Best Actress: An "Overdue" Narrative or Fresh Blood?
Sunday, May 1, 2016 at 11:15AM The next Best Actress race hasn't remotely started so we're at the "anything goes" stage. Sally Field is the only player thus far who feels like a distinct if long shot possibility. With a Golden Globe Comedy nod highly likely for Hello My Name is Doris she'll be discussed again at year's end reminding people of her endearing star turn in the sleeper hit. But what to make of the Best Actress race. Most or all of the contenders are yet to come and there are no sure things.
Sure, Viola Davis looks good on paper to repeat her Tony win in 2010 for Fences as the long suffering wife of a trash collector who was once a promising ball player. But there are some "what ifs" involved. Denzel Washington hasn't yet proved he's special as a director and when the revival in which they starred on Broadway hit not everyone agreed on her category placement with some theater awards deeming her "featured" (the stage's term for "supporting") rather than lead like the Tonys. And then there's the not small matter of whether the Fences will be ready in time for a release and a big Oscar push. If Viola doesn't dominate, will we have an Overdue Narrative this year or a Fresh Blood moment in Best Actress?
Consider: La Pfeiffer (3 nominations... deserved many more. Waiting to win since 1988); The Bening (4 nominations... waiting to win since 1990); Amy Adams (5 generous nominations. Waiting to win since 2005); Viola Davis (2 nominations... waiting to win since 2008). With Jessica Tandy, Hilary Swank, Rachel Weisz, and Meryl Streep winning their rightful Oscars there's ample opportunity for a "make up" year in Best Actress.
But then again not every leading race sees a "career win" like Julianne Moore's or Leonardo DiCaprio's recently. Do you think 2016 will be an old guard year like that or a new blood situation (Negga? Pike?)? Or will it be somewhere inbetween (Emily Blunt...waiting so long for a first nomination? Jessica Chastain, twice nominated thus far?). Check the Best Actress chart and make a call in the comments.
Reader Comments (79)
I'd be pretty happy with a three-way-tie between Adams, Davis and Bening. In fact, I think that's the only way I could be happy.
Goran: Yeah, it would be tough to have any combination of those three nominated, because it would be hard to watch any of them lose again.
I'm rooting for Viola Davis. Her two nominations (she and Whoopi Golberg are the only black actress to receive two nominations) were really deserving.
It pisses me off Pfeiffer and Bening have returned at the same time while Viola Davis waits for a historic coronation. Also, my Chastain being Oscar-less (Best Actress only please) she'll have to wait for a win here at a latter date. I take some relief in the idea Passengers is no Gravity nor is the category dead enough for a Martin level inclusion so I can rest easy seeing no Lawrence in the final five. Adams needs to have several seats if her performance is not there. Too many nominations for merely showing up. Streep could miss out again and that is not a bad thing by any stretch.
If the film is good, it'll be Viola Davis in a cakewalk. Previous snub + stardom from TV + inevitable need to honor black actors after last year's debacle = easy Oscar win.
Amy Adams, meanwhile, will have to find her 'Still Alice.'
I'm all in for a Viola / Annette showdown. May the best woman win!
I hope for my own sanity that Adams goes nowhere. Another endless round of interviews about the paparazzi and how she struggled for years and did dinner theater, will drive me nuts. Last year was so nice without her.
As mentioned by Marcos, one more nod and Viola becomes the most nominated black actress in history. The narrative writes itself, and she has won for this role before, so it would be a fantastic moment all around. If the movie's done in time and it's handled even decently, I have to imagine she's winning.
BUT if the film takes too long, it looks wide open. One more nomination for Adams and she ties the record for most losses for an actress. The internet seems less enthused by her, for some reason, but I'd give her just as many nods (though not for the same films) in my personal awards. After her stunning 1-2 punch in 2013, I think voters will want to reward her. If it's not a clear win, though, they may pass as they did with Julianne for years until they can lock her in for a winning role.
Plus, Chastain. She may have the problem of matching her 2011 output, which is close to impossible, but I have to imagine they want to find an excuse to reward her. Hate to say it but they'll be more eager with her than Bening or Pfeiffer.
I just have that Pfeiffer feeling with the TV show coming up also,she maybe out to win and will hopefully campaign.
Nothing against Sally or Sue, but their movies seem way too lightweight to grab an Oscar nomination.
I hope things work out for Negga. She could really go places if she had some more (awards) recognition.
On paper, I agree that Viola Davis and Emily Blunt look to have the best odds (although not saying much at this time of year) - juicy roles, well-liked, great prior performances, and they feel under-recognized. Viola in particular is so well liked and awesome, I feel like she could have a chance to win even if she underwhelms - depending on her competition. Also, the diversity media attention definitely works in her favor - think about it - if she gives one of the top 3 lead actress performances and then someone young and white like JLaw or Rosamund Pike win, twitter would have a frenzy.
