The frontrunners for Best Picture went-home empty-handed at SAG. What does it mean?
Monday, February 28, 2022 at 11:48AM We'll talk more about the SAG ceremony and actual winners soon but first let's talk about what happened to Belfast and The Power of the Dog. While Kenneth Branagh's memoir and Jane Campion's instant classic have long been considered Best Picture frontrunners neither of them won a single prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Does this mean anything? Well, yes and no...
With Belfast, which was up for the closest thing SAG has to a "best picture" style prize in "Outstanding Cast", the loss reads like a closing chapter, a defeat. Despite initial twitter mania when few Oscar-hopefuls had yet screened, Caitriona Balfe, the only Belfast member to score a solo acting nomination at SAG, was never a frontrunner for the Supporting Actress prize. Her loss was a given but the defeat in Outstanding Cast suggests that the kind of affection you need to win the top prize just isn't there for the film. Or, at least the affection wasn't as strong as the pull for CODA's also adorable cast. Being an early frontrunner has its disadvantages. The two primary marks against any film that is out front early are these: First, you lose the 'new favourite' recency bias and second, you become a big target. Had CODA been considered an early frontrunner, it too might have had noisy detractors. But curiously, though it's an "older" film, having debuted over a year ago now, and a less successful one, financially, given that it was a very expensive purchase and barely registered at theaters before streaming, it feels both more successful and newer than Belfast, neither of which are true (!), since that intense frontrunner spotlight was never actually on it.
After the top SAG win you could arge that CODA is exactly where Belfast intended to be going into Oscar night, as the presumptive favourite among the block of voters that is mostly drawn to mainstream storytelling and the kind of "warm" sentimental family-friendly films that have been in short supply in recent years. There were a lot more of these films this past season than usual (you can also count King Richard in this group... and even C'mon C'mon if you're feeling generous) and CODA is now the top dog in that corner.
The losses for The Power of the Dog are less "it's over" concerning, since it's far more of an auteur piece, but they are still a 'perception' obstacle to overcome before final Oscar voting begins. Kirsten Dunst's quiet despairing performance always had a 'how to win?' problem in that it was up against the traditional awards-magnetism of Ariana DeBose's "Anita" role (which has led to both Tony and Oscar wins for other actresses before her). And as with many enduring reliable performers like Dunst, the danger is always that your gifts get taken for granted so sometimes the nomination is the reward.
Benedict Cumberbatch and Kodi Smit-McPhee's turns are by far the most lauded in their categories but critical awards and favour alone has never been Oscar-winning assurance. You need more than just the critics. Both men could lose their categories on Oscar night (Cumberbatch will given Will Smith's superstardom and long Hollywood history) but the jury is still out on Supporting Actor. Troy Kotsur could well be the sentimental favourite and the second deaf performer to win an Oscar, but on the other hand, Smit-McPhee is a revelation and key to his film's success. What's more CODA might have peaked at SAG, as other ensemble pictures havei in the past like Sideways, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hidden Figures, The Help, and American Hustle.
The Power of the Dog was not up for Outstanding Cast at SAG but that's never been a dealbreaker to win Best Picture. Of the past 10 top SAG winners, for example, only four have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars: Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, and Parasite. And of the past 10 Best Picture winners three were not nominated for Outstanding Cast at SAG: Nomadland, Greenbook, and Shape of Water. If The Power of the Dog wins Best Picture it will be most analagous to The Shape of Water statistically, leading the Oscar nominations, losing all individual categories at SAG, but boosted considerably by coming from a beloved director who was figuratively the star of the movie and who had never won the top prize.
So we're sticking with The Power of the Dog as our Best Picture prediction. Belfast has lost ground to CODA but the latter, being without Oscar nods in any visual or sound categories or director would be an extremely unusual Oscar Best Picture winner. In fact, since all current categories have been in place, no film has ever managed a win in Best Picture without either a director or an editing nomination... and winners usually have both. CODA definitely gained awards ground last night but its primary accomplishment, through SAG, wasn't taking out Power of the Dog, but defeating Belfast and bolstering the chance that Troy Kotsur would win an individual acting Oscar.
Agree? Disagree? Do tell in the comments.
Belfast, Punditry, SAG, The Power of the Dog
Reader Comments (33)
Thank God for the Succession win. What an awful list of winners.
CODA is a great movie, if totally formulaic and reminiscent of many other stories. But it's still better than Green Book.
