Saturday
Apr302016
April Foolish Predictions!
Saturday, April 30, 2016 at 9:26PM 
It's finally complete - the first predictions of the new film year, affectionally dubbed "April Foolish Predictions" by yours truly, just under the wire before May begins. I've opted to go for a year with a lot of new blood in various categories but the supporting categories have no sure things so it's like throwing darts blindly... possibly not even towards a wall... in those categories.
Enjoy fresh charts on ACTRESS, ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS, and SUPPORTING ACTOR as well as the General Prediction Chart for a summary.
Report back!
Reader Comments (22)
'Eye in the Sky' deserves some love. Aaron Paul for Best Supporting Actor y'all. Aisha Takow for Best Supporting Actress. Alan Rickman for best Alan Rickman! C'mon Nathaniel!
Pitt has three acting nominations. Since his win is for Best Picture it should not be included in your stats. Washington has six Oscar nominations. Streep is a nomination shy of twenty.
I feel good about Fences and Loving adding color to the acting lineups this year.
Thanks for completing these. As always, the right mix of good sense and wild cards. Love that Margot Robbie mention.
Helen Mirren should probably be on your long list for Actress for EYE IN THE SKY.
And do consider Tracy Letts for Supporting Actor for what is reputedly a show-stopping scene in INDIGNATION, opposite Logan Lerman. The film comes out in July, so may be forgotten, but worth listing.
ACTRESS
Just imagine the 'overdue' lineup of Davis, Adams, Bening, Williams and Pfeiffer. This will NEVER happen but who will you choose as the winner, sight unseen?
Having said that, I fear the overdue narrative for Amy Adams because, well, she's not.
Rooting so hard for Viola. Hope the movie version matches her talent level. I want Academy Award Nominee Emily Blunt in my life. I have high hope for Emma in La La Land ang glad to see Rosamund in new projects, finally.
SUP ACTRESS
Lupita is NOT the lead in the Queen of Katwe?! Now I'm pissed. Elle Fanning sure did secure the most interesting projects for her age range, didn't she? 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls at Parties and The Neon Demon. Where's her sister? I wonder.
The wildest card of them all is Laura Linney in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2. I kid. When the actress wth that much talent sunk to that level, The Apocalypse is upon us, you guys.
ACTOR
Rooting for Keaton to slay it but the trailer left me a bit cold. Pitt will always be the most under-appreciated leading man of our time.
SUP ACTOR
Alden Ehrenreich's turn in Hail, Caesar is a Star-is-Born moment. He might not have the gold but probably snag the role of young Han Solo because of it.
If Armie Hammer is the only person from the cast of The Birth of a Nation to be nom'd, all hell will break loose.
Overall, we're likely to see more diversity in the nomination lineup because of a lot (more than usual) interesting projects.
1. Don't buy any of the major categories for Silence. It's written by Jay Cocks, and I don't buy critics now are going to give this that soft a pass.
2. I'd buy Tilda Swinton for Doctor Strange before I buy Margot Robbie for Suicide Squad getting an Oscar nod. Marvel has a strong track record of thirteen films without a misfire and it's brewing into a question of WHEN, not IF, they eventually go for one in some sort of across the board way and Swinton is a conventionally respected actress. DC has been the definition of failing upward and, at best, this is another case for Margot Robbie's first nomination, not what actually gets it.
3. Really hope this year manages to break "the hashtag" permanently and it NEVER has to pop up again.
I agree that Helen Mirren is more likely for "Eye in the Sky" than "Collateral Beauty". In terms of that script - Winslet and Knightley have roles that are more baity than Mirren. But because it's a comedy/drama I think a globe is more probable, if there is any awards attention.
Crossed fingers for Emily Blunt - would love to see her get a nomination for "Girl on the Train".
oooo, i wouldn't mind an Elle Fanning nod. She's much more interesting than her sister. (oops.)
Jija, that best actress line up would slay me dead. Perfection.
Although, despite being 5th for me in that line-up, I hate to see Adams nommed and lose again.
If Allied is good, I'm really feeling it for Brad Pitt next year.
Wow, that Fences cast! Stephen Henderson is an actor I really like that I don't see enough of.
I think MVP of Lalaland will be JK Simpson. I think he will be a delight and a surprise in a musical comedy.
What a great year for Michael Shannon, someone I always find deeply satisfying to watch.
Not enough women directors even considered. I'm fatigued that pictures directed by men are the first consideration for important features.
As usual, great choices by Nathaniel. Wide ranging, eclectic, appreciative of the artists, acknowledging originality.
If they followed the book, Neeson is lead, like Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada, Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland, Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York and Denzel Washington in Training Day. That means, a co-lead with less screentime that dominates the storyline, played by an actor with huge charisma.
There must be a Swanker lurking out there somewhere to hijack the race.
If Alden Ehrenreich can't make it beyond the FYC section - we'll have to keep him in the conversation by tipping his name in these awards race comment sections.
I'm suddenly very excited for 20th Century Women. And for the Viola Davis Oscar (this is 100% already, right?)
Bening is not wishful thinking. Her last two nominations show once she's an actual contender no one is denying her the nomination.
The Girl Gone actress and Blunt are wishful thinking.
Eckhart did an interview with Howard Stern where he trashed his famous female co-stars for stinking under the hot movie lights during love scenes. Do you think people in the industry will protect him when he has made zero dollars for them as a leading man?
If your predictions come true there'll be 6 non-white actors and actresses nominated. And there's an additional 4 in tier 2. That would be a welcome change, right?
Maybe there's a member of acting royalty you're overlooking: Judi Dench in Tulip Fever. However, the mere mention of the film makes me shudder at the prospect of yet another nomination for the over-rated Christoph Waltz. I mean, he`s good, but he ALWAYS plays the same character.
I'm kind of burned out in Scorsese in general, but "Silence" sounds like yet ANOTHER way for him to make a movie about an all-male club abiding by some code of honor I can't especially relate to. That said, the Academy will probably love it.
@ Jija and Mojo:
Dakota / Elle = Venus / Serena?
ACTRESS
I think Kristen Stewart is gonna make a splash this year. She has four promising movies out this year: Personal Shopper, Cafe Society, Certain Women and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Marion Cotillard has four promising movies out this year: Allied, From The Land of The Moon, It's Only The End of The World and Assassin's Creed
Hopefully Rosamund Pike is gonna make a splash with HHhH, A United Kingdom and The Bends
Isabelle Huppert in Things To Come??
Saoirse Ronan in The Seagull or Annette Bening?
ACTOR
Gabriel Luna is gonna make a splash this year in Transpecos. The movie has been a hit according to this lovely site.
I would be over the moon if Tom Hanks started gaining traction for A HOLOGRAM FOR THE KING, which I think he's really touching in and is some of his best work in quite some time, rather than SULLY, which seems to be pretty standard fair.
@PaulOutlaw omg so true!
Did you forget about Cafe Society because I don't see it listed anywhere?
I also forgot that I think Aaron Eckhart might have a chance with Bleed for This too. Looks like he gained some weight for the role and partly shaved his head or used a bald cap. Plus, he's playing a real life person in that one as well.
I haven't heard that much buzz about the film or his performance, but what I have heard has been positive so far.