Amy Adams is on the other end of the spectrum where she feels over-recognized at this point. With that said, never count out Denis Villeneuve - is there ANY reason to think he won't get a fantastic performance out of her? All it will take is one truly undeniable performance to turn the narrative in her favor.
Also, I really like the consciousness voter reminders. Those are cool!
It'd be awful if they do the category fraud routine with Davis
Davis is going Lead just as McDormand did when she was not for Fargo, same as Lawrence when she won, same as Streep for several of her Lead nominations (Ironweed, One True Thing, Prada, Julie and Julia).
I really hope it's Amy Adams year, only because some of her stans are so insufferable and will never shut up if she loses again. Mind you she's only deserved 3 of her nominations (Junebug, The Master, American Hustle). Her other two were total fillers. Her GG win for Big Eyes was a joke, was so glad she was snubbed that year. Praying she wins so we don't have to deal with her at another roundtable like summer mentioned. I don't even hate or dislike her despite how harsh I sound but it's really annoying whenever she's in the running during awards season. She gets nominated almost every time she does anything meanwhile other actresses continue to be overlooked again and again for even a nomination. If Viola wins the Amy stans are going to be unbearable and probably say she's only winning because she's black.
There are a lot of actresses one really wants to see win an Oscar before it's too late: Benning, Huppert, Basset, Davis (though somehow it seems like Davis has more time on the clock.) There's a much smaller list of those whose lack of an Oscar seems genuinely painful and unjust. Two that always come to mind quickly on this list are Glenn Close and, yes, Michelle Pfeiffer. If Pfeiffer's performance is worthy, and there's any justice at all, she'll get the push she deserves by her studio, though I have to say, it would be a hard call if it was between her and Davis.
Pfeiffer, Pike, Blunt, Davis and Negga for the nominations. To chose between these women is gonna be a very tough call. Unless Davis is going Blue Jasmine on us and Denzel shows his magic in direction. Lots of IF
Prayer circle for Adams, Lawrence, Chastain and Streep sitting this one out. Let some other chics play, senoritas!
What about Marion Cotillard in the Xavier Dolan movie?
There is no way JLaw will be nominated for Passengers (aka Laid in Space). I am look forward to seeing what the real actresses deliver us this year.
Davis role is so supporting, and will certainly lose to actresses with true leading part.
Adams feels more like a winner in supporting, maybe in her fifties. A Melissa Leo case.
Is Fences even filming? At May 1, tick tock. Pfeiffer would have to really step up to be able to connect again. Class favorites: Viola, Emily, Amy. But someone like an Annete would be fine with me too. It's only bingo!
In a perfect world they can all win an Oscar in the next two years. Amy wins actress this year, while Annette wins supporting actress for Warren's long gestating Howard Hughes biopic. Next year Viola wins best actress as Fences wasn't ready in time this year and Michelle wins supporting actress for the Aronofsky movie.
Why is Amy Adams overdue? Why?
The fact that she has 5 nominations and Nicole Kidman only had 3 was a sin
Streep is so in. Her film is getting terrific reviews as is her performance. Streep's film and Fences are being handled by Paramount in the US. Any beats Streep goes Lead and Davis goes Supporting?
Patricia Neal and Frances McDormand receive no complaints from the consensus having supporting roles campaigned Lead and winning. All this stay in your lane for Viola Davis mirrors the criticism she received for The Help. Forget it. The Academy will follow through in nominating her in Best Actress, with a strong possibility of her winning.
White actors are never questioned going Lead when they have limited screen time or are simply a co-lead (Hopkins, Dern, Day-Lewis). But Washington for his second Oscar and Forest Whitaker for his first get saddled with it.
Streep and Grant should be an ongoing screen couple. Seem charming. Miss Helen Mirren for supporting nominee, Las Vegas Critics association.
Somehow, I don't think the outside world remembers Pfeiffer's greatness as well as TFE does. Voters might consider a nomination award enough for a "comeback," not unlike Michael Keaton in '14 and Sylvester Stallone in '15, leaving the win to someone like Davis or Adams,
How can everyone say this actress should or shouldn't be nominated when the movies are not out there yet to even judge????
I didn't realize all of these actressual-ness, the year has been quiet, no? Good reminder!
Someone better be ready to call 911 if Fences does not result in a victory. Wow. Remember we usually film the movie first.
I would really love a win for either Benning, Pfeiffer, or Davis.
But otherwise I would pick Blunt. I think so much depends on the campaign the studio is able to afford, timing, and luck. There is a herd mentality that seems to take over that annoys me but when the herd decides to go with someone, they win.
I believe Viola has the best chance, however I'm not convinced that "Fences" will be finished in time.
Michelle would need a comeback campaign similar to Keaton, I do think people have forgotten her.
Fences filming turns back the clock in Pittsburgh
Fences has most of its revival cast. Everyone is more than prepared to get through their scenes successfully and quickly. I'm sure a rough cut can be made once shooting is wrapped sooner than anticipated for those concern it won't be ready in time.
