Oscar Volley: Is Best Animated Feature already wrapped up?
Saturday, January 29, 2022 at 6:00PM Continuing our Oscar Volley series at The Film Experience. Abe Friedtanzer and Timothy Lyons on Best Animated Feature
My Sunny Maad, Belle, and Poupelle are all hoping to interrupt the Disney party in Best Animated Feature
ABE FRIEDTANZER: Most years after the Oscar nominations come out I have to play catch up on everything I've missed. That's not the case in a second consecutive season where the Oscars are later in the calendar. I have caught most of the contenders here. The mainstream American studio options are actually all great but of course I'd love to see some international choices make the cut. Belle seems like a decent bet to crack the list, and while it's a terrific film, I want to champion another Japanese movie, Poupelle of Chimney Town. I do worry that it's too under-the-radar to get enough votes, but it was the most visually striking animation I saw all year. I was also impressed by My Sunny Maad, which, like the much buzzier Flee, is about Afghanistan but is a very different experience. Maad has only been noticed by the Golden Globes, so I'm not sure what kind of buzz it has. What have you seen that you'd love to see nominated...
TIMOTHY LYONS: As a self-professed anime nerd I’m quietly devastated that I can’t offer input on Belle or Poupelle. Getting access to the films in Australia is always a challenge if they are end-of-year or platform releases in the US. Mamoru Hosoda’s filmography always meant that Belle would be a must-see but so pleased to hear that Poupelle is more than just a ‘filling out the slate’ kind of inclusion. As far as what I’m championing, it’s The Mitchells vs the Machines all the way. It feels super solid for a nomination but then so did another hyper-kinetic, universally acclaimed, aggressively funny, non-Disney masterwork a few years ago: The Lego Movie...
As someone who’s seen a wider breadth of contenders, I’d be curious to know your thoughts on where Mitchells falls both quality and predictions-wise.
ABE: Loved it. I think it could have been a frontrunner to win but for two things. First, was the fact that it missed a Golden Globe nomination. The group's choices have been widely disregarded as insignificant in the wake of the backlash, but, that ignores the fact that awards bodies often do think alike, however anyone sees any particular group's relevance. Missing that mark shows that there are other films in contention that people just prefer. The second is that Encanto is in the mix. It made my top ten list and it's widely loved. It's definitely going to win. The question is: what will join those two, if we're assuming they're both in? Belle is not a guarantee, and I'm honestly not sure if Flee is either though it seems likelier to score here in some ways than in the International Feature category. I do wish that Vivo was part of the conversation because it was such a wonderful - and visible - film, but that ship has sailed. I know Nathaniel has been debating whether Luca or Raya and the Last Dragon will be the one to miss, and I'm honestly not sure. What do you think?
TIMOTHY: It’s really hard to know what to make of the Globes this year. I agree completely with your assessment that awards bodies as a whole think similarly. It's particularly weird this year since people are pretending the Globes don’t exist while, at the same time, rocketing Nicole Kidman to the top of their Best Actress predictions based solely on her win there. Go figure. Anyway, back to Best Animated Feature. I adored Encanto. There's so much life in every frame and I’m so pleased that Disney is continuing what Moana started in telling stories of strong female protagonists finding personal strength who are completely free of the burden of a love interest. I second that it’s looking strong for the win. I’m not mad at all. I don’t see Luca missing a nomination either. It’s minor Pixar, sure, but still it’s Pixar and they’ve only ever missed with sequels or when they’ve had more than one film eligible. Plus Luca was a joy. If one of the Disney trio were to fall off I’m certain it’s Raya. What did you think of Disney’s first release of 2021?
ABE: It's funny, I ended up watching both Raya and Luca months after they came out. Raya wasn't as memorable as the other but this is a great year for animation, and I'd be happy with any of the films as contenders. If we look at the Annie Awards nominations for Best Feature, we get the four major films we've talked about - Mitchells, Encanto, Luca, and Raya - plus one more, Sing 2.
It's literally the only nomination that sequel got at the Annies, but I was pleasantly surprised when I saw it at a screening. I wasn't interested but I'm glad I took the time since it was fun. Does that mean it needs to be nominated? No, but I wouldn't be unhappy if it was.
If we assume that Raya is out, and Luca and Belle are in, does that mean that Flee misses the cut? My mind immediately goes to Waltz with Bashir, which was eligible in 2008 for Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Film but also scored in the latter category. The recent double-nomination success of both Honeyland and Collective (in International + Documentary) makes it seem like Flee could pull off an unprecedented trifecta but I'm tempted to think that won't happen. I've already cautiously bumped it from my International Feature predictions, but I don't know if it misses here, too? My question is, should these category-specific films be able to show up in multiple fields, or is it better to recognize more projects?
TIMOTHY: I do agree that if Flee misses anywhere, it’s here. It’s the documentary of it all: the “ghettoised” genre that has the hardest time appearing anywhere but in Documentary Feature. But, hey, there are always exceptions so maybe it really hits with all three branches instead of missing all three (heaven forbid). To your other point, I’m not convinced Raya is out of the mix. Personally, I thought it was narratively stale beyond its fantastic world building, important representation, and the Awkwafina of it all. Still, I think it will pull through. It has been nominated everywhere, proving it's not forgotten.
My predictions
- Encanto
- Luca
- Raya and the Last Dragon
- Mitchells vs teh Machines
- Flee
alt. Belle
The Disney trifecta are your top three. think the wide acclaim and visibility of the Mouse House Three says a lot in this COVID world. Voters were watching these regardless of box-ticking obligation, they’re readily available for viewing (and repeat viewing) and they’ve had time to penetrate the imagination, buoyed by the reviews. I think this also helps Mitchells though it doesn't have the added ‘required viewing’ of the Disney banner. Flee gets in based on quality and the loudness of its champions. Belle just feels like the outlier.
