Will history repeat itself?
Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 11:16AM Please welcome new contributor Danny Cox.
by Danny Cox
At this moment, the fate of the Best Supporting Actress Oscar is the least settled of the acting categories. Will Jamie Lee Curtis ride the wave of her SAG win? Does Kerry Condon’s BAFTA upset suggest wanting to award at least one actor from the much lauded film? Or does the earliest front runner, the winner of the Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice Award, Angela Bassett rally back around to take home the prize? While there is definitely momentum for both Curtis and Condon, one thing Bassett has over the two of them is a strange parallel to a former win. If Bassett pulls this off, this would not be the first time a highly respected actor gets a late career nomination for a film that is popular with the general public in a category with split competition. Does that sound familiar?
If Bassett wins, it would be Jack Palance in City Slickers all over again. Unexpected comparison I know, but hear me out...
Jack Palance in City Slickers
As people attuned to the Oscar’s regular patterns know, it’s common for an actor to win because it’s 'their time'. This may be after a series of nominations and no wins in succession or simply honoring someone that has been around for a while with a spotlight role. It’s the latter case as far as Palance and Bassett are concerned,both nominated early in their careers (Palance for Sudden Fear and Shane, Bassett for What’s Love Got to Do With It) decades before a later career nomination.
Both actors also had career revivals at the time of their nominations. Palance had appeared in three late 80s blockbusters with Young Guns, Tango & Cash, and Tim Burton’s Batman leading into the hit comedy City Slickers. This past decade has provided a major boost for Bassett with her recurring presence on television in the various American Horror Story seasons, her leading role in 911, and Emmy nominated turns in Master of None and The Black Lady Sketch Show. She has also had standout moments in widely seen and respected movies with Mission Impossible: Fallout, Pixar’s Soul, and the triple Oscar winner Black Panther. The collective nostalgia and reenergized appreciation for a career combined with a sense of simply wanting to award a particular person likely helped Palance pull off his win and may be a good sign for Bassett.
The narrative around a performer is key, but that narrative is nothing without the floor to stand on and there are some surprising similarities to Palance’s Curly and Bassett’s Ramonda. Both are true supporting performances: only in a few scenes but making the most of their moments. In each film they are the characters who leave the most impact, Curly imparting life wisdom to Billy Crystal’s character and Ramonda having the big “have I not suffered enough?” speech that stops the film cold in the best possible way. They come in at the center of the movie, pull all the gravity to them, and to make their roles yet more impactful: they die. A simple but effective emotional tug at the heartstring, kill the supporting character and give more weight to that character for the rest of the film and the performance itself.
City Slickers then and Black Panther Wakanda Forever now were also huge hits outside of Oscar discussions. They are the kinds of films that voters were likely to see without the pretense of award season. That the performances were nominated at all suggests they truly resonated with audiences and might, too, with voters.
Often when the Oscars take a swing and nominate an actor in a not so typical “Oscar film,” the nomination is considered the reward. Examples include recent nominations for Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder and Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids. However, in these specific cases the other nominees in the category may have lead to an even less typical breakthrough. Palance’s fellow nominees in 91 were: Tommy Lee Jones in JFK, Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley in Bugsy, and Michael Lerner in Barton Fink. To openly speculate for a moment, Lerner represented a critically respected film that didn’t make much of an impact at the box office (and only received to other nominations in the craft categories) and both being in same film likely split some voting between Keitel and Kingsley. This was the first of Jones’s four Oscar nominations and is notable for standing out in such a crowded cast. Whether it wasn’t a big enough part or possibly some backlash to the controversial film itself, Jones did not prove to be competition for Palance. This year, Bassett is also up against two actors from one movie (Curtis and Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once) and two first time nominees, one from a very popular film (Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin) and one in a divisive film (Chau, The Whale.) Like Palance, the odds are not actively working against Bassett which may help her to pull her forward simply as the consensus choice.
