BAFTA's Oscar Predictions... er, Nominations. BAFTA's Nominations!
Wednesday, January 9, 2019 at 8:29AM by Nathaniel R
The BAFTA nominations are in and, what do you know? There is no difference whatsoever in which 8 or 9 films each awards group watches each year! One longs for a utopia where each major organization longs to shout their own identity out to the world (in some ways we are what we love) rather than just predict the Oscars but in our current dystopia, people in the industry -- no matter which country they live in! -- only watch 9 movies a year before voting.
Here are the nominees with commentary...
Best film
- BlackkKlansman
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- A Star Is Born
In the bygone years of five nominations only for Best Picture at the Oscars the race looks like it would be down to 7 films now, these 5 above as well as Black Panther and (ugh) Vice. In fact, having 7 nominees only at Oscar this year wouldn't surprise us at all given how dominant those 7 films appear to be. It makes sense that Panther and Vice would be the two to fall out with BAFTA since they're surely more resonant in America...
Outstanding British film
- Beast
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- McQueen
- Stan & Ollie
- You Were Never Really Here
The Favourite gets the annual "both lists" plug but it is interesting to see a documentary make the list. There are six nominees -- Guy Lodge informs us that this one is half juried. So a panel selects three entries and the general voting population of BAFTA selects the others. It's pretty easy to see which is which!
And yes this means Bryan Singer got a nomination this awards season.
Bryan Singer gets a BAFTA nod. Yikes. pic.twitter.com/oPgZrxXaHL
— Guy Lodge (@GuyLodge) January 9, 2019
Leading actor
- Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
- Christian Bale - Vice
- Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
- Steve Coogan - Stan & Ollie
- Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
The only uniquely British inclusion for the British Academy is Steve Coogan in Stan & Ollie. This is a reminder that the fifth slot at the Oscars is still very much in play and we still believe passion votes (you have to have #1s) will give it to Ethan Hawke for First Reformed.
Leading actress
- Glenn Close - The Wife
- Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
- Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Olivia Colman - The Favourite
- Viola Davis - Widows
Viola Davis, surprise! And, as with Best Actor this serves as a reminder that the fifth slot is very much in play. Mary Poppins Returns apparently just didn't make a splash within the industry so Emily Blunt will have to wait another 12 years for that first Oscar nomination she deserved 12 years ago. Another noticeable exclusion: Even though BAFTA embraced Roma and BlacKkKlansman, notice that their leading actors did not make the corresponding lead lists.
Supporting actor
- Adam Driver - BlackkKlansman
- Mahershala Ali - Green Book
- Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- Sam Rockwell - Vice
- Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
40% leading actors! This appears to be the Oscar list (it's the exact same list as the Globes), give or take Sam Elliott. And I can't believe we have to say "or take" because he absolutely deserves to be there. If there weren't so many Category Fraud inclusions each year, there would be room for the great character actors! GRRRRRRRRRR
Supporting actress
- Amy Adams - Vice
- Claire Foy - First Man
- Emma Stone - The Favourite
- Margot Robbie - Mary Queen of Scots
- Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
40% leading actresses. Same list as SAG but for Claire Foy in place of Emily Blunt's leading role in A Quiet Place. Despite missing SAG and BAFTA we don't think Regina King, our Globe winner, is in trouble and we suspect that it's Robbie and Foy fighting for that fifth slot even though we have to wonder what happened to the great Elizabeth Debicki in Widows (besides Category Fraud crowding her out, of course) and Nicole Kidman this year, who seemed to be in both lead and supporting conversations just a couple of months ago.
Director
- Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
- Paweł Pawlikowski - Cold War
- Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
- Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
- Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Oooh, some intrigue. This list is MILES better than what the Directors Guild of America came up with. Here's hoping that the Lanthimos and Pawlikowski inclusions suggest that it's Farrelly and McKay who are vulnerable in best director and not anyone else.
EE Rising Star Award (voted for by the public)
- Jessie Buckley
- Cynthia Erivo
- Barry Keoghan
- Lakeith Stanfield
- Letitia Wright
We previously discussed this category here. I'm rooting for Erivo. You?
Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer
- Apostasy - Daniel Kokotajlo (writer/director)
- Beast - Michael Pearce (writer/director), Lauren Dark (producer)
- A Cambodian Spring - Chris Kelly (writer/director/producer)
- Pili - Leanne Welham (writer/director), Sophie Harman (producer)
- Ray & Liz - Richard Billingham (writer/director), Jacqui Davies (producer)
Ray & Liz was well liked on the festival circuit but hasn't opened in the US yet. And Beast made a much bigger splash in the UK (given its awards presence here and elsewhere over there) as opposed to here in the States where it earned $800,000 at the arthouse box office this past summer. The other three are new titles to us so we'll have to investigate.
Film not in the English language
- Capernaum
- Cold War
- Dogman
- Roma
- Shoplifters
Italy's Dogman, which took Best Actor at Cannes, missed the finalist list for the Oscars this year but the rest of them might well become nominees at Oscar.
Documentary
- Free Solo
- McQueen
- RBG
- They Shall Not Grow Old
- Three Identical Strangers
McQueen and They Shall Not Grow Old did not make the Oscar finals but the rest were major box office hits and are also expected to become nominees.
Animated film
- Incredibles 2
- Isle of Dogs
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Since they only have 3 nominees in BAFTA (which is all they should really have at the Oscars, given the small amount of movies eligible) this is a reminder that these are the only three films that could actually win the Animated Feature Oscar. I know people think that Into the Spider-Verse has the win locked up but I think it's still a fight, because Oscar loves Pixar most (they've won 50% of the Oscars in the category) and Wes Anderson is still Oscar-less.
Original screenplay
- Cold War
- The Favourite
- Green Book
- Roma
- Vice
Good showing for Cold War at BAFTAs. Interesting that Vice managed so many nominations but not Best Film
Adapted screenplay
- BlacKkKlansman
- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
- First Man
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- A Star Is Born
Color me surprised that A Star is Born keeps making writing lists. As you know, I love the movie, but I suspected that the writer's branch would give it a pass with so many other more "writerly" options (like Leave No Trace) out there as well as other adaptation options that lean populist (Crazy Rich Asians, Black Panther). Note: Death of Stalin was ineligible here, since it was nominated last year but IS eligible for the Oscars this year.
Original music
- BlackkKlansman
- If Beale Street Could Talk
- Isle of Dogs
- Mary Poppins Returns
- A Star Is Born
Great to see BlacKkKlansman makes this list because Spike Lee's main composer Terence Blanchard has still never been Oscar nominated! BAFTA doesn't differentiate between songs and score which is why A Star is Born is here.
Cinematography
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- Cold War
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Roma
Okay. So. Bohemian Rhapsody (sigh). Newton Thomas Sigel, Bryan Singer's regular DP, has never been Oscar-nominated despite great great work in his filmography in films like Refn's Drive, Russell's, Three Kings and Singer's X2. And he did have to briefly take over the Directors chair on that movie when Bryan Singer went AWOL on set so one feels for him because surely that shoot was a nightmare. But still. It remains insane that this is the movie that has risen up so strongly for awards. When was the last time a production this troubled, with such a clearly fictional self-flattering point of view about real history (hi surviving Queen members), did this well?
The longwinded point is this: Sigel is talented but if we're talking the shooting of concert scenes, Matthew Libatique's work on A Star is Born, which was excluded, is pretty great.
Costume design
- The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Mary Queen of Scots
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is a wildcard in the Oscar race, and not just in this category. It *technically* qualifies for the Oscars but, unlike Roma, which got a lot of media attention for its itty bitty theatrical race, this surely feels more Netflixy and thus more TV to some voters. But Oscar loves the Coen brothers so we'll see.
Editing
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Roma
- Vice
Sigh. no comment
Production design
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- The Favourite
- First Man
- Mary Poppins Returns
- Roma
How many times does Stuart Craig need to be nominated for doing Potterverse films? He's been nominated for 9 BAFTAs for the 10 Potterverse films, winning 2 of them just for this series alone. How many times is enough? I'm asking for a friend, who is me, who doesn't want movie awards to become Emmy Awards which is a real possibility in our current franchise world.
Make-up and hair
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- The Favourite
- Mary Queen of Scots
- Stan & Ollie
- Vice
The only one of these that didn't make Oscar's 7 film wide finals is The Favourite. But Oscar only allows 3 nominations and it's competitive.
