Final Oscar Nom Predix Pt 2: Acting, International, Docs, Shorts, etc...
Saturday, March 13, 2021 at 12:12PM Previously: Best Picture and Visuals
We really wish we'd started these final predictions earlier but there is no end to the overthinking one can do -- is there? -- when races are tight. So perhaps it's for the best that we just have to do this and commit. For instance, we've already changed one prediction in both Cinematography (out: Chicago 7, in: Judas) & Sound (out: Tenet, in: Nomadland) to riskier options since last night -- which is probably foolish but we're living recklessly! Okay, on to complete the final predictions (index of all of them here) with discussions of the acting categories, short categories, documentary, animated, and international features after the jump...
Night of Kings
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
While the precursors were weirdly repetitive in a way they usually aren't in this category with unexpected players Guatemala's La Llorona and France's Two of Us and the ineglible Bacurau from Brazil popping up repeatedly ... neither of the former two felt like slam dunks when they were selected for submission. We only feel confident and would only be shocked if the following two pictures are left out...
- ANOTHER ROUND (Denmark)
- QUO VADIS AIDA? (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
The former has mainstream popularity, the EFA win and well loved men behind and in front of the camera and the latter has the right amount of heft and people wanting it to win after they screen it. From there it gets much trickier and really any combo of three more from the 15 finalists will end up believable with the benefit of hindsight on Monday. Czech Republic's Charlatan is from a previous nominee, Norway's Hope is emotionally potent and stars a beloved actor, Taiwan's A Sun is a bit divisive but Oscar does like a family epic, Tunisia's The Man Who Sold His Skin and Iran's Sun Children have their fans. But we're going to predict...
- COLLECTIVE (Romania)
- DEAR COMRADES! (Russia)
- NIGHT OF KINGS (Ivory Coast)
alt. Two of Us (France), I'm Not Here (Mexico), La Llorona (Guatemala)
It's a bit of a risk because Two of Us has so much precursor support and I'm Not Here has big names promoting it and a DGA nomination for first feature. But you have to make predictions and something risky is bound to come up.
Just about the only movies that would surprise us as nominees in this category are Chile's The Mole Agent (lovely but it's tough to think that two docs would be able to land nods and Collective has more buzz), and Hong Kong's Better Days because it's so adolescence-oriented (not an Oscar draw) and Oscar historically has trouble with Asian cinema.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
I like to pair this with Best International Feature since it's usually very international and the other two shorts categories pair so emphatically with a feature category. You can see the review article here. The predictions
- Bittu (India)
- Feeling Through (US)
- The Human Voice (Spain)
- Kicksled Choir (Norway)
- Two Distant Strangers (US)
alt. the other finalists... Da Yie (Ghana), The Van (Albania), White Eye (Israel), The Present (Palestine/UK), The Letter Room (US).
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- SOUL (lock)
- WOLFWALKERS (lock)
- SHAUN THE SHEEP FARMAGEDDON (probably)
- OVER THE MOON (maybe)
- ONWARD (maybe)
alt. Croods New Age, Calamity
Precursors have been laser-focused on the CG American studio productions and shown zero curiosity about the art-form overseas... and not just this year. That's probably why Oscar's final nominee list each year which generally includes 1 or 2 international titles, always feel marginally surprising even when it shouldn't. But this year, beyond Wolfwalkers, opinion hasn't coalesced around any other non US title. We think the UK's Shaun the Sheep will definitely happen, though, given Oscar's (earned) love of Aardman but otherwise we're going with the typical american slate though among them only Soul feels truly invulnerable. It's easy to picture Onward or Over the Moon falling to The Croods New Age or an unexpected foreign title.
If Onward makes it it will be the first time Pixar has managed two simultaneous nods in the category.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
- If Anything Happens I Love You (lock)
- Kapaemahu (maybe?)
- Opera (maybe?)
- Snail and the Whale (maybe?)
- Yes People (really hope so!)
alt. the other finalists... Out, To Gerard, Traces, Genius Loci, Burrow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
A very competitive category this year and so many of them feel like "oh, of course that will be nominated" and yet there can be only five.