Some Oscar wins seem obvious from the start and plow through award season to the Oscars with no real challenges, while others only become clear in hindsight. The other acting categories this season have mostly settled into “one or the other” prospective winners, but Best Supporting Actress has potential for a surprise. With no clear frontrunner the Oscars may want to reward the long overdue favorite in a popular film when there’s no other clear winner in the category. Looking back at the Oscars, patterns tend to emerge, some of which may feel like cliches, but often give some insight into how the Academy thniks.
Much of the discussion around Bassett’s nomination is how it is the first time someone from a Marvel film has been honored in an acting category. This may seem strange to some, but it would be wrong to fully count her out when Jack Palance won for a Billy Crystal comedy.
What this writer wants to know is: should Bassett win, will she do push ups on stage? (Probably not but wouldn’t that be fun!)
Palance doing push-ups on the Oscar stage
Danny Cox (he/him) is a "writer" but is working on building enough self confidence to remove those quotation marks. He graduated from Southern Illinois University Carbondale with a bachelor's in Cinema/Photography (with a lovely minor in theater.) His most recent publications can be found on Collider, but largely practices fiction writing for both the stage and screen. His short play Old Arnold was published and performed by Actor's Theater of Louisville in 2012, and has given him hope for a career in writing ever since. Danny is currently based out of Los Angeles.
Reader Comments (27)
Of course as many of you I would love a Bassett victory, but this is really the weakest performance of the fives. It's a collection of Oscar clips à la California Balfe in Belfast. Bassett can do better that this and we know it.
It's Condon (Banshee's best chance) vs Jamie Lee (same as Bassett's narrative, bigger campaign, SAG winner, in a NON-Marvel film and in the Best Picture frontrunner)
So far, I would say JLC is winning and Banshees gets emptyhanded
I would predict JLC at this point.
Bassett won two prizes from groups with zero AMPAS overlap, and the material isn't the easiest sell (compared to Regina King who won the Oscar without even SAG or BAFTA *nominations*).
Though Irish, Condon gets a bit of the BAFTA homefield advantage—and they loved Banshees. But Tilda Swinton benefited from that advantage too, and went on to win the Oscar. I could see her or Bassett winning but I feel more confident about Curtis.
The pendulum has swung all over since the season began early possible contenders Hoss,Buckley,Hathaway,Foy failed to pick up much steam.
Bassett wasn't highly fancied although reviews said she had some of her great enunciating moments we all love.
Then the Globes happened and people thought she was getting that career Oscar some stars are singled out for but the pendulum has swung back to Curtis for the career honours and if Condon is passed over I think McDonagh wins screenplay if she wins he loses that award.
I don't see all 4 Banshees actors going home empty handed either.
Regarding He/Him I don't think to inc pronouns is harming anyone,I am only interested here on what others think of the topic in question.
It's funny you're comparing her to Jack Palance, because, to me, if she loses, it's very reminiscent of Lauren Bacall in Mirror Has Two Faces, i.e., the legendary actress asked to lean on one-and-only-one of her strengths in a movie that's beneath her.
Which then got me to thinking - who's the Binoche?
Hsu is Jean-Baptiste, the unknown actress playing the daughter of a major best actress threat.
Curtis is the Hershey, the famous actress getting her first nomination for a scene-stealing role.
Chau is the Allen, an actress who's levelling-up with a performance in a movie that under-performed at the Oscars
So... is Condon the Binoche? the quiet part and best acting trophy chance in a nomination leader?
Mike's analysis is spot on it is like 1996 the only drawback is Binoche was more well known than Condon back then,I don't see Bassett winning at all,I think Curtis leapfrogged her after SAG..
I really hope Condon (maybe) or Hsu (not a chance) win. If not, then Curtis.
Not Bassett. The idea of her winning for that lame performance in such a bad movie, and it's Marvel??? No. It's embarrassing. Marvel films are the death of cinema. Let's not award them.
