Oscar Volley: Beyond the locks, Best Picture is hard to predict

Team Experience is discussing each Oscar category in the lead up to the nominations. Here's Nathaniel Rogers, Cláudio Alves and Nick Taylor to talk Best Picture...

EDITORS - NOTE. THIS DISCUSSION WAS HELD OVER A TWO+ WEEK STRETCH WHERE A LOT OF THINGS HAPPENED. SO THINGS SHIFT WHILE WE'RE TALKING...

 NATHANIEL: Hello teammates. I thought I'd throw you a little unexpected curveball in our last volley. Rather than starting with frontrunners or longshots, let's talk philosophies of selection for a brief moment. When the AFI selects their list annually (depressingly reading like Oscar predictions) the guiding principle is. film that are "culturally and artistically representative of this year’s most significant achievements in the art of the moving image. When the Library of Congress does their annual retroactive National Film Registry list they choose based on "cultural, historic or aesthetic importance to preserve the nation’s film heritage."

That cultural / aesthetic double-side strikes me a LOT like the very first year of the Oscars when there were two separate Best Picture categories " Outstanding Picture (which went to Wings) and Unique and Artistic Picture (which went to Sunrise) .If we want to get really reductive about it -- which we should so that this conversation doesn't go 10,000 words -- it also strikes me a lot like Commerce vs. ART which has always been the tension of Hollywood itself and by extension, the Oscars…

I don't want to harp on this too long lest I sound like this intro is a set up that I think the Best Picture battle is going to be between Top Gun: Maverick and TÁR. It obviously isn't though I'd love to hear Lydia Tár perform Oscar punditry.

CLÁUDIO: How would the last few seasons have played out if the Academy had maintained the system of their inaugural year? Would we have had CODA and The Power of the Dog as our 2021 champions, Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 before them, and so on? That could be an idea for a future write-up, but I better stop now unless I go off on a tangent and we reach that dreaded 10,000-word count.

A more apt takeaway from your intro might be that the Academy means to combine these two philosophies when giving out their main prize, finding the right balance between artistry and commerce, perchance innovation and tradition. But, of course, that's not to say they're good at striking the right chord.

Indeed, this year might offer one of the few times when all major contenders feel as if they're somewhere in the middle of those ideologies. At least in their ambition, if not their execution. Then again, that's assuming it comes down to The Fabelmans vs. The Banshees of Inisherin vs. Everything Everywhere All At Once. As last year showed us, even this late, the eventual Oscar champions may not yet be evident. 

Still, we're here to discuss nomination predictions and winning bets. Apart from those three, I'd say the paragons of commercial appeal feel safest – Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water – while everyone else is in a more precarious position. Would you agree, Nick? 

NICK: My first thoughts are to how a lot of that discourse seems to have manifested itself via the Picture/Director split that the Academy’s been very open to the past ten years. On the one hand, it’s nice to imagine that voters are making discerning choices about what good direction is relative to what makes a good movie, but these splits do often convey the sense of Metropolis’s powerfully stated but vague head vs heart bullshit. Yes, I saw some of the most impressive filmmaking of the year, but which films saw me??? I agree with Cláudio that this year’s crop has a lot of contenders that seemingly fulfill those requirements, and hopefully the box office success and overall accessibility of those films will stave off too many “who actually likes movies?!” jokes during the ceremony. The cultural relevance aspect will be shining bright this year, god willing. 

I agree with Cláudio’s predicted top 5, but I wanna ask about what seems to be a very volatile variable this year: Which (if any) international films are going to break into the Best Picture lineup? Prior to tonight, I had fully banked on Decision to Leave being that crossover film this year, and though it’s showing up fairly consistently in the International Film race, is it on track to win there, let alone make BP? Meanwhile, RRR has been doing about as well as it could despite not being India’s International Film selection, to include S. S. Rajamouli being a consistent presence among Best Director winners/runners-up with major critics’ orgs. Is RRR actually going to happen, in a year already packed with action films and multicultural skirmishes? Is there another non-English film waiting in the wings? Or will the collective foreign-ness of so many nominees (Chinese-centered multiverses, Jewish-American life, the Na’vi, the Irish, Triangle of Sadness’s European melting pot, women who talk) mean we don’t get an actual foreign language film in our final lineup? 

