Does Box Office Matter to Best Actress Hopefuls?
Sunday, November 4, 2018 at 12:18PM by Nathaniel R
Helen Mirren's The Queen was in many ways a completely standard win... a solid success before the nomination and an even bigger hit afterwardsDoes Box Office matter to Oscars? It does and it doesn't. And how much it matters varies from year to year and from category to category. It obviously matters, regardless, if you're either a flop or a big hit but anything inbetween (where most movies fall) is up for speculative debate.
For instance, just this year people have debated whether The Wife's box office take is strong enough for a Best Actress nomination for Glenn Glose (hint: it totally is... though winning will be harder) and whether it will matter that Roma won't really have that much of a theatrical presence (it might. it might not. The streaming only/mostly thing is relatively uncharted territory) or if the major success of A Star is Born will make a win possible for Lady Gaga (it won't hurt!)
For fun let's look at how much the Best Actress nominees films made before they were nominated for the past fifteen years and see what patterns emerge. The films in red won Best Actress Oscars.
BOX OFFICE RANK OF BEST ACTRESS FILMS
BEFORE THE NOMINATIONS (2003-2017)
AND WHERE THIS YEAR'S LEADING ACTRESSES CURRENTLY FIT...
- Gravity $256.3 (of an eventual $274)
- The Blind Side $238.1 (of an eventual $255.9)
...and now the non-Sandra Bullock portion of the list ;)
BIG HITS
They can get you Oscar attention even if the film isn't a 'typical' Oscar genre like, say, thrillers (Gone Girl or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) or comedies (The Devil Wears Prada and Juno)
CONSTANCE WU IN CRAZY RICH ASIANS - The Help $169.5 (of an eventual $169.7)
- Gone Girl $167.2 (total)
🔺 LADY GAGA IN A STAR IS BORN - The Devil Wears Prada $124.7 (total)
- Something's Gotta Give $107.3 (of an eventual $124.7)
- Walk the Line $106.3 (of an eventual $119.5)
- American Hustle $104.5 (of an eventual $150.1)
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo $94.8 (of an eventual $102.5)
- Julie & Julia $94.1 (total)
- La La Land $90.4 (of an eventual $151.1)
- Juno $87 (of an eventual $143.4)
- Black Swan $83.7 (of an eventual $106.9)
MODEST HITS
Notice that most of the nominated performances are from Oscar friendly genres... which is why we worry about Toni Colette in Hereditary despite being totally deserving and receiving the type of reviews which scream "nominate her for this!". She'd fall in this group but it's a horror film so she'd have a much better shot if the film were a hit the size of something like Black Swan... - Joy $48.1 (of an eventual $56.4)
- The Post $45.7 (of an eventual $81.9)
- Precious $45.4 (of an eventual $47.5)
- Lady Bird $39.1 (of an eventual $48.9)
TONI COLETTE IN HEREDITARY - Pride & Prejudice $37.4 (of an eventual $38.4)
- The Queen $35.8 (of an eventual $56.4)
- Silver Linings Playbook $35.7 (of an eventual $132)
- Changeling $35.7 (total)
- Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind $34.4 (total)
- Blue Jasmine $33 (total)
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missiouri $32.2 (of an eventual $54.4)
- Wild $31.2 (of an eventual $37.8)
- The Shape of Water $30.4 (of an eventual $63.8)
- Florence Foster Jenkins $27.3 (total)
- The Theory of Everything $26.2 (of an eventual $35.8)
- Doubt $25.7 (of an eventual $33.4)
🔺AMANDLA STENBERG IN THE HATE U GIVE - Brooklyn $22.7 (of an eventual $38.3)
- Philomena $22.5 (of an eventual $37.7)
- The Kids Are All Right $20.8 (total)
- Whale Rider $20.7 (total)
- North Country $18.3 (total)
- Elizabeth: The Golden Age $16.3 (total)
- I Tonya $14.7 (of an eventual $30)
