It's time for final Best Picture predictions!
Saturday, January 12, 2019 at 1:46PM For the next week we'll be sharing final predictions for each Oscar category. We're starting with the big kahuna, Best Picture because it's the most crucial. It's a domino effect essentially since each year shows us that once voters favor your movie, they just favor it whether or not it's particularly worthy from one category to the next. We'll start with the not so obvious (if you ask me) question:
What would be nominated in a five film year?
Past statistics will tell you that that would be the DGA lineup (BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice) because prior to 2010 when the Best Picture category expanded, the DGA lineup was slightly more predictive of Best Picture than of Best Director, as curious as that might seen. But it wasn't infallible, of course. And we don't think those would be the five this year.
So let's take them in the order of strength after the jump...
01. ROMA
Given the sense that Alfonso Cuarón is going to casually stroll to a second Oscar in a landslide for Best Director for his passion project Roma. Given Netflix's hard sell. Given the dwindling resistance to streaming in the industry. Given all those reasons this looks like the frontrunner at the moment.
Can it win, though? Partially subtitled films have won Best Picture (Slumdog Millionaire, The Godfather Part Two) but no fully foreign film has ever actually won. And yet. There's a first time for everything.
02. A STAR IS BORN
With its perfect 11-11 record with the guilds, Bradley Cooper's remake of the beloved Old Hollywood story (transposed again to the music industry, as it was in the '76 iteration) is a strong contender. It's better than it has any right to be in just about every way.
Can it win, though? As we saw with the unfortunate Globe ceremony, it's no sure thing for wins. Not even for Bradley Cooper's best performance ever. But it should be fine for plentiful nominations and might even eke out a win in the top category.
03 BLACKKKLANSMAN
The early prospects for this picture were fueled by the sense that it's time to give Spike Lee his due. Having just won an Honorary Oscar, the iconoclastic director surprised by helming one of his very best films. In fact, if Roma weren't around we'd be assuming that Spike Lee would be winning his first competitive Oscar. The film has had very little trouble staying in the conversation and it feels timely (unfortunately) given the drain America has been circling down with a white supremacist in the White House.
Can it win, though? Sure, if it gets enough #1,2, and 3 votes in the preferential voting and, rather remarkably nobody seems to hate this incendiary picture. As Mark Harris joked on twitter...
Spike Lee: Stand back while I light this stick of dynamite: I'm going to make a movie called...wait for it!... BlacKkKlansman!
— Mark Harris (@MarkHarrisNYC) January 10, 2019
Oracle: That's nice. It will be the least controversial movie in the Oscar race.
04 GREEN BOOK
Yes, yes, it has a lot of detractors. But you can't actually vote against a movie. This week has been a strange one for the road trip comedy about race relations. It won the Golden Globe and instantly became an even bigger target. This week there's been all sorts of controversy in the form of resurfaced public records. An old interview surfaced where Peter Farrelly admitted to flashing his penis frequently at work and the director issued a very quick retroactive apology saying "I was an idiot" then the Golden Globe winning writer was called out for spreading Trumps lies about Muslim Americans on 9/11. He then deleted his twitter account and made an apology as well. But make no mistake it will still be nominated in multiple categories. The people who love it really don't care about the controversies, and if the past few years are any indication about human nature, once people get defensive about their loves, they dig their heels in (see fans of Bohemian Rhapsody who are frequently enraged when people try to explain that it's actually a bad movie). Fans think Green Book is funny and heartwarming and has a positive message.
Can it win, though? That would be an uphill climb given all the controversy lately. It really helps if no one hates your movie, which is we think how Moonlight and Spotlight won in their years.
THOSE ARE THE LOCKIEST OF LOCKS. BUT THESE ARE LIKELY...
05/06
BLACK PANTHER / THE FAVOURITE (or vice versa)
Here's where it gets really tricky. In a five film year I'm leaning toward it being Black Panther as the Picture nominee without a director nomination (think The Fugitive or Jaws or other crowdpleasing blockbusters that the Academy knew they needed to recognize!) and The Favourite being the opposite (despite Lanthimos missing director nods frequently). But in our new Oscar times, both films are very likely getting in.
Can either of them win, though? I think Black Panther can, actually, if nominated but it all depends on which nominations it receives and whether or not any of the frontrunners stumble. I suspect that The Favourite is too queer and strange (this is not a dig -- it's a downright amazing film) and probably too female-centric; Oscar still has issues with preferencing male stories almost exclusively for Best Picture. *LOUD SIGH*
07/08 VICE / BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (or vice versa)
Now we return to more divisive films. Vice is not especially well reviewed and not a big hit (both those things usually hurt your Oscar chances) but it is punchy to watch if you don't think too hard about it and the Academy has a crush on Adam McKay since The Big Short. The late release date obviously helped it, as did the A list actors. In other words it was neither forgotten as it would have been with an earlier release nor had any trouble getting noticed in the glut of movies released at Christmas time due to huge stars / flashy material. The acting branch especially is likely to dig it as that branch has literally never tired of mimicry and weight gains and 'transformations'.
