Final Emmy Predictions: Limited Series/TV Movie and Acting Categories

By: Abe Friedtanzer, Chris James, Cláudio Alves, and Nathaniel Rogers

There's a competitive race afoot in the Limited Series category, which sports competitors like "Dopesick," "The White Lotus" and "Maid."

We’ve come to the end of Team Experience’s Emmy Awards predictions. As we discussed the past two days, the Drama and Comedy categories can often default to past nominees. With the Limited Series and TV Movie categories, nominating panels are dealing with blank slates each year. Over the past ten years, the concept of a Limited Series has gone from being a less-popular oddity to a popular way to tell the buzziest of stories. Just this year, we saw three different ripped from the headline tech shows across three streamers. It doesn’t have to be all dramas or true stories. Mike White used cringe comedy to create one of the most memorable pieces of TV this year with The White Lotus. There are no shortage of great programs to nominate, even if the number of slots may be less than its Drama and Comedy counterparts. Nominations for the 74th annual Emmy Awards will be announced at 8:30am on Tuesday, July 12th by Melissa Fumero and JB Smoove.

Some overall thoughts and Predictions from  Team Experience predicts after the jump...

Abe: I don’t think there’s ever been a slate this competitive before, and it will all boil down to how much critical praise equals Emmy love. For instance, are Inventing Anna and Pam & Tommy Emmy fare, or not? This will likely be a battle between Dopesick and The White Lotus, but it’s also possible that The Offer could be well-received or that any of the many shows in contention could bump some of the expected stronger players. Also, though we’re not including those categories here, the films in contention for Best TV Movie could finally break through in the acting categories for the first time in a few years. 

Chris: Despite the nominees being different year after year for Limited Series categories (by design), unoriginality exists in this branch too. It’s not that different from a problem that plagues the Academy more and more each year. Voters tend to only watch a few limited series and nominate them down the line for all categories. In fact, the supporting categories are usually only dominated by three or four programs. The main question for prognosticators is, “what shows will Emmys love most?” I think they’ll love The White Lotus and Dopesick in particular, while Maid and The Dropout could be dark horse winners if they overperform in crowded supporting categories. While there may be fan bases for other limited series, such as Gaslit or The Offer, I don’t think we’ll get lone nominees from them. I’m sad that The Dropout overshadowed WeCrashed, which I felt had stronger performances and a more consistent sense of outlandish tone. Still, I’m very excited to see Dopesick and The White Lotus to dominate, as both are terrific.

Cláudio: Every year, the Emmys feel more overstuffed despite the plethora of categories available. This is especially true of the limited series races, as more and more of these projects flood the season. Sometimes, there are so many that it feels like none of them has space to breathe and find its audience, the maximum potential for popularity. Moreover, the TV Academy seems to be following the vices of its theatrical brethren, embracing biopics and real-life stories with increasing mania. I'm trying to be optimistic with some of my predictions, but maybe that's a mistake. In other news, it'll be interesting to see if the Emmys embrace TV movies born out of series or if they prefer more eminently cinematic projects that landed here through matters of distribution rather than artistic intent. Finally, how is The White Lotus eligible here if there's already a second season in the works? The Emmys' ever-changing eligibility rules will forever confound me.

Nathaniel: Are The White Lotus and Dopesick still the frontrunners to win Limited Series? One of the curious things about this Emmy season is that the glut of last minute contenders does not appear to be helping them the way recency bias usually helps Oscar contenders; The stuff that premiered in 2021 still has more buzz! Of course we won't know until the nominations if this is a false perception or not. The most nail-biting "Limited Series" category is Best Actress. There are multiple award winning actresses in the running as well as a huge number of famous celebrities playing famous celebrities (awards voters love that) but there won't be room for all of them... or even half of them! Hoping against all odds that Michelle Pfeiffer places for The First Lady since it's the best work she's done in about 20 years. But the odds are unfortunately against her given the response to the series overall (despite her rave reviews) and the glut of former Oscar, SAG, Globe, and Emmy winners in the mix (Pfeiffer is a previous nominee for every major mainstream screen acting award, but she's never won any of them. Sigh).

