What on earth will be nominated for Adapted Screenplay?
Saturday, November 25, 2017 at 2:00PM 
Past Oscar years have often had an imbalance in the screenplay categories, with original being the designated place for edgy (for Oscar at least) critical darlings and adapted screenplay being the place where all the prestige Best Pictures gather to receive their admirer. But old rules are going away, "prestige" has lost meaning, and this year nearly all the critical darlings AND consensus Best Picture likelies have been deemed "original" -it's seriously stacked, just look at the updated chart.
So what gets nominated for Adapted in this vacuum? Here's an alphabetical list of 15 possibilities but beyond Call Me By Your Name none of them seem like safe bets, exactly. So which way does this go? After scratching my head I've made a guess on the chart but I'm eager to hear what you're thinking on that matter.
- Beguiled
- Blade Runner 2049
- Call Me By Your Name
- The Disaster Artist
- Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
- Last Flag Flying
- Logan
- The Lost City of Z
- Molly's Game
- Mudbound
- Stronger
- Victoria and Abdul
- Wonder
- Wonder Woman
- Wonderstruck
Reader Comments (43)
I feel increasingly confident that Wonder Woman will get a screenplay nomination: they'll probably want to give WW *something,* but it probably won't crack best picture and its technical aspects are fine, but don't exactly demand recognition, and screenplay's wide open.
Hmm. I'm actually not sure about Molly's Game getting in. Sorkin has, officially, two nominations and, unofficially, three nominations. (First there's an original screenplay nod for 1998's Bulworth, where he pulled an uncredited re-write, then a win for THE SOCIAL NETWORK, which got across the board masterpiece reviews and then an afterglow nod for Moneyball.) Yes, the year being...freaking barren...helps.
I'd say:
Lock:
1. Call Me By Your Name
Near Lock:
2. Mudbound
Probable, but not certain:
3. The Disaster Artist (The writing culture has only become more and more fascinated with bad movies since Ed Wood, such that I don't buy writers aren't going to vote for this thing in droves.)
Maybe:
4. Wonder Woman (For a lot of things, but most especially for realizing that the initial version of the ice cream gag was always TERRIBLE for Wonder Woman. Harley Quinn, Poison Ivy, Mandy from Billy and Mandy, those are characters where I could imagine the "not for Wonder Woman" part of the gag making sense for them.)
5. Molly's Game
6. Wonder
7. Last Flag Flying (Yeah, not sure I buy Linklater is a likely nominee. His three prior nominations are all for obvious high watermarks in his career (2 for the Before franchise and 1 for Boyhood), not filler slots like, say, Woody Allen getting nominations for Mighty Aphrodite or Deconstructing Harry. A warning sign that Linklater was actually becoming...that...for the writers branch would have been prior nominations for Orson Welles & Me or Bernie.)
As you've mentioned in the past, the screenplay category is often the place to honor movies and films that the Oscars don't quite want to include in Picture or Director. With this in mind, I'm thinking Call Me By Your Name: prestige source with buzz
Last Flag Flying: simple, cookie-cutter storytelling plus ode to old Hollywood
Mudbound: diversity box
Wonder Woman: a great place to honor the movie event of the year
and either The Beguiled, The Disaster Artist, or Molly's Game for the fifth spot (I would probably include Molly's Game if they hadn't surprisingly omitted Sorkin from Steve Jobs two years ago).
I think those first four check a lot of boxes for the Academy.
You're predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay are exactly the same as mine xD
Have you been checking my blog? eheheheheh
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Honestly, I think most predictions folks are underestimating MOLLY'S GAME Oscar chances. Since Sorkin got a "surprise snub" for STEVE JOBS, I can see the AMPAS go for him (as a screenwriter) in his directorial debut plus Chastain (who has also been overlooked for A MOST VIOLENT YEAR and MISS SLOANE) and Elba (atrocious snub for BEASTS OF NO NATION). I'm confident about screenplay and actress, not so much about Elba in Supporting Actor.
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And THE BEGUILED... Loved it! Not strong enough for Best Picture and Best Director, but can have a nice shot at Best Adapted Screenplay (and Cinematography and Costume Design)
LOCK AND WILL WIN: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
SHOUL BE NOMINATED: MUDBOUND / BLADE RUNNER 2049
MAYBE: DISASTER ARTIST, MOLLY'S GAME, LOST CITY OF Z
Get Out a lock for a screenplay nomination? That’s a real ballsy call. Remember this is a genre film which in and of itself makes it far from a sure thing this early in the season.
Adapted screenplay is usually very competitive but this year is strikingly lacking. The good news is that there are more good original screenplays being made. The other good news is that it gives James Ivory a clear path to a well-deserved first Oscar.
1. Call me By Your Name (100% the frontrunner and the best place to honor the film as well as legend James Ivory)
...
2. Mudbound (this would actually be a big get for Netflix)
...