- TIME (locked up)
- COLLECTIVE (probably)
- CRIP CAMP (probably)
- BOYS STATE (maybe)
- WELCOME TO CHECHNYA (dear cinematic gods we hope so)
alt. the other finalists which... just spitballing as to an "alternate" prediction order. Let's say... The Truffle Hunters, Dick Johnson is Dead, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher, 76 Days, MLK/FBI, The Painter and the Thief, Gunda, The Mole Agent, and Notturno
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
See the full review/prediction article
- HUNGER WARD (locked up)
- COLETTE (likely)
- A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION (probably)
- DO NO SPLIT (maybe?)
- SPEED CUBERS (dear cinematic gods, we hope so)
alt. the other finalists: Love Song for Latasha, Call Center Blues, Abortion Helpline, and the only two that would surprise us as nominees (for different reasons, neither of which relates to quality) Hysterical Girl and What Would Sophia Loren Do?
BEST ACTRESS
We've hashed this out in previous articles and though our opinion hasn't really changed -- we still think Vanessa Kirby is vulnerable -- we're no longer thinking she'll be overthrown by Hollywood legends like Sophia Loren or Michelle Pfeiffer. It's really kind of a shame that The Life Ahead didn't give Sophia Loren more to do (the role is curiously mellow, despite elements which could have made for high drama) because the industry was obviously very pro this happening (with The Life Ahead making various guild lists). As for French Exit, La Pfeiff did way more promotion than usual but the films profile remained very small -- it's not really going "wide" until April and the character is "difficult"/unsymphathetic at times which Oscar voters sometimes have problems with.
- FRANCES MCDORMAND (lock)
- CAREY MULLIGAN (lock)
- VIOLA DAVIS (lock)
- ANDRA DAY (probably)
- VANESSA KIRBY (probably)
alt. Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), and Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
BEST ACTOR
We wished Gary Oldman, who we believe to be running in fourth place, was vulnerable. That's not because he isn't good (he is) but just because some of the less likely competitors are stronger. But frankly we don't see it. Even if Mank underperforms, he's probably in. The fifth slot race remains tight, though. Originally it felt like it was a fight between Delroy Lindo, and Kingsley Ben-Adir.... then we had dreams of a surprise showing by the super-worthy Mads Mikkelsen... and Ben Affleck kept holding on as an artistic comeback story. But lately it's apparent that Minari is a rock solid Best Picture player and the love is still rising so we're betting on Steven Yeun even though it's not really a typical Oscar role (very subtle compared to what they like in this category) and even though Oscar has not been kind to Asian performers. If nominated Yeun will be the first Asian-American male actor ever nominated; the only other Asian-Americans nominated for acting are sisters Meg and Jennifer Tilly (who are bi-racial). The rest of the scant few Asian acting nominees have been from the UK or various Asian countries.
- CHADWICK BOSEMAN (lock)
- ANTHONY HOPKINS (lock)
- RIZ AHMED (lock)
- GARY OLMAN (probably)
- STEVEN YEUN (maybe)
alt. Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Ben Affleck (The Way Back)... if there is a shock, though, we think it'll be Mads Mikkelsen turning up out of nowhere because he's sensational in his movie AND people really like the movie too.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
What a strange disappointing category this has been all year. We really thought its vague amorphous nature would result in disagreements between precursors and surprising results (which is what happened with Supporting Actress instead). Instead that amorphous nature just made a giant window for Daniel Kaluuya's leading role to take up all the oxgyen and cruise to a win. Instead the precursors were completely boring and all agreed that it should be Kaluuya, Baron Cohen, Odom Jr, and Boseman (even though he was more deservedly already being rewarded in lead and he has a tiny concept part in this movie). That left only one spot open. Jared Leto came on strong with Globe & SAG nods, Bill Murray hung around with Globe and Critics Choice nods, and David Strathairn remained a possibility despite no precursor attentino because he is a) a beloved actor who has worked with everyone and b) he is in the best picture frontrunner. But in the end we think Best Actor coattails and rising love for a Best Picture contender will actually work for good rather than evil this year and just barely push Paul Raci into the nominee circle.