NATHANIEL: Nick, that's a great question about the international and multi-ethnic flavor of so many of the big movies. I do think that is a problem for the international titles which usually have a greater chance of capturing the attention of voters who want variety in the best picture flavors and not just biopics and Important American Stories. The other problem is box office and media attention since international films have had a very rough go of it when it comes to the former (as recently discussed on the site) and the media hasn't fully latched on to a single international title (which usually helps voters focus). In short earlier in the year I thought Decision to Leave was going to be a force but I no longer do. It remains popular but it hasn't dominated with critics awards or the media due to the love for RRR, EO, and Return to Seoul (among others).

I think RRR is lots of fun but I've always thought it was an extreme longshot at the Oscars even with all the critical praise and fan FYC'ing. Academy members don't often go for big broad action pieces, let alone action films which tilt towards "so fun! rather than "ooh, drama!". I'm trying to think of the last one. Was it Raiders of the Lost Ark forty-one years ago? And when it comes to "fun" + "action" in 2022, I don't see how Everything Everywhere All At Once won't be scratching that itch for any and all voters who are so inclined. I'm fully aware that RRR has a important through-line but I also don't believe that's why people have obsessed over it. I think the reason is entirely the muscular joyful earnest verve of the filmmaking. As a lover of good action cinema who doesn't discuss that kink often due to how horrifically generic most Hollywood movies are in that regard, it's been a rewarding season. We actually got THREE movies with consistently exciting action-filmmaking (EEAAO, Avatar: The Way of Water, RRR). Some people would add Top Gun: Maverick and claim FOUR. So a rewarding season in that regard since usually the best we can hope for is one or maybe two if we're lucky indelibly kinetic beats in the lengthy running times of action-filled "blockbusters" which are otherwise full of noise and fury signifying nothing. 

ANYWAY. Speaking of exciting action. I'm trying to imagine a killer setpiece where Elvis, Babylon, Tár, Triangle of Sadness, RRR, Women Talking, All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion, The Woman King, Pinocchio, She Said, Nope, Decision to Leave, and every other movie with Oscar dreams is tossed into a ring and only five can make it out alive to join the widely expected top quintet. At this very moment I'm picturing Lydia Tár taking out rivals with grandiose cutthroat swings of her conductor's stick. Pass the popcorn.

CLÁUDIO: Oh, Miss Linda would slay the competition, though Pinocchio can always come back from the dead, so he's got an advantage. There's also Nanisca to contend with, but I assume her noble spirit would be a hindrance against the bloodthirsty self-obsession of Field's chaotic heroine. Abigail from Triangle of Sadness also has the ability to survive for long, maybe catching the canceled maestro unaware with a rock to the head. Thinking on the subject, why don't we go televisual rather than action movie-oriented and stuck representatives from every contender on an island, Survivor-style? Or should we go The White Lotus route instead? Mike White, get on it, please. If not him, let's get Mama Ru on the job and have these queens Lip Sync for their Lives.

Getting back to semi-serious punditry instead of fantasy TV, your comment about the action movie overdose of this awards season made me think about another over-represented model in the present race. I'm talking, of course, about the dreaded 'love letters to cinema.' Will the Academy take the bait, or will they grow tired of these cinephile stylings like so many spectators seem to be? The Fabelmans is locked for widespread recognition, and I have a hunch about the Last Film Show's chances in the International Film category. But, beyond them, I'm like Meryl's Sister Aloysius – I have doubts. I have such doubts. 