ELSIE FISHER IN EIGHTH GRADE - The Iron Lady $12.9 (of an eventual $30)
- 21 Grams $12.2 (of an eventual $16.2)
- My Week with Marilyn $12 (of an eventual $14.6)
- Jackie $11.3 (of an eventual $13.9)
- Beasts of the Southern Wild $11.2 (of an eventual $12.7)
- Rachel Getting Married $10.7 (of an eventual $12.7)
- La Vie En Rose $10 (of an eventual $10.3)
ART HOUSE HITS OR JUST STARTING BEFORE GOING WIDE
They had less than $10 million in the bank before the nominations but enough audience interest to support healthy Oscar campaigns. - August: Osage County $9.8 (of an eventual $37.7)
CHARLIZE THERON IN TULLY - In America $9 (of an eventual $15.5)
- An Education $8.8 (of an eventual $12.5)
- Million Dollar Baby $8.4 (of an eventual $100.4)
- The Reader $8 (of an eventual $34.1)
GLENN CLOSE IN THE WIFE - Loving $7.6 (of an eventual $7.7)
- Carol $7.5 (of an eventual $12.7)
- Volver $7.5 (of an eventual $12.8)
- Maria Full of Grace $6.5 (total)
- Monster $6.2 (of an eventual $34.4)
- Winter's Bone $6.2 (of an eventual $6.5)
- Notes on a Scandal $6 (of an eventual $17.5)
- Zero Dark Thirty $5.2 (of an eventual $95.7)
- Room $5.2 (of an eventual $14.6)
FEW SAW THEM BEFORE THE NOMINATIONS
The following films earned less than $5 million before the nomination... this is dicier territory for contenders. Consider the fate of Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky whose film grossed $3.4 million before the nominations but she missed the list despite tons of precursor support.
Note: actresses don't ever win with grosses this low. - Blue Valentine $4.5 (of an eventual $9.7)
- Away From Her $4.5 (total)
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY IN COLETTE - The Impossible $4 (of an eventual $19)
- Being Julia $3.8 (of an eventual $7.7)
- Little Children $3.7 (of an eventual $5.4)
- The Savages $3.6 (of an eventual $6.6)
RACHEL WEIZ in DISOBEDIENCE - Frozen River $2.3 (of an eventual $2.5)
- Vera Drake $2.2 (of an eventual $3.7)
- Mrs Henderson Presents $2 (of an eventual $11)
🔺 MELISSA MCCARTHY IN CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? - Elle $1.6 (of an eventual $2.3)
- Transamerica $1.5 (of an eventual $9)
- Rabbit Hole $1.2 (of an eventual $2.2)
BARELY ANYONE SAW BEFORE NOMINATIONS
It's worth noting that any film grossing under $1 million before nominations just doesn't get you nominated UNLESS it is a december release as these all were. It's the only time of year you dont have to prove your commercial viability to get a nomination. Which is why despite strong performances actresses like Mary Elizabeth Winstead in All About Nina ($95k) and Michelle Pfeiffer in Where is Kyra? ($59k) and Hilary Swank in What They Had ($159k) aren't generating anything in the way of awards conversations.
🔺CAREY MULLIGAN IN WILDLIFE - Amour $371k (of an eventual $6.7)
- 45 Years $366k (of an eventual $4.2)
- The Last Station $355k (of an eventual $6.6)
- Two Days, One Night $180k (of an eventual $1.4)
ONE WEEK QUALIFIERS
the only films that 'cheated' with qualifying weeks are below -- i.e. they didn't open in the proper way until they had already secured the nomination. This only works for mainstream movie star actresses. Everyone else needs more rev up time. Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin is a prime example. That film tried the one week qualifier and though Tilda secured almost every precursor nomination she still missed the Oscar list. - Still Alice N/A (of an eventual $18.7)
- Albert Nobbs N/A (of an eventual $3)
A handful of final thoughts:
• We have no idea yet how Ben is Back, Mary Queen of Scots, The Favourite, or Widows will perform but Widows seems likely be a hit which helps make Viola Davis the safest bet among the opening in November / early December crowd.
• Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex, Nicole Kidman in Destroyer, and Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns won't likely have to worry about box office results given that they're opening much too late for that to be a real factor. This will also be extremely useful for Yalitza Aparicio. Roma will surely make next to nothing in theaters (since you'll be able to stream it at home) but that *might* not matter given the late release with lots of build up hype... so Netflix seems to be playing it smart in this particular regard, even if, like one week qualifiers, it's a shady wayto circumvent the usual scrutiny that comes with how general audiences respond to your movie.
• Marion Cotillard in Two Days One Night is the lowest grossing Best Actress nominee of the past 15 years but that performance was very hard to deny... though they surely would have denied had their been more robust competition. It's worth noting that Cotillard's chief competition for the nomination that year was Jennifer Aniston in Cake, who tried a one-week qualifier. But Jennifer Aniston is not Julianne Moore or Glenn Close and you basically have to be an Oscar darling to get away with those one-week qualifiers... at least in contemporary Oscar races.
• Marion Cotillard also holds the distinction of being the lowest grossing Best Actress winner of the past 15 years via La Vie En Rose which closed with only $10 million but $10 million for a foreign language title is basically an inarguable "hit" and a bigger hit than, say, Brie Larson in Room the runner up for lowest grosser with just $14.6 million at closing. If Glenn Close were to win for The Wife, she would immediately assume this title. Winners only for the past 15 years. Final domestic grosses at closing...
- Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (2009) $255.9
big hits - Emma Stone, La La Land (2016) $151.1
- Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook (2012) $132
- Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line (2005) $119.5
- Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2010) $106.9
- Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby (2004) $104
success stories - Helen Mirren, The Queen (2006) $56.4
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards (2017) $54.4
- Charlize Theron, Monster (2003) $34.4
- Kate Winslet, The Reader (2008) $34.1
- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (2013) $33
- Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (2011) $30
minor box office but lots of prestige - Julianne Moore, Still Alice (2014) $18.7
- Brie Larson, Room (2015) $14.6
- Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose (2007) $10.3
• Last year's best actress race is in many ways very typical in terms of Box Office for Best Actresses in that all five films were at least moderately successful.
Tonya, Mildred, Lady Bird, Eliza, and Katherine
There was one substantial hit (Meryl Streep in The Post), two modest hits (Frances McDormand in Three Billboards and Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water) and two sleeper hits with low budgets that took people by surprise and ended up real contenders (Margot Robbie in I Tonya and Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird). All five films were significantly buoyed by awards buzz, since they all opened in either November or December.
Reader Comments (41)
To get in for a small film you have to be beloved,respected or Meryl
Congratulations Nathaniel on one hell of an article/list. Such an interesting read.
Now..seeing that the biggest hit among this year's contenders (Germanotta aside) is Hereditary, can we still hope for a Toni Collette nomination? She's been earning her no2. for YEARS.
This article has just made me realise how strong Amandla Stenberg ("THE HATE U GIVE") can become - to fill the black actress (you know AMPAS pays attention to this since #OscarSoWhite) breakthrough performance, racial issues film and box-office success
Thanks for doing all of this research, Nathaniel! I think A Star is Born's box office success IS going to catapult Lady Gaga for sure. Whoever doesn't think she's getting nominated is probably putting some kind of blinders on. I think the question now is whether or not she WINS (probably too early to tell, given that a number of films have yet to be released, but I'd argue that her chances are very good).
I think another very real factor is whether a film is beloved or not. People that love A Star is Born LOVE it. There are big hits that aren't necessarily beloved films. Gone Girl was a big hit, but I'm guessing it's not widely beloved, even if plenty of people admired/enjoyed it and some probably loved it.
