NBR goes crazy for Scorsese with a little love left over for Clint & Quentin
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 2:52PM by Nathaniel R
The National Board of Review is often derided online for being such a confusing and secretive organization (they cant correctly be defined as a critics group though the media / online pundits love to inaccurately list them that way). Nevertheless they've been a significant Oscar bellwether nonetheless. That's partially from positioning since for many years they were the first awards body to announce. This year, they still acknowledged their favourite person on earth (Clint Eastwood) with three citations for Richard Jewell but they’ve transferred most of their 'we stan legends' obsessive devotion to Martin Scorsese who wins Best Film AND is being honored in Best Documentary AND with a special “Icon” prize. If that weren’t enough two films he executive produced (Uncut Gems and The Souvenir) are also cited with awards or lists.
Though the multiple lists each year assure that a huge bulk of Oscar contenders are accounted for there are notable omissions each year. Some high profile films they completely ignored were: Joker, The Two Popes, Little Women, Hustlers, Rocketman, Clemency, and Bombshell.
Here are the films and actor they'll be honoring on January 8th in NYC. We've also added some stats to give these awards a bit of prognosticating contex...
THE HEADLINE CATEGORIES
Stats referenced below are, unless otherwise noted, are from the last 20 years
FILM The Irishman
This is only the second time a Scorsese picture has won their top prize. The first time was for Hugo (2011). That said he took their best director prize thrice for Age of Innocence (1993), The Departed (2006) and Hugo (2011) .
Stats: The NBR choice for Best Film goes on to a Best Picture nomination about 85% of the time. It wins the Oscar much less frquently. The only examples in the past twenty years were No Country For Old Men (2007), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), and Green Book (2018).
DIRECTOR Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This is the second NBR win for Tarantino who also won it for Pulp Fiction
Stats: The ratio of winning this to receiving an Oscar nomination is about 40%. Last year was kind of a perfect example in that they went with the very buzzy Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born... but Oscar's directing branch passed.
ACTRESS Renee Zellweger, Judy
Stats: About 80% of winners here go on to Oscar nominations. This is one of their least adventurous categories as they usually pick someone who is perceived to be in the thick of the Oscar mix.
ACTOR Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Stats: 85% of winners here go on to Oscar nominations. When they do stray from Oscar buzz they often choose someone far outside of it.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
This is the second win for Kathy Bates at the NBR. She also took this prize for About Schmidt (2002)
Stats: About 50% of their winners go on to Oscar nominations, though its quite rare that they actually repeat the win at the Oscars. Last year's win for If Beale Street's Regina King was the exception rather than the rule.
SUPPORTING ACTOR Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Stats: 80% of their winners go on to Oscar nominations, with 20% also winning the Oscar.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
BEST ENSEMBLE Knives Out
Stats: The Oscars don't have an ensemble prize but the NBR often disagrees with the most famous such prize, the SAG "Outstanding Cast". Only about 50% of their winners go on to a nomination at SAG. There have been just four shared winners in history: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003), No Country for Old Men (2007), The Help (2011), and Hidden Figures (2016).
MORE PRIZES
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Irishman
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Uncut Gems
BEST ANIMATED FILM How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST FOREIGN FILM Parasite
BEST DOCUMENTARY Maiden
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
SPECIAL PRIZES
NBR FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION For Sama and Just Mercy
NBR ICON AWARD Martin Scorsese, Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino
They didn’t give out there annual William K Everson Film History Award this year.
THEIR "LISTS"
One should note here that the winners for best film, best documentary, and best foreign film are never actually included in the "top" ___ lists... as if they're floating above the entire list.
TOP 10 FILMS
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1917
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Dolemite Is My Name
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Ford V Ferrari
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Jojo Rabbit
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Knives Out
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Marriage Story
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Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
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Richard Jewell
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Uncut Gems
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Waves
TOP 10 INDEPENDENT FILMS
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The Farewell
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Give Me Liberty
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A Hidden Life
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Judy
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The Last Black Man in San Francisco
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Midsommar
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Nightingale
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The Peanut Butter Falcon
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The Souvenir
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Wild Rose
TOP FIVE DOCUMENTARIES
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American Factory
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Apollo 11
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The Black Godfather
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Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story by Martin Scorsese
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Wrestle
American Factory, Apollo 11, and For Sama (which shared the freedom of expression prize) are all looking strong going into Oscar voting for Best Documentary.
