Oscar Prediction Charts: Three questions about Best Supporting Actor
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:22PM by Nathaniel R
We're not predicting Richard E Grant Oscar buzz for the drag musical Everybody's Talking About Jamie but we're sharing his picture because we're in this kind of cheerful mood and because he was ROBBED in his Oscar year and we've been fans for as long as we can remember. Wasn't he fun on Loki this month?
The supporting categories at the Oscars are always hard to read this early. Supporting roles are rarely the focus of pre-release buzz. What's more they can have a tough time finding awards love since leading movie stars have a super gross and predictable way of constantly crashing the party for those lower on the call sheet (last year's "supporting" race arguably had just one 100% no debate supporting player). So we threw one lead into the predictions (Jesse Plemons in Power of the Dog) but it's more than likely that some other lead will be pitched here, too. We don't care to guess about who that will be right now. For first attempt at predicting nominations in this category for 2021 we're saying...
- Reed Birney, Mass
- Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
- Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (unless it's a very small role)
- Jared Leto, House of Gucci
- Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog
SEE THE PREDICTION CHART FOR MORE DETAILS
The three things involving Best Supporting Actor that we're most curious about at this writing...
1. Who is Bradley Cooper playing in Soggy Bottom?
The last we heard was a rumor that he was playing the movie producer Jon Peters which is hilarious since Peters produced A Star is Born in the 1970s and Cooper later remade it to great acclaim. We're very excited about this movie since Paul Thomas Anderson already made one masterpiece set in that decade (Boogie Nights) so why not two?
2. Can David Alvarez score a nod for his film debut as "Bernardo" in the new West Side Story?
He won the Tony for Best Actor at just 15 years of age so an Oscar nomination for his debut film at 27 would be in keeping with that overachieving start.
3. Who will win "best in show" reviews for Dune?
Oscar's acting branch is ridiculously averse to sci-fi acting (even on the rare occassions when they like a sci-fi film - think Arrival, District 9, or Mad Max Fury Road) so we don't think Dune is likely to win traction in ANY acting categories. But it has so many excellent male actors in supporting roles that we can't wait to see who gets MVP type notices. Will it be Isaac? Brolin? Bautista? Bardem? Maybe someone who is barely or not even in the trailer like Dastmalchian? Chen? Henderson? Or maybe it'll be Stellan Skarsgard as the ickiest of villains, Baron Harkonnen.
Reader Comments (24)
No thoughts on "Pig" so far? Alex Wolff is getting tremendous reviews for his role, following up on the promise of "Hereditary."
Fingers crossed for Dafoe.
Fingers crossed for 0% fraud.
And Fingers crossed to experience most of these in theaters.
Under my No Duplicate Winners take on Oscar history, the field you are predicting for Supporting Actor is:
1. Jesse Plemons, Power of the Dog
2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
3. Reed Birney, Mass
4. Rob Morgan, Don't Look Up
5. David Alvarez, West Side Story
(If you're wondering about Dafoe? Under this history, Caine wins in 1972 Lead Actor, Dafoe takes 1986 Supporting.)
As for Jared Leto: I don't buy it. Nominating Jared Leto, someone NO ONE LIKES at this point, for a movie with PACINO in it? ABSURD. I'd predict Pacino getting a 10th before I assumed Leto was going to be spotlit as the movie's Supporting Actor bid.
I would imagine Jason Isaacs is more likely to get in here than Reed Birney for the same film - Isaacs is a slightly more recognizable face and, cynically, apparently has more of a showy 'lead'-y role (but is confirmed to campaign here).
All the 4 actors of Mass will compete in supporting. Confirmed by the same studio.
Richard Jenkins also has Nightmare Alley and Mark Rylance is in Don't Look Up.
Feel good about Plemons getting in, and Dafoe being among the first cast members mentioned by the Nightmare Alley team with each press release suggests he could be a stand-out.
I'd suggest you're underestimating Driver in The Last Duel and perhaps Jeffrey Wright in The French Dispatch (got stand-out reviews and is highly respected). As Rod said, Mark Rylance is in Don't Look Up and apparently has a showy role as a Warren Buffet/Bill Gates-style business magnate.
If you're looking out for potential category fraud candidates, I would suggest Andrew Garfield is a threat for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. He has an indisputable lead role in Tick, Tick... Boom! so could campaign here to avoid internal competition - could follow a similar track to Carell in Battle of the Sexes or Murray in On the Rocks (who admittedly didn't get in but likely came close!)
