Best Lead Actor - First Round Predictions
Sunday, August 13, 2023 at 6:04PM by Nathaniel R
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Colman Domingo (Rustin) are both working the classic 'biopic' angle
As with the first round of Best Supporting Actor predictions, we're opting to pretend that the strike will be resolved in time for most of the movies that are scheduled for awards season to continue with their current plans. We use the word "pretend" because it feels increasingly likely that this awards season will be an unprecented combo of fewer than usual releases and zero celebrity campaigning. We hope the studio powers-that-be will wake from their incessant greed and learn to share the wealth with the people without whom they can't make money (actors/writers) but we're not going to hold out breath lest we asphyxiate.
On to Best Actor. This category is often heavy on biographical 'great men' roles and there's little reason to expect this year will be any different. Cillian Murphy, Colman Domingo, Bradley Cooper, Joaquin Phoenix, and Adam Driver will all potentially benefit from that tried and true awards-appeal genre...
Those aren't the only biographical roles but they're the ones that fit most neatly into what people think of when they think 'biopic' roles. Other men playing real life albeit much less famous characters are Leonardo DiCaprio, Zac Efron, Callum Turner, Paul Dano, and Gael Garcia Bernal.
We're usually more interested in the fictional roles since we like being surprised and the actors have to craft three dimensional characters with only the screenplay and their own imaginations. On the fictional character front we're most curious (sight unseen) about Andre Holland (The Actor) and Andrew Scott (The Stranger). In terms of Oscar predictions for fictional leading men we're most bullish about Paul Giamatti in Alexander Payne's latest dramedy The Holdovers and Barry Keoghan in Emerald Fennell's Saltburn.
First still from "Saltburn" from Amazon/MGM
Now it's true that Saltburn doesn't sound all that Oscar-bound on paper. The synopsis goes like so...
A college student (Barry Keoghan) develops an infatuation with a charismatic classmate (Jacob Elordi), who invites him to meet his aristocratic but eccentric family over the summer
It sounds a smidgeon Talented Mr Ripley-ish, no? Despite the reservations about it probably not fitting neatly into an Oscar 'genre', the Academy is getting more adventures. Most importantly, momentum matters a lot with industry awards and Saltburn could benefit from quite a lot of it. Barry Keoghan is fresh off a deserved and highly-regarded nomination for a well loved film (Banshees of Inisherin). He's got a very strong and currently popular supporting cast (Jacob Elordi, Rosamund Pike, Richard E Grant, Carey Mulligan) to play with. Most importantly a lot of people will be rooting for the film since it's the sophomore directorial outing from writer/director Emerald Fennell of Promising Young Woman fame.
TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEW CHART. Who are you inclined to predict sight unseen and which contenders do you think will be non-starters despite pre-release buzz?
Reader Comments (13)
I really feel like Cillian is 100% destined for a nod but 0% chance of winning. Too inward of a performance. This has to be Bradley Cooper’s a la the overracting of Gary Oldman and others.
While Lily Gladstone is the standout, DiCaprio also had stellar reviews. I remember a lot of critics claiming it was his best performances.
My thought has been that the streaming platforms could continue to release their stuff (at least smaller stuff like RUSTIN) as they can do press at any time and still get viewers which is ultimately their goal. But on the other hand, somebody like Domingo would profit so much from a big awards campaign that got him out there and glad-handing and reminding people how great he is to say nothing of building a narrative around being the first openly gay male actor to get a nomination in 25 years (!) that would likely be the thrust of campaign profiles and the such.
Cillian Murphy right now is the front runner while I hope Ryan Gosling gets nominated for Best Actor as I just love him as Ken.
I think your top 6 make a lot of sense, although I'll also be pulling for Garcia Bernal, although who knows, especially with the Amazon of it all.
That looks like a solid Top 5
Murphy doing great work for years,Peaky Blinders love and the Nolan factor should push him over the line although Nolan's films haven't garnered much love for actors over the last 20 odd yrs except Ledger.
Giamatti well liked actor previous snubs and no win nom help with a director looking for a comeback hit,trailer looks very promising.
Cooper way overdue probably should have won one already in 2018,directing yourself is not so easy plus the film will have to be special with all the expectations on it,Mulligan's acting talent should help.
Domingo seems poised for recognition this year in a baity biopic also has The Color Purple but the women always steal that film so Rustin is his best chance unless they go wild for both performances
Keoghan we usually have a repeater from the previous year and he has lots of goodwill and the buzz on the film is just beginning.
I see DiCaprio sitting this year out and only Gladstone and De Niro make it in but it is Leo.
Driver's film I feel will be more commercial than awards worthy
Efron they'd have to really like it and him to be a Charlize Monster level revelation
Phoenix a big maybe,if they feel like honouring Scott this year Phoenix gets in.
Caine,Damon,Chalamet,Holland,Fassbender,Turner,Dano,Sarsgaard,Hardy,Ehrenreich,Yoo,Strathairn etc will need critics or box office.
Just to add to what Glenn Dunks said, I imagine there will be a lot of backlash if Colman Domingo is the first openly gay actor to be nominated in this category in decades only to lose to a straight actor playing a gay character (Bradley Cooper).
I'm still hoping that Bob Marley: One Love might be eligible and is good enough that Kingsley Ben-Adir can get into this lineup.
Kingsley Ben-Adir was so sweet as one of the Kens in “Barbie”. And he looks great as Bob Marley in the trailer for “Bob Marley: One Love”. That is supposed to be released in mid January 2024. Why not use the rules for qualifying weeks to have it eligible for 2023 awards? With a January release, it would be harder to get 2024 awards traction.
As for Bradley Cooper, I keep seeing the headline:
“Bradley Cooper puts on a false nose to play a Jewish man”.
With all the chatter last year about how Tom Cruise should have been in the Best Actor race, I’m thinking, well why not Keanu Reeves for “John Wick 4”?
I think of John Wick as comparable to Ripley in the Alien series, iconic characters.
Reeves plays a great tragic character who is expressed through motion rather than dialogue. Isn’t this a vital part of “movies”?
It also sounds like Brideshead Revisited, which could make it very Oscar-friendly.
The still and synopsis from "Saltburn" make me think less Mr Ripley and more "Brideshead Revisited" directed by Yorgos Lanthimos.
I really hope Saltburn is great. Promising Young Woman was so interesting and it was fun seeing Emerald Fennell pop up in Barbie. And I was rooting for Keoghan last year.
I do wonder if Alexander Payne will be, like David O. Russell and Alejandro González Iñárritu before him, one of those directors who was embraced by Oscar a decade ago only to seem out-of-touch now. Our culture has really changed since he was last in the conversation, with Nebraska.
Nathaniel, I'm curious/surprised by the bullishness on Giamatti. I feel like if he couldn't get a nod for being grumpy and disagreeable in SIDEWAYS, it would be tough to get one here amidst this competition? I do think Giamatti is a very good actor, but his time seems to have passed?
I also wonder like Jules if Payne's moment too might have passed? I think Payne is a wonderful filmmaker, so I hope not, but I suppose we'll see. (Although Jules, I disagree on Inarritu...he was just nominated last year for Bardo and is still one of the most highly-revered directors in the industy).
The other surprise was Fassbender being in the Tier 4????? Evidently the film is fantastic, and a new Fincher film is always a big deal. I think everyone has missed Fassy and will be thrilled if he's back with a big role and he delivers?