Cannes: "You Were Never Really Here" and Palme d'Or Predictions
Friday, May 26, 2017 at 8:12PM Previously: Day 1, Days 2-4, Days 5-6, Days 7-8, and Days 9-10
Fashion: French Divas & Kidmanifestations 1, 2, 3
Joaquin Phoenix, an antihero saving girls from sex slavery, in Lynne Ramsay's thriller "You Were Never Really Here"
Cannes wraps up Sunday with the closing ceremony which means the Palme d'Or! The last competition film to premiere (tomorrow officially is Lynne Ramsay's You Were Never Really Here and as is sometimes the case in the more dramatic Cannes festivals, many critics are proclaiming that the festival saved the best for last. Variety's Guy Lodge loved it calling it a "a stunning return," The Guardian compares it to Taxi Driver in its "nightmarish psychological drama"
Does that mean it will win the Palme d'Or or that Joaquin Phoenix has Best Actor wrapped up? Not really. It's foolish with Cannes to ever assume you know what will win but let's make some tentative predictions for fun after the jump shall we?
the six films that seem like the biggest threats for prizes
CANNES PREDICTIONS
There's really no telling what Pedro and his jury will choose as best this or that tomorrow -- they aren't the same group of people who've been writing all the reviews after all. Sometimes the film that critics proclaim as the obvious winner goes home empty-handed -- think Toni Erdmann last year -- and sometimes the actor the internet buzzes about winning loses -- consider Marion Cotillard in virtually every Cannes comp lineup that has featured her.
All that said we'll start hearing rumors about who was asked to stick around for the closing ceremony soon enough. But let's make some really hesitant probably incorrect predictions anyway. "Hesitant" is the word I use since I'm going to give you several names in each category just to cover most hunches. I'm leaving Happy End out of the predictions because Michael Haneke films have already won so often. I'm thinking eventually a Cannes jury will be like "time to honor someone else!"
PALME D'OR / GRAND PRIX / PRIX DU JURY
Since these are the top three prizes (winner, runner up, and honorable mention essentially) the predictions list will be the same set of films.
Andrei Zvyagintsev (Leviathan) directed LOVELESS which is a major contender if you believe the critics
Prediction: Loveless
Quite often with Cannes it seems like you have to build up to a Palme d'Or. Andrei Zvyaginstev won the screenplay prize at Cannes for Leviathan (which went on to an Oscar nomination) and before that he won Un Certain Regard for Elena so maybe its his time. If he loses the Palme d'Or the film will win some other category. That's my most confident prediction.
Or Maybe It'll Be: You Were Never Really Here
Other Top Possibility: 120 BPM
Longer Shots But I Wouldn't Quite Be "Shocked": A Gentle Creature, Killing of a Sacred Deer, or The Square
DIRECTOR
With such a female friendly jury (Two directors who love female characters, one female director and three actresses) and the constant reminders that Jane Campion is the only female director to win the Palme d'Or, just a hunch that if the Palme d'Or doesn't go to Lynne Ramsay outright, the best director prize will. Regardless it's great to see such a viscerally excited response to her latest given how tremendous Morvern Callar was back in the day (I was less a fan of We Need To Talk About Kevin than most of you were).
Prediction: Lynne Ramsay for You Were Never Really Here
Or Maybe It'll Be: Lanthimos for Killing of a Sacred Deer
Other Possibilities: Zvyaginstev for Loveless, Yoznitsa for A Gentle Creature, Ostlund for The Square, Campillo for 120 BPM
I mean anyone is possible since juries have been known to throw REAL curveballs with Best Director: So what if it's Mundruzco for Jupiter Moon or Coppola for The Beguiled?
ACTRESS
The internet ALWAYS thinks it's going to be a super internationally famous actress and quite often it's not. So I'm dismissing the Kidman rumor which feels like internet wishful thinking to me. But I ended up predicting a famous actress anyway. In truth I have no strong hunch about this category!
Prediction: Diane Kruger for In the Fade
Or Maybe It'll Be: Maryana Spivak for Loveless (though if the film takes the Palme d'Or she'll probably lose since juries are encouraged to spread the wealth)
Another Possibility: Vasilina Makotseva for A Gentle Creature
Longshots? Millicent Simmonds for Wonderstruck or The Cast of The Beguiled
ACTOR
Like ALL the prizes this year this one seems wildly up for grabs... but I feel a strong hunch that it will be one of the following three men...
Louis Garrel as Jean-Luc Godard in LE REDOUTABLE
Prediction: Louis Garrel for Le Redoutable
Or Maybe It'll Be: Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really There... but if the film loses those top prizes, I'd be surprised not to see this go to him.
Another Possibility: Masatoshi Nagase for Radiance
If they surprise us maybe Alexey Rozin for Loveless, Jérémie Renier for L'Amant Double, or Robert Pattinson for Good Time?
PRIX DU SCENARIO
Two filmmakers in the competition lineup this year already had films take this screenplay prize: Akin (In the Fade) won this for The Edge of Heaven, and Zvyaginstev (Loveless) won this for Leviathan. Of note: Despite numerous Cannes prizes, Haneke has weirdly never won this particular prize so let's be cheeky and predict that he's definitely in the running for this one.
Elisabeth Moss, Klaes Bang, and director Ruben Östlund on the set of THE SQUARE (2017)
Predictions: Ruben Östlund, The Square
Or Maybe It'll Be: Michael Haneke, Happy End
Other Possibilities: Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthymis Filippou, Killing of a Sacred Deer
Who do you think will win the Cannes prizes?
Reader Comments (11)
Between Kidman/Dunst/Kruger and Farrell/Renier/Garrel/Pattinson, we could see a sexy acting tandem.
And I'm feeling The Square for Palme. Or any of the 12-13 other competition titles I'm anxiously awaiting.
There is some gossip about Almodovar having loved Wonderstruck, because instead of going out of the theater quickly to avoid speculations after the movie ends, he stayed there to applaud Haynes. A friend of mine who has a producer friend who's in Cannes (I know) told me Almodovar didn't stay to applaud the other movies. Jessica Chastain applauded some movies, and she was supposedly very enthusiastic about Diane Kruger. Let's see.
Isn't that the cat from LISTEN UP PHILIP?
Diane Kruger and Robert Pattinson are two people I would believe up for beauty awards, but Acting? That will surprise me. Good for them!
Prediction
Palme d'Or: A Gentle Creature
Grand Prix: BPM
Director: Lanthimos, Sacred Deer
Screenplay: Ostlund, The Square
Actor: Renier, L'Amant Double
Actress: Spivak, Loveless
Jury: Good Time
My predix:
Palme d'or: Lynne Ramsay
Grand Prix: BPM
Jury Prize: Sacred Deer
Dir: Zyvagintsev
Scr: Loznitsa
Actor: Renier
Actress: Cast of Beguiled
Predictions (or more what I would like)
Palme: Killing of a Sacred Deer
Grand: 120 BPM
Jury: Okja
Screenplay: Loveless
Actor: Renier, L'Amant Double
Actress: Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Director: Lynne Ramsay
Predicting...
Palme: The Square
Grand Jury Prize: 120 BPM
Director: Lynne Ramsay, but not confident
Actress: Makotseva, A Gentle Creature
Actor: Pattinson, Good Time
Screenplay: Double Lover
Jury Prize: Loveless or The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Is Lynne Ramsay going to be the next female director to get an Oscar nomination? The thought excites me almost as much as the actual movie.
MARCY - you're so right. thanks for the catch. I found that with an online search for THE SQUARE but should have double-checked. It was totally a still from Listen up Philip. Replaced now with the proper image!!!
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