I think the state of the Oscars telecast itself is also a potential factor.The Oscars seem to currently be in a phase of wanting to attract the masses a bit more. That likely bodes well for films like A Star is Born. And, if the Oscar get get over its biases, it SHOULD bode well for Black Panther, both a blockbuster and one of the most creative and best reviewed films of the year.
I have OCD but Streep's movies here add up to $429 million, and that does not include foreign sales. Sandra Bullock is okay but isn't she always playing herself? Like Lady GaGa? I will feel bad for Glenn if she loses her possibly last chance for an Oscar because of box office. More ladies of color, please!
I agree that ASIB has become such a phenomenon that Lady Gaga's Oscar nom is all but sealed. The only reason I can think that she'd get snubbed would be a severe backlash against both the hype for the film and some bias against Gaga for not being a "real" actor (which of course she is, she just made the career change later in life). But I don't think ASIB's huge acclaim will necessarily catapult her to victory like many seem to think. Her neophyte status in the acting world will work against her, especially against someone of Close's stature. Academy members will watch the screeners. For Gaga to win, she has to be CLEARLY better than Close in the minds of most voters. I'm not sure I can picture that happening, but it's possible.
Does anyone know if the track from the ASIB soundtrack called Heal me is eligible or put forward for nominations,it's quite a beautiful track,modern but delicate and fresh.
I do hope that this year's best actress race doesn't play out like 2016. Huppert dominated the critics while Stone dominated the televised awards and ultimately beat the respected veteren. I guess the difference this time is Glenn has the due narrative being a six time loser versus Gaga a breakout who already is likely to win an oscar for song. I do still believe Glenn will happen and I also believe the critics could get behind her. However if someone else dominates the critics I might have to pull away from my perferred choice of a Close win
With all the fantastic performances already this year, I truly hope no one actress dominates at all the awards shows.
a) I think Colette is reasonably well positioned to make a strong critics run, but if she doesn't then she's out.
b) I really do think Close should be fine to gather winning momentum, but she really didn't entrench herself as a the one to beat like Blanchett did in 2013 (the last August release to do so). I can definitely imagine a scenario where, say, Olivia Coleman builds more steam as the race progresses. If A Star is Born stays drama at the Globes, Coleman has a pretty great case for herself. Granted, longtime character performer is a better narrative for supporting statues as opposed to lead, particularly with first time nominations (As Michael Keaton found out a few years ago), but I think Coleman has some broad-based heat surrounding her.
c) Eoin, I don't think Close stands much of a shot at the critices prizes. If she wins anything beyond the televised awards, she'll become basically unbeatable.
Mark -- it's not. you are only allowed two nominations for a film in Best Original Song and A STAR IS BORN has only submitted three songs for consideration
SHALLOW
I'LL NEVER LOVE AGAIN
ALWAYS REMEMBER US THIS WAY
i'm a bit surprised one of them wasn't MAYBE THIS TIME since Cooper co-wrote it but those three are good choices.
Thank you for this interesting look at Oscars.
A real shame it's brillantly used in the film.
I think the critics' best actress choice this year will either be Carey Mulligan in Wildlife or Toni Collette in Hereditary. Both actresses have breathless, universal raves and either one could be a "cause" this season, and thus capitalizing on them to take the critics slot this year, i.e. Cotillard, Rampling, Huppert. Maybe Glenn Close, but I don't know. I still think she's in for a nomination at the very least.
Probably Olivia Colman will be the critics darling and Glenn Close could win one of the three top critics awards: NYCC, LAFCC, NSFCC
as a Glenn Close huge fan, I want her to win!
But I really think that her performance in The Wife is not an Oscar preformance: don't need accent, loose/gain weight, look 'no pretty', screaming to everyone how good she is, etc.
is a towering subtle performance. the male branch of the actors branch don't vote in that.
is sad, but is true.
IF Glenn Close wins this year, The Wife would be the lowest-grossing film to win Best Actress since Blue Sky featuring Jessica Lange.