3. Wonder Woman (seems like a good place to honor one of the year's biggest and most beloved movies)
4. Last Flag Flying (they've nominated Linklater here multiple times, but I dunno, this movie has sort of already disappeared)
5. The Beguiled (this may be wishful thinking on my behalf, but Coppola made history this year at Cannes and there are surely some big fans of her in AMPAS)
What a ghost town. That said, at this point, I like CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, MUDBOUND, THE DISASTER ARTIST, VICTORIA AND ABDUL (underestimate this thing at your own peril) and THE BEGUILED, in that order.
This is the most difficult category to predict!! Right now, I don’t know...
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Mudbound
Wonder Woman
Wait, is "Wonder Woman" for sure an Adapted Screenplay, because the character was pre-existing? Does that mean that technically all Marvel and DC movies would be considered adapted as well, whether or not it's drawing on specific stories from the comics? Interesting.
Rooting for Wonderstruck!
First They Killed My Father is another possibility.
I don't think Wonder Woman gets a nod here. In fact, I think Thor: Ragnorak is more likely to get a nomination in this category, although I don't think that's going to happen, either.
Call Me is getting in and winning. Wonder is a huge hit right now and while the trailer is dreadful, it's actually a very good film from the writer/director who also brought us The Perks of Being a Wallflower. Mudbound seems like a solid bet, and when it comes to writing awards, Aaron Sorkin seems likely. That leaves one slot. I'd love to see a surprise nod for The Lost City of Z, but feel like it didn't get the traction. Logan and Wonder Woman are both certainly possible, but my guess is Victoria & Abdul gets love from some of the older Academy members.
Weird category this year. If MOLLY'S GAME buzz rallies when it opens at Christmas, that could help its chances. It feels like VICTORIA & ABDUL and THE DISASTER ARTIST could get in, but mainly if Dench and Franco do as well. If WONDER continues to build steam, then maybe. WONDERSTRUCK should get some craft nominations so won't look so out of place here.
Is there a foreign language film we're underestimating? Besides FIRST THEY KILLED MY FATHER, which faces the same Netflix problem as MUDBOUND. LAST FLAG FLYING and STRONGER seem to have sunk at the box office and do non-actressexuals really care enough about THE BEGUILED to bring it back?
Would WONDER WOMAN be the first superhero film ever nominated for its screenplay? I could see it getting a Writers' Guild nomination but the Oscars feels like wishful thinking to me.
The Beguiled and Mudbound, two novels where each chapter is narrated by a different character. Makes for very good reading and for an appreciation of the psychology of all the characters.
But "Blade Runner 2049" is a terrible script- a story that was so simple it could have been a 1/2 hour twilight zone . "Victoria and Abdul" is a sure thing
Don't underestimate "Wonder". It's a big hit and got pretty good reviews.
I also think Wonder is going to be nominated here.
I always forget that despite being maybe our only celebrity screenwriter (who isn't also a director... until now), Aaron Sorkin is nowhere near a shoo-in and that his only Oscar nominations are for The Social Network* and Moneyball.
Meanwhile, the Golden Globes, theoretically tougher competition because they don't distinguish between original and adapted, have given him trophies for The Social Network and Steve Jobs as well as nominations for A Few Good Men, The American President, Charlie Wilson's War, and Moneyball.
I wonder if there was a TV bias or if he's just come up in 6th place a lot...
I, too, think WONDER is a likely nominee, not just for screenplay but for Picture. It's this year's HIDDEN FIGURES: a feel good film out of nowhere that might just rack up major nods if it catches some breaks and the studio really gives it a push.
Alex: First, Sorkin has two official nominations, but if you count uncredited re-writes, he can, technically, lay claim to a third for Bulworth. Second, think about the ultimate fields: If A Few Good Men being a nominee means A River Runs Through It or Enchanted April missing out? If The American President being a nominee means Toy Story missing out? If Charlie Wilson's War being a nominee means Away From Her missing out? If Steve Jobs being a nominee means The Martian, Brooklyn or ESPECIALLY Carol missing out? Yeah. I'm not weeping over Sorkin not getting nominations he doesn't really deserve.
If THE DEATH OF STALIN had a U.S. release date I would put money on that. Armando Iannucci got nominated in 2009 for IN THE LOOP in this category.
I'm thinking
1. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
2. MUDBOUND
3. THE DISASTER ARTIST
4. MOLLY'S GAME
5. WONDER WOMAN
Alt. BLADE RUNNER 2049
And the existence of Wonder also took some of the "let's reward _______ for being a critically acclaimed box office success" votes from Wonder Woman. And Wonder is also a lot easier vote for voters than Wonder Woman.
at this point it's choose any four films to lose to james ivory
and i'm fine with that
"Their Finest" would be a good candidate for Best Adapted Screenplay. I've read the book "Their Finest Hour and a Half" by Lissa Evans, and I liked the screenplay better. Lone Scherfig is a really great director. She tells a good story, and the narrative is really respected.
