Oscar Volleys: Four locks, and the race for the fifth spot in Best Actor
Saturday, January 29, 2022 at 10:32PM Continuing our Oscar Volley series at The Film Experience. Tonight Gabriel Mayora and Ben Miller on Best Actor in a Leading Role
Ben Miller: My big question: is this a race only for the fifth slot? Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, and Denzel Washington all feel locked in. Is there any vulnerability in that top four?
Gabriel Mayora: I am surprised by how excited this self-professed raging actressexual™ (thank you to Nathaniel for that genius term) is to discuss this year's Best Actor category. Most years I find it hard to muster much enthusiasm for this category, but maybe after seeing the race take some surprising shifts last year, I have a renewed interest. I agree with you that Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield, and --to a slightly lesser extent, maybe? -- Washington are all locks, there is little room for surprise come nomination morning.
And while my first instinct is to complain about the Academy's lack of originality, I can't say I blame them. Those four are all so good...
Garfield was superlative in Angels in America on Broadway, yet I have always struggled to connect with him on film until now. The three non-Oscar winners from those four names are delivering what I'm convinced is their best, most surprising screen work to date. And even though The Tragedy of Macbeth never came together for me personally, few actors could master the Herculean task of making Shakespeare's language come across as organic and grounded and effortless as Denzel Washington does. So... this is my long-winded way of saying, I just don't see any of these actors missing out on a nomination. I want to hear about your predictions for that 5th slot, or tell me, Ben, if someone is vulnerable. Who is this year's Paul Giamatti in Sideways?
Ben Miller: I keep having swings on who that fifth slot actor will be. Whoever it is will be someone with definitive passion. The film has been a no-show in a lot of different places, but I can't shake this feeling about Simon Rex. If he doesn't make the five, it's not because people didn't like his performance. I think it's a problem of availability. Not many people have seen Red Rocket. Speaking of unseen, MGM/UA has done such a miserable job of getting Cyrano in front of people and Peter Dinklage could have been a shoe-in. If Dinklage was in any sort of true contention, I would be leaning towards a possible suprrise Will Smith miss, a la Giamatti. But, I definitely don't see that happening. I think the fifth slot will come down to Nicolas Cage in Pig. He has been campaigning smartly and the film's Hulu release synced up nicely. Selfishly, it's also my favorite lead male performance of 2021.
You sound pretty happy with the top four. Is there anyone who you were holding out hope for that never materialized?
Gabriel Mayora: Thank you for asking. Now I don't have to awkwardly shoehorn In the Heights into the conversation as I have been doing for too long now. I saw this gem of a movie back in April when it had its South Florida sneak preview in a packed movie theater. I'd been away from the movies for over a year. From the second Anthony Ramos shows up, he is the definition of a star. I already thought he was memorable in his very supporting role in Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born and he has always been a hoot on stage, but carrying a big Hollywood musical has proven insurmountable to acting giants like Daniel Day-Lewis (count me as the one person in the world who still resents the decision to cast him in Nine -- Antonio Banderas was right there!). Ramos simply thrives no matter what he is being asked to do at any given moment. He also manages to have sizzling chemistry with every single cast member. It's a spectacular performance that should have gotten traction.
If Ramos has no chance, at least I'm glad that your favorite lead male performance of the year's chances are looking pretty good. The passion for Cage is there and people can actually watch the movie!
What about the actors who are in more Oscar-friendly fare? Leonardo DiCaprio in Don't Look Up and Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley had legitimate buzz (if briefly). Then, Javier Bardem got the SAG nomination for Being the Ricardos. Have we been underestimating Bardem all along?
Ben Miller: Even among DiCaprio stans, I don't know of any who are particularly loving his performance. I thought it was fine, but I'm pleasantly surprised at his lack of traction. As for Cooper, the reception is so wildly mixed for his turn in Nightmare Alley, that I can't see it breaking through. Plus, the precursors have almost solidified a Supporting Actor nomination instead for Licorice Pizza. It also feels like everyone is ramping up to fall in love with his Leonard Bernstein passion project Maestro next year.
As is often the case, the Best Actor five will most likely sync up pretty well to Best Picture. Why do you think Best Actor so often translates to Best Picture? Or do you feel it's the other way around?
Gabriel Mayora: I go back and forth. Will Smith being such a force in King Richard surely raised the film's profile and solidified his film as a Best Picture player. Along those lines, I'm predicting Tick Tick Boom! (a movie I was skeptical about but ultimately loved) and The Tragedy of Macbeth (a movie I wanted to love...) for Best Picture, too, based on the likely nominations their respective leading men will earn. Looking at Best Actress, though, I worry that Olivia Colman's expected nod will not do the same for the haunting and all-around brilliant The Lost Daughter.