- DANIEL KALUUYA (the lockiest of locks)
- SACHA BARON COHEN (lock)
- LESLIE ODOM JR (lock)
- CHADWICK BOSEMAN (probably)
- PAUL RACI (maybe)
alt. Jared Leto, David Straithairn
IF there is a total shock, we think Alan S Kim in Minari is most likely. But we're not expecting a total shock.
But it honestly remains a complete and aggravating mystery to us that Glynn Turman couldn't get any traction for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. We ENTIRELY blame the precursors for this but especially NYFCC for starting the Boseman double rolling. We love Chadwick Boseman but honoring with a leading acting statue is more than enough homage as a farewell. The televised awards followed suit. They had a chance to honor an enduring character actor in the category designed just for them, and instead they went with multiple leading roles, a double honor for a much-missed actor, and (deep sigh) Jared Leto.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
What a wild ride this competition has been. We've had two big articles about it with 100s of comments. Nothing feels certain. Let's start with the two arguable frontrunners
- GLENN CLOSE -Globe + Critics Choice + SAG noms. (Missed BAFTA and from inarguably the least popular film in the running for this category)
- MARIA BAKALOVA -Critics Choice win. SAG, and BAFTA noms. Plus many critics wins. (Appeared at the Globes but not in supporting, promoted to lead where she unexpectedly lost)
While we understand that nobody can be truly locked in a field this volatile, if either Close or Bakalova misses it has to be considered a snub. I think both of them will be there and I also think Oscar is finally going to get over their reluctance to nominate Asian actors thanks to how moving and endearing Minari is and how really excellent Youn Yuh-Jung's role and performance is. I wouldn't call her locked exactly but even if Minari underperforms I think she still has a chance.
- YOUN YUH-JUNG -Critics Choice + Spirit + SAG + BAFTA noms. Plus many critics wins (Missed Globes)
That leaves two spots open which will most likely go to
- AMANDA SEYFRIED -Globes + Critics Choice noms. No wins (Missed SAG and BAFTA)
- OLIVIA COLMAN -Critics Choice + Globe + SAG. (Missed BAFTA)
ON THE OTHER HAND...
The more I've thought about this the more vulnerable they both seem. Colman really should have been able to manage the BAFTA nod (maybe that was a jury problem though) but if one or both of them are replaced who will it be?
- HELENA ZENGEL -Globe + SAG noms. (Missed BAFTA, Critics Choice)
- ELLEN BURSTYN -Critics Choice nom. (Missed everywhere else)
- DOMINIQUE FISHBACK -BAFTA nom. (Missed everywhere else but film is new and recency bias is real)
- JODIE FOSTER - Globe win. (Missed everywhere else but film is new and recency bias is real)
Let's do process of elimination. I don't think Zengel is happening. SAG likes young actors more than any other voting body so that nomination wasn't surprising. But then she also lost "Young Performer" at Critics Choice to tiny Alan S Kim from Minari. And News of the World never totally caught on (we think it would have been different in the non-COVID times since it's such a sweeping big screen movie). Burstyn, like Sophia Loren, had goodwill going into the race. but as with Loren her movie didn't give much back. Burstyn's big scene in Pieces of a Woman is late in the movie and she surely would've caught on as a contender by now, right?
So... that leaves Dominique Fishback who only scored with BAFTA (and juried nominations dont mean much in relation to a group vote of thousands of people) and Jodie Foster from Mauritanian. Fishback seems possible due to the very Supporting Actress trope kind of role it is and how recent it is. But on the other hand it is kind of a small role and coattails from Kaluuya haven't helped her yet, really. Foster is a Hollywood legend but are enough people watching their screeners? And would she have factored in AT ALL if the Globes hadn't surprised her with the win? Maybe not but they did. And the BAFTA nods in general categories (non-juried) and Fosters win at the AARP "movies for grownups" awards (over Youn, Close, Burstyn, and Bergen) suggests that people are watching it. And that maybe Foster has caught a good portion of the 'Hollywood Legend Comeback!' votes that awards strategists for Burstyn, Loren, and Pfeiffer were banking would come their way this season.