The Wife made a respectable box office of $13.8m combined. I tink Close is definitely safe for a nom, esp w the overdue narrative. Her win is ano Q. Her biggest competition imo is not Gaga, who is def winnin Best Song, but Colman, who will most likely sweep all the British awards + stateside top critics awards (i suspect some groups will honour all three ladies in a tie).
Hereditary made a huge box office o $79.3 combined n its A24 only bid this yr. I tink they will put all their efforts in promoting it n Collette still has a decent chance o nabbing the 5th slot, if voters can overlook the horror genre bias + she oso has an overdue narrative, seeing tt her last nom was almost 20 yrs ago.
Get Out shows tt voters still luv good horror movie althot it remains to be seen whether it's an exception or whether the Academy is really to re-embrace good horror performances.
It’s so weird that ROOM never took off at the box office.
I wouldn't underestimate McCarthy for critics' prizes (I think she's a more likely winner than Mulligan, for instance, though Collette also seems very possible). On this week's Indiewire: ScreenTalk, Anne Thompson really pushed him on who he thinks would win the NYFFC awards. He deferred, but he said he thinks Can You Ever Forgive Me? and McCarthy's performance are exceptional.
If Close is nominated, it seems likely that she would be in the lowest-grossing film of the group (unless Arpacio gets a nod, but her film will not have comparable distribution), and the least acclaimed film of the group per RottenTomatoes/Metacritic. It's hard for me to imagine that she could win under those circumstances, but there are people who have - I imagine Lange and Forrest Whitaker would be in that category.
I meant to say that Thompson really pushed Eric Kohn on who he thinks will win NYFCC. They also mentioned Hawke and Dafoe in the Best Actor race.
I remember years ago (Jesus, I've reading this blog for 15 years) when you said that Laura Linney would get a nomination if people managed to see the movie. She did get her nomination.
Sometimes you don't need box office at all. That's what happened to Cotillard. They're floored by an incredible performance, that was not even her best perfomance that year (her silent star Garbo-like turn in The Immigrant).
That's what Glenn Close needs now. To people see her movie. And once she gets the nomination, the narrative is ready for a win. She's a Laura Linney with the momentum of a life time!
The Academy is obsessed with becoming relevant again, so the idea of Gaga winning Best Actress doesn't sound super crazy until you remember the actors branch is the largest. Will they embrace Germanotta over Glenn Close?
Wow thanks for the research on this, Nathaniel.
I just realised that of all the lead actress Oscar winners, it was the highest grossing film that I have not seen yet (The Blind Side). I like Bullock alright but the year she won was when Sally Hawkins was winning critics and some televised precursors, so when Hawkins did not get the Oscar nomination, I tuned out.
I hope Glenn Close gets a nomination because as someone points out, once she does, any publicity for her will almost automatically remind people why they should reward the actress. I am not a big fan of an overdue win or awarding someone for the body of work rather than the performance itself for that year, but Oscar operates differently.
As one of the very few people left in the planet who has not seen A Star is Born, Lady Gaga sounds like she will get an Oscar somehow on Oscar night.
Is there really no way for Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Mary Kay Place, Michelle Pfeiffer and Thomasin McKenzie to score an Oscar nomination? I hope LAFCA honors one of them even as a runner-up. At least Rebecca Hall in Christine in 2016 was recognised for her fierce work.
This race is so exciting. Nobody is a lock. I think Mulligan is winning NYFCC. Clayton Davis from Awards Circuit firmly believes that Felicity Jones will contend for On The Basis of Sex. Blunt could definitely factor in for Mary Poppins Returns. I am worried for Gaga.
Excellent work as always, Nathaniel.
I hope this race can stay this exciting up until the envelope!
I'm on Team Colman even though I haven't seen her film yet. DYING to see it of course. But yeah, I wouldn't underestimate her. People seem to be really loving the film. She's a long-time working and respected BRITISH actress finally getting her due.