My only hope is that Will Smith's name is not called out on Oscar night.
Yay for Chastain!!! Boo for Smith!!!
I am hoping POTD does better at the Oscars. I am rooting for Cumberbatch and Chastain.
I think POTD will do better at the Oscars.
It's amazing to me Chastain sustaind the season after that early release,naysayers over the make up plus poor box office and reviews,Very pleased she won the category but like last year it'll be a nail biter of a finish,that giggle/talk voice sealed it for me.
To me it's question of who makes sense
None of the films have BP so the films aren't loved by a wide branch so it's anyones game
Stewart obviously has the passion votes,Kidman is well liked but a 2nd for this okay turn,Colman just won over a legend so 2 seems a bit much that leaves Jessica the oppurtunity to squeeze through over a well loved Cruz in a career best turn.
Chastain is overdue well liked snubbed for 8 years
She overcame peoples prejudices about Tammy Faye to show a real human under the accent and make up something Kidman and Stewart failed to do and to a lesser extent GaGa and Hudson failed to do.
Nathaniel, your analysis is spot on. And I’m becoming resigned to the fact that one of my least favorite actors is going to triumph in a year when Garfield and Cumberbatch are doing some of their best work, Washington is more interesting, and Bardem is Bardem (I just love him onscreen, even in a meh film).
I think SAG can confirm a frontrunner (think The King's Speech or Argo), but usually not signal the emergence of a new one (think Little Miss Sunshine or Hidden Figures). CODA feels like the kind of thing they'd go for, but I can't imagine that this will do much to improve its odds of winning Best Picture, which I think are pretty slim.
Last night does seem to have fully entrenched Smith and DeBose as formidable frontrunners, and I think a loss for either would be a shock at this point. Kotsur feels safe for Supporting Actor, but even more than Smit-McPhee (so young), I wonder if Hinds the true dark horse in that race? He just seems to fit the profile of a Supporting Actor winner. Chastain takes the lead now for Actress, right? When Stewart wins Critics Choice chaos will come full circle!
I think this really helps CODA, which will also benefit from the preferential ballot, as I'm guessing there are many people whom Power of the Dog leaves cold. Yes,CODA didn't get editing or directing, but that's probably half because many people didn't see it. With this win, most will feel they should, and many of them will like it but not love it -- but they'll still like it more than Power of the Dog. So I think it's the main competitor.
Just have to hope that the Academy voters truly vote for the best & not get swayed by other things. The ‘these categories aren’t important’ craftsmen & non-acting guilds need to save the day…
I'd be inclined to predict CODA to go all the way if it had more Oscar love beyond just those two other nominations. Nonetheless, at this point, I think it's certainly better-positioned for the upset than BELFAST and WEST SIDE STORY, neither of which looks terribly likely to make a big precursors splash between now and Oscar night.
CODA is loathsome. Its SAG win is downright depressing. Even more depressing than the phrase - "Best Actor Oscar winner Will Smith"
I do think TPOTD will probably still win Best Picture at this point, but it will be the type of winner that only wins 3 or so Oscars (it feels a bit widely admired, but not widely loved). It definitely seems like a "spread the wealth" year with many different films honored.
I am so happy for Chastain and hope she finally wins an Oscar. I actually like all four SAG acting winners - Smith wouldn't be my choice, but I enjoyed his performance and I really liked King Richard.
A few thoughts…CODA could win BP on a regular ballot, but not on a preferential ballot…Ariana DeBose could have really solidified her Oscar win by paying tribute to Rita Moreno, bringing it full circle, but she didn’t (still think she’ll win, though)…Surprised people are still predicting Kodi. It’s literally impossible NOT to vote for Troy Kotsur. I tried on my SAG ballot, but it automatically changed it to him.
@ David Feldman
I voted for Kodi. When it came down to it, I couldn’t check any other box.
Agree. And I'm also here for a lonely and Unpopular boo for Chastain and a super Yes for Matlin
The Will Smith hate in this comment section is a bit cringe, honestly. Its a very good star performance by a major superstar who's been very famous and successful for a very long time, why wouldn't they give him the Oscar. There's been way more egregious wins in the last two decades than this. Garfield and Cumberbatch will win some day ,but not this year..
CODA winning Best Ensemble alone wouldn’t have made me think it was in contention for Best Picture, but the fact that it won both that and Supporting Actor shows that it’s clearly very well loved, at least among the actors. I still don’t think it’s anything more than a dark horse unless it wins PGA (and even then, I’d probably still predict Power of the Dog, but it would at least be an uncertainty going into Oscar night), but I agree that it has effectively put the nail in the coffin for Belfast’s chances.