Throwing caution to the wind I'm predicting that Seyfriend, who we once long ago thought would win, will miss and guessing like so
- BAKALOVA
- CLOSE
- COLMAN
- FOSTER
- YOUN
alt. Seyfried (we love her so this is sad), Fishback.
OH AND WHOOPS. FORGOT THIS YESTERDAY
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The CDG nominations suggest that Ammonite is a long shot but we're going to guess it anyway for bragging rights in case it does. We tried out so many combos and nothing felt exactly right. One Night in Miami didn't feel "Most Costumes" enough. Judas and the Black Messiah is coming from an era that Oscar isn't obsessed with in that category, News of the World didn't nab a CDG nomination. We're rooting for Promising Young Woman but the truth is that contemporary films are always major longshots in this category. That's wrong but that's the way it is!
- MA RAINEY (lock)
- EMMA (lock)
- MANK (probably)
- MULAN (maybe?)
- AMMONITE (no guts no glory)
alt. One Night in Miami, Jingle Jangle, Promising Young Woman
Reader Comments (59)
no predictions for Costume Design? ;)
I really need Sigourney Weaver to be the co presenter on Oscar nomination morning and go "Hold on to your hats" again. She knew she would be giving out surprising news. I'm willing to bet several surprises happen Monday morning.
Probably wishful thinking, but I’m gonna go ahead and say Oldman DOES get left out. It seems like in every recent year there’s been at least one safe bet who misses out on nomination morning, and he’s a lot less safe than others have been. Plus as you said, buzz for Mank is fading fast (I honestly wouldn’t even be totally shocked if Fincher were snubbed, but I’m not quite confident enough to predict that).
Maybe a bold choice, but I think Oldman gets left out in favor of either Lindo or Mikkelsen.
Olivia Colman actually DID GET the Globe nomination and the only reason she didn't get BAFTA is the stupid committee they put this year. I'd argue she's the only lock.
k -- whoops. dont know how i missed that so just added it.
Edwin -- that would be wonderful. Oldman left out for either of those two since they're both quite incredible in their movies.
Nat, i was surprised to see the omission:)
I cannot believe Bakalova seems to be on her way to Oscar nom. I didn't find her performance to be Oscar-worthy. same with Seyfried and Foster. Seyfried seems to be this year's Shailene Woodley. Foster can be this year's Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) or Annette Bening (The Report) but her movie seems to be on a roll after this GG win and BAFTA noms. in recent year only Bates, Rooney Mara and Mark Wahlberg got in with only GG mention from BFCA/GG/SAG/BAFTA precursors.
one performance that I'm really rooting for is Burstyn's.
Close isn't a sure thing but seems to be in. Colman got snubbed by London Film Critics which can also be quite telling.
Zengel seems to be the dark horse here, stronger contender than one may actually think...
this race reminds me if the Supporting Race when Sly Stallone and Mark Rylance was in the mix or Actress Race when Morton or Castle-Hughes where eventual nominees
Nathaniel : really sad about Seyfried as well. She elevated her movie every time she came on screen. I do not understand what's happening here. Reading various critiques of this performance over the past few months I have been struck by people saying she does "nothing" in the movie. Wait....what? Stealing EVERY scene you are in is indeed doing something people. Oh well. I think that SAG snub is very telling. 😥
I think the BAFTA snubs for Foster and Colman are because of the committee. They loved The Mauritanian and The Father in the non-juried categories and they LOVE Colman, so that’s really the only explanation. Same for Mulligan in lead.
And I hope you are correct about Raci. My favorite performance of the year.
Best Actress: can't argue with the prediction (although I'd like to)
Best Actor: Oldman & Yeun out, Lindo and Rahim in
Best Supporting Actress: Close out, Seyfried in
Best Supporting Actor: Odom out, Langella in (alt: Kim)
And, as I wrote elsewhere, Foster is *not* supporting in The Mauritanian, but people don't seem to care or haven't actually seen the film yet and are just rubber-stamping the category choice.
