Oscar Chart Updates: Supporting Categories
Wednesday, January 19, 2022 at 10:30AM by Nathaniel R
While both Best Actress and Best Actor (recently discussed here and here) appear to have furious volatile competitions for the anxiety-provoking fifth slots, is the same true in the Supporting categories?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Since the beginning of the SAG awards in the mid 90s, no leading performer has ever won the Oscar without first being recognized by SAG. The same is not true in the supporting categories. In other words, Aunjanue Ellis' fierce mother turn in King Richard is not out of the race for the gold. We suspect that SAG (mostly) settled Supporting Actress despite her absence, and that Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley will prove to be a fluke (Oscar voters have never been that obsessed with femme fatales ignoring many classic performances of that ilk over the decades). Despite feeling like the race is settled, we admit to biting our nails to the quick (figuratively) about Ruth Negga's stellar hypnotic work in Passing if only because the film doesn't appear to have industry support in other efforts so she is in the always nerve-wracking position of "would be the sole nominee from her film". Do you think the new chart is accurate or would you play around with the order?
SUPPORTING ACTOR
The absence of Belfast's men from SAG (outside of "Outstanding Cast") was the biggest collective surprise of SAG nominations last week. But does it mean anything in the grand scheme of things given that Focus' campaign for Belfast has been very steady for months. Hinds has the more traditional role (sickly kind grandfather) while Dornan has become the 'face' of the campaign, which often pays off with Oscar voters. But precursors have been kinder to household name stars Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Ben Affleck (Tender Bar). Will Oscar follow suit? We think yes and no simultaneously. But beyond Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Jared Leto a lot of combinations for the other two spots feel vaguely plausible including an out of left field possibility (but not really since they're in Best Picture frontrunners) as Chris so brilliantly pointed out when investigating what type of performances "surprise" with nominations.
POST-SAG UPDATED CHARTS
Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor
Reader Comments (13)
I don't think Leto is a lock at all. He's certainly very possible but House of Gucci is still a wild card overall, he missed a Globe nom, and has only ever been nominated once before almost 10 years ago. I think Cooper is a much surer thing... he has 4 nominations and Licorice Pizza is likelier to show up elsewhere (Picture, Screenplay, Director). I could see any combination of Belfast guys, Leto, Faist, Simmons, Affleck, or Plemons rounding out the last 2 spots.
Supporting Actress feels settled to me. I think the Globes lineup will be what we see unless nostalgia springs them for Moreno at the expense of Negga.
I do feel nervous for Ruth Negga. There are very few women who are able to be the lone nominees - just two since the switch to 10 BP. Kathy Bates (veteran/living legend) and Jackie Weaver, who was sort of a discovery that season. I do wonder if Tessa Thompson has more traction than we think and if Netflix is pushing Rebecca Hall for her screenplay? That could help Negga out.
I really hope the academy doesn't go for Leto. His performance is embarrassing and fits better on SNL.
If Sam Rockwell could get in for playing Bush, then I think Bradley has a good shot if his fim is well loved. I'm just not certain it will be with the academy. It seems more like the type of film that's in 10th place in the BP race and is more of a screenplay nominee.
Men have an easier time being their sole nominee (Dafoe, Plummer x2, Michael Shannon, Stallone, Duvall, Nolte, Harrelson, and Tucci). But I don't think Ben Affleck is in the same league as them as an actor. He's not a legend, and he's not a beloved character actor hunting for his first nomination like Tucci. I suspect, like J.Lo, he'll be snubbed because his film's campaign has just focused on him rather than the picture.
I think you have PTSD from Leto almost making it in last year :) I just don't think he has the edge over Dornan and a couple others given that their films will be much bigger players overall. I'm starting to come around on Affleck though.. he has a "comeback" narrative that Leto doesn't.
What saddens me most about the season is when a buzzy performance stops other cast members getting any few or any mention.
Mass has Plimpton and Birney and are for me that films stand outs Dowd would actually place last of the 4.
Passing has Thompson and Holland but it's all about Negga rightly so but they are all doing good work.
Don't Look Up has horrible acting apart from Lawrence and a tender Melanie Lynskey
Tragedy of Macbeth has McDormand Hunter and Melling
None of the male cast or Dakota or Dominga from Lost Daughter
Only Troy singled out for CODA.
The fine supporting cast of Bruised Lennix and Atim.
I'm still baffled that Marlee Matlin hasn't become a stronger contender with the kind of second nomination after a long absence from serious consideration. After last year's support of The Sound of Metal, I'm happy to see another deaf focused film getting Oscar buzz this year. I would expect Matlin to sneak in over Ellis if she somehow doesn't get nominated. I do think Negga joins Belfe, Dunst, and DuBose.
I'm also baffled at the Jared Leto love this year (much like last year). He started a cult on an island a few years ago for Cripes sake! Faist from West Side snuck onto the BAFTA shortlist. I'd go with him, Cooper, Kotsur, Smit-McPhee, and Jamie Dornan over Affleck and Leto for the fifth spot. I think House of Gucci is going to flop nomination wise overall.
I feel like the predictable 5 in supporting actress will be an all-timer of a lineup. The weakest is Balfe, and she's pretty good. So of course I'm a little worried something will happen to Negga or Ellis and hurt the integrity of this lineup.
For supporting actor, it'll be the most fun on Oscar morning, since it's so unstable - but if it's Leto-Affleck-Hinds, with no Dornan/Cooper/Plemons/Faist that'll be depressing.
I guess I could make a lot of money if I bet on Blanchett getting in for Don't Look Up instead of Nightmare Alley and she pulled off that surprise nod.
Mike - I agree supporting actor will be the most fun, but I think Affleck and Hinds potentially getting their first acting nods is plenty fun. Leto is the only potential turd in the punchbowl from my standpoint.
"Oscar voters have never been that obsessed with femme fatales ignoring many classic performances of that ilk over the decades"
this is 7-time nominee and 2-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett in a Del Toro movie
I'm guessing you've got it right for Supporting Actor - although Affleck could get in.
But Supporting Actress, I just don't know. Sure, Dunst and DeBose and I think Negga are in (negga especially better be!). But beyond that I just don't know - Balfe, Ellis, Blanchett, Hunter, Buckley, I can imagine circumstances in which they'd all make it. Will be fun to watch over the next month.
Please, let the Oscars snub Jared Leto. He is evil and his band fucking sucks ass.
Nathaniel, do you think Kiki Dunst has any shot at actually winning, or is the nom her reward? I’m probably just hoping too much for my fav, but I feel Anita again is the easy choice. Then again, I haven’t seen WSS yet.
I think Supporting Actor feels extremely volatile; seems primed for at least one surprise if not a few.
I've been unable to shake the feeling, since seeing Don't Look Up, that Mark Rylance will sneak into the final Oscar line-up.
Adam McKay films tend to become Oscar players largely through fans of the acting (and writing), and his last two movies both got Supporting Actor noms. Rylance is an esteemed, show-y actor and his performance is full of actorly tics and memorable lines - the whole movie comes to a stop for the scene where he tells DiCaprio how he is going to die (which feels like the exact thing they'd use as an Oscar clip).
Him missing Globes and SAG so far does mean the odds are against him, but his film was a late breaker and if he gets into BAFTA, I think he gets the Bradley Cooper spot (or with any luck, siphons big-physical-transformation votes from Leto).