Sound
- Bohemian Rhapsody
- First Man
- Mission: Impossible - Fallout
- A Quiet Place
- A Star Is Born
Unlike their American counterparts BAFTA doesn't let the sound people have two separate awards.
Special visual effects
- Avengers: Infinity War
- Black Panther
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
- First Man
- Ready Player One
Fantastic Beasts didn't make the 10 wide finals for Oscar's Visual Effects so this can't be the Oscar list. But the fifth slot (if First Man is truly in there which we're not certain of) is a wide open competition. We knew all along that Black Panther would sail in to a nomination on its popularity but it's kind of a shame because the visual fx are one of its weakest elements in terms of craft since some other departments were just killing it. That final battle sequence between Killmonger and Black Panther is soooo rubbery. It's too early to pour one out for a snub but I feel for Ant-Man and the Wasp which I'd argue has the best fx of a Marvel movie this year and it's surely the one that Oscar will skip just as BAFTA did.
British short film
- 73 Cows
- Bachelor
- The Blue Door
- The Field
- Wale
British short animation
- I'm OK
- Marfa
- Roughhouse
Outstanding contribution to British cinema
- Stephen Woolley and Elizabeth Karlsen (Producers. Their credits, together or separately include: Carol, Colette, The Crying Game, Youth, Mrs Harris, Ladies in Lavender, The End of the Affair, Interview with the Vampire and more...)
Reader Comments (100)
So YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE was eligible, but snubbed for every categories except for British Film?
The lack of JOAQUIN PHOENIX in the award chatter is PUZZLING!
Yesssss for Viola Davis. I hope she surprises with an Oscar nodd!
LOVE LOVE LOVE the Best Director list here!!
PLEASE let the Oscars notice!
Regina King IS NOT nominated for SAG award. It's Emily Blunt (for "A Quiet Place") that was replaced here by Claire Foy. (Or, if you want to compare with the Globe nominations - Regina King was replaced by Margot Robbie.).
Still: King can't win Oscar without SAG and BAFTA nominations (unless she's the second Marcia Gay Harden).
I'm with FR - the lack of Phoenix in "award chatter" is, to me, the most surprising thing of this season, especially since many people seem to think it's an unusually thin Actor field. I'd have expected him to pick up at least a few more critics awards.
I miss the BAFTAs being independent too; they’re so excited at being a precedent award they lose their individuality. It will be interesting to see what their Best Actress choice is - Colman is a national treasure with three TV BAFTAs already so if Glenn Close won here they should pretty much stencil her name on the Oscar now.
(Quick clarification re Adapted Screenplay: Death of Stalin was a 2017 release in the UK so it received a nomination in this category last year)
Someone -- i knew that. Thanks for catching my mistake. I type so fast and sometimes the names come out wrong and Regina King is very much on the brain :)
Scott, thanks
Am I allowed to say 'told you so' about Emily Blunt and us Brits hating her silly accent?
Regina King is not nominated for a SAG. It was Emily Blunt who was nominated along with Margot Robbie.
So she may indeed be in danger. I fear for her .
I feel for Emily Blunt.
Bafta have an awful habit of snubbing their own stars, despite them getting precursor love elsewhere, I always think of Keira being snubbed for Pride And Prejudice.
Actress is going to Olivia Colman, without a doubt. Although they don't always nominate them, once nominated they award their own, I'm thinking of Carey in An Education, Imelda in Vera Drake.
I feel pretty confident that Sam Elliott is this year's Michael Stuhlbarg. The days of supporting performances that make a brief but big splash seem to be over.
I think the Bafta's were more inspired than the usual, but maybe it's my Cold War love talking.
I think the 5th slot in Best Actress is getting very exciting with Blunt seemingly drifting back but with no clear other option.
Would love to see the academy pull a Castle-Hughes and spring a surprise lead nom for Thomasin McKenzie although given they're likely to legitimise so many fraudulent supporting nods I don't think it's going to happen. That said any of the following could rise to the top:
Viola Davis
Yalitza Aparicio
Toni Collette
Carey Mulligan
Joanna Kulig
Nicole Kidman
Charlize Theron
Regina Hall
Elsie Fisher
Rosamund Pike
Constance Wu
Alia Shawkat
In spite of her success with SAG, the fact that Emily Blunt missed here, as Brit that has seen this group support her in the past, makes me think that she'll miss.
