vote.
Supporting actress is the race that is still exciting, but if Vikander wins it's game over. Hoping Mara gets it so that GG/BFCA/SAG each get a different winner ie. we get a genuine race.
Cate Blanchett is not attending so I won't be watching. I'll look up speeches later and rooting for Idris Elba and Kate Winslet.
The SAG supporting categories are really interesting this year.
Supporting Actress feels like it could go any of three ways.
With Supporting Actor, do they vote for one of the two people who are nominated by the Academy, which would at least suggest a possible rival for Stallone? Or do they give it to one of the three people who didn't make the Oscar cut? If the latter and they give it to Elba, expect a thinkpiece storm afterward.
As for Ensemble, I hope it goes to Spotlight.
The Big Short has all the momentum which means people are watching it more recently and likely to vote that way.
I'm picking
Leo
Brie
Mark Ruffalo
Alicia
Winslet for supporting SAG love her.
I'm curious, why do you think Mara's the only Oscar nominee that isn't really contending?
I don't necessarily think a win for The Big Short means it's locked up for a Best Picture win. Little Miss Sunshine won PGA + SAG and still lost the Oscar. If Adam McKay wins the DGA, then yeah, that'll seal the deal, but I won't consider the race over unless that happens.
Also, the Supporting Actor winner here will be telling as far as Stallone's frontrunner status goes. I think if they do go with Idris Elba (or, less likely, Michael Shannon or Jacob Tremblay), it's in the bag for Stallone at the Oscars. Stallone has yet to lose to any of the guys he's up against at the Oscars, so since he's not nominated here, it's just a matter of seeing if either of those guys can pick up some traction. If it's Rylance or Bale, I will wait and see what BAFTA does before making my final prediction. But if they go for broke and give it to Idris Elba (which I think is more likely than a lot of people might expect), I might as well just Stallone my final prediction right then and there.
My guesses:
Ensemble- Spotlight (I actually feel it'll be The Big Short, but I'm going with Spotlight just because I *really* want this race to stay as interesting as possible, and imagine if PGA, DGA, and SAG all go for different movies)
Actor- Leo
Actress- Brie
Supporting Actor- Idris Elba (my head says Rylance, but I want to be one of the people who get to brag if Elba actually pulls it off)
Supporting Actress- Alicia Vikander
If Elba wins he'll be the FIRST person ever winning SAG award without Oscar nomination. So I doubt it. It's between Bale and Rylance.
hmmm. i agree SPOTLIGHT is taking ensemble but i think Bale will win Supporting. ACTORS **WORSHIP** him
Below is the ballot I submitted this morning, down to the wire (and I still hadn't seen all the nominated work). I vote for winners less than 50% of the time—my taste is usually too offbeat—but this is the most incongruous group of choices I have ever made. Y'all are going to think I'm crazy or worse for some of these.
First, the categories that don't require much if any explanation:
FILM: OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Mad Max: Fury Road
TV: OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
The Walking Dead
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Queen Latifah, Bessie
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
Transparent
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
Mad Men
FILM: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Brie Larson, Room
I went back and forth between Larson and Ronan, and back and forth… If Blanchett had been nominated for Truth, she would have been my pick, however.
And then...
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot.
I know that Jon Hamm has never won this award for this role, but he does have several SAG Ensemble awards (see above), and he did finally win the Emmy. And Rami Malek really kills in this. If the Globes and Critics Choice hadn’t been so good to this show, I might not have binge-watched it very recently. So there’s a story of how awards season can work. (And there is no guarantee that Malek will ever get nominated for this role again…)
TV: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: this show gets me revved up. It’s pure trash with a sex-positive (mostly), queer-friendly slant. And Davis makes the most of this role. Sorry, prestige and semi-prestige ladies in this category.
FILM: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Big Short
When in doubt, I go Bale…although I did not have much doubt here, despite the excellent competition (including Tremblay’s lead performance). This is one of Bale’s more interesting, off-kilter characterizations. The movie’s divisive, especially around here, but I liked it.