NOTE: One thing to keep in mind in this category is the number of nominees allowed in each category. Due to less submissions, some Limited Series acting categories will have less nominees than their Drama and Comedy counterparts. See the breakdown below and more information here.

• 0 to 7 nominees in categories with 0 to 7 submissions through a different voting process

• 2 nominees in categories with 8 to 11 submissions

• 3 nominees in categories with 12 to 15 submissions

• 4 nominees in categories with 16 to 19 submissions

• 5 nominees in categories with 20 to 80 submissions

• 6 nominees in categories with 81 to 160 submissions

• 7 nominees in category with 161 to 240 submissions

• 8 nominees in categories with at least 241 submissions

Now onto the predictions:

"Maid" was a family affair, as breakout star Margaret Qualley starred alongside her mother, Andie Macdowell.Outstanding Limited Series (5 Nominees)

There were 61 submissions, so the nominee total is only five this year.

Unanimous Choices

• Dopesick (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Maid (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• The Staircase (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• The Dropout (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Lone Votes of Faith

• Under the Banner of Heaven (Abe)

HBO's Movie "The Survivor" could contend for Outstanding TV Movie and Lead Actor for Ben Foster.Outstanding TV Movie (5 Nominees)

There were 48 submissions, so the nominee total is only five this year.

Unanimous Choices

• The Survivor (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• The Fallout (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Ray Donovan: The Movie (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Split Decision

• Chip ‘n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers (Abe, Cláudio)

• Fresh (Abe, Chris)

Lone Votes of Faith

• The Sky is Everywhere (Nathaniel)

Oscar nominee Amanda Seyfried won raves for her portrayal of disgraced tech CEO Elizabeth Holmes.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series (6 Nominees)

There were 92 submissions, so the nominee total is six this year.

Unanimous Choices

• Amanda Seyfried - The Dropout (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Julia Garner - Inventing Anna (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Lily James - Pam and Tommy (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Jessica Chastain - Scenes from a Marriage (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

• Margaret Qualley - Maid (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)

Split Decision

• Julia Roberts - Gaslit (Chris, Nathaniel)

Lone Votes of Faith

• Jessica Beil - Candy (Abe)

• Toni Collette - The Staircase (Nathaniel)

• Claire Foy - A Very British Scandal (Cláudio)

• Michelle Pfeiffer - The First Lady (Cláudio)

One of the highlights of the recent SAG Awards was Michael Keaton's tearful speech. He may be making another speech at the Emmys for his role in "Dopesick."Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series (5 Nominees)

There were 64 submissions, so the nominee total is only five this year.

Unanimous Choices

• Colin Firth - The Staircase (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Andrew Garfield - Under the Banner of Heaven (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Michael Keaton - Dopesick (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Ben Foster - The Survivor (Abe, Chris, Nathaniel)

• Oscar Issac - Scenes from a Marriage (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

Split Decision

• Samuel L. Jackson - The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey (Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Raise a glass to Jennifer Coolidge, who soon may be celebrating her first Emmy nomination.Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series (7 Nominees)

There were 183 submissions, so the nominee total is only seven this year.

Unanimous Choices

• Jennifer Coolidge - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Kaitlyn Dever - Dopesick (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Andie MacDowell - Maid (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Connie Britton - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

• Laurie Metcalf - The Dropout (Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Split Decision

• Juliette Binoche - The Staircase (Abe, Cláudio)

• Alexandra Daddario - The White Lotus (Chris, Nathaniel)

• Daisy Edgar-Jones - Under the Banner of Heaven (Abe, Cláudio)

Lone Votes of Faith

• Rosario Dawson - Dopesick (Nathaniel)

• Anika Noni Rose - Maid (Nathaniel)

• Juno Temple - The Offer (Abe)

• Mare Winningham - Dopesick (Chris)

One of the standout performances from "The White Lotus" was Murray Bartlett, who played the overeager hotel manager Armond, trying to stifle his addictions and urges.Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series (7 Nominees)

There were 232 submissions, so the nominee total is only seven this year.