For International Feature, Hope is such a snooze! Ordinary Love was a much a better movie on a similar subject matter.
I think that Mikkelsen will be nominated.
I would love Loren, but I don't want Kirby that is also my best actress this year
News of the World is the movie you go and see with your parents or in-laws over the holidays. If you were like me, Covid prevented you from both seeing family and theater movies these past holidays. Maybe they should have held back and released it later this year.
Best Actor
Locks Hopkins,Ahmed,Boseman
Likely Oldman,Yuen wouldn't bother me if they were snubbed as good as they are but Oldman is playing a real person so he may sneak in.
Hopefully Mikkelsen seems to be peaking as a fave right at the cusp of voting
Best Actress
the 5 you predicted with a big maybe over Day but she's playing a legend,if they love HE Adams may sneak in
S/Actor
Locks Cohen,Raci,Kaluuya
Likely Murray,Odom Jr
Hopefully Rylance
S/Actress
I don't consider anyone locked up so here are pros and cons
Colman residual goodwill,she's a terrific actress and sure to repeat in future,missed Bafta,hasn't won much,It's Hopkins show
Zengel film is liked not loved,SAG always liked kids in supporting,not very showy and a little annoying.
Close film not as good as her,if the film was better she'd walk away with the Oscar,is this really what people want to say she won for,acting great with 7 losses has to mean something.
Burstyn solid in it but the killer scene is hokey but she's great in other places,Close and Foster took all the legend heat.
Seyfried Mank faded quickly and no SAG and NO Bafta but playing a real figure of Old Hollywood,if Oldmans not in I don't think she is but i'd give her this years Oscar.
Youn nice role a bit over praised,not as good as Shuzhen last year,sympathetic character.
Foster 26 years since her last with 3 snubs in between,lead/supporting,crusading lawyer with a heart right up Oscars ally plus GG win.
Bakalova I don't want to face that my least favourite performance of the year may win,Can't see Oscar going for such crudeness masquerading as comedy,I think people like it for the digs at republicans.
Cooke very strong in SOM but no-one caught on but I see a Minnie Driver situation coming,my personal dark horse pick.
Fishback excellent chemistry,killer scene reading to her lover,I real find,and Bafta liked her,late breaking film
Great takes, as always. I'm not expecting all that many surprises, and I think that your rundowns of the acting categories are spot-on. I'm predicting Lindo and Seyfried over Oldman and Foster, but those are the only differences. I'm also predicting the same doc short lineup as you.
The only startling snub that I think will happen is TIME for Best Documentary. Many would agree that it's the best if not one of the best of the year, and it seems that so many films with that distinction, like Apollo 11, Won't You Be My Neighbor, Waiting for Superman end up missing. I hope it won't be the case, but Best Documentary is so competitive this year and I don't think anything is safe.
Looking forward to your thoughts on Monday.
I don't get as upset over category fraud as Nathaniel and some others do, but the whole Kaluuya thing this year such a ridiculous categorization that I'm actively annoyed by his wins in a way I haven't been since Vikander's.
The Seyfried situation is so odd. For quite some time I thought she was the favorite to win, and now I'm thinking she's in the 5th spot and Foster might knock her out (although I think Seyfried will hold on).
I think the Documentary Feature category is the biggest question mark this cycle. Very curious to see what gets in given that I think the first two you mention are the only locks.
Rooting for Pfeiffer, Lindo, Seyfried and Raci Monday morning.
I get the hesitancy around Kirby, but she feels like the real deal. She made it past the juried round at BAFTA. If voters see her film, and they've had plenty of time to, then she's in.
I have no idea what to make of Mank. On the one hand, it seems like it's fading. On the other, it's easy to see it as the respected nomination leader that loses almost every award on Oscar night. I keep wanting to ditch Oldman, but the lack of a SAG nomination for Lindo or Mads makes me think he's pretty safe. I suspect he's getting to the Judi Dench-ish stage in his career where, as a recent winner, voters will keep inviting him back for a few more years even if there isn't that much passion for his particular performance. His body of work makes it seem like he should have 6-7 nominations.