I think the critics can rally behind her, but to keep to the topic at hand... she probably does need the box office results. She's not an overdue legend nor a young ingenue so she needs box office and/or "she's never been better!" type of notices.
And who knows re: box office. Yorgos Lanthimos' highest grossing film was THE LOBSTER and it only made $9 million and his next highest grossing film is KILLING OF A SACRED DEER at just $2.2 million. I think the film needs to do AT LEAST the numbers for THE LOBSTER if not (a lot) more to position Coleman as the possible winner.
I don't see Colman emmathompsoning herself to an Oscar win for a Lanthimos film.
This is illuminating. Thanks Nathaniel, as always, for the careful work and sharp insights.
Looks like Meryl is able to be immune to some of the trends here.
Colman is one of my favorite actresses and I can't wait to see the movie. She seems to be the obvious standout. That said, I just can't imagine her getting the head of steam she'd need for the win. A nomination would be wonderful.
I know it's a lot harder to quantify, but what about actresses in huge hits who still don't get nominated? I think Amy Adams is especially unlucky in this regard. She looked like she had a chance with both Enchanted and Arrival, but was still passed over for actresses in far less financially successful films. Beyonce Knowles in Dreamgirls, Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids, Judi Dench in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Uma Thurman in the Kill Bill films also come to mind. Perhaps genre considerations can be a negative drag on nomination potentials.
I still don't believe that Cake exists. It feels like an elaborate FYC campaign propped up by a trailer.
In hindsight, why was Sandra Bullock even nominated? I can't say I would ever watch those films again. Sadly for Glenn, Bradley, GaGa and Warner Brothers will buy off the HFPA to win drama awards? It seems like the fix is already in (Sharon Stone's gold watch, etc.)
Kate Winslet, Cate Blanchett, Julianne Moore and Meryl were mostly considered "overdue" and they didn't have a big hit, so Glenn fits perfectly in there-if she wins of course.
But honestly, I just don't see neither Gaga nor Coleman really as a Best Actress winner. The Lady will take home an Oscar for Song anyway. Coleman seems safe for the C/M win (unless Blunt somehow comes out of the blue) and a good bet for BAFTA, but not secured (yet).
I really didn't need this reminder of Tully's shockingly low box office.
But this is super interesting - thank you for putting it together!
This is a great article and I hope it gets revived every year. I think box office IS important because ultimately the academy is the audience, though a small rarefied one.
I find it hard to prognosticate right now with the two missing Marys (Queen of Scots and Poppins).
Box office can also be valuable in the SAG race.
When in doubt, those voters go for wide release hits (Woman in Gold, Victoria & Abdul, Saving Mr. Banks) or anomalies that sent out loads of screeners (that Sarah Silverman indie). Almost always at the expense of boutique releases that are impossible to see in time. They're not celebrities with private screening rooms and festival passes.
Distributors are getting smarter about qualifying performances for BAFTA attention. Even Still Alice managed to compete in both places, somehow.
Thank you for a fantastic article. I am hoping against hope for a Colette nod. Thought she was better than Close or Gaga tbh
Interesting that Cotillard's biggest competition in the year of her win was in a film that grossed even less money.
Bullock is fascinating to me because people really seem to dislike THE BLIND SIDE and her GRAVITY performance and nom was like a way to redeem herself a year later.
I believe that the critics darling this year will be Aparicio, so Glenn better hope that the televised awards are very kind to her, b/c once that ball starts rolling, there's no stopping it (as evidenced by 2017 winners). I could easily see Gaga steamrolling the lead actress race, TBH. Does the Academy really want to see Close lose SEVEN times, and again to a musical diva? The plot thickens...
Most painful awards season ever. Always dreamed of seeing Glenn win an Oscar but I had largely put that dream to rest as I didn't believe it was achievable anymore. Now there seems to be a chance but many are still unconvinced. I can't wait for the precursors to start weighing in. If Glenn has a nice showing, I can up my hopes, and if she doesn't, at least I'll have closure.