With the PGA win Nomadland is probably locked up. But what to make of Best Documentary Feature?
Thursday, March 25, 2021 at 11:56AM by Nathaniel R
If Nomadland was going to show any weakness before Oscar night, now just 31 days away, it would probably have been at the Producers Guild Awards which were held last night. Sorry to its rivals (though not really because we love Nomadland) there appears to be no vulnerable spots in its golden armor. Or maybe the Producers Guild just wasn't feeling frisky about throwing curveballs this year since with the exception of the Best Documentary (which still feels wide open in terms of the Oscar win) ALL of their prizes went to frontrunners in their Oscar categories or TV shows that have already cleaned up at other awards shows or even previously at the PGA...
PGA Winners
THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURE - Nomadland
They generally pick the same winner as Oscar though there have been exceptions like 1917 over Parasite, The Big Short over Spotlight, La La Land over Moonlight, Little Miss Sunshine over The Departed
ANIMATED MOTION PICTURE - Soul
They have very similar taste as Oscar when it comes to wins. The only times they've disagreed were Wreck it Ralph over Brave and Cars over Happy Feet. And twice their winner was not actually Oscar nominated: Aventures of Tintin and The Lego Movie.
DOCUMENTARY MOTION PICTURE- My Octopus Teacher
The Producers Guild taste in this category varies from Oscars by quite a lot and they regularly have different nominees and winners. Only two of their nominees this year are also up for the Oscar: My Octopus Teacher and Time.
TELEVISED OR STREAMED MOTION PICTURE - Hamilton
COMEDY SERIES - Schitt's Creek (season 6)
DRAMA SERIES -The Crown (season 4)
LIMITED SERIES - The Queens Gambit
LIVE ENTERTAINMENT TALK SHOW - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (season 7, sixth consecutive win)
John Oliver's dominance in Live Entertainment Talk Show is pretty incredible now -- the show only lost for its first season.
COMPETITION TELEVISION - RuPaul's Drag Race (season 12, third consecutive win)
NON-FICTION TELEVISION - The Last Dance (season 1)
SPORTS PROGRAM - Defying Gravity: The Untold Story of women's Gymnastics
CHILDREN'S PROGRAM -The Power of We: A Sesame Street Special
The regular seasons of A Sesame Street often win this category.
SHORTFORM PROGRAM -Carpool Karaoke (second non-consecutive win)
Carpool Karaoke has won 3 consecutive Emmys for its three seasons and now 2 PGAs. When will people tire of James Corden driving around and singing with celebrities?
INNOVATION AWARD -BRCvr
Reader Comments (33)
It is going to be such a drag if, in the year of like the greatest crop of documentaries ever (including those not nominated), Oscar goes with this generation’s March of the Penguins. Cute yes, but my god the quality of the competitors is miles above.
I just don't get the support for John Oliver's show. I'm as progressive as they come, but his show is almost unwatchable to me. He talks so fast, with this "we all need to get out of our chairs and DO something" tone of voice, that you feel like the world is burning down around you even as you sit there wasting time watching HBO, but then he never really tells you what to do. Worry, I guess. He talks so fast you have to give the show all your attention, so forget about... I don't know... checking your email while you watch, like you can do with other similar shows, like the much better "Real Time with Bill Maher." He's essentially shaking your lapels for an hour every single weekend.
Did this win just assure Carey Mulligan Best Actress as Frances will win for producing.
I’m with Charlea here. Gonna rip my hair out if My Octopus Teacher wins over so many better, more ambitious films, to include the ones that we’re even nominated. What an unpleasant film.
I just coincidentally watched My Octopus Teacher yesterday. I'd put it in the middle of the pack. Collective and Crip Camp are much better. But it's better than The Mole Agent and a hell of a lot better than Time, which is a mess.
Nick -- awww. i enjoyed it but then i dont see a lot of docs. What did you find "unpleasant" about it?
Mark -- i doubt most voters are thinking of things like "frances gets an oscar if we vote nomadland for best picture".... i dont think the producers names are on the actual ballot
The entire Documentary category caught me way off guard when they were announced. I love a good doc and because of streaming was able to see a number of really good ones that were on the short list - none of which made the final cut! I loved All In: The Fight for Democracy, Boys State, Dick Johnson is Dead, and Welcome to Chechnya!! Not a single one got in.
