Emmy Watch: What will be up for Drama Series?
Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:00PM
by Abe Fried-Tanzer
The current state of world affairs is undoubtedly going to have an effect on the movie year and the ensuing awards, with new streaming eligibility considerations announced for the Golden Globes. The Emmy Awards, on the other hand, won’t be affected to the same degree. While the nominations announcement has already been pushed back two weeks and how, when, and where trophies will be handed out needs to be figured out, the actual content that will be rewarded has, for the most part, already been seen. While a few shows that aren’t major category players these days – like Grey’s Anatomy, The Walking Dead, and The Flash – won’t be able to finish filming their seasons, and the fourth season of Fargo will no longer premiere this spring, almost everything else aired as planned.
The most interesting Emmy category this year is one of the top races: Best Drama Series. In an unprecedented case created in part by the Emmy eligibility window, there are eleven (!!!) programs nominated for their most recent seasons vying for a repeat nomination, and that doesn’t even take into account any new shows for the seven available slots…
To be considered for the upcoming Emmys, a show needs to have aired between June 1st, 2019 and May 31st, 2020. Most series, at least up until recently, would premiere around the same time each year, in September or January, making them consistent contenders. That wasn’t always the case with premium cable like HBO. Streamers like Netflix have since completely upended any sense of consistency. As a result, if, say, even just thirteen months pass between the end of one season and the start of another, a show might end up skipping an Emmy ceremony. I remember this happening in 2001-2002, my first year paying attention to all things awards. The Sopranos aired its third season from March through May in 2001, and then season four didn’t start until September 2002. That opened up some room in the Emmy lineup, making way for freshman series like Six Feet Under (which actually aired its first two seasons within one window, from June through August 2001 and then again in March 2002) and 24.
That brings up to our complicated current situation. To tackle this year’s top possibilities, it’s helpful to look at a grid of the last four years of nominees.
THE PAST FOUR YEARS
with Game of Thrones out of the way, something else can finally win big
In 2016-2017, the end of Downton Abbey and the absence of Game of Thrones should have opened up two slots. Instead, a whopping five new freshman series joined just two returning contenders. Those other two shows, Better Call Saul and House of Cards, then took the 2017-2018 season off, making room for Game of Thrones and for the final season of The Americans. And then last season, four of those five new 2016-2017 entrants (all except for This Is Us) opted not to go up against juggernaut and eventual winner Game of Thrones, in its final season. That made room for Better Call Saul to rejoin the lineup and invited three new freshmen and two sophomore series.
2019/2020 Season
That brings us to this season. Game of Thrones is done. Of last year’s lineup, the only other nominee not back is Bodyguard, which has yet to announce a premiere date for its second iteration. Those four series not mentioned last season are all back in contention, which brings the number of shows seeking another “consecutive” bid to ten. But that’s not all. Big Little Lies was considered a limited series when it swept the Emmy races back in 2016-2017, but its second season is eligible in the regular "drama series" category. It’s also one of the only shows that merited both Golden Globe and SAG bids, which adds another bit of precursor complication.
Since those two awards bodies hand out their prizes at the end of the calendar year, the shows in contention don’t always line up. The second season of Killing Eve earned a top Globe bid, while the third, premiering in April, will vie for the Emmys. Ozark also just dropped its third season, so after a major SAG showing in 2018, it sat out the 2019 awards altogether. As a result, the only series to join Big Little Lies in the top Globe and SAG races was The Crown, featuring an all-new cast that won the ensemble prize from SAG.
So where does that leave us? Many prognosticators believe that Succession is the frontrunner, but I’m not so sure. It took home a writing award last year but didn’t manage any acting bids for season one, and even though it scored both Best TV Series – Drama award and best actor for Brian Cox at the Golden Globes for season two, it didn’t get any recognition at the SAG Awards. Globe voters have forgotten all about The Handmaid’s Tale, Stranger Things, and This Is Us, but they still earned accolades from SAG, even if two-time winner This Is Us was dropped from the ensemble race, which has many believing it won’t earn a bid despite its fourth season being the strongest yet. It’s hard to imagine that The Handmaid’s Tale, which scored eleven bids last year for its “hanging episodes” aired in June 2019 from season two, would be left off, or that Westworld, which is airing right now, wouldn’t merit the attention of voters. I also believe people are underestimating Killing Eve, which earned a boatload of nominations last year and is the only series yet to premiere, with its premiere moved up two weeks to April 12th.