I'm excited for Viola. I don't think there will be any Oscar carryover, but it looks like this is BAFTA's way of honoring McQueen's film.
Keegan - Emily Blunt was BAFTA nominated for both The Devil Wears Prada and The Girl On The Train. She’s doing fine. 😉
That Director list is great. Ideally I’d swap Cooper for Ramsey though.
I know bafta has been criticised in the past for being biased towards British films and British actors, but I kind of wish they’d go back to that, at leat they had an identity then. All this love for Vice for example. Why On earth would that movie be resonating with British voters? It’s such a desperate attempt to align themselves with American award shows.
And Lastly, I’m so fucking sick of category fraud. We just need one high profile actor to call it out.
Year after year BAFTA gives us the best lists of any mainstream outfit.
Viola! That director lineup! I don't even mind the Robbie nomination because at least it proves that many voters saw more than ten films this year.
BAFTA actually isn't too bad this year! Much better than SAG.
A couple of thoughts:
That Director list is AWESOME! I haven't seen Cold War yet, but after Ida I'd nominate Pawlikowski for anything.
This was First Man's last chance to make a stand. Claire Foy pops up again but she's a national treasure so that's not surprising. Even though it's set around one of the greatest moments in American history I thought maybe the Brits would back it over something like Green Book or BlacKkKlansman, but as you said, predicting Oscar is the main goal.
Mary Poppins Returns is dead, and good for it. It's not a terrible film, but it's at best a Force Awakens-style redo of the classic. Blunt has been so deserving in the past but not here.
I have to go with Lakeith Stanfield. His Cassius Green is my favorite performance of the year.
The craft nominations are booooring. I hope to see more originality (hint less Bohemian Fantastic Beasts) from Oscar. A Star is Born will surely get more nominations than BAFTA gave it.
BJT-
I'm still amazed that Julia Roberts is nowhere in the mix for BEN IS BACK. she's so powerful in it and a huge star.
I don't Regina King's Oscar chances are over (in terms of a win) but if BAFTA and SAG hand the win to Amy Adams then I think the overdue win narrative will take hold for her and it might just be unstoppable.
I can't decide whether to stop predicting Blunt for the fifth Best Actress spot. The big question is, if not her, who?
But with the preferential ballot who knows where the most passionate constituency is. Or if the Academy wants to be imaginative. If they don't, Blunt could get in.
She may still have the thinnest advantage over Aparicio, Kidman, and now Davis. I can see a Laura Linneyesque nod for Julia Roberts before I can see Collette getting nominated.
It's time to give it up. Apart from Marcia Gay Harden, who was the last person to win Oscar without Bafta and Sag nominations?
Am i the only one who thinks that Early Man could it he nominated for Animated Feature here? I hate watching the same titles and names in every categorie from diferent associations in awards season.
Where is the diversity?
Apostasy is wonderful, one of the most interesting films of the year. It's about a single mother, a devout Jehovah's Witness, and her two daughters, who are beginning to find their own way in the world. It's delicate and thoughtful, with a great performance from Siobhan Finneran as the mother forced to come to terms with the decisions she's made on her daughters' behalf.
A shame not to see Solo or Ant-Man get in for VFX.
Cesar, I think before they changed nomination process for Animated, it would have been. Now it's a foregone conclusion because everybody votes on it that it won't. It is indeed a shame.
Would anyone have Blunt in their top 5 Best Actress list this year? I am asking sincerely - I haven't seen the film. But there are so many great contenders this year that I have had trouble reducing my list to 5.
I will be really disappointed if Amy Adams wins for Vice. I love Adams and want her to win an Oscar, but there are plenty of other "career Oscars" they can give out for superior work, this year of all years.
I echo the sentiments of the person who said they love Amy Adams but would hate to see her win for this performance. Vice was such a mess and McKay's shoddy script and direction allowed no real complexity.
Also it would be strange for her to win Supporting Actress for playing a political spouse when vastly superior performances of the same vein have lost (looking at you, Joan Allen and Sally Field).