Paul Raci is my one wish for Nomination morning.
The Mauritanian and The Father showing up in BAFTA best picture makes me think Colman and Foster are in along with Minari and Mank ladies in best picture favourites and Fishback with recency bias. I’m predicting Close and Bakalova are out.
I'm confused. Is there no longer a Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories? All I have seen is just "Best Sound" so that means Sound Editing will be a "special" award again.
Night of Kings actually didn't make the shortlist unfortunately. It's a great film regardless.
I think that Tahar Rahim (with Globe and BAFTA noms, and playing in "The Mauritanian", which is liked by the Brits) is also a possibility in 'best actor' category and he's great in this movie so it would be awesome if he was nominated!
I actually think Oldman is the lock and Ahmed is the “probably.” Like it or not, Oldman is a veteran with a respected filmography who has finally been embraced by the Academy and is starring in a film about old Hollywood — and he’s British! He checks all the boxes.
Ahmed, on the other hand, is young and unproven to many old-fashioned voters. Yes, he’s well respected to cinephiles, but I have a hard time believing that many older members of the Academy have seen most of his past films (they’re all daring and atypical), which means they might feel like they don’t owe him anything. Plus, it’s still hard to get a read on how loved Sound of Metal is amongst Oscar voters. I think he might be vulnerable.
The Globes fucked everything up with awarding Foster and if she gets in it will be all their fault. But I think it would be Glenn’s spot she takes, not Amanda’s.
@Josh, Night of the Kings is great and it did make the shortlist.
https://www.oscars.org/news/93rd-oscarsr-shortlists-nine-award-categories-announced
Predictions:
AHMED
BOSEMAN
HOPKINS
MIKKELSEN
OLDMAN
DAVIS
DAY
KIRBY
MCDORMAND
MULLIGAN
BARON COHEN
KALUUYA
LETO
ODOM JR
RACI
BAKALOVA
COLMAN
FISHBACK
FOSTER
YOUN
@ K, count me in on the "not seeing Bakalova as oscar-worthy" train. She's entertaining and plays the pathos in the script well, but there's something about her performance that always feels like she's in an SNL skit or an arrested development guest star. I always felt aware that she wasn't really Tutar. I also didn't love the film, but it's obviously catnip to voters.
On Riz Ahmed - I've very much seen him as a lock all season. He's great in his film, it's about as academy friendly as a role could be, and I think his surprise emmy win a few years back proves that he's well liked in the industry. However, it's interesting that a lot of the "anti-Asian" bias discourse hasn't come up re: his nomination prospects. HeId be the first actor of Pakistani heritage to be nominated as well as the first non-Indian South Asian actor nominated. He'd also be the first muslim actor nominated for best actor. I think he'll be nominated, but in this post-9/11 world where biases among people, especially older academy members, are quite strong, I think it's significant.
Stop saying Seyfried won't happen : remember Regina King didn't get nominations from the SAG and Baftas and still walked away with the supporting Oscar.
To me, Yeri Han was one of the best in Minari, I find it weird how everyone from that movie is talked for a nomination and she isn't.
And the actress field isn't even that strong...
As for Seyfried, I'm glad it's not happening. She just appears in the movie, that's it.
Mike’s Final Oscar Nominations Predictions
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces Of A Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
This is the category that I feel is most locked in.
BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed - Sound Of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Gary Oldman - Mank
Steven Yeun - Minari
It’s awful, but I think Delroy Lindo of Da 5 Bloods will not get in.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman - The Father
Jodie Foster - The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Youn Yuh-jung - Minari
The craziest category and toughest to predict – anything could happen. And I was really hoping for Ellen Burstyn. I am going out on a quite wobbly limb, but I believe Glenn Close gets snubbed. Deep breaths.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas And The Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night In Miami
Paul Raci - Sound of Metal
The most crowded field, with so many incredible choices.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloé Zhao - Nomadland
David Fincher - Mank
Aaron Sorkin - The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman
Sadly, I think Regina King misses.