NEWBIES?
Lastly, we haven’t covered new series. The Morning Show is the only one to earn a mention from the Globes, and even though star Jennifer Aniston, one of three nominated performers, triumphed with SAG, the ensemble wasn’t in contention. The Outsider and The Mandalorian have some buzz. And there are three new streaming services still set to debut, which could bring a whole wave of contenders we haven’t even considered yet.
It’s worth revisiting closer to the July 28th nominations announcement, but for now, it may just be that the likeliest contenders are all returning series, like in 2017-2018, with a potential lineup maybe looking like so:
PREDICTION
- Better Call Saul
- The Crown
- Killing Eve
- Ozark
- Succession
- This Is Us
- Westworld
What shows do you think have the best shot at Best Drama Series this year?
Over the next few weeks, we’ll be covering more Emmy categories as we spend altogether too much time at home watching TV!
Reader Comments (17)
Great write up, Abe! The Emmys have gotten considerably more interesting and less predictable since they've been opening up the program categories to seven nominees, and as television has become less restricted to seasons.
Going into the year, I would have predicted Succession to win the Drama Series Emmy this year. Not only was Season Two highly acclaimed and viewed, but Season Three was scheduled to be airing during Emmy voting, giving the show a boost during a critical promotional time. But now Season Three's production has been shut down, meaning its premiere will likely be pushed...
I agree with your nominees at the moment, baring any surprise entrants from either an established platform or one of the yet to premiere platforms: HBOMAX or Peacock. Better Call Saul, Killing Eve, Ozark and Westworld all benefit from airing close to or during the nomination period. Eve is a bit of question, as the buzz seems to be Season Two was a bit of a letdown from Season One. If Season Three isn't stellar, it could sink its chances. Similarly, if Westworld Season Three doesn't stick its landing, it may kill its chances to win.
My gut tells me The Crown would be the favorite to win (prestige plus overdue after not winning in its first two years,) but Netflix will need to pull out a good campaign to remind voters...
That's the most interesting part of this year's Emmys for me. With FYC events cancelled under COVID guidelines, platforms need to be creative in their campaigns while balancing the severity of world events. If anyone campaigns too hard for an Emmy, will it backfire, looking like its in bad taste given world events?
These predictions feel spot on.
I think it will be interesting to see if Emmy voters shake things up here. It will be very easy for them not to. However, I think there are a few things happening:
Safe
The Crown
Succession
These feel like returners. They have the buzz, the acclaim, and voters seem to love these shows.
Likely
This is Us
Ozark
Pose
I wouldn't downplay Pose. It proved, with Porter's win last year, that it's a well liked shot. It also had a strong second season. It also diversifies the Emmys and I suspect will get some passionate votes. Ozark has Netflix pushing it and has been well received. I think This is Us will stick around - it's really NBC's only contender, and it allows the Emmys to honor network television.
Maybe
Westworld
Better Call Saul
The Morning Show
Big Little Lies
Better Call Saul will probably make it in. It's the testosterone show among these, but I don't know that it is as loved. Sure, it has racked up a ton of nominations, but it seems like it could easily fade away. Big Little Lies is fairly strong. What hurts it most is that season 2 wasn't as good and the editing drama, but its second season was better than most series. Apple has money and Jennifer Aniston, Carrell, and Crudup feel pretty safe. I think it's a big contender.
Unlikely
Killing Eve
I say this without seeing its third season, but its nomination haul felt very Alias to me. It has a solid season 1 showing, takes a bigger haul during season 2, but falters in sesaon 3 a bit. Killing Eve is a classic "buzz" show something voters honor with a few nominations, but never for too many years in a row.
I second THIS IS US getting a nom for network love. A network show hasn’t won this category since 24.
I know it would be weird for THIS IS US to win so late in its run but i wonder if people are going to want a series that's more comforting than something like SUCCESSION (as brilliant as it is) for prizes this year given how rough tthings are.
i dont think BIG LITTLE LIES is going to do well. it aired too long ago and people were largely disappointed.
