Del Toro's last stop before Oscar
Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 5:26PM by Nathaniel R
Last night Guillermo del Toro took his expected win at the Directors Guild Awards. Next stop: the 90th Academy Awards where he's also expected to claim his trophy. No one else in the Best Director field has enough momentum or goodwill to upset him, particularly given that the DGA prize is historically super predictive of the eventual Oscar win. They only seem to stray when they're making a "statement"...
As in 'you didn't even nominate him for Director? We'll show you by giving him the win!' (see: Ron Howard for Apollo 13 and, recently, Ben Affleck for Argo.) The Best Picture statue, as we've seen in recent years, is now a harder-get given that it's a preferential rather than a straight "most votes". In this still fairly new system, splits between Director and Picture are more frequent. Nevertheless The Shape of Water isn't particular divisive so its path to Oscar's #1 prize is probably clearer than La La Land's was as that year's nomination behemoth.
The acting Oscar wins are feeling locked up at this juncture, too, (Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell, Janney) but we still have a dozen plus other Oscar categories to wonder about. How many Oscars can Shape of Water win exactly since it doesn't feel quite as passionately beloved as other frontrunners have? At this moment we're guessing it takes just 5 of its 13 bids: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Production Design, and Score.
The GET OUT team celebrates Jordan Peele's "first time feature director" win
ALL DGA WINNERS
Feature - Guillermo del Toro, Shape of Water
First-Time Feature - Jordan Peele – Get Out
Documentary Matthew Heineman – City of Ghosts
Television Drama Reed Morano – The Handmaid’s Tale, “Offred”
Television Comedy Bethany McCarthy-Miller – Veep, “Chicklet”
Television Mini-Series Jean-Marc Valée – Big Little Lies
Reader Comments (17)
Glad for him!
I think the Oscar is in the bag. I hope both Peele and Gerwig surprises, somehow.
I'm starting to think the film has it chances, too. But I see it as a gorgeous throwback of film's past___ with a "monster romance", sure. But in the best possible way, too Academic.
I'm still enchanted by Phantom Thread. If it's one film I want secretly to upset them all, in ALL categories, is this!
I only just saw "Shape of Water" this weekend. I didn't realize that its retro setting was a alternately colorful and grimy 1960s Baltimore, so now I obviously want a sequel where Tracy Turnblad teaches fish man to dance.
Outside of these major awards, look what else won:
"Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Variety/Talk/News/Sports – Specials
Glenn Weiss, 89th Academy Awards - WINNER"
I guess they responded to the handling of the announcement debacle rather than the debacle itself (which, admittedly, the director had no control over, I assume).
And for followers of women directors, Niki Caro won for that Anne of Green Gables Netflix series.
Not at all surprised to see Heineman win. Everytime I watch a movie of his I think "Geez, he DIRECTED this." Sadly, I feel, to the detriment, of the finished product.
Technically speaking, Del Toro has one more stop, the Bafta before the Gold. But he shld getting that too.
Even if Bafta goes w homegrown Nolan, it won't hav an impact on Del Toro's eventual victory at the Oscar.
I wonder if Desplat really wins again or they go with Greenwood.
If del Toro wins the Oscar, 4 out of the last 5 Best Directors will be Mexican. Cuarón + Iñárritu x 2. How about that, Donald?
Go Guillermito!!!!!!
Congratulations to Mr Del Toro who does a masterful job of directing
Glad for him. Even though his films aren't always my particular cup of tea they are often complex and interesting. I'm very curious to see what he does with the remake of Nightmare Alley though he has far to go to improve on that eerie mini masterpiece.
Speaking of directors....nothing to celebrate Ida Lupino's centenary today? :-(
Happy for Guillermo. I don't want to live in a world where Janney and Rockwell are rewarded for hammy performances.
Catherine Keener looks lovely!
I'm surprised we haven't seen more of her on the Get Out trail. Allison Williams was surfing the wave hard (ostensibly a "Best Actress" campaign, lol) and Keener's hardly anywhere.
I still don't believe the race is as straightforward as this. This whole new membership is going to throw some surprises, as happened last year. I believe it will bend more towards the critics favorites than the guilds, globes etc.
I 100% think Del Toro is going to win, but film I'm not so sure yet.
Also, Janney seems... not right. I'm putting my money on Metcalf.
Dave S. - Your comment made me spit out my coffee from laughing so hard. Thanks!
I know SOW will win, but I am still pulling for Dunkirk.
I'm happy for Guillermo, although The Shape of Water wasn't my favorite film this year. I think of it as a reward for The Devil's Backbone and Pan's Labyrinth.
So Del Toro is going to win, eh. Why am I just so meh about it. Probably b/c I am just so meh on SOW in general. It's fine, just...fine. I'd much rather Lady Bird and/or Get Out and/or Call Me By Your Name would be the belles of the ball come Oscar night.
It is very well deserved. Even in a year where Best Director is so competitive and full of distinct voices, del Toro still manages to get the edge. The Shape of Water was his passionate and magical vision, and it will stand the test of time.