TOP FIVE FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS
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Atlantics
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Invisible Life
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Pain and Glory
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Portrait of a Lady on Fire
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Transit
What a category. We love all five of those pictures, the latter two of which are sadly not eligible for the Oscar for Best International Film
What do you think of NBR's choices this year?
NBR, Oscars (19)
Reader Comments (21)
Renee's first NBR win since the breakthrough prize for Jerry Maguire!
She's never won any of the other big critics awards (besides BFCA). I always love it when people double back to win things they missed in previous go-rounds. :)
I'm already starting to get the impression that Best Actor is going to be all over the place this year and we probably won't have a clear five going into nomination morning. Driver and Phoenix are the only two I consider locks at this point, and maybe I'm alone in thinking this, but I could even see Phoenix missing out if the critics don't start rallying around him just because of the divisive nature of the film. The other three slots seem to be completely up for grabs and could go to any combination of De Niro, Banderas, Pryce, DiCaprio, Murphy, Sandler, Hauser, and maybe even Egerton.
These wins and lists feel very ... male. Despite the presence of talented women, it still feels overwhelmingly like Dudeville.
Zzzzz
Good call moving Bates up your BSA predictions (I thought you were crazy at first!) although the correlation to Oscar stat is interesting. Either way, never underestimate a late-release Eastwood pic.
Edwin: ...and maybe Bale...
That's a big get for Adam Sandler. His Oscar nomination could happen, people!
I'm surprised they ignored THE TWO POPES, which I assumed was a very NBR pick.
I was sceptical about Kathy Bates' nomination chances, but I'll definitely need to see RICHARD JEWELL now.
And I assume WAVES and UNCUT GEMS are on the Top 10 list because they *really* liked them, and not because they don't realise they're Independent Films? So anything can go on the Top 10 list but only indie films on the Indie list?
It would be nice to see a "get" for Annette Bening given that, well, she needs it. But if NBR wasn't interested I'm not sure who will be.
It looks like Bombshell, The Two Popes. Joker. Little Women and Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood are the major MIAs.
The NBR has always loved Clint Eastwood movies and it shows. I'm still sceptical about Bates and Hausser Oscar chances, but this will get them into the "serious realm" of the Oscar talk for sure.
Don't-underestimate-Clint-Eastwood. Don't.
eeew
Funny that in such a wildly competitive best actor year, the outcome is - yep Adam Sandler. Lol. Good for him.
And yeah the NBR having always loved Clint Eastwood and WB.
Both of the actress categories this year are in flux at the moment. Pick a lane Kathy Bates and stick to it. You have a great shot of being nominated but don't confuse voters on where to place you.
Still rooting for Mary Kay Place such a consistent beautiful great actress at the very top of her game (l’ll Probably be crushed again but after Close’s inexplicable lost last year nothing can make me shocked about the ridiculousness of the Academy... (sight!...))
Kathy Bates - I masturbated twice.
How can Bates be lead? The movie is called Richard Jewell.
If anytink, the NBR juz cemented The Irishman, Reneee n Pitt as the frontrunners n threw a much needed lifeline to Sandler (who muz likely gonna win Indie Spirits, but tt will hav no bearing on Oscars, but still) n Bates.
I juz wonder did they not see Bombshell, Little Women, Two Popes or Honeyland?? Or they r only interested in dudes movies??
Bates is going all the way. Perennial of my heart is at long last getting that fourth nomination.
To be fair to NBR, if you compare to the BFCA they’re more critical, bonafides be damned. Both have swag and swanky events, one group just chooses to be individuals and not solely predictors.
On movie related, but not oscar focused articles and threads that I stumble upon lately, whenever Florence Pugh comes up it's all raves about her as an actress and this performance, that performance. We'll see with all the critics, but going by mood she's a contender for actually winning.
How much more a lead is Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs Of New York than Hanks is in A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood? Hanks is more a lead than Hopkins is in The Silence Of The Lambs.
If he didn't have two Oscars he'd win. There's no way he doesn't get nominated. He's so good I got annoyed hearing the real Mr. Rodgers at the end.