Hong Chau was nominated for the wrong film. She's infinitely better in The Menu.
@PP92: Here's another option. People get to announce their pronouns and you don't have to abide by their wishes if you don't want. It's called freedom.
@Mike in Canada: Since there isn't a nominee who was a clear lead in half a film then non-existent in the other, I'm not sure there's a Binoche.
Next time, spoiler alert would be appreciated...
Nathaniel, I'm shocked you've left up the rude, uncalled for and demeaning comment from @PP92 this long. Your readers and your contributors deserve a better experience on here.
Seeing how welcome @PP92 is to leave a borderline transphobic diatribe as the first comment under this article - out of absolutely nowhere, I might add - makes me reconsider how much time and energy I want to spend on this site. I've loved reading your (and your contributors) work for years, but now I'm wondering if the site is actually giving me something, anything, I can't get elsewhere. Because elsewhere most likely has moderation standards that won't let @PP92 be situated front and center, heckling their transphobia.
Moderation is important on forums like these, and letting crusty old turds sit in the pole positions to spew their "back in my day" bullsh*t - at the expense of simple inclusion and clarity - gives me zero confidence in your moderation skills or judgement. If this is considered acceptable and meaningful contributions to the discussion, then what are we actually discussing here?
I think there's just no way of knowing who is going to win this.
Condon is too unknown and has no real buzz, Chau is the least likely in a divisive film, Hsu has internal competition and is just breaking through, Curtis role is 0% what Oscar likes and also has internal competition; and Bassett is overdue but besides that has everything against her: few screentime in a superhero film that didn't perform well. Nobody seems like a winner.
Also yeah, let's delete that PP92 comment and let's pretend it never happened.
@Mike in Canada
I quite liked your comparison for this year's BSA lineup with the one in 1996. In this instance, pairing Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Stephanie Hsu is my favorite part as I (still would) like both actresses to win in this category, 1996 and 2022.
I think everyone's prognostication on who will win all had validity: JLC vs Bassett with Condon as dark horse. But Stephanie Hsu's still beauty of a performance is the one that I will remember most in Everything Everywhere All at Once and this year's crop of nominees. Lacking the machinery to mount a campaign on her behalf, she will most likely not win but happy she was nominated. Sustained traction is everything (and everywhere) now and in the future.
Mr Ripley -i also have trouble imagining BANSHEES going home emptyhanded,
Ozzie - we do not have time to police readers or the money to hire moderators. I apologize but that's the way it is.The site has always been a labor of love and it has held on only because of that love (in short the hours put into it are voluntary and some times we have time and sometimes we dont). Several months ago there was such bad behavior and so many fights in the comnents that we had to just shut down the comments for months. I miss the old community that we lost from open commenting system but at the same time I just physically can't (literally cannot) police everyone or moderate every comment. Eventually we tried registration which hasn't solved everything but has made things less volatile and angry in the chat.
The best i can do is pop in on occasion, remind everyone to be kind to each other and understand that there will be differences of opinion, and if there's been a problem course correct and delete portions of comments that are offensive or excessively rude. (This right now is literally the first time I was catching up with comments on this post.)
Mike -- i like the 1996 comparison and agree it favors Condon.
Sad Man -- i agree that Chau is better in The Menu
@Mike in Canada: tt 1996 comparison is genius!!
I agreed the supporting race is the most all over the place acting category! Four of the nominees (sorry, Hong Chau) have a legitimate claim, depending on which narrative and likeability factor you are looking at.