The main focus of this uncertainty is Damien Chazelle's Babylon which, earlier last month, felt poised for a slew of nominations across the board. However, its poor box office performance and divisive critical reception indicate a trickier path toward Oscar glory. Will this go the way of La La Land or First Man? It's hard to tell at this point, though some might argue my positing of the film as a love letter to cinema is erroneous. Is it hate mail, instead? Is that a boon for its awards prospects or a handicap? As one of the resident Babylon skeptics, please enlighten me on the subject, dear Nick. 

NICK: Real quick, lemme add The Woman King to that list of consistently exciting action-filmmaking vying for BP attention. Less quick on fantasy drama (but just as important), I think the best thing we as the internet could do for TÁR’s awards chances is try to actually cancel Cate Blanchett. This is now the second high-profile lesbian character she’d ridden to an Oscar nomination while the likes of Cynthia Nixon, Jodie Foster, Clea Duvall, and [insert your fave here] are left stranded in alleyways, begging for scraps??? I think it’s time we hold her personally accountable for this grievous injustice. It’s as smart as well-articulated a plan as the writing around the Juilliard incident and fallout - ie, not very much - and it’ll be funny, which is always important. Also, can you imagine Cynthia Nixon in this role? I’m gagging.

Now to Babylon. I can’t say I’ve warmed up to its less appealing provocations, but I do appreciate its general gutsiness after sitting with it for a few weeks. It’s quite proudly hate mail to Hollywood, albeit dressed up in the kinds of period trappings and high-volume excess that make it easy to nominate. I’m actively rooting against it showing up Cinematography, given the state of its lighting in so many key scenes, but I honestly suspect it might have the chutzpah to go all the way. Maybe Babylon will be this year’s Don’t Look Up, where Chazelle’s baseline conviction, palpably big swings, and (uneven) technical brio, all fueling such grotesquery and ire, attract enough supporters to marshal it into key categories, but also enough repudiators to keep it from going as far as some think it will. Either way, I suspect The Fabelmans probably has a bigger hold on the “movies about movies” crowd, though they’re arguably taking such different approaches that it might not matter much.

How does all of that track for you two? And are there any other contenders whose odds you’re really curious about? If we’ve established a hard top 5 for BP, who else is fighting for the last slots? I for one am looking forward to seeing how far TÁR, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking are able to go, not just in Best Picture but up and down Oscar’s ballot. Who else are y’all predicting? 

NATHANIEL: I am still predicting Babylon for the reasons you cite, despite the polarized response. The internet has this weird habit of acting like Rotten Tomato Scores are important for Oscar play when it's patently untrue (see Don't Look Up, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and probably a couple of other post-BP expansion examples). That said, I'm not confident about the prediction which is why i listed so many titles as being in the bloody battle for those presumed open slots.

I appreciate Babylon's go-for-broke energy even if i think the execution is too unfocused to earn the "Best" adjective. Plus, I'm on the record as wondering how Damien Chazelle has earned the right to make such a huge Hate letter to Hollywood. Any way you look at it he's had a charmed career. His sophomore feature blew up and snagged major Oscar nominations taking him from a no name director to the A list. His third feature was a unexpected ginormous blockbuster that also won Oscars including his own,  the youngest director of all time to take the Oscar.  His underrated fourth feature ran into a bit of trouble with audiences and awards voters but is generally well regarded as technically virtuosic. For his fifth feature with an apparent blank check, it's head-scratching that he wants to violently gnosh on the hand feeding him.

Why? But also, why now? (That's mostly a rhetorical question. I'm not sure Chazelle would even know the answer) 

I do think Women Talking, Elvis, Babylon, Tár, and maybe Triangle of Sadness look good for the five open slots but it would be foolish to think my predictions will be 100% perfect so one or two of them might fall. I'm curious as to whether y'all think the Academy will embrace Glass Onion (I go back and forth on this, mostly because it IS a comedy. My other question is whether its major showing on the shortlists means that All Quiet on the Western Front is actually widely seen enough to snag a coveted Best Picture nomination?