Of the nominees, I watched Time and found it to have a great payoff, but getting there was a bit of a slog in my opinion. I've started Crip Camp three times and don't seem to be able to make it through. I intend to see Collective, but have no desire to see My Octopus Teacher - NO DESIRE. Since the nominations, I did see The Mole Agent and it was very endearing, but I wouldn't put it or Time above any of the four I mentioned in the first paragraph.
Oh well, in the end, I DID see some great docs - just wish the Oscars had chosen better.
As a long term Frances detractor this year I so want her to win.
I saw Nomadland on Sunday night after working one of the busiest weekends in recent memory. Sad to say I wasn't a huge fan. I am going to give it a second chance on Hulu. I found the film disjointed and uninvolving. Sorry but it just did not work for me. At all.
@ Nathaniel
I think markgordonuk may be referring to this TFE article, Actors Turned Producers @ the Oscars: "Frances McDormand is the first woman [nominated for producing and acting in the same year], then, and she might become the first person, ever, to win Best Picture and an Acting trophy for the same film. No man or woman has managed that yet."
As an oscar podcast far lesser than the film experience surmised, SAG's only opportunity to award Nomadland is to give Frances the lead actress award. If she wins there and and BAFTA, that is some real strength going into Oscar. I think it is an interesting observation.
I haven't seen My Octopus Teacher yet, but have seen the others. Since the documentary branch is generally less populist than the academy at large and Octopus still made the line-up, my thinking that it will win.
oh gawd, maybe we need to add categories of documentaries, instead of trying to pick one out of the all the possibilities.
Upsetting, timely, important!: Welcome to Chechnya
and
Uplifting, beautiful!: My Octopus Teacher
and
Informative!: Crip Camp
@Dan Humphrey: I too agree with your take re: John Oliver vs. Bill Maher. I'm also as progressive as they come, but I feel like Oliver's show is just a lecture for minutes on end.. makes even people who agree with him feel like they're guilty. And there's something off-putting about people who act they have The One True Opinion, even if it's an opinion I agree with. As arrogant as Bill Maher is sometimes (and I disagree with him on a few big things), he's willing to let opposing views out and not slam shut the possibility he may be wrong from time to time.
Nat: It's...well...I think only furries (which...guilty) would raise this concern, but if this were a human/anthro romance, it'd be a pretty...hack...rom-com. That's a pretty good starting point for "unpleasant."
My Octopus Teacher is great. Guy Lodge's twitter comment last night makes sense to me: "A film that critics were very late to, that non-film people found on their own and adored. (My parents and brother were the first to tell me about it.) To many it feels like their own discovery, not something they were told to watch: I think that’s why it’ll win the Oscar."
@Michael R - I had a similar experience. When something is up for Best Pic, I genuinley WANT to like it, at the very least. There are a lot of wonderful things about it but ultimately I slept through a good amount and couldn't help feeling underwhelmed. I completely understand the love for the film, as the real life nomads are truly heartfelt and wonderful and David Strathan is great. I'm 100 on Zhao getting Best Director, but would love something else for Best Pic. Really don't think Frances's performance really merits a nomination.
The Mole Agent is towering above all other nominees in the category, but I doubt it has a chance to win (also I keep wondering how much of it is scripted and re-enacted). Crip Cramp was a lot better and a lot more uplifting than I expected. Collective is middle of the pack for me (it seemed more interested in the investigation than the scandal that was investigated on), which leaves the two presumed frontrunners as the ones I don't care about: My Octopus Teacher, which is 90 minutes of narration that is a guy talking about his midlife crisis, and Time, a complete mess of a film that is skirting around all the topics it doesn't want to get into and is appealing to emotions without really backing it up with facts (and you get why it's low on facts if you start googling a bit).
It's sad to see Minari lose here. I thought Nomadland was a fine film, but that Minari has far more heart. If anything beats Nomadland now, even the SAG winner, it will be a big upset.
No question that Nomadland would be winning without a preferential ballot.
