Best Supporting Actor - First Predictions!
Thursday, August 10, 2023 at 8:30PM by Nathaniel R
Willem Dafoe in "Poor Things" from Searchlight Pictures
Will Robert Downey Jr's scenery chewing in Oppenheimer, John Magaro's stealth beautiful support in Past Lives, and Ryan Gosling's giddy winking joy be "Kenough" several months from now when the Oscar nominations are announced? That's the pressing question at the moment when it comes to the Best Supporting Actor race. They're surely the top violable contenders from the first seven months of the year, give a pair from Air. But can you choose between the foul mouth charisma of Chris Messina and the hesitant gamber cool of Ben Affleck?
We frame the Best Supporting Actor race this way because who knows what the rest of year might hold in terms of releases...
There seems to be no end in sight for the WGA and SAG strike. The greedy studios aren't budging at the moment, unwilling to share the wealth that they can't even generate without writers and actors!
If the strike stretches on for months, Academy voters might not have any new films to consider before they have to vote. Without actors to promote the films, surely the studios won't risk dropping expensive awards-hopefuls like it's business as usual?
That said, for the purposes of the Oscar predictions -- which we've put off long enough -- we're pretending that things are going to be resolved and the slate of promising films will actually arrive. CHECK OUT THE CHART. More charts to come of course so boost our resolve at finishing them in the comments.
Best Supporting Actor, John Magaro, Oscars (23), Punditry, RDJ, Ryan Gosling, SAG
Reader Comments (22)
Right now, I see Robert Downey Jr. as the front runner for Best Supporting Actor and my long shot nominee is Michael Cera as Allan from Barbie. I see Ryan Gosling more as Best Actor.
I don't get the love for RDJ in Oppenheimer. I thought he was so bad. Also, Emily Blunt outshone everyone in it.
I love your predictions Nathaniel, gives us a really good dive in the season (and honestly helps me decide what to watch as we get into late autumn/winter). Thanks so much for doing them.
You accurately, I think, name the 3-D front runners (Dafoe, De Niro, and Downey).
Whoo! Excited for the predictions to get up and running.
RDJ and De Niro are in a good position but I think you might be slightly underrating Gosling's chances of a win (it's a big flashy performance in a movie that will continue to be talked about, it's a co-lead, it feels Kevin Kline in A Fish Called Wanda-esque).
I'm also pretty bullish on John Magaro getting in, maybe even more so than De Niro. It's a stand-out performance that leaves a real impression, and people are passionate about Past Lives. He's the actor in it voters are most likely to have some familiarity with. Plus, the film is going to be a major player and all of his scenes are some of the best scenes in the whole thing.
Charles Melton is i n c r e d i b l e in May December but strangely in a way that I think won't see him nominated. It's a performance that leans into his age and attractiveness, and the film's tone may put some voters off.
After Gosling, RDJ, Magaro and De Niro I feel like the likeliest candidates are Dafoe, Colman Domingo (or Corey Hawkins if his role is better), or somebody from the ensembles of The Bikeriders (maybe Tom Hardy), Maestro (maybe Jeremy Strong), or Rustin (maybe Glynn Turman).
Maybe this is a weird thing to say, but considering De Niro is firmly in the conversation for G.O.A.T., 7 nominations actually feels a tad low for his career.
I’m really hoping Dafoe knocks this role out of the park. He might be my favorite living Oscar-less male actor.
@Duncan - I have a strong feeling (hope?) that this is Domingo's year, either in supporting for Color Purple or lead for Rustin. Always helps to have multiple projects showing your range!
@Edwin - I totally agree re: De Niro, it's surprising he's not further up the record books (although he is among the 20 most recognized actors in Academy history)
I wonder if we're collectively underrating Jesse Plemons's chances in Killers of the Flower Moon. I think the Power of the Dog nomination shows a lot of industry goodwill for him, and he pops in the trailer--it certainly helps to get the laughs in what seems to be a very serious film otherwise.
I don't get the love for RDJ either. I wouldn't say he's bad, but there are so many better performances in the film.
I'm not convinced the Academy will go for Poor Things. The trailers make it look very weird, much weirder than anything they've nominated previously.
jules - How quickly we forget last season's hot dog finger domination, huh?
Well, Willem Dafoe and Laurie Metcalf should've won the supporting trophies a few years back... Unfortunately, Laurie Metcalf having another moment in the sun seems unlikely, but Willem Dafoe still has a shot. I hope Poor Things is great.
Rooting for Ryan Gosling, though. He stole the show.
This is always fun to see. Even as a way to know what to look out for!
I think RDJ is the frontrunner now. He's in a big adult drama hit, has a plum supporting turn that's different from his other nominations, and has made the industry a ton of money the past few years. He feels like he could be an obvious winner since he has a strong narrative, film, and performance. But, depending on how the timeline shifts and is affected by the writer's strike, I do wonder if he'll maintain that momentum. His performance and narrative will benefit a lot from campaigning, and if that's cut down in anyway, then I could see that hurting him most for a performance that isn't as widely seen, but is more loved. It reminds me of the Brad Pitt year - I could have easily seen Brad Pitt losing without the strong campaign.
I think if his performance is strong, then De Niro could be fairly undeniable. While I think RDJ can win the campaign, I think De Niro - when he has the goods - is unstoppable. But his last effort with Scorsese was middling, so I do wonder if they still have magic together.