FILM: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Straight Outta Compton
I could have voted for any of the five for various reasons, but when it came down to it, this is the one that I most want to win. I’m just not that passionate about Spotlight or The Big Short, and I didn’t adore Beasts of No Nation or Trumbo. It would make me happy to see these guys be honored for their work. (These *six* guys, thanks to SAG’s bullshit rules.)
FILM: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Okay:
1) Loved Depp’s performance, but it was all performance, not much person there.
2) Redmayne was sweet, touching, zzzz.
3) I refuse to get on the DiCaprio “it’s time” train, not that he gave a bad performance.
Which leaves two performances that I very much admired, but in keeping with 2015, I’m not salivating over either of them. I chose the one of the two who I think has the better chance of upsetting, not the one who would have had a better chance of buying my vote with sexual favors.
FILM: OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Helen Mirren, Trumbo.
Don’t hate, don’t hate.
1) I was not going to vote for either of the two leading performances nominated here.
2) Thanks for playing, Rachel McAdams.
3) I just can’t with Winslet’s accent confusion in Steve Jobs. As much as I otherwise really liked her work, it really took me out of the film at times, and it remains one of the main things I remember about the film. (She was consistent within each act, but you just can’t go from less accent to more accent and then to somewhere else.)
4) When I finally saw Trumbo recently, I was completely baffled by all the Mirren fatigue I’d been reading about for weeks and weeks (on the Internet). While this is not a revelatory performance, it is solid and most definitely supporting. And this Hedda is a nasty piece of work. Sure, Mirren’s been a default nominee for ages, but that’s not her fault.
And there you have it, an atypical SAG member's ballot.
I really liked Larson in Room and she's in my top 10 of the year but I find it strange that it's such a lock this season when there are so many other great lead actress performances to choose from and with Vikander sucking up all of the 'it girl' conversations. But yeah I think if Ronan is going to make a move its either here or at Bafta but I am predicting Larson, Leo, Kate and Elba , and Straight Outta Compton for ensemble.
@Amir, I'm genuinely surprised that some of you here (and on other award sites) DON'T consider Larsen a lock. To me, she's as locked as Julianne Moore and Cate Blanchett were recently in that she'll win every major precursor (Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA) on the way to her Oscar win.
PS: To those who will undoubtedly claim that Ronan has just as much chance as Larsen to win Best Actress because her film is also nominated for Best Picture, keep in mind that Carey Mulligan's film An Education had the EXACT same nominations but that didn't put her anywhere near Sandra Bullock's inevitable victory. The problem with citing Brooklyn/An Education as signs of strength for their leading actress is that it's clear that neither of those films would've made it into the traditional 5 Best Picture lineup. Those films are only nominated because the lineup is now expanded whereas Room's Best Director nod indicates that it may have had a shot in a traditional 5 lineup.
I think I'm with you, Steph. Bree is pretty locked at this point. I think the hesitation comes from the fact that it's her first nomination and even though she's young, beautiful and talented, it still doesn't feel like she's very famous yet for someone who's about to win Best Actress. Like, if you talk to people who are not "movie people" (for lack of a better term) a lot of people still don't know who she is, which was not the case for a lot of the young ingenues who have won in recent years. I'm thinking Lawrence and Portman, for example. When they won I felt like they had a level of name-recognition with non-movie people, whether those people had seen their film or not. They also had prior nominations and top or high-billing roles in box office hits (Hunger Games and Star Wars). Bree Larson has none of those things and I honestly think that's where the a lot of the hesitation to call her a lock is coming from. That and the the small box office receipts for Room are giving people pause, but it doesn't matter. She's a lock. The voters know who she is at this point. I loved both Larson and Ronan, but Brooklyn doesn't seem to have a meta narrative behind it the way Room does and that performance is really quiet and subtle. I don't see her pulling enough votes away from Larson to derail this train.
Sometimes SAG can genuinely bring out some surprises. I mean, remember Johnny Depp winning for Pirates? I think Elba and Ronan could surprise,
@Paul Outlaw - I love the fact that you won't go along with the category fraud, and I didn't think Helen Mirren was so bad either. Doubt it will happen but good for you.
Compton for best ensemble would be fun and interesting but I think "The Big Short" is actually going to take this.
