Final Supporting Actor Predictions
Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 5:09PM by Nathaniel R
In a year of what appears to be abizarre cakewalk to an immediate second Oscar for leading man Mahershal Ali in Green Book, Best Supporting Actor is likely to be a bit dull this season. Nevertheless predict we must.
It's safe to say given the televised precursor wins and the strength of his film in the Best Picture race that Mahershala Ali is locked up for at least a nomination for his uneven leading performance despite this being a supporting category and despite his film being under constant attack. Adam Driver's film BlacKkKlansman has also been a consistent performer and Richard E Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? appears to be the only real threat to Mahershala Ali's Oscar at this point given widespread enthusiasm about his performance (that is IF his campaign can pick up any steam in the final stretch)...
That takes care of 3 of 5 slots but from there it gets trickier.
Timothée Chalamet has all three key precursors (Globe, SAG, BAFTA) and Sam Rockwell's small role in Vice has two (Globe, BAFTA), Sam Elliott's father-figure brother in A Star is Born has onely one of them (SAG). Statistics will tell you that that that means it's Chalamet and Rockwell for nominations with Elliott on the outside. I'm going against the grain and predicting, instead, a double Sam: Sam Elliott & Sam Rockwell for the fourth and fifth slots. Why? We'll we've seen many times over that a film having Best Picture heat helps its actors get nominated and Chalamet, if nominated, would be his film's sole Oscar nomination. What's more online punditry tends to get a big ageist and routinely favor young actors while the Academy often has wells of affection for older actors that online punditry doesn't quite get (see the strange resistance to Glenn Close's frontrunner status encountered all year online everywhere but here at The Film Experience.)
Nevertheless we assume the vote differentials will be very slim margins for those three players and any combo could happen. In fact, though we're not predicting it, we could even see a scenario where all three make it and one of the supposed locks, probably Driver, is the surprise omission.
All of which leaves us wondering what ever happened to Michael B Jordan's campaign for Black Panther. He who was so widely celebrated for his charismatic supervillain all year but when awards season came, crickets, despite the film performing well. We assumed he'd become the defacto way to honor Black Panther in the way that Regina King is becoming the defacto way to honor If Beale Street Could Talk or the way Kim Basinger became the way to honor LA Confidential or Mary J Blige to honor Mudbound or what not. Plus, he's already overdue for Oscar recognition! It's frankly mystifying that actors, in general, continue to have such trouble seeing the merits of performances that fall outside of traditional dramas or dramedies (see also Toni Collette in Hereditary) but it is what it is. If Jordan isn't a surprise inclusion despite little precursor interest we will be even more sure of our past morbid, but apparently realistic, assessment that even Heath Ledger wouldn't have been won Oscar honors for The Dark Knight if not for his tragic death.
On the other hand maybe if leading men like Chalamet and Ali hadn't been hogging 40% of the conversation about the final five for the supporting category, perhaps a supporting role like Jordan's would have sailed through the precursors to a nomination with little trouble? Maybe Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give or Daniel Kaluuya in Widows, or our beloved Alessandro Nivola in Disobedience, or critical darlings Hugh Grant in Paddington 2 and Steven Yeun in Burning might have magically gained more traction in a supporting-players- only fair fight? We'll never know!
Which five men do you think will be nominated?
Related
Final Best Picture predictions
Final Best Director predictions
Final Documentary predictions
Final Animated Feature predictions
Supporting Actor Oscar Chart
Reader Comments (44)
Do you think Sam Elliott's short screen time as opposed to the other potential nominees is working against him? I thought he was terrific and can't believe he's not getting more recognition.
Newsflash: Jordan's performance isn't nearly as great as Ledger's. There's just no comparison. There's even a big scene in Black Panther that Jordan fumbles with atrocious line delivery.
I can't believe Sam Elliott isn't getting more recognition either. Hugh Grant would be my choice, but of the plausible contenders, Elliott would have my vote. When I first saw it, I thought he was a shoo-in for the Oscar.
...and I do wonder how many voters realize that Ali isn't actually playing the piano in Green Book, though I know Ali has been great about not taking credit for it. When I first saw it, I was amazed he was such a talented pianist but later discovered it was all a very convincing double.
Couple years back, the Emmys finally had a rule crackdown to prevent performers from submitting as Guest Actor or Guest Actress if their episode count in a TV season hit 50% and above. What would it take for the Academy to reform their Supporting categories?
Ali is about to be Vikander 2.0, and it depresses me for the Sam Elliotts who might get nominated but can’t beat a lead performance in the same category with only one-tenth the screen time or the Josh Hamiltons who can’t even make a critics top-five ballot because all the air in the room is going to a rubber-stamped lead all season long.
Where’s the shame? And can outrage culture spare us just one big day on Twitter, long enough to get this trending so someone will have to address it and at least get a little egg on their face?
Seems like the Academy voters are sherple just placing Leads in Supporting because ‘that’s what the promotional material says.’ You’d think that when it comes time to cast their final votes, most of these sheeple voters don’t even have the outrage to vote against Category Fraud.