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, The Disaster Artist (a movie about making movies!)... then I just don't know. What a baffling category. I almost think LOGAN will get in there more than WONDER WOMAN.
I'm wondering if one of this year's original movies is going to suddenly become adapted. THE POST and I, TONYA could surely find some newspaper article to be adapted from.
Wonder Woman isn't going anywhere beyond a couple of technical nods, and people are underestimating Molly's Game.
Racial controversies probably (justifiably) killed any chances for The Beguiled, especially in this category.
Wonder is going to be nominated here.
Dave, I was thinking that, too! In the case of WONDER WOMAN, it would definitely be adapted -- Wonder Woman, her origin, Steve Trevor, etc. -- were all from comic books. Had THE DARK KNIGHT been nominated, it would have been adapted because much of the Harvey Dent plot comes from THE LONG HALLOWEEN.
But could you say this for every superhero movie? I begrudgingly would think yes, because the characters are not originally created for the best. But it definitely piqued my interest.
With that, I love seeing LOGAN on this list!
The rule is to rank films about women lower than others of equal chances.
1. Call Me By Your Name (frontrunner
2. The Disaster Artist (leading actor contender, about a guy)
3. Stronger (leading actor contender, about a guy)
4. Molly's Game (about a woman, but in a man's world, and it's written by Aaron Sorkin
5. Wonder (about a boy, surprise commercial hit; screenwriter/director waiting to break)
6. The Lost City of Z (reviews, about men; Amazon; filmmaker waiting to break)
7. Mudbound (Netflix gives me pause)
8. Victoria and Abdul (leading actress contender)
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
BEGUILED
MUDBOUND
MOLLY'S GAME
Who can honestly think that Wonder Woman and The Beguiled are deserving of SCREENPLAY nominations ??!!
The first was a good surprise thanks to many things including direction and acting, but the screenplay was NOT award worthy at ALL ! Even The Dark Knight didn't get a screenplay nomination !!! Because WW is way above what we came to expect from DCU doesn't mean it's Oscar worthy !
When it comes to The Beguiled, if anyone wants to reward its screenplay, give a posthumous Oscar to Albert Maltz and Irene Kamp, because Coppola's movie is just a savorless and sanitized copy of Don Siegel's film.
Also, you forgot in your list the much talked about Ridley Scott drama All the Money in the World which, if it's any good, would be the perfect "Adapted Screenplay" contender.
And if you want to reward a blockbuster, 'War For the Planet of the Apes' is a way better option than Wonder Woman.
Glenn wrote
I love you. haha. in years past this would have happened already so i'm kinda surprised everyone is sticking to their original category... though i do sometimes wonder if movies written about real events shouldn't always be "adapted from existing material" given that they're obviously collaged from biographies and news articles, and media coverage and such.It's strange how film that seem obvious Oscar contenders like "The Lost City of Z" get forgotten when award season starts- and that movie had a lot going for it- script, direction, exotic photography, costume design
Can someone push The Lost City of Z, please?
It deserves to be nominated here and especially Cinematography.
i say:
Call me by your name (the only close thing to a lock in this category)
The Disaster Artist
Mudbound
Victoria & Abdul (because Focus is campaigning for this, and despite of being ineligible for WGA it stands a fair chance since it's an unexpected b.o. hit in the US)
Wonder Woman (because it's Warner's second priority for the season, they're really spending money on promoting it, it's quite likely to score a WGA nod just like Guardians of the galaxy 3 years ago and it'd be the perfect way to "validate" one of the most celebrated blockbusters of the year and somehow a game-changer for the industry)
I believe Blade Runner 2049 and Wonder Woman were original screenplay movies! They weren't adapted from other material!
JSintheStates -- Oscar's writing branch considers sequels to be "adaptations" and any previously created categories (such as comic book characters) are always placed in adapted.
cinesnatch -- unfortunately you're right about the "about a woman place it one notch lower than movies about men with similar chances. It's so aggravating but that is how Oscar plays.
Call me crazy, but I think people are underestimating IT. I mean, it might not be a likely nominee, but the fact that it isn't on ANY list that I've seen so far is vexing. Not only was it critically acclaimed for the most part and an undeniable box office hit, it's also written by (among others) Cary Fukunaga.
I'm actually not sure about Molly's Game getting in. Sorkin has officially two nominations and unofficially three nominations...
I had an epiphany about this last night: Given the mass of potentials but lack of sure things in this category, Warner Bros. would be smart to campaign heavily for IT here. It likely doesn't have much of a chance elsewhere, as horror fans will likely throw their weight behind Get Out, but it was one of the biggest critical AND commercial successes of the year, and it was often mentioned how surprisingly funny it was and how well the childhood relationships were captured, which are very much screenplay-related. This would be a good place to honor the film for being better than anyone could have expected, and a big, smart campaign could get it there.