BEST PICTURE
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial Of The Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Mank
5. One Night In Miami
6. Promising Young Woman
7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8. News Of The World
9. Judas And The Black Messiah
10. Sound of Metal
I almost picked The Father, but I think Sound of Metal is getting that last slot.
What a strange and fascinating year.
Amanda IN & Glenn OUT. Please!
@ brookesboy
Deep breaths indeed...
"Surprises" I hoping for this Monday:
Another round for Best picture and Best Original screenplay
White tiger for Best adapted screenplay
Blizzard of souls for Best original score
Painter and the thief for Best documentary (really-really loved this film!)
A sun & Man who sold his skin for Best international film
and NO Bakalova!
But really the more surprises the better!
Isn’t Ken Watanabe considered an Asian Oscar nominee for Last Samurai?
Not sure I understand why Close would be considered a snub anymore so than Colman considering they have performed identically in televised precursors. And if anything, Colman's film is far more liked and respected than Close's.
Nathaniel how dare you concede that Close is likely to win! You’ll get bullied and called names if the comments here lately are anything to go by. Not just regular names, but oh managed so fetch level of lame names. How dare you think Vivien Leigh will win for Gone With The Wind or Streetcar. You loser Meryl stans thinking she’ll really nab the trophy for Sophie’s Choice??? That’s how they sound. Any chink in Glenn’s precursor performance has been more than compensated with narrative and overdue status to make her the clear front runner. She loses again, it’s a major shock and very unlikely.
Congratulations Glenn.
Working stiff—these Oscar prognostications are torture. Let’s hang in there lol
Mark -- he's Japanese. I said Yeun would be the first Asian-American male.
Unknown -- i think what happened is the role was not foregounded enough to be a traditinal leading contender and they didn't opt for supporting (i think widely given that Youn was right there) I also think she's great in the movie but she only gets one big scene really. in some waysl. it's a classic supporting role.
With Close’s race closed and locked up for her victory, my no guts no glory is that Mads makes it.
All In - the Stacey doc- will be in.
I think The Mauritanian is the movie that will surprise with multiple nominations.
Maybe the Brits are actually finally getting sick of Olivia. Winning for The Favourite then ubiquitous in The Crown & Fleabag, etc. America just discovered her recently, so she's a lock for an Oscar nom.
Glenn Close AND a cigar!
I actually think Yuh-Jung could win this whole mad race - as no one knows whom to vote for in the end ... I don't know why ... I just got this feeling - maybe they like to prove all critics wrong..
I'm 100 % sure Seyfried will be nominated - her slow and steady star turn and incredible presence and the role is pure Oscar bait ! And so they should give her this career boost - and she will surprise us in the future ... (but I think a nod here is enough).
Coleman & Close are locked - they would be crazy if they don't !!!
Foster could be our Kathy Bates
.... okay I could really get the results now !!!! My head is spinning
Bakalova’s lack of inhibition is not award-worthy acting.
Bette Streep -- there is only one Sound category now. They got rid of Sound Editing this year.
martin - they only way i could see a Youn win is if it a) Close misses and b) voters really start thinking about performance because nobody has become the obvious "winner" ...kind of like what happened with Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton.
I had the same reaction to Youn as I had to Olivia Colman in 2018 -- how could you watch Minari and not want to vote for her to win? I hope she sneaks in - she would be such a deserving winner!
@Unknown -- agreed, re: Yeri Han! Hers is my favourite performance in a movie filled with great ones.
I'm still dumbfounded that Delroy Lindo is teetering in around sixth place. His is my favourite performance, not just in his category, but in the year as a whole. I was pleased to see him included in Richard Brody's write-up of the 30 best film performances of the century so far. It's such a towering achievement, and in a just world he would be cruising to a win instead of crossing his fingers for a nomination.
My two cents on Close: this film did NOT work for me, and neither did the vast majority of the performances in it. Close is remarkable for standing almost alone in delivering a performance that is credible and compelling. It's a testament to her skill and dependability, and I won't be angry if this is what winds up cinching her the trophy.
Close is less "credible and compelling" than "decent and okay".