Yes, we're working on the Oscar charts...

For those of you who have been asking. Yes, the Oscar charts will go up soon with first predictions of the year. I'll confess right up front that this year is mighty confusing. That's partially because we're still in pandemic mode and a lot of the big studios are playing it coy about release dates and there are surely numerous sales still to happen. One assumes the studios are all watching each week's box office reports and other much more vague indicators (like streaming numbers which are rarely public and always unverifiable even when they are) to decide on the best way forward in this tough time for the industry. 

Another reason this year feels confusing is that A24 has a truckload of promising films but very few with actual release dates (and they've been known to really only focus on one once things heat up). Meanwhile MGM/UA, not usually a big player, has multiple promising titles...

Apple TV+ has a potential sleeper success which was big at Sundance but they've still got that "TV" problem in their name that is going to make it hard to make Oscar inroads even though it's basically the same business model as Amazon and Netflix. Speaking of... Netflix, which has been growing in Oscar strength, doesn't feel as formidable this year but that could change rapidly. Paramount and Universal and Fox (now redubbed 20th Century) used to be intermittently big players but their release schedules are depressingly sparse.

Do you see any films missing from the following list that you're hopeful about... (This is just a cheat sheet to keep track as we work on the charts.)

Key films from various distributors though Oscar fates will depend on reviews, what the studio focuses on in campaigning, and actual release dates (several of these films don't yet have them)
A24 After Yang • God's Creatures • Green Knight • Humans • Red Rocket • Showing Up • Tragedy of Macbeth • The Whale • Zola	Amazon Annette • Being the Ricardos • Everybody's Talking about Jamie • A Hero • Val	Apple TV+ CODA • Finch	Bleecker Street Mass	Disney Cruella • Encanto • Eternals • Luca • Ron's Gone Wrong • Shang-Chi
Focus Belfast • Blue Bayou • Card Counter • Last Nght in Soho • Stillwater	IFC Films Benedetta • Bergman Island	MGM/UA Cyrano • Flag Day • House of Gucci • No Time to Die • Respect • Soggy Bottom	Neon Memoria • Pig • Spencer • Titane • Worst Person in the World	Netflix Blonde • Don't Look Up • Mitchells vs Machines • Passing • Power of the Dog • Untitled Fingscheidt/Bullock
Paramount A Quiet Place 2 • Top Gun Maverick	Searchlight Eyes of Tammy Faye • French Dispatch • Next Goal Wins • Nightmare Alley	Sony Journal for Jordan • Spider-Man: No Way Home	SPC Carmen • Compartment No 6 • The Duke • Jockey • Mothering Sunday • Nine Days • Parallel Mothers	20th Century The Last Duel • West Side Story
Universal Dear Evan Hansen	Warner Bros Cry Macho • Dune • In the Heights • King Richard • Many Saints of Newark • The Matrix 4		Distribution ??? Electrical Life of Louis Wain • Nitram	Not Until Early 2022 so Next Year's Race Bullet Train • Deep Water • Doctor Strange  • Downton Abbey  • Mrs Harris Goes to Paris • The Northman

Comments

[Mike in Canada]

It maybe making your job more challenging - but boy, is it comforting to look at those slates (especially A24 and Neon) and know that art is approaching!

[peggy Sue]

Save movies for 2022. It takes a village to wrap with crew members testing positive every week.

[Peter]

No Sudden Move - Warner
Red, White and Water (maybe 2022?) - A24
The Harder They Fall - Netflix
The Guilty - Netflix

[Andy]

Seeing the number of possible heavy hitters for WB makes In the Heights look like much more of a longshot. With no Golden Globes to raise its profile at the end of the year, will awards bodies even bother to remember it?

Also I wouldn’t rule out Raya and the Last Dragon as you seem to have already. It could absolutely still fall outside the final Animated Feature lineup, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Disney get three nominations, with Raya, Luca and Encanto (Ron’s Gone Wrong, which is actually 20th Century, seems like a longshot based off early promotional materials)

[Peter]

Also:

Canterbury Glass
Kimi
Thirteen Lives (2022?)
Pinocchio
Way of the Wind

[Edwin]

I’m sure this will be addressed at some point, but Titane being a French/Belgian co-production could just as easily hurt or help it as far as the International Film category goes. France may opt to submit something else as it’s not in their usual wheelhouse of Oscar submissions, which could allow Belgium to submit it instead. Or it could end up like Red back in ‘94 where they couldn’t agree on which country would get to submit it, so it just wound up being ineligible in the category.

[Joe G]

I'm a bit surprised the studio is holding off on Downton 2. It's going to make money whenever it's realeased, but it seems to be an ideal Christmas release, especially in the UK.

There are a lot of great films coming out next year, but none of these really seem to be ones that have a wide crossover appeal or the class Dad film (e.g., 1917, Ford v Ferrari). It's hard to imagine what will be in the Best Picture line up.

[Leon]

Electrical Life of Louis Wain is Amazon. Also Macbeth is having double distributor with Apple+ sharing duties with A24.

And, David O Russell film is Fox.

[Leon]

And Sorrentino's new film - The Hand of God is Netflix.

[harmodio]

I am very interested in Best International Film. There are still countries whose movie theaters have not opened 100% and there are movies that have been released on the internet because of this or are still waiting for a greater opening of movie theaters.

[Tony Ruggio]

Doubt it'll happen, but I'm rooting for Ridley Scott this year. Guy's in his 80's and deserves a career Oscar ala Scorsese's Departed.

[markgordonuk]

Blue Bayou will hopefully get Vikander out from under the supporting actress curse.

[Corey]

Everything is so off and odd this year. I have a feeling that if Soggy Bottom is good enough, they might just finally shower Paul Thomas Anderson with awards.

[Alex Hartsell]

I have some movies you can put on the list

* Belle
* Free Guy
* Godzilla vs. Kong
* Vivo
* Don't Look Up
* The Starling
* Flee

[Pivo]

A24 has also C'mon C'mon

[Morgan]

Delta is super contagious. We'll watch a lot of movies at home

[NATHANIEL R]

Tony -- i really dont understand why they haven't given him an Honorary.

[Min]

Meh. Take your time. We get enough great content here to read (although maybe miss the comments, sadly the comments where the author jumps in especially as of late) xo

[Edward L.]

Edwin: In 1994, there was agreement over who was to submit Red: it was a Swiss submission. The film was disqualified because the Academy determined it wasn't a majority Swiss production.

[Glenn Dunks]

NEON also have the new Sciamma, Petit Maman

[Philip H.]

I hope The Whale is good! It sounds intriguing. I love Aronofsky and it would be cool to see Brendan Fraser nominated.

[Michael R]

I am keeping my eyes on Garfield and especially Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. I think she can take the whole damn thing.

[shawshank]

Where are the updated charts!!?? You said soon, so every day now I check and am disappointed. Can't wait!