Oscar Chart Updates: Are the critical leaders in "Supporting" Oscar bound or not?
Wednesday, December 23, 2020 at 10:00PM by Nathaniel R
Is there a stranger 'big eight' Oscar category situation this year than the Supporting categories? Both of them appear to have a weird dearth of mainstream contenders. Meanwhile the critics awards or "precursors" have (thus far) been laser-focused on upping the Oscar viability of just two (or three if we're being generous) arguably non-traditional options in those categories: Maria Bakalova's comic improv genius in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Paul Raci's weary mentor in the hard-edged indie Sound of Metal, and Youn Yuh-Jung's spirited grandmother in Minari.
Which brings up the natural but loaded question of what part critics do or don't / should or shouldn't play in the televised awards races. There are no doubt complicated reasons why critics all across the nation vote so uniformly in some years but we'd argue that it's never from a lack of good options as hundreds of movies starring plentiful gifted actors come out each year...
If we believe that film critics vote only with their hearts we're being generous and also ridiculously naive. Film critics are people, too, and vote for all sorts of complicated reasons (just like regular people in, you know, elections). If we believe that film critics vote only to "influence" or make statements we're being cynical and also reductive. The answer is a complex mix of both plus dozens of other intangibles like a film or performer's profile, how available certain films have been, desire to have certain performers and films represented at awards dinners, scoring points for breadth of taste, genuine passionate responses, personal triggers, and definitely compromises made when the votes are visibly not going their preferred way, and you have to pick between options you don't much care about.
But IF this year's critical boosts thus far are meant in service of actually boosting Oscar chances there are weaknesses to the tactic. Take Paul Raci in Sound of Metal and to a lesser extent Youn Yuh-jung in Minari (who appears to be running second to Bakalova in critic's hearts). Prizes for those performances are easy to defend (both actors are marvelous) and the roles themselves are not very different from the stock roles that Oscar loves in those categories: mentors, grandmothers. But neither actor is famous in the US and Youn has the additional problem of giving a subtitled performance (which have historically had trouble at the Oscars, especially in the supporting categories). If these honors are intended to boost their Oscar futures, the failure of critics to really signal boost the films that house them and the leading stars they support makes the signal boost weak. Supporting nominations for non-famous actors generally only happen if the film itself is a strong player or they have the help of a strong leading player. But so far critics have weirdly ignored the brilliant Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (the film's best shot at Oscar glory... on paper) and have not heartily embraced the lovely Minari. Exceptions do happen of course. Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom is a good example; she received a deserved nomination despite her then lack of fame and absolutely no support from heat in other categories to keep her in the discussion.
Raci's and Youn's films would make worthy Best Picture contenders but they have significant obstacles to mainstream Oscar love in that they're more gritty and difficult (Sound of Metal) or more tender and gentle and subtitled (Minari) than Oscar voters naturally steer towards each year. How far can Raci get without attention paid to Riz Ahmed or Youn get without love for the leading man Steven Yeun? We'd guess not far but we hopefully to be proven wrong in multiple ways.
Maria Bakalova is another matter entirely. The Golden Globes have classified her as a leading lady in Borat making her an extremely likely Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical nominee. But the Globes have always been friendlier to atypical contenders and not just because they have an entire "comedy" category to fill (they often finds way to fill that with dramatic leaning work, anyway).
Riz and Raci in "Sound of Metal"
As atypical as Bakalova, Raci, and Youn would be in their categories as nominees they all might have stronger shots than they would in a normal year given that so far both of the Supporting categories feel like a weird mix of obvious contenders that have proved divisive (Glenn Close and anyone involved in Mank) or 'assumed gets' that people might not be as excited about as pundits assumed. For instance, is anyone really going to be excited about the sloggy Supernova, Stanley Tucci's category-fraudulent "supporting" bid? (For the record the film's entire plot revolves around him and he's almost never offscreen). And why is there so little talk about Oscar-winner Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman? With Burstyn it might be because the conversation will be happening next month when the film begins streaming or, more troubling, it could be because her screen time is scant and she doesn't get her big juicy monologue until very late in the film.
Check out the charts and report back. What'cha think?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Reader Comments (38)
As far as Pieces of a Woman goes? There's also Shia to grapple with, unfortunately justifying a HUGE case of sweaty collars.
Nat I believe you have nailed the Best Supporting Actress quintet precisely. Freeze it there. I think you are so right about both Supporting categories. It is a free for all, and yet I agree with you about Glenn Close. Geraldine Page won on her 8th nomination, Paul Newman on his 7th (acting( nomination 8th if you count his nod for Best Picture. Peter O'Toole lost on his 8th nod, but had an Honorary Oscar by then. Amy Adams, cheer up!
Volvagia -- i doubt Shia's problems will cause problems for Vanessa or Ellen. He's always been a loose cannon but perhaps it will get in the way of people wanting to discuss the film (which will be a problem)
I loved loved Sound of Metal. The second it was over I looked up Paul Raci and thought “in a just world he’d be nominated.” So happy to be pleasantly surprised that he’s picking up steam.