Volvagia -- as hard as it is to believe, a lot of people do like him. It's only the internet that doesn't. How else to explain his awards nominations for a terrible movie last year despite lots of competition.
I think Benny Safdie will be nominated instead of Cooper, who apparently has a very brief small role and only shot for two weeks.
Safdie looks to have the baitier and more interesting role as the closeted politician.
1. Richard Jenkins (The Humans)
2. Al Pacino (House of Gucci)
3. Jesse Plemons (The Power of The Dog)
4. Mark Rylance (Don't Look Up)
5. Benny Safdie (Soggy Bottom)
Jesse Plemmons, please and thank you
and it'd be so great to see him and Kiki both nominated in the same year (and for the same movie)
David, A pro director with a pro actor can shoot a lot of stuff, so don't count Cooper out. I think Christopher Plummer spent less than two weeks on set with Ridley Scott for the role that snagged him his final Best Supporting Actor nomination. And if he's boffo in NIGHTMARE ALLEY and the Academy is thinking they stiffed him on A STAR IS BORN, which they did, he might be one of those rare double nominees next year.
^^ "Lot of stuff IN TWO WEEKS"
I would have placed Richard Jenkins far higher, "The Humans" won Reed Birney the Tony, and oddly enough, he didn't reprise his role on film (was he filming "Mass" or something?). Reminds me of how Frank Langella wasn't allowed to reprise his role in "The Father" that won him the Tony. Anthony Hopkins swoops in, and you know the rest. Veteran actors usually have a leg-up in this category historically, though that's changing some with wins like Ali and Kaluuya.
Maybe Frank Langella was shooting Trial of the Chicago 7 at the time? If so, what a downgrade.
There’s rumblings that Corey Hawkins is great in The Tragedy of Macbeth. I agree with you that the focus will undoubtedly be on the triptych of Coen/McDormand/Washington, but Hawkins is a strong, up-and-coming actor and Macduff is probably the most sympathetic role in the show.
My no guts, no glory prediction is only supporting actors in Macbeth will be nominated.
As for Dune, Skarsgard or even Dastmalchian seem the most likely. Perhaps Henderson. I agree that it seems unlikely this will get acting nominations but you never know.
I love that Reed Birney is in the conversation. Jenkins is great but he should have kept his role in The Humans.
This list feels really theater heavy. At least among the top contenders.
I also doubt that voters are going to go with an all white line-up. While I don't think it's actively on their mind, the campaigning that happened last year, and the shift to streamers being fully embraced, means that studios are willing to put money behind stars of color and films filled with PoC or foreign cast. That shift, among studios, is important and means we could see A24 push Domingo really hard, or Netflix decide that Passing has a chance at multiple noms and push Holland.
If Willem Dafoe makes it in, then I think he has the momentum to sweep the televised awards. I also think that if House of Gucci is a hit and embraced, as it seems to be, then Pacino will not only be nominated, but has a real shot at the gold. I'd put him above Leto since so many actors tend to get a second nom when they're reembraced after a long abscence (e.g., Glenn Close in 2020, Caine in 2002, Duvall in 1999).
I'd love for Grant to come back after he was robbed but it's unlikely.
It's so hard to predict this far in advance but i'll give it a go
Dafoe
Pacino
Leto
Plemmons
Isaacs.
This is an interesting line up ... (I personally don't need Leto & Pacino again in here - as they tend to be a bit much for my taste sometimes) - but Cooper was really robbed for A Star Is Born - and I still don't know why... it nearly felt like there was some jealously of his achievement in the air ... or maybe because he shouldn't have been nominated for American Sniper ? Anyway I'm talking to myself .. it's time for him if he's good - but if Dafoe has a shot - he should be first in line !!!
All four MASS actors are so clearly leads. It's basically one long scene with the four of them sitting at a table.
Gay Face! Gay Face! Gay Face! Where are those voices now?
I love how Richard E Grant is living his glass closet bi/pan in a monogamous male/female relationship and he isn't forced to address it or gossiped about. This is the future the liberals want. (Keeping my reliable source anonymous of course)
Volvz I love your idiotic crazy take on your personal awards. Idiosyncratic, passionate personal and cringe in equal parts. Compelling or an automatic skip, your comments are always a ride! So fun!