This is a movie about the acting. Washington is certainly not into the flamboyant when in the director's chair style wise. I think Davis and Washington are secure for their categories nomination wise. If it receives further attention in other categories more power to it.
Washington hasn't shown much as a director, but he did get one of the earliest brilliant Davis performances in ANTWONE FISHER, so...
I worry BEAT-UP LITTLE SEAGULL will go nowhere and the film will just come and go. Unless it's utterly brilliant, the director and cast doesn't really scream big media-friendly comeback.
Are we even sure Fences is going to be released this year? Supposedly it JUST started filming in Pittsburgh. I really hope they don't rush this just so they can have a late year awards push. I want Davis to win an Oscar but I REALLY want this film to be good too. We saw recently how an electric, modern classic play (August: Osage County) can lose its magic on screen when the wrong director is behind it.
I'm dubious about Pfeiffer, but I am very optimistic about Annette Bening. I'm never feeling Amy Adams so whatever about that. I did like Sicario, so maybe Story of Your Life will be up to par.
What about Marion Cotillard for From the Land of the Moon? Was recently picked up by Sundance Selects and they've succeeded in getting Cotillard and Rampling nominations the past two years. They seem to have faith in the film.
Really enjoyable predictions and comments.
I'm glad everyone is cheering Fences on, but I feel that people are overestimating its Oscar potential. The furor reminds me of early 2013, when people were going ga-ga for August: Osage County. That one ended up underwhelming. It's hard to adapt plays to the screen.
Maybe pundits are underestimating La La Land, with its hot stars and director. I can see it having a Moulin Rouge kind of appeal. Stone could certainly win a Globe, thus greatly increasing her chances of getting nominated for the Oscar.
I dreamed a dream in time gone by
When hope was high
And life worth living
/3rtful, you really need to calm down and read fences play script, and you'll know Davis is absolutely supporting.
So far it seems like a bloodbath, more or less like the Emmys for Best Mini/TV movie actress! I mean, Washington, Dunst, Paulson, Gaga, Huffman, Lansbury and MacDonald.
I would just love it if it's gonna be:
Bening
Chastain
Davis
Pfeiffer
Adams
But I wouldn't have known who to choose! All these ladies are overdue. Can it be a 5-way tie? Lol
Of course it all depends on whether the movie is good or not. I see Davis being nommed if Fences is handled properly, but is it gonna be in lead or supporting? Cause the role can easily be campaigned for both imo.
Current foolish prediction:
Streep
Blunt
Chastain
Adams
Davis
Considering your comment about how Davis's role was considered supporting by some outlets in theatre awards, won't they most likely campaign her in the supporting category here as well? That should make it much easier for her to win and we know that, despite all the category fraud complaints, that dodgy strategy does still work (hi, Alicia!).
/3rtful - i would argue that everyone is questioned about everything when it comes to oscar campaigning. There's not a racial divide in actors/studios being criticized -- everyone is.It's impossible to please everyone as we see each year.
Montage -- agreed on Kidman only having 3 being disgusting. but eat least she has an oscar and 3 noms. many brilliant people have fared worse.
Jono -- they are rushing it for this year and since it's a drama post production won't be that difficult.
What it Eva Green is fantastic again in a Tim Burton movie and her dark Mary Poppins becomes unstoppable?
If Viola's role is truly Supporting and she attempts to go Lead again (see 'The Help,) hopefully those who scream 'Category Fraud' will continue to object...
Re FENCES being finished in time... didn't SELMA only start filming in April? Or maybe March. Either way, that turned out good all things considered. Filming can't take more than a month and a bit, right? And I get the sense from his earlier works that Denzel isn't the fussiest of directors so I can see it zipping through production - especially since he and Viola and so many of the rest of the cast are already well familiar with their roles to not really need coaching. Hopefully.
Davis should go supporting in Fences. I saw it on Broadway ... it is a true blue supporting role.
Amy Adams is dulling her brand with the Lois Lane BS. I'm starting to think she's more limited in ability than I thought.
Ask yourself this would Streep have gone supporting for Adaptation had there not been an alternate vehicle to push herself in Best Actress (The Hours)? Because if she had the suffering wife role in Fences no one here nor elsewhere would question her campaign in the lead category. Treat Davis with the same kind of looking the other way you would give to Streep.
knowing nothing about the play, I would bet davis goes lead. if it's a borderline role, she has achieved a status to 'justify' being placed in that category.
Viola Davis won the Tony for BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY, so I don't see why she couldn't go for Best Actress at the Oscars.
I am all for Viola being nominated, but only if she deserves it. There seems to be a crazy drive to give her an Oscar for a movie that has not been filmed, completed, edited, scored or reviewed, and I am not down with that.
May -- but that's the way fans are each and every year about someone. :)