I know it's not fun to think about the larger structures informing seemingly trivial things like the Oscars. Still, it's hard not to bring up their insidious tendency to regard narratives about men that serve as a showcase for male stars as worthier or better than films focused on women. They rarely pair Best Actress and Best Picture, though we had a rare instance last year with Nomadland. I'll go ahead and complicate my own idea here a bit and say I thought Jude Hill would be more of a contender then he turned out to be when I saw Belfast, and the leading men of some presumed locks for Best Picture like West Side Story, Dune, and Licorice Pizza have virtually no chance of being cited.
Ben Miller: But back to Bardem. You have to remember that Film Twitter is not the Academy. As much as everyone has been shouting from the rooftops about how mediocre/bad Being the Ricardos is, as soon as I saw it, I knew the older generation would love it. It's an AARP Movies for Grownups powerhouse. As much as they have been diversifying the membership, the Academy is still filled with older people. I think if Ricardos can get across the board love (like a surprise JK Simmons nomination), then a Bardem nomination wouldn't surprise me. The performance is a mystery to me, though. Not because he is uncharismatic or bad in it, but because he is so wildly miscast and strangely utilized. Even as the obvious male lead of the film, it doesn't FEEL like a lead performance. If someone asked me to describe his character arc, I wouldn't have much to say!
Gabriel Mayora: Okay, now you got me worried it is Javier Bardem that gets in. Your point about the membership is right on. We know they are watching it, he is out there campaigning with Nicole and Sorkin--it would not be out of the question. Are you choosing between Nicolas Cage and Bardem for your final predictions? What other potential nominees have we ignored so far? We haven't brought up Joaquin Phoenix or Mahershala Ali (whose fancy New York Times profile was strategically published this past week): how likely are they to factor into the race? Or, should the question be, how desperate am I to take my mind off the idea of Bardem being the one?
Ben Miller: The fifth spot is between Bardem, Cage, Dinklage, and Rex. I have this weird feeling about Rex without any sort of empirical evidence. That being said, I think Cage ends up with the nomination.
As for Phoenix and Ali, their films landed with such commercial thuds, I would be downright shocked if either happened. If anyone lands out of nowhere that no one actually saw coming, it would be Hidetoshi Nishijima. I don't see it happening, but if Drive My Car gets a screenplay nomination, don't say I didn't tell you so!
More Oscar Volleys
Nathaniel's Best Actor Oscar Chart
Reader Comments (10)
I would be so happy if Clifton Collins Jr. and Peter Dinklage were nominated, alongside Benedict Cumberbatch.
I am going to go against the mainstream opinion and say that Bardem was the very best thing about the Ricardos films... a performance in service of the film and his costars... and in a great Snape fashion, making the audience doubt all the way, if he was gaslighting Lucille or not... and using charisma to sell Desi's. Extremely balanced and spot on, and with his BIG scene with that speech warming the audience... that is why it doesn't feel as a true "lead", because he really finds the exact tone to not be too showy, and not be devoured, just service the film and the screenplay. A team player. I hope he is nominated.
Unfortunately I think BTR is going to be well loved and score in Lead and Supporting Actor leaving the deserving Rex and Cage in the dust due to lack of BP heat.
I am the only one who liked Frances in Macbeth.
Rooting for Cage - the fact that he's even in the running at this late stage is exciting.
But honestly, I'm certain Bardem is getting in.
Jesus is just being a patriot? Bardem is not even in top 25 best male leading performances of the year. It's such a meh performance that we can't even hate it
Mike -- i keep predicting or wanting to predict Cage because people are still talking about him but something is holding me back. I think it might be that i'm worried he's an 'internet thing' and internet passion around things that turn out to have no real shot becomes a bigger thing each year.
Gabriel -- i was so pleased to read your passionate support of Anthony Ramos. I also love that performance a lot and wish he had managed more traction. At least he got the Globe nomination (which surprised me)
If it were up to me, the nominees would be Ali, Cumberbatch, Garfield, Isaac and Ramos. And neither Smith nor Dinklage would be in the conversation at all. But it ain‘t up to me.
So prediction: Bardem, Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, Washington
i feel people are really overthinking this, and DiCaprio is the pick that makes most sense, Don't look up is HUGE and the contender that's definitely seen by the most people, and the movie is poised to overperform, he's actually doing press for it and clearly voters like him when they nominated him for something like Once upon...
First, the obligatory WHY ISN'T OSCAR ISAAC IN THIS CONVERSATION (not this particular conversation, just in general) for The Card Counter?
Second, I still can't believe that two of my *other* longtime screen loves - Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield - are frontrunners for Best Actor...and that Garfield doesn't even make my own personal top five!! (He's close - he would be #6 or #7.) That's how stacked this year is for lead actor.
Third, Cage making it in would make my day, but I would be surprisingly ok with Leo getting the fifth spot. He is quite good in <I>Don't Look Up. I'd certainly rather have him than Bardem.
This race would get my interest if at least one of these actors is nominated:
Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car
Simon Rex, Red Rocket
Clifton Collins, Jr, Jockey
Dan Stevens, I'm Your Man