Regretfully, Brie Larson is probably going to win best actress but I honestly think Saoirse Ronan is better, and more people will have seen "Brooklyn".
I think both Larson and Vikander are getting easy wins which is a little aggravating for actresses like Emily Blunt, Jessica Chastain, Lily Tomlin, and Carey Mulligan who couldn't even get nominated, but that's the way it goes.
There's an awful lot of luck involved.
I'm also kinda surprised you're so sure of Larson's status, Nathaniel, 'cause you haven't talked much about it. How are you feeling about her apparently inevitable win? We know you were a fan before Room.
Room has actually returned to some theaters and is doing some business. Brie's seemingly inevitable win in addition to the BP and BD noms is creating a buzz. I've just never really bought into Ronan as a serious threat to win since the critics awards started coming in strong for Brie. Her movie and performance are just a bit too "pleasant" rather than "profound" in the minds of audiences.
@Paul Outlaw - I love you for voting for Amy Poehler in Parks and Rec :)
@ LadyEdith: If Larson loses to Ronan, chalk it up to the fact that my ballot choices usually don't win. But in this case, I think I actually voted with the herd.
My predictions: Larson, DiCaprio, Bale, Winslet, The Big Short.
Brie Larson's unknown status should not affect her chances. Unknowns have over come hurdles before (Kathy Bates).
@ Ez
Thanks, I just had to. She was so underrated (awards-wise) for her incredible work on this show and, frankly, I couldn't get excited about the seasons of the other four nominees, who are nothing to sneeze at. But I think it's going to go to any of them—awards magnet, awards perennial, shiny new thing, dramatic actress in a comedy—before it goes to Poehler.
^ Larson may have won most of the regional critics awards, but she lost with the three major critics groups (NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA). Ronan won NYFCC and was second place at NSFC and LAFCA, impressive considering the competition this year, and is on her second Oscar nomination. Brooklyn also earned more spots on top 10 lists than Room and is continuing to do well at the box office.
Larson's role and film are more baity, and she's likely locked to win the Oscar, unless Ronan wins SAG and/or BAFTA.
In the last 20 years, the "unknowns" who won Oscars on their first nomination (Hilary Swank, Marion Cotillard, Charlize Theron to a lesser extent) all won at least one out of the three major critics awards.
The Supporting categories seem up in the air. I will go with Mark Rylance (he is a respected stage actor and a lot actors will appreciate that) I am kind of leaning toward Winslet as well. I think Vikander and Mara will cancel each other out. Unless Spotlight gets a lot of love and McAdams swoops in, I think Winslet wins.
Steph- Sure, but she hasn't won all of those yet, so you're predicting she'll be a lock once she wins all of those. BAFTA especially isn't a lock at all.
@Amir, of course, you're right that I'm making a prediction and citing it as evidence but...let's come back tot his after SAG & BAFTA. That's how confident I am. :)
@Kieran Scarlett, not only is Larsen definitely "known" by voters now but she's a hell of a lot more famous than Hillary Swank was when she won for Boys Don't Cry. This isn't a problem for lovely young lasses and it won't be until the heavily male demo of the Academy changes.
My prediction:
Best Ensemble: Spotlight (w The Big Short a close 2nd
Best Actress: Larson
Best Actor: DiCaprio
Best Supp Actress: Vikander (w Winslet close behind)
Best Supp Actor: Rylance
Winslet has the unfair edge considering she has to content w 2 LEAD performance for the win here & Oscar
I wrote Ruffalo above but meant Rylance! But I wonder if Christian Bale has a better chance than anyone (except Paul Outlaw) has spoken of!
Amir is right about Brie though. There's no way Brie is a lock for BATA. Heck, she may even be in 5th place in that lineup. Don't forget Vikander is there too, along with 3 other performances the Brits loved wayyy more than Americans.
Squasher88 -- agreed that BAFTA isn't locked but it's important to note that the BAFTAs, like Critics Choice, will often toss their seeming favorites to be Oscar-predictive. (sigh)
That Ronan lost the Globe was a big indicator for me, since if any of the major Hollywood awards bodies were to be receptive to her, you'd think it would have been the HFPA.