I can see Bakalova (hilarious) hitting everywhere except Oscar. She’ll be that rare case of making all the precursors but slipping by Oscar. The film and genre are just too unconventional to recognize in acting categories methinks.
Weren’t we all scratching our heads at one point when there was Oscar talk for Melissa McCarthy’s comic turn in Bridesmaids? I think Bakalova is definitely possible.
I'm rooting for Maria Bakalova for Best Supporting Actress. She was a joy to watch.
I'm rooting for Bakalova in leading actress, where she belongs.
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) makes me think of Tiffany Haddish(Girls Trip).
Rafaello -- yeah that occurred to me too. The question is if she's a McCarthy or a Haddish.
I do bot get Seyfried nor Dance for Any kind of nomination/ Both were forgettable\\
performances IMO
I think your best supporting actress lineup is spot on except I’d replace Close with Youn Yuh-Jung for Minari. I’m just really struggling to see Close making it and Minari, I think, will be well-loved. It’s a lose-lose for Close - does everyone really want to see her lose again, and a bigger question is do people actually want to see her win for this?
And I have no idea about supporting actor. That’s a head scratcher. I do have a feeling that Strathairn will be in the final five though. He’s an actor’s actor, a previous nominee, and in the best picture frontrunner.
I'd be elated if all three of snagged nominations. Bakalova and Raci are legit great and Youn was wonderful in 2010's The Housemaid and this year's Beasts Clawing at Straw. Two additional options that could use a "signal boost": Caleb Landry Jones in The Outpost, a film that came and went with little fanfare, and Candace Bergen in Let Them All Talk, a delightful comedic role with an undercurrent of pathos that plays beautifully with her star persona.
I'm skeptical of a few of your picks. Aside from Amanda Seyfried, who's earned the attention, Mank seems to have fizzled with critics and the public at large. Charles Dance is an interesting choice and certainly not bad but he didn't leave a strong enough impression on me. Ditto Trial of the Chicago 7. On the other side, as much as Ellen Burstyn and Glenn Close deserve a victory lap, the buzz on those films is mixed at best. A lot of the Pieces of a Woman reviews indicate that Vanessa Kirby is the standout in an otherwise mediocre film.
Nobody is talking about Lance Henriksen. According to the imdb, his film Falling (first directing gig for Viggo Mortensen) opens in February, and he appears to be superb as Mortensen's father. I'm going to watch the film over Xmas, and see for myself..
Does anyone else think MA RAINEY is turning into the biggest Netflix contender this year? It got great reviews and is popular with audiences, curious to see Chadwick's last role.
It's also the film that's expected to win Best Actor - which often makes it a solid contender for nominations across the board. That could benefit both Glynn Turman (a surprise LAFCA winner) and director George C Wolfe.
@BVR, I'd say there was a lot of talk from critics and fans that McCarthy deserved a nomination, but that it wasn't clear she would get one based on past history. With Bakalova, I really don't think THAT many people were THAT impressed. I sure wasn't. I was all in for McCarthy, but I'll roll my eyes if BORAT gets any recognition. BRIDESMAIDS, like the first BORAT, was a phenomenon. This new one has a few people loving it (like, shockingly, A.O. Scott) but far more people are responding to it with a shrug. If Bakalova gets in, it will only be because it's a weak year. I think the Haddish comparison is apt. In fact, I've heard less buzz on my Facebook/Twitter feeds for Bakalova than I did for Haddish. Then again, none of my social media friends are Academy voters.
Marcos -- i've seen the film. i suppose i should add him to longshots.
I'm looking forward to watching The Mauritanian on Christmas Day and seeing if it looks like Jodie will figure into the race.
@ Steve G - There are also a lot of people hating on Ma Rainey, so I wouldn't be surprised if it has an Oscar fate like either The Color Purple (many nods, no wins) or Joker (many nods, a couple of wins).
I'm hopeful that Sound of Metal may be the gritty indie the Academy gets behind. Ahmed is regularly showing up as a runner up, and considering Boseman and Hopkins are so dominant in that race, those notices matter. I hope enough Raci love will get voters to watch the screener, because that's the real battle.
I get that Bakalova is possible, but I'm not buying it. Are Oscar voters going to love that film? A Screenplay win for the first still doesn't sell me, but it's a long season. Even with Mank's love dwindling, Seyfried feels like the logical winner to me, unless we get a surprise nominee that suddenly dominates. In Supporting Actor, I feel like that could be Kaluuya or Tucci.
Bakalova for dummies, please. Is it the Giuliani interview? Please explain because I don't get it.
