Sunday
Feb122017
Podcast: The Oscars are coming! How many will 'La La' win?
Sunday, February 12, 2017 at 4:00PM 
Nathaniel, Joe, and Nick discuss the Oscar nominations with just two weeks to go until the High Holy Night.
Index (42 minutes)
00:01 Nomination morning formats
05:45 How much did Amy Adams miss by?
07:35 Cinematography & Score
10:30 Deepwater Horizon
13:00 Which categories will La La Land lose and to which: Lion? Jackie? Hacksaw?
23:00 Denzel vs Casey / Emma vs Isabelle / Salesman vs Toni Erdmann?
30:25 Picture & Director splits. Spreading the wealth. (Remember The Revenant? No?)
39:00 Ryan Gosling & Visual Effects. Byeeeee!
You can listen to the podcast here at the bottom of the post or download from iTunes. Continue the conversations in the comments, won't you?
Reader Comments (24)
I hope the Academy follows the example set by the BAFTAs just earlier today: La La Land lost several of the awards it was up to. It won 5 and lost 6.
Greatest shocker: Dev Patel instead of Mahershala Ali. This is Ali's second major loss after the Golden Globes. Are his chances of Oscar glory in danger?
@ Marcos
No.
a) I tend not to watch the nominations.
b) All the new names in Score and Cinematography is probably one of my favourite oscar nominations ever.
c) La La Land will probably get double digits, more because I think in every plausible loss is up against more than one plausible contender. 11 - Gosling, "Audition" and Sound Editing lose, though I agree with Nick that Gosling isn't out of it.
d) A24 has three screenplay nominees. Has that happened before?
e) No oscar snub shocks me as much as Nick buying The Revenant
f) The most "0-win best picture noiminees" is 7 (way back in 32/33). Since the expansion, it's four.
I'm with Marcos, here. This is the year to SPREAD the love. We're pretty done wuth annhililation, don't we? And what purpose could it mean a LLL sweep, really? Is it really so much better than Moonlight? I don't think so. Is it more resonant than Manchester? Dunno.
And as much as I loved Emma (really the heartbeat of LLL) Huppert has so much sommersaults to do with her character that I wiah she was still in the discussion.
If LLL sweeps and wins script, then I'll flip out. It's arguably the weakest link of the film! That and sound mixing! Believe it or not, I'm pleasently surprised by the HR Bafta's edition win! That's a good call. Even though I prefer Hell or High Water's and as a film in general. I think it's the "Last Picture Show" of our times. There are pretty resonant films nominated this year. I don't see a reason for a LLL sweep, at all.
I just have stopped caring. I don't dislike La La Land, but it seems very unworthy of a sweep relative to its competition, and I'm tired of Hollywood awarding movies that glorify show business. This did not happen to the same extent years ago. It's hard for me to even drum up the interest to watch the ceremony this year.
Also, the costumes in Jackie are not just copies - they actually modernized Jackie's clothing. The most dramatic example of this is the piece Jackie wore at the Casals performance, which is very different from (more old-fashioned than) the gown in the film, but even with the more famous pieces there are subtle variations, e.g., the buttons and sleeves on the red suit Portman wore during the White House tour differ from the actual 1962 version.
Arkaan: I count five in 2013 - American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Nebraska, Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street. This year could equal that, but I hope they spread the wealth a fair bit.
Also Beasts of the Southern Wild
Nadir: That was 2012. (I always go by the year being honoured, not the year of the ceremony.)
@Suzanne: I knew I was making a lazy argument, so thanks for taking the time to teach me in detail!
Thanks Edward L, don't know which film I mentally subtracted.
I realize the podcast was recorded before Bafta but there is no Emma vs Isabelle after tonight. When has an actor won GG/SAG/Bafta and lost the Oscar?
Whoever wins between those two though, I'd be happy so I'm personally excited to watch this year's ceremony with no anxiety about the only category that matters.
@Murtada
Russell Crowe for ABM. And I hear Stone can be very punchy....
But year, Stone's winning.
Murtada-- yeah, it's only happened once. but Huppert wasnt eligible for BAFTAs so that's a very weird example. Nobody thinks Denzel CAN'T win because he wasn't nominated for BAFTA while eligible! (even though he might not win)
I dont think Huppert is winning either but i bet you she's running a strong second.
I'd forgive the Academy for Brokeback if they gave La La Land everything except Picture, Director and Actress. But there will be no forgiveness this year...
At this stage without Adams, Huppert is no doubt the default choice for voters who maybe don't love LA LA LAND that much. I don't think there's enough of them to not hand Stone the won, alas.
Isn't it strange how there are so many categories that just feel like most of the nominees would never happen. I guess in costume design it's because none of them are of the Elizabeth: The Golden Age/The Dutchess/Marie Antoinette variety that LA LA LAND feels more likely. And production design? An eighth Harry Potter? A dud spaceship flick? Hmmm. And, yeah, that make-up category! I'm guessing STAR TREK because more have probably seen it than OVE and its a better movie than SUICIDE SQUAD. They gave the first Abrams reboot the make up Oscar!
Paul Outlaw, well-said.
Nick, you're always so nice in taking the time to reply to comments.
Another nice podcast! Thanks for posting, keep them coming :)
I'm with Suzanne. I can't muster up much enthusiasm for a La La Land sweep. It was enjoyable but not deserving of wins in all categories. I hope they spread the love a bit.
Ove is winning make-up.
I think Denzel is extremely talented, but does he really need three Oscars? Casey is very good, but probably a quarter of the actors in the Academy will have trouble voting for him due to the accusations of sexual harassment against him. (And I don't blame them.) Andrew Garfield was just lucky to be nominated. That leaves Viggo and Ryan. I'm rooting for either of them to emerge victorious in a surprise win. But I realize the chances of that happening is probably around 5 percent. Or is that too generous?
Cash 5 percent sounds right for Gosling. But i dont think Viggo has a shot *cries*
The Oscar is the only race Stone faces off Huppert, but i guess Emma's win is alr set in stone.
I'm not adverse to LLL winning Best Pic, Dir, Actress, etc. It will even b sweeter if Gosling win over the Casey/Denzel deadlock, but pls no screenplay! Lonergan deserves that!!!
I guess LLL's award success owed in parts to Trump. Had he not been elected, voters wld probably feel embarrassed in showering a feelgoodusical w so many golds, but now they probably feel this is what Hollywood needs to do now to counter the bleak uncertain future.
Meryl too owed Trump her 20th nom indirectly . Her inspiring Golden Globe speech is probably what propelled her ahead o Adams n Bening to the Oscars nom.
Claran -- i believe this too. I think without that Globe speech, Streep would have been booted for either Bening or Adams.
@Suzanne: You're always so nice about offering them!