Unanimous Choices

• Naveen Andrews - The Dropout (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

• Murray Bartlett - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Quite Probable

• Steve Zahn - The White Lotus (Abe, Chris, Cláudio)

Split Decision

• O-T Fagbenle - The First Lady (Abe, Cláudio)

• Matthew Goode - The Offer (Abe, Nathaniel)

• William H. Macy - The Dropout (Chris, Cláudio)

• Peter Sarsgaard - Dopesick (Chris, Cláudio)

• Michel Stuhlbarg - Dopesick (Cláudio, Nathaniel)

Lone Votes of Faith

• Gil Birmingham - Under the Banner of Heaven (Nathaniel)

• Jake Lacy - The White Lotus (Chris)

• Burn Gorman - The Offer (Abe)

• Will Poulter - Dopesick (Nathaniel)

• Nick Robinson - Maid (Chris)

• Shea Whigham - Gaslit (Abe)

• Sam Worthington - Under the Banner of Heaven (Nathaniel)

Who do you think will be nominated for the Limited Series & TV Movie Emmys? Which performers or shows do you wish were getting more attention? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[James from Ames]

I really hope the team here is wrong and that Station Eleven gets *some* nomination love. I know it came out in December, but I hope it hasn't sunk in nominators' memories the way it has with the TFE crew. That miniseries was the best thing I saw for a good six months, and runs rings around several of the shows mentioned above.

On other news, I'm hoping with Nathaniel that Gil Birmingham snags a nominations for Under the Banner of Heaven. He was the best thing about that series.

[G.Shaq]

so many good options.
Julia Roberts gave me everything I needed in Gaslit. I hope she's nominated.
i thought Dan Stevens and Betty Gilpin did fine work as well.
Murray Bartlet and Jennifer Coolidge must win. It's their time.
Michelle Pfeiffer was handing out acting classes one scene after another - god bless.
I don't know if Anatomy of a scandal is eligible, but I thought it was quite gripping. Rupert Friend I thought was impeccable.

[Aq. H]

I do believe there will be six nominees in Lead Actor as, per Emmy rules, since Lead Actress has six, the corresponding category (Lead Actor) is increased so they match (they change rules so often one never knows).

[Corey Eubanks]

I'm also here to champion Gil Birmingham for Under the Banner of Heaven. He took the thankless task of being the non-mormon viewer's way into the story and gave a terrific performance. I knew so many guys just like that back in the 80s! (As a fan of the book--read it twice--I was lukewarm on the series as a whole).

And, anyone who watched Gaslit would have Shea Whigham up there in Unanimous. Lots of great performances there, but he defined the bonkers batshit tone of the series so perfectly.

[Duncan]

Feels like about the right top 5-6 for Miniseries, give or take passion votes for Station Eleven, or Emily-in-Paris-style widespread viewership over consistent quality votes for Inventing Anna or 1883.

The likely Best Actor in a Miniseries field feels short on sure contenders outside of Keaton and Firth. I'm thinking it's possible Himesh Patel sneaks in for Station Eleven, since I don't imagine Garfield, Foster, Jackson, or Isaac have an awful lot of passion for their shows.

Best Actress, I think you may be underrating Collette (respected actress + likely series nominee) and Sarah Paulson, who is a name-check actress in prosthetics in the third season of a show that previously won Limited Series twice.

Supporting Actor is a crapshoot, you've got the right top two obviously but past them any of about fifteen people could slip in. The darkhorse predictions on Birmingham and Worthington feel smart, as do predictions on Poulter and Robinson (this category has been skewing younger in recent years, especially last year with every nominee under 40). I also have a hunch on Sam Waterston landing for The Dropout, since he's a respected actor who gets quite a strong arc across the last stretch of the show. At this point, I can't imagine why you'd predict Fagbenle to survive his series' dismal reception, and beyond name+series recognition, I'm shocked Sarsgaard has had any traction for Dopesick when I can't recall a single beat of his performance.