Magaro is so good, but his film is probably too small and he may be too unknown. A24 may need a rerelease strategy of some sort to bring in the buzz for past lives during voting.
I'm not sold on Jeremy Allen White. He's hot right now, and TV love does translate, but I think he'll also be hurt by the fact that the strike and the Emmys delay (where he's expected to win, which could give him a different level of prestige).
I'm very curious about May December - it sounds great, but tricky. In all honesty, I do wonder if Netflix is ready to campaign for it in all categories, or if they primarly see it as a screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress contender. I also do think Charles Melton may be hurt, not just by his youth and looks, but more because he's coming off of Riverdale. Even Michelle Williams had a seasons off and years of performances to build credibility on before her first nomination. I do think the industry looks down on netlet stars.
I can't wait to see Cassandro - Raul Castillo is always excellent.
The supporting categories have seen quite a few double nominees the past few years. I wouldn't be shocked if we see that here given Killes of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Saltburn.
Philip H. - EEAAO has some offbeat humor, but it's really a heartwarming story about a family that a lot of people can relate to. I don't think Poor Things will be comparable. Even I think those Poor Things trailers are offputting, and I'm a cinephile who's pretty adventurous.
@Jonathan, I think Jesse Plemons has a lot of industry love and is maybe underrated. The fact that he got an emmy nomination for a show voters didn't seem to care for attest to that.
@Edwin, 7 nominations still makes him one of the most nominated actors of all time. But, I think De Niro has been in quite a few film genres that fell out of favor with voters, and he hasn't done many biopics. He also had a lot of commercial flops in the 80s, which hurt him. And, he's been a co-lead with other male actors that awards bodies embraced more (Awakenings, The Mission, Wag the Dog).
I can't say who i'd predict now,not see Oppenheimer so RDJ is a maybe,De Niro looks good in the trailer so he's my winning pick but who knows so far out,If Gosling is nominated i'll have to see Barbie which fills me with dread from what girlfriends have told me,most hated it's message and length.
I think Domingo will have a year and be nominated twice but his best chance is Rustin.
jules - I hear what you're saying - I was greatly anticipating Poor Things and felt a bit off put by how zany and stylized the trailer was. I wasn't expecting that, despite the wild plot.
It definitely doesn't seem like it'll have the human core that EEAAO has, but still, the Academy is currently much more adventurous than they've been historically, and the director and cast have been recognized in the past, so it could truly go either way. I don't see it being too weird for acting noms, but we'll have see how the season shakes loose.
i'm with Philip H in hoping Poor Things truly delivers and is great.
it'd be marvelous to see Willem Dafoe win an Oscar. his four nominations are all for wonderful performances, and he's almost 40 years from that first nod. he's been one of the industry's best character actors for almost four decades, so i'm hoping Poor Things gives him something juicy, deep, and substantive...not just surface-level zany. if it does, i think he stands a good chance a la Martin Landau in Ed Wood.
i'm with most here on RDJ. he's serviceable and strong(ish) in the role, but we don't need to be talking oscar just because he remembered to act for the first time in over a decade.
FWIW The Favourite's trailers (and the film itself) weren't exactly easily digestible either. #10noms1win
I wonder about Elordi. We know so little about that, but they liked Fennell's first movie and if he's strong in both Saltburn and Priscilla, and coming in off Euphoria buzz, he would seem possible.
Although it's tough to imagine two people as good looking as Elordi and Melton (if he gets in) both in what's so often the grizzled old man category.
As I recall (?) on 2022’s Supporting Actor, your choice for “Rustin” was Glynn Turman. What changed? Does his part look too small or not showy enough?
I would add Samuel L. Jackson for “The Piano Lesson”. Jackson played the lead role in this decades ago, and now he’s playing a supporting older part. He’s had decades to think about it, and that should make this something really wonderful to watch.
Director Steve McQueen’s movie “Blitz” may come out in 2023, and he’s a director who makes everyone in his cast look good. There seems to be a quite a number of supporting actors in this one. The lead is Saoirse Ronan, so the scenes actors have with her should be high in artistic quality.
And yes, I also love Ryan Gosling and John Magaro for not doing the expected thing, but showing us something better and perfectly suited to the strengths of their film.
I didn’t realize people didn’t like RDJ in Oppenheimer? Thought he was great, especially the gradual dark turn near the end. Totally a performance the Academy will recognize with a win. I think people are waaaaay overestimating DeNiro (as they did with the Irishman).
Gosling is locked for a nod but don’t think he can win. He was best in show tho. And if the year-end slate remains murky, I think Chris Messina gets in. Affleck was good in Air but don’t recall anyone thinking he needed a nomination for it.
I really hope Charles Melton is nominated for MAY DECEMBER. All three main actors in the film are absolutely brilliant, and it is a real breakthrough performance. He totally holds his own against the two actresses and is very much the film's secret weapon.
I think it might be De Niro, he was really good in his role.
After seeing Oppenheimer, I do wonder if some of the other men should be on this list. With large ensemble films, the industry will sometimes single out multiple actors, sometimes surprisingly.
Though RDJ is safe for a nomination, I do think Tom Conti and Jason Clarke should be on the board. Conti, a past nominee, lends real gravitas to his role in his few scenes. Jason Clarke is really memorable, and he plays his notes really well. It reminds me of Ned Beatty in Network a bit.