I hope Dominique Fishback has a good role in the Fred Hampton film. I'm predicting her alongside Bakalova, Colman, Seyfried and Youn for now. I can't see many other viable contenders for now, skeptical of Close for her film, I don't think Burstyn will make it for hers and Zengel's film seems to have made little impression
Supporting Actor seems wide open but i'm going with Baron Cohen, Dance, Kaluuya, Odom and Raci for now
I am really objective - trust me - that any outcome that doesn't end with Bakalova winning BAFTA/SAG/GG/Satellite/Oscar could be considered a travesty, in years to come. Wether we like the movie, or not. How many times do we see a young performer risk the whole career in such a death-defying (literally, remember, SBC had to wear bulletproof jacket, something Bakalova didn't have) performance?
The "I have a baby inside me" scene is already legendary, but my fave is still her speech to the republican women, I was laughing to tears... and that lady at the end "someone call her an Uber"... perfect punchline.
Ellen Bursytn could rally once the film opens,I don' think Foster will happen but it would be great if she did,Raci and Ahmed both make it or neither do.
Colman can't win again,Seyfried's film is not loved and Close hass the film she's in letting her down,I was actually surprised how BIG she doesn't go but then Amy s doing all the BIG stuff.
I’m surprised to see that Candice Bergen isn’t even listed. I don’t think she’ll make it all the way, but I do think right now she’s in the top 10-15. She got good reviews, is in a film the academy will see because of Meryl, and she’s gotten some nice press too.
It seems premature to call Odom a lock. Your other three locks are McDormand, Hopkins, and Boseman in Ma Rainey. It would be shocking if any of them weren't nominated. It wouldn't be shocking if Odom weren't nominated. The Supporting Actor category is all over the place.
Joe G -- You're totally right. I can't believe i forgot her in the updates. Adjusted.
Jules -- well, the weakest of those four yes. But given that it's all over the place and it's arguably a leading role and he's having a great year and they'll love the film it's hard for me to see him missing because so few supporting actors feel secure. He might be way way way out front.
My top supporting actors 2020 are:
Albrecht Schuh in Berlin Alexanderplatz
Sam Spruell in Mangrove
Paul Raci in Sound of metal
Malachi Kirby in Mangrove
Peter Saarsgard in Mr.Jones
And actresses:
Olivia Colman in Father
Glenn Close in Hillbilly elegy
Amanda Seyfried in Mank
Eve Hewson in Tesla
Letitia Wright in Mangrove
I wonder if Mangrove is eligible? Variety seems to be pondering about it too... The Small axe films were made for TV, but had the premiere at the movies...
I really don't get the Maria Bakalova love, and hope it will crash and burn as far as awards go. Everything about the Borat movie was a mess for me, it just does too much. Maybe people are on board with the intention of the movie (and making a fool out of Giuliani) and confuse it with actually thinking it is good.
Kris --- I think people are just talking about this to have something to talk about. There is no way the Academy will approve Oscar eligibility for Small Axe. It's clearly against their even fairly lax rules this year which states that as long as a film intended to be a theatrical feature it will be eligible. That was never the intent with the 5 Small Axe movies and it's easily proven even from the director's own mouth (he calls them films and a couple of them had good festival runs but the intent was always that they be aired on TV.)
I adore Charles Dance, woefully underutilized and under-recognized!
JF - I adore Dance as well but it would be sad if he took a slot for Mank when there are so many much more deserving candidates out there. Same actually goes for Boseman in Da Five Bloods. This is by far the most competitive category this year with a plethora of wonderful choices. When this is the case the Academy often makes some rather wonky choices. Hopefully that does not happen this year.
Thanks, N! I figured that too after reading the interview with the director in RS, but thought Variety should know better and not bring it up like that. Not that keen on Lovers rock, but Mangrove is really good and I guess that made me wish there is base to the allegation :) Both of thes 2 first ones got the "Cannes" sign too.
Regardless, some really good acting there in a fullsize film.
Yay- glad you added Bergen!!
Lesley Manville had a great supporting role as the villain in LET HIM GO.
Foster is listed as 3 nominations/1 win on the chart. She has 4 nominations! Never forget that teenage TAXI DRIVER nom.
I wouldn’t count Saoirse out. If her and Kate decide to campaign hard (whatever a campaign looks like in Covid), Saoirse could find her way in.
In a year like this one, so atypical with a wider elegibility window, i think critics awards will be not that crucial for the race (and to be fair they haven't been for a while, just ask Willem Dafoe, Ethan Hawke, Laurie Metcalf or Lupita Nyong'o). Of course movies like First cow or Never, rarely, sometimes, always got a huge boost winning early awards,but the distribuitors will have to know how to keep the momentum until February and not getting lost in the shuffle
@ Gigi Foster Good catch! Jodie is listed as 3 nominations/1 win on the chart. She has 4 nominations! Never forget that teenage TAXI DRIVER nom.
But don’t forget she has TWO WINS, not one.
I know Charles Dance is a veteran actor for recognition, but what has done in Mank to deserve that nom?
Alan Alda has the trial scenes in The Aviator
Hal Holbrook has the monologue with Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild
Ruby Dee has the slap in American Gangster
Kathy Bates has the crying on cameras moment in Richard Jewell
Laura Dern has the motherly moment in Wild
Even Pelphrey had the brother-brother confrontation scene.