Supporting Actress again feels surprisingly open beyond Coolidge and to a lesser degree Dever. Andie McDowell to me feels like the likeliest assumed-safe-surprise-snub this year, in the vein of Marielle Heller for Queen's Gambit or Tim Blake Nelson for Watchmen. Performances that tend to surprise in these categories in recent years are often people of colour (even those who pop briefly but aren't in all of the show) a la Moses Ingram, Jovan Adepo, Adina Porter, Letitia Wright and most of the ensemble cast of When They See Us. With that in mind, I feel like people are underrating Anika Noni Rose, Danielle Deadwyler for Station Eleven, and Natasha Rothwell to leapfrog some of the more widely predicted frontrunners. Also don't count out Edie Falco, an Emmy favourite last nominated for a Law & Order spin-off nobody talked about, now playing Hilary Clinton with a massive stand-out episode in American Crime Story.

[Lucky]

The White Lotus came out one year ago this day and I'm so happy it's being considered. Barlett, Coolidge and Mike White really deserve it.

[Pam]

I am totally on board with Nathaniel's vote for Will Poulter in DOPESICK. His performance reminds me of a idealistic young man I once knew at a successful commercial real estate firm. He was so eager to learn the biz and rise to the top, and then got seduced by the older brokers' frat-boy ways, spending most of their working hours watching porn, snorting coke, and day trading. Tragic.

I am hoping for a DOPESICK win for show, Keaton, Dever, and Poulter. I would put Natasha Rothwell for THE WHITE LOTUS over Britton. And I would be happy with either Qualley or Seyfried for Best Actress--their performances were off-the-chart fantastic.

[NATHANIEL R]

Pam -- Rothwell ABSOLUTELY deserves a nomination. White lotus woiuld not be such a masterwork if that Coolidge/Rothwell duet weren't so perfect.

I too love Dopesick but i'm dreaeding the Stuhlbarg nomination I'm predicting because I think he's actively bad in it constantly underlining his character's evil and socioipathic agenda. I think he's much better in The Staircase though a couple of performances aside i've never been able to jump on the Stuhlbarg train.

[rrrich7]

Just a few notes from me - i don't seem to have watched a lot of Emmy nominees and i'm not sure why - but won't elaborate because why?

A big YES to Colin Firth and Toni Collette for The Staircase. One of the best "murder mysteries" of the last few years.

And Yes for Edie Falco for American Crime Story. She actually was very believable as Hillary.

[Paranoid Android]

Some thoughts/notes:

- Very little love for Hamish Linklater in "Midnight Mass." He's scored career-best reviews and had a few critics citations, so would not surprise me to see him show up.

- Is Toni Collette a lead? Hadn't seen if that's how they were campaigning her, but she has about a quarter of the screen time as Colin Firth, if that.

- I also thought "White Lotus" was an ongoing series.. isn't Jennifer Coolidge in season 2? Or is she just playing a new role a la "American Horror Story."

- Ditto the above love for "Station 11," although no one in the cast seems to have gotten enough love to stand out. But Himesh Patel is tops for sure, as is Mackenzie Davis.

- I hope Pfeiffer makes it. The mastectomy episode alone is one of the best things she's ever done.

[Peter]

Genuinely shocked and confused Station Eleven is this far off the nomination conversation. On quality it should be a no-brainer for Series, Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actress (Deadwyler). I mean I love Laurie Metcalf and Connie Britton but come on... these are roles they play in their sleep.

[NATHANIEL R]

Paranoid -- i would say that Toni Collette is a lead. Screentime isn't everything but she does appear in every episode and the story is very much about the two of them.

[Joe G.]

I really hope Julia gets in. Her series never had buzz, but it feels like the type of thing where, if voters watched, then she should be fine.

The White Lotus feels like a real gamble. Is HBO giving it a hard push? I think Bartlett and Coolidge are safe, mostly because they were good and because of their status as vets who have put in their dues. While I think Britton could easily score a nom, I do hope voters don't overlook Rothwell. What Coolidge does wouldn't work if she didn't have such a sharp screen partner.

I wouldn't be shocked if Julia Garner and Lily James miss. Though voters do love nominating series regulars when they dip into movies and mini-series, did anyone like her show? I think Toni Collette is safe.