I do, however, think Troy Kotsur is a lot more likely to win now. This newfound support for CODA will probably result in a win somewhere, and since it’s only up for 3 Oscars, Supporting Actor is by far its best chance to take one home. So I’m thinking Power of the Dog wins Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, maybe Original Score, and *maybe* (a bigger maybe) Cinematography. I’m not counting Kodi Smit-McPhee out or anything, but I do believe Kotsur is the slight frontrunner due to CODA’s showing with SAG.
I think Critics Choice will award Stewart which is gonna throw Best Actress into even more turmoil!
I think BFCA may award Stewart or Gaga, and of course BAFTA is irrelevant in Best Actress this year. However, I think now it comes down to Chastain (overdue, well-liked and hugely respected) vs. Kidman (older Academy voters likely love the film and her performance more than the SAG community). CODA will not come near winning BP, it's probably going to be Power of the Dog.
I do not understand the CODA love. It was cute and harmless (except all the gross seafood parts) and totally predictable, but there's nothing about that picture that belongs anywhere near the Oscars. How on earth is that paint-by-numbers script nominated when Tony Kushner is not? Kotsur and Matlin are certainly fabulous, but much of the rest of the cast was actively bad (especially those who had to speak, rather than sign, the clunky dialogue). The cranky music teacher was the second-worst performance I saw this year, only behind Jared Leto's Chef Boyardee impression. Representation matters and I'm very happy to see opportunities for deaf actors, but that cast as a whole winning an ensemble prize is puzzling.
King Richard is the only major blindspot I have for this year (other than Dune, but that's a genre I will not even try to connect with). I love Cumberbatch and Garfield so much this year, but Will Smith's speech was absolutely beautiful and genuine. They can go ahead and carve his name on the Oscar. I'll watch his film this week and hope he's half as good in the role as he was in picking up his SAG trophy.
Looking forward to where the Best Actress race is going! I'm not big on repeat winners unless they completely outdo themselves (which I wouldn't say for Kidman or Colman this year). I could get behind a Chastain win.
I hope it's now Chastain's to lose!
If the makeup team wins in the pre-show, it's likely...
But the lead-up with critics choice and the non-factor BAFTA shall be interesting.
My picks as Most Deserving are Jessica Chastain and Denzel. I just watched Zero Dark Thirty and Jessica was very, very good. The movie itself is a bit difficult at times, but Kathryn Bigelow does a good job of directing the story in the right direction, with a real cliff-hanger of an ending. This nomination/loss and similar for The Help, puts Jessica in the "paid her dues" category. I still see it's possible the Academy will pick someone else, but my money is on Jessica.
Denzel was really quite good and I love that movie. The staging is incredible, bleak and full of symbols. The costuming is also wonderful, very restrained, and that makes each little tweak mean more. Of course I think someone else will win (probably Benedict).
Beyond words happy for Jessica Chastain. I hope she goes all the way and wins the Oscar.
This is very much a Hidden Figures win...SAG can pat itself on the back for honoring this surprise hit with representational value and a very likable cast. But CODA didn't attract the kind of Academy attention that would put it in the running for Best Picture. I doubt it would make the Academy's top five.
I think having very little shot at Best Director or an acting win already hindered Belfast's chances—it hasn't looked like a real frontrunner for a long time. No cinematography nomination for a beautifully shot B&W film, no editing nomination? These are not the makings of a Best Picture winner whatever SAG did last night.
Agree with the consensus that CODA's win does not make it a Best Picture contender, and I think Nathaniel's point that Belfast is showing a lot of weakness is accurate... but it also doesn't feel like a Power of the Dog sweep is coming.
Given nothing else seems primed to knock POTD off in the top category (unless WSS or Belfast or DLU shock at the PGAs) it seems like we are headed for a "Shape of Water" type outcome where POTD wins Picture, Director and a couple below the line awards (maybe cinematography and score?), but Screenplay goes elsewhere and all the actors come up short and Dune winds up with most wins overall via technical strength.
Real question is if Belfast can avoid a shutout.
Agree with DK. CODA got a nice boost and a big industry prize last night but it's no where near the BP race. Even if it wins PGA (unlikely) I think it would follow a Little Miss Sunshine path which had more industry support. BSA will be its reward.