CLÁUDIO: Your comparison to Don't Look Up made me reconsider Babylon's chances. As of now, I'm predicting it for Best Picture, though I'd consider Elvis to be firmly above it, with Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness potentially at the same level of likelihood. That leaves only one spot, and after the shortlists, it's All Quiet in the Western Front to lose. I have a plethora of justifications for that conclusion.

First, TÁR feels like the kind of film that gets a Director nomination without a Best Picture placement in this modern age of Oscar history. I imagine the prickly character study embodies many of the same qualities and handicaps shared by Another Round, Cold War, and Foxcatcher. In other words, while people keep speculating on what will be the non-English film to get that yearly artsy festival-premiered directing citation, I predict TÁR gets that honor despite its familiar idioms.

Then, we have the matter of what will be Netflix's Best Picture representative. After its smashing performance in the shortlists, it seems enough voters across the various branches have seen the war film for it to be a threat. Moreover, Glass Onion - its biggest competition within Netflix's slate - must contend with comedy bias and the fact Triangle of Sadness is also in the running. Again, we return to the matter of similarities between projects. 

For all its humor, the Östlund flick feels insulated from anti-comedy prejudice by its Palme d'Or and aura of importance. Part of why Benoit Blanc's latest adventure is enchanting so many is that it's a lark that doesn't take itself too seriously. While a boon for audience enjoyment, the Academy prefers art pre-packaged with a sense of gravitas, even when it's tempered by satirical intent.

But of course, I'm a pessimist, so my belief that the Cannes champion has it in the bag might stem from dread rather than logic. Maybe I should be more hopeful and imagine a Glass Onion triumph. Am I crazy, Nick?

NICK: All of those are salient points on behalf of All Quiet on the Western Front. I do think Glass Onion has some kind of shot, given how much goodwill and popularity it already accrued since Knives Out was released. It's got plenty of eyes on it, the evident splendor of its added Netflix money means it'll be competing in a few craft categories along with its slam-dunk Adapted Screenplay slot and Janelle Monae (deservedly if fraudulently) duking it out among twenty other women for a Supporting Actress slot. Glass Onion's status as an unabashed crowdpleaser might overcome some of the anti-comedy bias, but we also have a couple crowd pleasers in the running with EEAAO and Avatar: The Way of Water, which also have box office bonafides Netflix bizarrely denied itself. In other words, it'll make about as much sense to me if it shows up as if it doesn't.

I'm more optimistic about TÁR's odds than you are, Cláudio, although I agree with your logic. Maybe I'm just riding high on how much better it's been doing than some of the initial predictions around its chances as nothing more than an Actress-Screenplay two-hander. Maybe it's been cruelly shut out of Best Original Song, but otherwise it could have either a really great showing or a vaguely disappointing one on nomination morning. I think Triangle’s in a similar position, honestly, especially given that many of them are fighting to show in the same categories. 

I feel this volley coming to a close soon, but before we get to our predictions and the flexing of our own good taste, I wanna ask about Women Talking, which we’ve been mentioning at the periphery of this discussion for a while without fully centering it. What do we think of its chances right now? I’m guessing we have to wait til SAG for a real sense of how strong its odds are, but its underwhelming showing at the Globes really did surprise me. Then there’s the somewhat-anecdotal stuff- the color grading debate, the seeming lack of an acting MVP to nominate amidst so many ensemble prizes, Polley’s status as the likeliest woman to make it into the Directing lineup. Am I getting jumpy about a blip on its road to success, or is this the first sign that it might not go all the way? 