Nat what's the picture of Sam Elliott crying from,I don't remember it in the film ASIB.
I totally agree with your 5,Chalamet drops off if not Driver.
I wouldn't count out Jonathan Pryce for The Wife. With Glenn Close gaining so much momentum, he might be able to squeak in on her coattails.
This BLACK PANTHER acting nom talk is making me wonder how the hell Al Pacino got a nomination for DICK TRACY.
I would be totally impressed if Brian Tyree Henry bubbled up out of nowhere for the fifth nominee, ideally for Beale Street, but Widows would also be a good alternative.
@Tr Totally agree. When in comes to Black Panther supporting men, I was way more interested in what Winston Duke was bringing to the table .
I'm predicting the same five.
I'm tired you constantly bashing Ali's performance. If you want to complain ad nauseam about category fraud fine but "uneven"? Please give it a rest. Mahershala's work is quietly commanding and slyly funny. He transcends what's been given to him on the pages and delivers a beautifully touching and soulful performance on screen.
I think Elliott makes it in. He may even win at SAG.
Please spread the wealth, Academy. PPPPPLLLLLLLEEEEEAAAAASSSEEEE!!!!!!
Jakey-it was 1990 and Pacino still didn’t have an Oscar. At that point they’d have nominated him for anything in hopes of him winning.
Jakey: Al Pacino is impeccable in Dick Tracy. Such a wonderful peformance of a comic-book villain (in both senses of the term). The Academy - and BAFTA and the Globes - were right to nominate him.
I'm feeling that a month from now, Sam Elliot pulls a James Coburn and wins the Oscar.
I'm so bummed that Josh Hamilton for Eighth Grade and Hugh Grant for Paddington 2 never gained any traction. Instead we have category frauders leading the way. *Sigh*
Oh, and I forgot about Alex Wolff in "Hereditary!" Although it could be argued that he's a lead actor, his character is in that gray area that being nominated in supporting isn't as egregious as Ali or The Favourite actresses going in as supporting players.
Crowe deserved to be in the conversation for "Boy Erased" along with Kidman. It's too bad everyone collectively ignored him.
The thing with Ledger is that his performance was everywhere, even before he passed. And while you may have gone a little overboard in nominating him as a lead, that's an overboard decision you could never make with Jordan. He was more visible.
A lot of options. I think Chalamet is absolutely fantastic, but obviously not supporting. I think he's in. Think Grant will win.
Just came back from The Favourite and surprised Colman goes as the sole lead, given that the obvious supporting player (Hoult) feels like he's in the film that much less.
That's a whole other thing, but could definitely see him getting in. With Nivola and The Death of Stalin guys all missing, I can say I'd love to see Hoult and Jordan make it.
Wasn’t Jonathan Pryce in THE WIFE more of a lead actor though? He was in almost every scene with Glenn Close.
If anything I’d prefer Christian Slater here
feels like he's *not* in the film that much less.
Ali - Chalamet - Driver - Grant - Rockwell
Ali is doing amazing work in True Detective. That won't hurt his chances.
I'm a Richard E. Grant voter.
I’d rather have Chalamet nominated than these older actors. Young actors are barely recognized by the Academy. It’s always the older ones who get nominated, so I celebrate that Chalamet is in contention. We complain a lot about black or Asian or Latino actors not being nominated. Young actors also don’t get their due, no matter how good they are.
I don’t give a hoot anymore if Chalamet isn’t a supporting actor in Beautiful Boy. He gave a terrific performance and just as worthy as Grant or Ali or Elliot. I really think that at this point, we should stop complaining about category fraud. It is what it is and we can’t change it at this point.
I don't believe Elliott has the reverential respect you'd assume from the actors' branch behind A Star Is Born in this category. On the podcast Nick Davis didn't understand Driver's precursor recognition but the opportunity is now to award him his first nomination and I think that's all this is.
My prediction: Ali, Driver, Chalamet, Grant, Rockwell, with the Oscar going to Ali.
My preference: Grant, Yeun, Elliott, Ali, and Jordan or Hornsby, with the Oscar going to Grant or Yeun.
I tend to predict that the worst possible things will happen, as though the Academy were trolling me personally, so I see it as possible that they’ll exclude both Grant and Elliott, both of whose omissions would make me sad. I love Ali and can’t bring myself to root against him, but I think Grant and Yeun are both more deserving of the actual award. I wish Yeun had a prayer, but alas.
Elliott wins if nominated, just like Alan Arkin and James Coburn
Since Ali is sooo beloved, maybe the voters wld elevate him to Lead Actor category, replacing Viggo's spot?? One can hope, rite?? 😂
I believe Ali wld still b nom had he campaigned in Lead, but I guess someone is greedy for a 2nd win n taking the easier way out!
Best scenario: Voters put Ali lead (ala Winslet in The Reader) n drop Timmy due to cat fraud, opening up two precious spots to real supp players, beside Grant, Driver n Elliot.
But at this juncture, I tink Nat's prediction is the most likely.