The Bacall/Bassett & Binoche/Condon comparisons really kinda mirror both years' race
IMO, the order of their chance of gold:
1 Condon (I agreed that this is the strongest place to reward Banshees, w/o it goin back empty handed)
2 JLC (The Momentum!! The Narrative!! Both her famous folks nvr won an Oscar before, so a win for her is a win for all three of them?? lol)
3 Bassett (The Narrative and the "cough" Black "cough" votes)
4 Hsu (EEAAO works mainly bcos of the stylistic choices/risks she manage to pull off as Joy/Jobu. To tink a month ago she actually might not be nom at all!! I'd wish the votes are based on performances instead of narratives, etc,,,but tt's how the race works)
5 Hong Chau (Yes, The Menu wld have been a better choice, This is more like a make-up nom for her snub 5 yrs ago for Downsizing)
I’m so glad this category got shaken up a bit. When the globes and critics choice happened, I was deeply disappointed at the idea of Angela Bassett steamrolling for this. I always knew there was a chance someone else could take it, though, when thinking of the Academy giving an acting award to a marvel movie… but I didn’t expect bafta AND sag to throw curveballs. I love it.
Honestly, after reading all this, I think Condon is a major spoiler in this category.
In my fantasy, Stephanie Hsu takes it in a shocker.
But right now, my gut is saying Jamie Lee Curtis… For her career - and her parents careers too.
1. JLC
2. Condon
3. Bassett
4. Hsu
5. Chau (def a makeup for Downsizing)
Im rooting for Angela Bassett. But, as much as I’d love to see her get the gold (for almost entirely sentimental reasons), I’ve never trusted the frontrunner narrative and won’t be surprised if JLC or Kerry Condon won instead. At least Condon’s win would be well-deserved.
For me it’s Hsu, Condon, Bassett, Curtis, then Chau.
The 1991 comparison is apt except for one thing. There was no Jamie Lee Curtis in that race opposite Palance. Curtis has proven herself a master campaigner, one who by campaigning on behalf of the film, seemingly selflessly (it's all about how great everyone else is in her enthusiastic accounts), she's engendered a TON of liberal good will toward herself. The more she salutes Michele Yeoh, the more people love her. Being the white ally for a mostly Asian-cast film has made her irresistible. It will be ironic if Curtis wins over Basset, though, if you think about it, since that's one less Oscar going to a deserving member of an historically underrepresented group. I won't feel bad about it if Yeoh wins Best Actress, but if we wind up with three out of four white winners this year, considering the strength of the non-White slate, it might seem a bitter victory indeed: voters rewarding the enthusiastic white ally (who should, of course, be praised for using her position of privilege for good) rather than the people of color on the ballot as a way to feel good about race.
@Ozzie T. - it's called Americaphobic and it's very different. Ask Nathaniel to cancel my account and justice will be done, so I will be finally able to do my music for videogames.
Anyway even with the recent story of Yeoh's Instagram post I think that this year the discussion about best actress and best sopporting actress became too much political than usual. The focus on two great pefromances as Hsu and Condon (that are really the award worthy performances of the quintet) was lost in favor of the discussion for a career honour for Curtis and Bassett.
In best actress we have two wonderful performances, but the discussion is focusing so much on ethnicity. Wouldn't be more healthy compare the two pieces of acting focusing on what they gave in their own scenes in a way that every other actress couldn't?
Agreed. Will there ever be a time when we award the performance and not the performer?
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@Tony L
Oscar recently awarded the performance over the performer with the Best Actor prize to Anthony Hopkins in The Father over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and again with the Best Actress prize to Olivia Colman in The Favourite over Glenn Close in The Wife.
I spoke in too broad of terms. My apologies.
“California” Balfe (she/her), a very “americaphobic” alliteration.
This category seems like a battle of two Bacalls. Somehow I am expecting a Tomei turn for Hsu not for racial bias but based on the fact that she gave the best performance in this line-up, so spectacular they can’t pass.
@PP92: You should consider posting on Sasha Stone's "Awards Daily" website. It's just the right amount of "anti-woke" (read: racist, homophobic, transphobic) for your obvious "European tastes."
@Antonio-I really thought was her name lol
I'd feel embarrassed for Bassett if she was given an Oscar for such a second-rate film. If anything, perhaps the momentum of earning a nomination will get her better roles - an Oscar role for something more important.