NATHANIEL: Okay, we took an unexpected 9 day break in this conversation (my bad!)  and a lot has happened in the interim. 9 days is likea full year in buzz (if the month in question is January) so in that week long stretch of time, the Globes happened and several guilds (including the Screen Actors Guild) named their nominees. The big takeaway of the past week is that Babylon is in free-fall, Women Talking has descended from its presumed sure thing status to something closer to the wild card land of Glass Onion and The Whale (though it's hilarious to mention those three side-by-side as if they have anything in common!). And Triangle of Sadness also seems to have lost the momentum its Globe nominations gave it... though maybe it was never going to be a SAG contender anyway and we shouldn't doubt it? It's all blissfully fuzzy which is just where we like our Oscar race since it's more fun to predict that way.

While GALECA, the Society for LGBTQ+ entertainment journalists, is not any more of an Oscar precursor than any other critics groups I found it fascinating that it was nominated for Best Film there with no other nominations. What does that mean exactly? Spielberg's auto-fiction has performed somewhat more wobbly in precursors than people expected after its Toronto bow, it has always manages to stay right in the thick of things. But for some reason I'm still doubtful it has any Oscar wins in it. 

Before I ramble long enough to lose readers let's move to predictions. What are you each ccurrently thinking. Let's divide up by like so and rank them depending on our confidence. I'm going

LOCKS

01) The Banshees of Inisherin
02) Everything Everywhere All At Once
03) The Fabelmans
04) Top Gun Maverick
05) Avatar The Way of Water

NOT QUITE LOCKED BUT CLOSE ENOUGH

06) Elvis
07) TÁR

THIS NEXT BATCH OF SIX FEELS VERY "TIED" TO ME REALLY SO...PINS AND NEEDLES

08) All Quiet on the Western Front
09) Women Talking
10) The Whale

... which would make the next three the "spoilers" and they all feel possible

11) Triangle of Sadness
12) Glass Onion
13) Babylon

I PERSONALLY DON'T BELIEVE A BEST PICTURE NOM IS THE CARDS BUT THEY'LL WIN SOME VOTES

14) Black Panther Wakanda Forever
15) The Woman King
16) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
17) She Said
18) RRR
19) Aftersun
20) Nope

CLÁUDIO: I was just talking about TÁR’s fate as a “Best Director sans Best Picture” situation but it seems that I was wrong. Todd Field’s movie keeps amassing support from key precursors, solidifying its place in the race. So, it seems I’ll have to concede and finally add it to my predicted 10. Here’s where I’m at, right now:

LOCKS

01) Everything Everywhere All At Once
02) The Banshees of Inisherin
03) The Fabelmans
04) Top Gun: Maverick
05) Avatar: The Way of Water

HIGHLY LIKELY

06) Elvis
07) All Quiet on the Western Front
08) TÁR

PREDICTED ON THE BASIS OF PURE PESSIMISM

09) Triangle of Sadness
10) The Whale

VERY POSSIBLE SPOILERS

11) Babylon
12) Women Talking
13) Glass Onion

MAJOR VOTE-GETTERS, BUT NOT ENOUGH

14) Aftersun
15) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
16) The Woman King
17) RRR
18) Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
19) She Said
20) Bardo

NICK: As someone who was far more confident in TÁR's chances, I'm pretty delighted by its continued ascendency in this category. Oh, what if The Fabelmans only wins Best Director? Wouldn't it be crazy if we had that two years in a row? Feels like we're all in roughly similar places regarding the state of the race, with the only question being which films will muscle their ways into the last three slots. Right now, my predicted lineup would be:

LOCKS

01) Everything Everywhere All At Once
02) The Banshees of Inisherin
03) The Fabelmans
04) Top Gun: Maverick
05) Avatar: The Way of Water

HIGHLY LIKELY

06) TÁR
07) Elvis

PREDICTED TO IRRITATE CLÁUDIO

08) Triangle of Sadness

VERY POSSIBLE SPOILERS FOR SLOTS 8-10

09) All Quiet on the Western Front
10) Women Talking
11) The Whale
12) Babylon
13) Glass Onion

I REALLY HOPE THEY HAVE A SHOT

14) Aftersun
15) The Woman King
16) RRR
17) Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