If Minari snags the SAG, I think it has a good chance at an upset. One would think it would also need to pull in other awards too, like Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress.
There are some that will be bored by Nomadland and rank it low. It feels like Minari will get high placements across the board.
Although the SAG Ensemble award will probably be irrelevant to Best Picture now that Nomadland looks locked up, I still think it might be telling about certain other categories. Namely, if Minari wins, I feel like that’ll indicate it has enough support to win SOMEWHERE, and my guess is either Supporting Actress or Original Screenplay would be its best bet. If Trial of the Chicago 7 wins, I don’t think it changes much since it’s probably already the frontrunner for Original Screenplay and Editing.
Mikenewq : I wish Zhao would have made a straight up documentary about the nomadic lifestyle. Would have made for a far more involving film experience.
As a long term Frances detractor this year I so want her to win.
You want her to Day-Lewis? I don't like either of her Oscar wins. But she's not done being a viable nominee after this season. Why can't get she wait for number three for acting?
Oscar is strange with who it selects to become multiple Oscar winners. McDormand becoming a best actress mainstay where the bulk of her nominated work was in supporting. Zellweger returning for a biopic project we assumed would be failed awards bait.
Yet Glenn Close can't get arrested despite continuing to amass additional nods. And when will they nominate Kidman for an R rated vehicle?
Nathaniel - I just thought it was so fetishistic and voyeuristically invasive towards the octopus, which is made even weirder by how he constantly anthropomorphizes her. The guy was annoying to me and as someone who has been super fascinated by octopi since grade school a lot of his observations felt very entry-level. To hop off Volvagia's comment, his energy does feel weirdly romantic/sexual at a certain point, and I did not appreciate that. To flip it in a different direction, this reminds me of a lot of movies about some lonely jag learning to live again by meeting this cool woman who dies. Bothered me on a lot of levels.
My Octopus teacher is actually about an Octopus or a sexual maniac teacher?
Not joking, the question is serious.
I think Minari will get a ton of #3, #4, and #5 votes. Whether that will be enough to survive the first two rounds we shall see!
I think Minari will get a ton of #3, #4, and #5 votes. Whether that will be enough to survive the first two rounds we shall see!
Today's posts are giving me life. I thought I was the only one who could not get into:
1.Oliver's show- Why does every awards body think this is the only worthy show when there are so many great options.
2. Nomandland- Minari, PYWand JATBM seem so much more ambitious and interesting
3. My Octopus Teacher- Creepy and not as deep as it wants to be
Documentary Feature could have been the strongest category of all and then they went and nominated that ropey lineup. Found My Octopus Teacher exhausting. I mean leave the poor octopus alone. Go have your midlife crisis somewhere else. Having said that not as bad as Time one of the very worst films I saw the whole of 2020. My ranking............
Collective
The Mole Agent
Crip Camp
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Of course Boys State, 76 Days or Welcome To Chechnya should all be in contention.
Michael R you're repeating yourself. Why?
Three Artful, in your metaphor this year Glenn Close is getting arrested, tried and sentenced to Oscar Glory (glory as in victory, not a worthy achievement).
The trouble with MINARI and NOMADLAND is they're both films for the same demographic: People who like inspiring films set in rural America. These are the people who loved PLACES IN THE HEART and TENDER MERCIES and THE TRIP TO BOUNTIFUL. With the preferential ballot, it's hard seeing the Oscar not going to one or the other. I think people who put one as the top choice will likely put the other as the #2 choice. I actually think a straight up, most votes wins ballot would give PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN or THE FATHER a shot, but the preferential ballot is going to give it to one of these two, probably NOMADLAND.
So Frances McDormand might win her 3rd and even 4th Oscar if Nomadland wins Best Picture.
Although I think she is a fantastic actress, to see Frances leapfrog over Meryl Streep and tie with Katherine Hepburn is so unfair.
Dan Humphrey - I agree with you. Best Picture will be either Minari or Nomadland.
The only negative stopping Minari from winning is the fact that Parasite won last year. I cannot see 2 South Korean themed films winning in a row.
Remember when Chariots of Fire won? The American members of the Academy were outraged that a foreign film won Best Picture. Sadly for them Gandhi won the next year.