As for Rhapsody, inexplicably those who enjoy this (and Queen is one of the best selling bands of all time for many reasons and one of those is: HIGHLY ENJOYABLE!) actually feel the need to also name it a "Best". I think Walter Chaw said it best when he said:
Why does something you like have to be good? I like Taco Bell. Taco Bell is awful. I would never say Taco Bell is the best restaurant of the year even though it makes more money than about every other restaurant and I like it. I mean... what are you, eleven?
— Walter Chaw (@mangiotto) January 10, 2019
This is one of the strangest things that's happened in our Oscar-watching years but it looks like it's going to get nominated, despite its myriad problems in construction, the troubled production history, the fact fudging, the weird queerness-as-sinister-lure-for-innocent-Freddie approach that the rock god himself would surely have rolled his eyes at, the decent but for-awards-purposes lousy reviews, and so on. There is always the chance the Academy will fill up all their populist needs with Black Panther and A Star is Born and come to their senses unlike the Globes. Still, it's hot at a crucial time with voting, having just won the Globe and moving back into lots of theaters. Plus Queen is a nostalgic thing for a huge bulk of 50-60 somethings and that's the age range of a lot of AMPAS voters.
Adding to the atypical strength of this movie with awards bodies, people don't seem to mind the notion of voting for a Bryan Singer movie despite the multiple sexual misconduct allegations. The director has been celebrating on Instagram (see pic above) and he just received his own BAFTA nomination for the movie.
Can either of them win, though? No. Too much baggage. And the preferential balloting for the winner hurts the films that some people really dislike.
09 IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
If we get nine nominees, we think If Beale Street will be the one to just barely slip in despite a rocky presence in the precursor awards. You do not have to have thousands of votes to get a Best Picture nod but you do have to have hundreds of fans putting you at #1 on the ballot. And the people who love If Beale Street Could Talk are devoted. What's more it has a degree of prestige that some of its competitive set lacks.
Can it win, though? No. Not enough heat.
IF THERE'S A SURPRISE NOMINEE INSTEAD OF ONE OF THOSE ABOVE...
10 A QUIET PLACE It's stuck around in the conversation and other than Bohemian Rhapsody it's the year's biggest 'original' hit. That counts for something but we think Black Panther is going to hog the votes from Academy members who want Oscar to expand their interest in genre fare.
11 FIRST MAN Fans of great crafstmanship love it, but it struggled after audience disinterest in movie theaters. It might rally at the last second -- The Right Stuff (1983) is part of its cinematic lineage and that movie won several Oscar nominations despite also having trouble at the box office. Whether or not First Man surprises in Best Picture we are expecting a healthy nomination tally and either this film or Mary Poppins Returns will collect the title of "most nominations without a best picture bid"
12 MARY POPPINS RETURNS It's splashy and fun and a lot of people enjoy it. But unlike what we've seen with Bohemian Rhapsody fans, people who love it don't seem to have the need to proclaim it "Best!" which will not help. This awards season is so strange!
13/14 LEAVE NO TRACE and FIRST REFORMED Critically loved but the big problem for all the little films this year is that Roma has sucked up virtually all the oxygen in the critical discussion. And when you're a small film you need plenty of critical hoopla to win the kind of attention that gets you invited to the big show.
15 CRAZY RICH ASIANS Popular and hopefully influential. Actors like it (as we see with the SAG nomination) but as with Mary Poppins Returns people don't seem to feel the need to cry "Best!"
We don't actually know how many nominees we'll get this year. Mathematically we know it's possible for there to be anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees. Or so the Academy has told us. The reality thus far has been different. In the seven years since they implemented the variable amount of nominees system we've mostly had 9 nominees (five of those seven years) with 8 nominees happening just twice. We're totally curious if we'll ever see a 5, 6, 7 or 10 year at this point ! Aren't you?
THE NOMINATIONS WILL BE ANNOUNCED ON TUESDAY, JANUARY 22ND. THE OSCARS ARE HELD ON SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 24TH.
Reader Comments (59)
Nathaniel
I wouldn't be so presumptous to say these women don't merit representation. ALL could be represented in film (André Bazin). My take on the final shot is different than yours. There are cruel things that you can also leave out of frame (it's another cinematic device like the editing or ellipsis) It made my stomach turn after being invested (if not engrossed) most of the time.
I don't like the way the Queen is "represented" in the final sequences, particular that las shot.
I didn't mean to spoil it, but it is impossible to me not to do it when talking about why I didn't like it. Yes, Queen Anne is left with the cars, but another interpretation nods to ALL ABOUT EVE.