GONNA GET VOTES, BUT NOT ENOUGH

18) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
19) She Said
20) Nope

All of the Volleys

Best Actress -with Nick & Eurocheese
Best Supporting Actress - with Mark & Baby Clyde
Best Supporting Actor - with Eric & Chris
Best Director - with Eric Blume & Glenn Dunks

Best Original Screenplay - with Nathaniel & Abe
Best Adapted Screenplay - with Nathaniel & Chris
Best Cinematography - with Eric and Chris
Best Film Editing - with Ben & Nick
Best Costume Design - with Cláudio & Elisa
Best Production Design - with Eurocheese & Nick

categories that have since been narrowed down with finalist lists

Best International Film - with Elisa & Abe
Best Makeup & Hairstyling - with Nathaniel & Elisa 
Best Original Song - with Eurocheese & Baby Clyde
Best Original Score - with Mark & Juan Carlos

Comments

[Peter]

I would like to understand why Nope never got any traction in the Oscar race. It was a big box office success and has showed up all over critics top 10 year end lists. Kaluuya is an Oscar winner and Yuen a former nominee, Keke Palmer has won some critics awards this year for a very popular performance. Obviously Peele received a lot of awards attention, deservedly, for Get Out just a few years ago. It wasn’t personally my favorite film of the year, but given its pedigree and overall reception, what gives?

My final predictions:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun Maverick
Banshees of Inisherin
Fabelmans
Elvis
Avatar 2
All Quiet on the Western Front
Tar
Babylon
The Woman King as the surprise 10th choice

[Mr Ripley79]

My picks

Top Gun Maverick
Tar
The Whale
Banshees of Inisherin
Fabelmans
Woman King
EEAAO
Elvis
AQOTWF
Glass Onion

[jules]

All Quiet on the Western Front is such a meh movie. I can see how the rest of these - even those I don't like (which at least provoked a strong reaction in me) - would attract votes, but that really doesn't belong, especially compared to the other foreign-language films nominated for Best Picture.

[David Feldman]

I wince when I see people say “yeah, but such-and-such wasn’t that great” or whatever.

I’ve been following the Oscars religiously since the 80s and I can tell you that the single worst thing you can do for your predictions is actually see the movies. (I don’t recommend this as a lifestyle choice, but there it is.) Follow the precursors, read reviews, study the history. Your own opinions are irrelevant and will f***k everything up.

[Wae Mest]

BABYLON is what might be called a poisoned love letter. He's clearly ripping the industry out of affection - see the controversial ending. But he's also aware how prevalent abuses of all kinds are, and wants to show it. Why not? Those abuses continue today. That being said I can't imagine it gets a BP nod as it's been so divisive.

[Edwin]

Coupled with its BAFTA showing and the fact that it made a bunch of Oscar shortlists, I’d move All Quiet on the Western Front up to the “likely” category. At the very least, it’s a lot safer than Triangle of Sadness is. I also don’t think Avatar is a lock at all. I’m still predicting it, but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see it excluded. It’s really only a lock in two other categories (Visual Effects and Sound), and while it could still get as many as 7 or 8 nominations, I do think it’s equally likely it only gets 3 or 4.

For better or worse (I still haven’t seen it, so I can’t say personally), I feel like Women Talking is going to end up with just a single nomination for Adapted Screenplay. I had it pegged as a potential frontrunner early in the season, but the precursors just haven’t shown up for it.

My surprise prediction this year in this category is RRR. It seems like it’s been getting a lot of media coverage in the past few weeks, and people in the industry seem to love it.

My final predictions in order of confidence:

LOCKS
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Fabelmans
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Top Gun: Maverick

PROBABLE
5. Tar
6. Elvis
7. All Quiet on the Western Front

POSSIBLE BUT VULNERABLE
8. Avatar: The Way of Water
9. The Whale
10. RRR
11. Women Talking
12. Glass Onion
13. Babylon
14. Triangle of Sadness

DARK HORSES
15. Aftersun
16. The Woman King