I've been for long thinking Belfast is the obvious frontrunner and that CODA is actually the challenger, not The Power of the Dog, which is respected but not unanimously loved with passion that Belfast and CODA have.
The Power of the Dog looks to me like The Revenant or The Irishman... it's more respected than actually loved. I might be wrong, of course, but on a preferential ballot, I can't see TPotD actually defeating crowdpleasers like Belfast and CODA, and I think that the war climate - WW3 in the making - would help to go to the lighter fare (CODA) rather than one that actually reminds of conflict (Belfast).
So I'd dare to say that after recent events... for the BP win...
1. CODA
2. Belfast
3. The Power of the Dog
4. King Richard
5. West Side Story
... I don't see anyone else with a shot, honestly
I watched Drive My Car this evening, completing the Best Picture nominees. My personal ranking, which is not in order of quality but in order of my reaction to the films:
Tier 1: Adoration
West Side Story
Drive My Car
Tier 2: Respect
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Don't Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tier 3: For this you snubbed tick, tick...BOOM!, Passing, The Lost Daughter, Spencer, Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World and The Tragedy of Macbeth?
CODA
Belfast
King Richard
So if any Oscar voters watch DMC and have a similar reaction to mine, it's not CODA that will be disrupting the race. (Mind you, I said "disrupting," not "winning.")
I think Nathaniel's right about Belfast - it just isn't a strong alternative to TPOD. I suspect, after the SAG win, the reception from the room, and Matlin's amazing speech, it's easy to voters turning to CODA if they need an alternative to the front runner.
I do think, however, the strong recpetion of CODA indicates that it won't go home empty handed. I think Kotsur, as I've thought for a while now, is the front runner for his category. His narrative is really clear and pulls at the heartstrings, and it's easy to see him claiming the trophy as a key win CODA. I suspect CODA would also be a darkhorse for screenplay if it wasn't up against TPOD and Drive My Car.
More than anything, the CODA win just indicates that during these dark times, people need films that can make them feel good. I think that's the biggest weakness against TPOD, even if the film has a strong sense of justice.
I've been feeling like Kotsur would likely win Supporting Actor all along. The Academy just hates awarding male actors under 30. There have only been five. Adrien Brody, the only Best Actor under 30. Heath Ledger which came from tragedy, Cuba Gooding Jr., George Chakiris and Timothy Hutton. Supporting Actor will be the place they award CODA.
I also think Smit-McPhee's loss might be Dunst's gain. They will want to award Power of the Dog at least one Acting award and Will Smith is a lock in Best Actor so Supporting Actress is the only place for Power of the Dog to win.
I think the CODA win and Marlee Matlin’s speech is going to get more voters to watch the film. I’m pretty confident Troy Kotsur wins after this. I don’t think CODA has enough support for Best Picture. It didn’t even make the final ballot for Original Song and music is such a driving force in the plot.
The SAG helps Jessica Chastain, for sure. I’m still pulling for Penelope Cruz but I’m on board with any of the nominees winning this time.
I don't know guys - there is something in the air. CODA is winning Best Picture. I know with only 3 nominations it does not make sense but it is going to do SO well on a preferential ballot. Think of all the #1, #2, #3, and #4 votes it's going to receive. And people more than ever want to feel something. CODA gives you all the feels. Just saying.
rami -- i dunno critcs choice is obsessed with trying to be predictive and they haven't even voted yet on the winners (the time frame kept getting pushed back) which means after SAG they might swing Chastain
Will Smith is about as good an actor as Harrison Ford, who, frankly should have at least one or two more Oscar nods under his belt than the lone one he got for WITNESS. He's also as good as Tom Cruise, who might have won for BORN ON THE 4TH OF JULY had Daniel Day Lewis not been on the ballot that year with a virtuoso turn in MY LEFT FOOT. But Smith isn't in the position Leonardo DiCaprio and Al Pacino were when they won their "overdue Oscars.". In a weak-to-middling year, Smith would deserve the win for KING RICHARD--it's certainly a very good performance--but this has been a very strong year and there are two more impressive performances on the ballot: Andrew Garfield and Benedict Cumberbatch. Of course, race plays into it, and I'll admit I'd think twice about voting for yet another white, British guy this year considering the history of Oscar So White, what with so many Black performers losing Oscars they should have won over the decades. Anyway, I could see it going three ways, and any of those ways is going to result in a lot of angry Tweeting over on that other platform.