What I keep remembering about both KILLING EVE and WESTWORLD is that the second seasons weren't as beloved when they aired, but their Emmy hauls - including directing and writing bids for the former and a bid for Ed Harris for the latter - suggest that voters still liked them a lot. Airing their third seasons right now feels like a good opportunity for them to be nominated again.
Regarding THIS IS US, the repeat bids for star Milo Ventimiglia give me confidence that Emmy voters like it, though I really wish they'd honor some of the other great supporting cast members.
THE HANDMAID'S TALE feels like a sure nominee.
Sure, it aired last June and it's the least well-received of the three seasons, but it got those 11 noms for 3 orphaned episodes while season 3 was airing. Craft categories will lift it up as well as acting noms (I wouldn't be surprised if it gets 2 supporting actresses, 2 supporting actors, plus Moss and guest actors).
Experience is that it takes a few meh years for voters to lose interest in a show, even if it recovers sometimes it's too late for voters to be hooked again. The Good Wife, Homeland (it took several good years and an empty slate to get back in), Boardwalk Empire, etc. Despite the strong year I feel This Is Us misses out for the reasons above, SAG (group which would easily like it the most) miss was the biggest red alert.
Killing Eve needs to do well and certainly recover to not suffer the same fate as above. Two good but disappointing seasons would be enough to kick it out in a crowded field.
I thought the same for Big Little Lies but the pedigree and names attached might just be enough.
Last thing is people are underestimating Stranger Things. A popular choice liked by the industry. It'll probably have its worst year yet at the Emmys but can still manage a nomination in the big category.
That graph of eligible or not titles is dreadful and unprofessional.
Interesting to see what'll happen with Big Little Lies. The first two episodes of season 2 where great but things quickly went south thereafter. I think Streep in BSA is the only lock.
I loved the new season of This Is Us but sadly most people aren't predicting it to be nominated anymore.
Succession
The Crown
Better Call Saul
Ozark
The Handmaid's Tale
Westworld
The Morning Show
Maybe:
Big Little Lies
Stranger Things
Killing Eve
Pose
This Is Us
First off, for me there are certain series I know are not for me, even from just watching the ad campaign before the show premieres: Succession, Better Call Saul (never liked his character during Breaking Bad), The Morning Show, This Is Us (almost never watch network TV). The Crown is a possibility, although Season 3 I thought was weak compared to Seasons 1 and 2. Ozark bored me; it seemed yet another show about people stealing. I'm always up for The Handmaid's Tale to win; no other show in recent memory had such a strong plot, strong acting and wonderfully written scripts.
Stranger Things was horror, which I don't watch. Killing Eve is deliciously good, both female leads are incredible. Big Little Lies seems years ago now, but it was nonetheless wonderful. Pose would be my favorite to win; Billy Porter is very hot these days, and I love how the show showcases the downtrodden and gives all its characters interesting backstories.
As usual, just my 2 cents...
Please Emmy, just make Stranger Things happen again. The show has just been getting better season after season. I do not understand why some people take it for granted.
@Anyone, cause the series suck? It becomes repetitive and close to boredom. Finally the precursors did hear right to snub Stranger Things (Except SAG, but again, SAG is SAG in rancid way).
Succession, Succession, Succession. With what we are living through, Succession really strikes a chord with me. I re-watched Chernobyl - the Russians are beginning to look competent compared to what I'm seeing on the news these days.
@leon - what are you talking about? Each season is practicly a different era, the cinematography and art direction are not repetitive at all, the storyline let its characters grow as David Harbour's and it is not afraid to kill darling -or hot- characters. You mean it is repetitive because it is always the same bad guy? Open a little bit your eyes.
@Anyway, the characters didn't grow. Finn Wolfhand and other actors instead being relatable characters had become characters of annonying children, the photography is so redundant and the story is now a copycat of better prospects. If open a little bit your eyes is endind as stereotypical geek, no thanks. At least the real world has finally discovered the fraud of the series.
Keep with your boys token play.
MY BRILLIANT FRIEND...The best thing on HBO