Not excited about this category at all this year but Chalamet should be nominated and win to make up for last year. Or Richard E Grant.
Just watched Boy Erased and where's the love for Russell Crowe? As good as any other supporting performance this year.
I see pretty close to 0% chance of Rockwell. He's terrific, but it's very much a little piece of a puzzle, not a performance with the necessary depth. Not his fault, but that's not what the role is.
So I'd be shocked.
Can somebody - anybody- please explain to me the rise of Sam Rockwell in Vice? I know, I know : afterglow nomination. There is just nothing THERE besides a third rate SNL impression. And yet I am predicting him over Elliott which will piss me off to no end.
I think A Star is Born is fading and Vice is rising (judging by Bale’s double win at the Critics’ Choice Awards this week, when voting was on) so I suspect Rockwell is in over Elliott.
Remember two years ago when we were all rooting for Mahershala to win? LOL.
I don’t see how he loses at this point, which is a shame.
Am I wrong to believe that Driver is also a co-lead in his film? It’s been months since I’ve seen it, but the story is impossible without him and he probably has about the same amount of screen time as JDW?
Nivola is only supporting if you're not buying the love triangle.
I wholeheartedly agree with the labeling of Stone and Weisz in supporting as category fraud, but I don't agree AT ALL that Mahershala Ali is a lead actor in the film. He's hardly in any important scene by himself and the film is really made from Tony's perspective.
As for Chalamet, his situation makes me understand why even critics and the actors (i.e. SAG) can be prone to the fraud. I can't quite consider him a co-lead because he's not in as many scenes as he should be (one of the things that annoyed me about the film), but he's so good that I'd nominate him in supporting even if he isn't quite the legit supporting player.
There's a much better argument for Colman going supporitng than either Ali or Chalamet. In fact, compared with Hoult, I wonder how crazy that is.
Rockwell hardly does just an impression. His character doesn't play as stupid as an impression would. But it's the impression part of his performance that is attracting awards attention, and it unfortunately downplays his work.
He's just one of the characters.
I love Mahershala Ali but I saw Green Book last week and he is indeed a co-lead, just like the 3 women starring in The Favourite. I disagree w/ the person above who said we should all stop complaining about category fraud, it is what it is, etc. It's dishonest and patently unfair to actual supporting players, who annually get shafted due to the practice. And it's very troubling that critics groups are going along with it this year (in what world is Emma Stone possibly a supporting player in The Favourite, the whole thing is seen through her perspective).
I want Richard E. Grant to get the Oscar in Supporting Actor this time around. He's so good in it and it's an actual supporting role.
I really wish upon my "Awards Freakin Obsessed Heart" that someone ANYONE would stop the category fraud. It's so frustrating. Are actors that obsessed with winning an Oscar that they will go along with the campaign even when they know their performance is really LEAD or really SUPPORTING? Sigh.... I miss the old days when their was little to no category fraud.
My picks:
Male -
Hugh Grant
Elliot
Rockwell
Driver
Richard Grant
When people say someone should should be nominated or outright win because they're young or a minority or "overdue" just makes the whole act of awarding as absurd as the entire category fraud argument in the first place.
If we fight to make it about the performance, then why would we fight for these other outliers or conditions?
Michael B. Jordan is a totally competent actor who did absolutely nothing special in Black Panther. I just have to count myself out on that one, as I have zero idea what the fuss is about. Chalamet was perfectly fine in Beautiful Boy, even if he was clearly in a different movie than Carrell, but I won't blame Chalamet for that, as this is the director's doing (or not doing) when it comes to modulating his or her actors' performances so they match the tone of the film. Chalamet is still wet behind the ears, and good for him for going for it, but the performance is messy, and not in the drug addict way, but more in the "I'm not entirely sure how to play a drug addict" way (which is fine, that's hard). He needs to do different things; hopefully he'll do something else with Little Women and his upcoming period drama, because his acting when taken as a whole is very stale.
Grant, Elliott, and the unspoken champions in the race (Nivola, Hamilton, and I'd even mention Jason Clarke from First Man and my favorite supporting performance by a male actor this year, Hoult in The Favourite) do fantastic work, with Grant getting my vote for nailing a hard character to nail, and making me laugh while also caring about his journey and where it ends.
It's a weak race for supporting actors this year, and the award bodies fumbled their nominations nearly the whole way there. Here's hoping some wins and the Academy can remedy some of that...
Have to strongly disagree with Manny.
Jordan plays a direct character and he's the difference between the movie being good and being almost good. Taking into account all of his performances, he's much better than competent.
Also, with Chalamet, he's outstanding. I see what you're saying about tones, but that's in the director's muddled approach. With him and Ali in their correct category, there are about 10 worthy performances.
I think, right now, Jordan gets in.
I think Chalamet is very strong, and a lead role which actually helps.
I think Elliot goes missing for a long stretch in the film, and the emotional gravitas of his scenes with Cooper are 100% about Cooper.
Hoult and Jonathan Pryce (another lead) are my darkhorses, with my near inclination to pick each of them (but not both).