On the other hand, I think ELLE (a telling of a woman socyopath) is a masterpiece. So it's not that I don't like "troubled" women representations. I don't like it where they ultimate purpose it's to be mean. And I think, in the last shot, that's what the Queen became. That's it.
If the Oscars switched back to five nominees, I think Bohemian Rhapsody would make the cut at this point. It would be a minor surprise if it missed—so fifth or sixth place.
Ranking it at 07/08 feels like a stretch, just based on the way it's performing. I say that as dispassionately as possible.
It's weird to me that anyone would think that Queen Anne "became" toxic towards the end of the film. Did you see the "HOW DARE YOU!!!??? DON'T LOOK AT ME!" sequence? She was always toxic.
Top 5 with no director or screenplay tho, or a supporting performance that is even talked about?
Definitely has happened before, but some of the reviews are awful. Seems unlikely.
Like Chofer (and Nathaniel!), I love complex depictions of complicated women -- "Elle" and "All About Eve" cited in the threads above, for example. But neither of those films (nor so many others featuring female protagonists who are not saints) wallow in the misanthropic mud (literally, in one scene) in which Lanthimos wallows in "The Favourite." Chofer's takedown of the film (https://letterboxd.com/moviegoergeek/film/the-favourite/) is brilliant. He writes, "Women, it seems, serve to fight each other only, not making peace for further purposes. Their politics circumscribed to the bedroom or their rampant hormones. They're selfish as hell. They're also useless and needy (the Queen), boneheaded politicians (Lady Sarah) or social climbers (Abigail). Delicious trifecta." Exactly. The Queen is a caterwauling simpleton (not exactly the most feminist portrayal of a woman in power) (and I don't get the love for Colman's portrayal, either -- I think she's awful here), and the other two are just scheming (to quote Barbara Bush)... I won't say it but it rhymes with "witches." And not in the adorable way Colman used the term in her Golden Globes speech, either. So for all the scorn heaped on the sexual and racial politics of "Bohemian Rhapsody" and "Green Book," and "Vice," they're at least (admittedly mediocre) films trying to (admittedly unsuccessfully) say something meaningful about sexuality and race and power. I haven't understood why "The Favourite" has avoided the same scrutiny. I keep thinking the only reason is because men want to see women depicted in this debased manner.
I'm gay and have no problem with the story told in The Favourite. To me the most important theme in the film is the almost arbitrary nature of law-making in some quarters - how politicians and rulers often make their decisions based on who has their ear at a given moment. Think about the sorry mess we are in now with the government shutdown, how we nearly avoided it except for some vipers in rightwing media who raised their objections to our very impressionable idiot-in-chief.
IMHO, Bohemian Rhapsody, even with sexual politics set aside, is a crummy, pedestrian movie except for its final 15 minutes or so.
"The late release date obviously helped [Vice]..."
The corollary to this -- and I don't see it being said enough -- is that Oscar prognosticators are partially to blame for this. The studio pushing back the embargo to prevent negative review from entering the conversation works only because Oscar prognosticators (myself included) kept referring to Vice as a Best Picture contender for the six months that preceded the embargo. If everyone limited the Oscar conversation to movies that have been seen, Vice (and The Post, and War Horse, and...) would have had a much tougher road.
"I haven't understood why "The Favourite" has avoided the same scrutiny. I keep thinking the only reason is because men want to see women depicted in this debased manner."
dtsf - Well, yes. I also think it's the type of film that makes people feel cool for liking it, whereas Vice and Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody are easy targets, quite honestly.
I personally was troubled by the repeated need to debase the three women of The Favourite by (a) making jokes about or degrading their physical appearances (so many times I lost count), (b) showing them vomiting for laughs (not once but twice), and (c) having Joe Alwyn push Emma Stone off a cliff, also for laughs. This type of stuff wouldn't be tolerated by critics in a comedy for mass audiences starring Melissa McCarthy, but when Yorgos Lanthimos does it, it's best of the year material.
Rob: That's more a secondary satirical target, though. If they structured the movie around that as a primary target, it might have worked.
Suzanne: Even worse than the women in power stuff, there's how he treats the doves vs. hawks stuff. Even if we accept this is more dark nightmare drama than satire, he presents the doves being in power as the biggest nightmare situation. And, remember, Lanthimos shot a movie with this conclusion in 2017, not in 2015, not in 2016, where that might have been a solid (if slightly simplified) basis for satire, what with how milquetoast the Obama era, accidentally, wound up as. And Hollywood and critics are buying into this in 2018. In spite of how...TRUMPY...the implications of the ending are. And that part (which is NOT arguable) means giving Lanthimos and the screenwriters the benefit of the doubt on questions of misogyny is...naive.