Thoughts?
ABE: That's fair. I'm remembering when The Boss Baby got in a few years ago without an international or independent contender to boot it from the list. I don't think I can discount Belle, and I'm not sure I want to drop Flee either. Maybe that means that Raya gets in and Luca doesn't. In a weaker year, I would have been campaigning for less likely choices to get in, like when I was floored with both Klaus and I Lost My Body making the cut in 2019 but would have swapped out the sequels in that category for Weathering with You and Buñuel and the Labyrinth of Turtles. But Oscar ballots are not our ballots. I think I'm comfortable predicting, in this order:
- Encanto
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines
- Flee
- Belle
- Raya and the Last Dragon
alt. Luca
TIMOTHY: Love the shoutout to Weathering With You - Makoto Shinkai’s best film to my mind. As you can probably glean, I’m all over the place with what’s happening with Flee. Within the same thought, I’m seeing it miss here and make it at the same time. I do think it’s the most vulnerable of my predictive five. It deserves to be included in all three specialised categories but who knows how voters feel? Do I sometimes fall into the camp that a film can be over-rewarded regardless of quality? Absolutely. Maybe voters will think it lands easily in doc or international and give Belle or another film the spotlight here.
Speaking of which, please tell me about Belle - a film I’m dying to see. How does it compare to Hosoda’s other work? And then if we’re settling on noms, is there any other film you can see for the win other than Encanto? I’m thinking of 2012 when the consensus seemed to be it was Disney Animation’s Wreck it Ralph’s to lose and the Academy kind of defaulted to Pixar and gave it to Brave. Is there a world where Luca both makes the cut and takes the prize?
ABE: What I'll say about Belle is that it just draws you in right away. I feel like we see so many different pictures of virtual reality and what that could look like, and this felt entirely inventive and immersive. I liked Mirai, which was nominated three years ago in this category, and I can definitely see this appealing to a similar audience. I don't think it's a lock but it's staying in my predictions. Regarding your 2012 callback, I also always think of 2006, where the expected winner, Cars, was eclipsed by Happy Feet (I'm a fan of the former over the latter!). You cited The Lego Movie earlier in our conversation, but the three snubs that sting most for me over the years are Tangled, The Adventures of Tintin, and The Good Dinosaur. I don't think that Luca has the power to win this year, and I'm still not convinced it's getting nominated. I don't see a compelling enough argument against Encanto, and it's also the Lin-Manuel Miranda project that other awards bodies are going all-in on, despite the strength of Vivo, In the Heights, and tick, tick...BOOM! which are mostly going to be ignored at the Oscars.
If anything was going to best Encanto, it would be The Mitchells, but you're also talking to the person who, in his first-ever year of making predictions (2003!), bet on The Triplets of Belleville eclipsing Finding Nemo. That did not happen.
I think this race is just as wrapped up as it was last year. Aside from some fun nominees two years ago that I thought could have taken down Toy Story 4 (but didn't), this category really hasn't been competitive since 2012. Any parting thoughts?
TIMOTHY: Encanto is definitely the safest bet for the ceremony pre-nominations so we’re in agreement there and it would be crazy to outright bet against it -- not Triplets over Nemo crazy -- but somewhere in the vicinity haha. Still, strange things do happen. I’d cite 2014 and even 2001 as spoiler years along with 2012 and 2006 but that’s only four out of the twenty years of the category’s existence. Usually the winner is obvious. Tintin remains Spielberg’s most underrated effort (still waiting on those sequels) and I’m with you on its exclusion still hurting. Was it disqualified due to mo-cap work? I’d add Ponyo in 2009 as a snub that smarts but that was a tight set of five and I can’t think which would have fallen to include Miyazaki’s little gem. Also Weathering With You but that never stood a chance. On nomination morning we'll see if I get to claim bragging rights as to Disney's complete dominance of the field.
ABE: Unbelievably, Tintin was eligible but didn't make the cut. With only three or five nominees, something is always going to miss. I'd also like to note that, relevant to our discussion, Team Experience handed all three prizes - documentary, international feature (a tie), and animated feature - to Flee, an instance where I think it might have been nicer to spread the wealth. Will this foreshadow the Oscars or do the opposite? It’s also worth noting that Sing 2 showed up on both the PGA and ACE Eddie lists, so maybe it’s headed to the Oscars too.
At this point, we ask you, our readers - what do you think? Can all three Disney efforts, Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon get in? What about Flee and Belle? And can anything beat Encanto?
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Reader Comments (4)
Hoping for Belle! Just braved omicron to see it theatrically today and loved it! My favorite animation of 2021.
Because most of the voters will be members of the Animation Branch, I think that the small percentage of documentary footage in Flee will lead voters to leave it off the ballot. In fact, I could see Flee unnominated as extraordinary as that would be. Documentary looks most likely.
i say
Encanto
Luca
Flee
Mitchells
Raya
not sold on Sing 2 getting in, because other american movies in the past also scored guild nominations and missed the Oscar nod (The Simpsons movie, Good dinosaur, Peanuts movie) in favor of a foreign/arthouse work and that's what helps Flee (or even Belle) in this category.
I wonder why Encanto isn't getting more Best Picture suggestions. It's the first animated film to really crack the zeitgest since Frozen and would be a better blockbuster type film to get into the top 10 over Spiderman.