Final Oscar Nomination Predictions Complete!
Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 8:35AM ... unless I change my mind Sunday night.
Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor
In both of these categories after much tinkering, jigsaw reconfigurations, and what ifs I said to myself something I rarely say to myself even though I shouldn't be so stingy with these words "you're overthinking it". So I'm going for no surprises rather than surprises in both categories. I do however strongy believe that if someone misses in Best Actress it's either Portman (yes really) or Streep and the replacements is Annette Bening (who should be competing for the win but we can't always have nice things, now can we?). If I have a last minute change of heart, I think I'm going to predict a surprise Portman snub and a Bening nomination. Streep seems most vulnerable of the top five in theory (not a lot of excitement about her film or performance... just her being Streep and that awesome Golden Globe speech) but with so much support still for so many women, her default-to-Streep advantage will probably come into play.
In supporting actor I was toying with a Ben Foster surprises scenario, because even after the Globe win and BAFTA nomination I don't totally buy the Aaron Taylor-Johnson buzz. I've resisted predicting Lucas Hedges most of the year (the only man in that lineup who I think is vulnerable) because of his age. Though he'll be the 8th youngest male acting nominee in supporting EVER at age 20, I think the Best Picture lock-up for his vehicle and Casey Affleck's likely #1 placements on a huge number of ballots should give him just the boost he needs.
Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress | Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural | Animation & Documentaries
Reader Comments (65)
If I don't hear Meryl Streep's name, I'll be very happy. As much as I love her, I am getting annoyed that she gets nominated for who she is. Come on, who doesn't want more deserving nominees like Ruth Negga, Annette Bening, Isabelle Huppert, or whoever.
"the people thinking that Portman will be snubbed is completely wishful thinking on their parts."
Remember when people were predicting the film would be another Diana or Grace of Monaco (even though it was directed by Pablo Larrain, boasted a highly regarded script from the Blacklist, and was produced by Aronofsky)?
Lead Actress is the toughest category to predict this year, which is so unusual. I think the only lock is Emma Stone. Remaining lineup is a crap shoot. Be prepared for surprises.
Adams
Bening
Portman
Stone
Streep
@ Joe
I'm not ruling Fanning out until after the nominations are announced.
You predict Portman to possibly miss out? Of all contenders? Seriously? 😂
Back on 13 April 2016 on Nathaniel's "April Foolish Predictions" post, I predicted "Arrival", "Sully", and "La La Land" (and Amy Adams in a side bar for "Arrival") to get nominations. I see all but "Sully" crossing the finish line on Tuesday, but I certainly cannot consider that a 'snub' at this point. The biggest surprise for me would be if there were ten nominees for "Best Picture" - given the number of years with nine nominees, will we ever see that happen under the current system in my lifetime?
I am not on board with the theory of the Academy cooling on JACKIE, and am predicting it for four nods (Actress, Original Screenplay, Costume Design and Score). We will see in a few days who is right, I guess.
I'm gonna be very happy when I hear Meryl Streep's name, can't wait. It's great to be a Meryl Streep fanatic because she's got recognized one way or another for almost every year, so I guess it must be really hard for the people who doesn't really care for her.
PS sorry JACKIE for FIVE nods (Best Picture as well)
Other out-there predictions of mine (I have just finished tallying up my guesses):
- not as much love for HIDDEN FIGURES as people expect (2 nods - Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actress for Monae, not Spencer)
- not for LION, either (two noms, but one of them big - Picture and Supporting Actor (no Kidman), so it's the SELMA of 2016)
- four out of five nominated films in Animated Feature get two nominations (Visual Effects for KUBO, Original Song for MOANA and ZOOTOPIA, and Foreign Language Feature for ZUCCHINI)
- OJ to get two nominations (Documentary and Editing)
- FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS to suffer, only getting two tech nominations (Costume Design and Score)
(Sorry, keep hitting "Create Post" prematurely!)
I'm seeing Jackie as kind of this year's Steve Jobs: an interesting biopic which ended up losing a lot of awards steam and looking DOA but then come nominations day still getting the acting nominations everyone suspected.
I just keep thinking about Hidden Figures.
When I see all the slates of 5 white actresses for Best Actress, I keep seeing the 3 protagonists in Hidden Figures being told, "that's just the way it is".
If pressed, people might say:
We nominate that one because she's young and cute.
We nominate this one because we always nominate her.
We nominate this other one because we never nominate her.
But we just nominate the best. You just didn't happen to make it this year. That's just the way it is.
And we don't mean to be rude, but your movie was too subtle, too populist, too indie, too arty, too straightforward, and your character wasn't that interesting, important, or complicated. There's a perfectly good supporting category, you know?
My personal feeling is that some of the Best Actress "locks" are not the best performances of the year, and that there's plenty of room for the excellent performances of both Henson and Negga.
Anyone but Meryl would be fine with me. Her performance is the weakest of the lot.
Re: Supporting Actor
Predicting Grant will miss and Taylor-Johnson and Hedges will sneak in.
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