Suzanne, I think Adams is strong in the first half of the film , but then the script sort of forgets about her once Cheney (spoiler) becomes VP. It wont be the worst career win they've handed out (should it happen)
McQueen got two noms
They remembered Dogman, which is excellent
and First Man got 7.
well done, Brits
OFFS in "Editing"? ....yeah so basically NO COMMENT....
Well that complicates things more for Regina King. It's hard to view both SAG & BAFTA as oversights. But I still feel she has a good chance for some reason. It seems like this year has had more of these kinds of anomalies than before. I dare say maybe it's because despite some knockout performances, many of the films have been underwhelming?
Re: Regina King, has If Beale Street Could Talk even been released yet in the U.K.? This may explain why she’s missing from the lineup as in certain years, Oscar-winning actresses like Charlize Theron (Monster), Halle Berry (Monster’s Ball), and Hilary Swank (Boys Don’t Cry) were not BAFTA-nominated till a year or so “after* their films were released in the U.S.
Amy Adams is young, working all the time, very visible. She's been a great actor, but she's not one of three, so she doesn't need a career Oscar. She could win because she's very good and maybe King doesn't win, but her SAG snub is well explained. Missing BAFTA doesn't seem that big a deal to me.
Someone did predict that Blunt wouldn't do well with BAFTA. Her accent is fine, but her performance is lovely. If she misses or makes, I don't think BAFTA will be an indicator.
And yes, damn, Joaquin Phoenix. What does he have to do?
A heads-up to anyone interested: Apostasy is streamable on Amazon Prime.
I think Roberts could get that fifth spot in Actress. Her reviews are fantastic and Blunt seems to be fading quite a bit.
Mareko - Beale Street hasn't been released in the UK yet, but Regina King was eligible here.
Mareko, If Beale Street is nominated in the adapted screenplay category so its eligibility in the UK is this year.
You keep mentioning that all the ladies in The Favourite should be lead. But have three performances in one film ever been considered as leading performances? I agree that Emma Stone should be lead, but I'm totally ok with Weisz being in supporting. Actually Colman should be in supporting too.
And yet again PFEIFFER is forgotten for KYRA :(
PFEIFFER :(
Rod - I think the last time that three performances in a movie were nominated as lead in the same category was in the 1935 “Mutiny on the Bounty”. Clark Gable, Franchit Tone, and Charles Laughton were all three nominated for Best Actor.
Rod and KristenCraze -- it's not just Mutiny on the Bounty. Network (1976) also had three leading actors nominated: DUNAWAY, FINCH, and HOLDEN
evangelina--King has won an overwhelming 19 critics prizes. I believe she is safe without BAFTA and SAG nods.
I love Emily Blunt, but if she's out with Oscar, is this a pathway for Collette or Kidman? Collette is my No. 2 for the year and I'm seeing Destroyer this weekend.
This director lineup is a tonic after the DGA announcement yesterday. Sigh.
Mareko: Regina King's absence can't be explained on the theory that the film's release date made it ineligible. It was nominated for adapted screenplay and score, so clearly King's performance was eligible as well. I suspect voters couldn't pick a FAVOURITE between Rachel and Emma and had to have both. And the British probably also felt more favorably inclined towards Foy because she's British and Robbie because she played a former Queen of England (and is a subject of the current one). As to why they may have favored Amy Adams over Regina, well...Adams has been nominated six times and has never won. That narrative pulls sympathy her way.
By the way, Bryan Singer is nominated for Bohemian Rhapsody in the Best British Film category. I wonder if he'll attend the ceremony.
brookesboy - You believe King is safe for a win or a nomination? Sorry to say I think she is safe for neither, with a nomination slightly more likely. Claire Foy is genuinely in a better position. And last time I looked Ethan Hawke had 28 critic wins...
More than anything I think King's GG win secures a nomination. Visibility at just the right time.
Sometimes stats need to be thrown out the window... as recent Oscar telecasts have proven. You can’t tell me nothing about Regina King’s chances... she’s winning that Oscar! SAG (voters didn’t watch If Beale Street in time) and BAFTA (British folk don’t care about black American actors. See Denzel Washington, Cuba Gooding Jr, Taraji P Henson, etc) won’t matter as much this year.
Two weeks ago Emily Blunt was a potential double nominee, and now... the race is crazy fun.
Regina King is locked, absolutely.