Best Supporting Actress ~ First Round Predictions
Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:20PM by Nathaniel R
Emily Blunt in "Oppenheimer"
So is it finally Emily Blunt's time? She's been thisclose to an Oscar nomination multiple times with other awards bodies like SAG, the Golden Globes, and BAFTA making room for her repeatedly! Somehow an Oscar nomination has never materialized even when she 1000% deserved it (hello comedic genius from The Devil Wears Prada). With the largest female role in the The Year's Biggest Prestige Drama, Oppenheimer, she may finally make the shortlist. But what if previously nominated Florence Pugh joins her in the event that a lot of movies intended for the fall don't arrive as scheduled? Despite the movies lengthy running time they both don't get as many scenes as we would have liked but that might not matter given the film and the response.
Other questions looming over the Best Supporting Actress Oscar race are after the jump.
• Will Lily Gladstone be pitched as lead or support in Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon. Supporting is what everyone is saying but reviews suggest she's the center of the film. If she's a certain nominee -- as some think -- why not go for the bigger category?
Taraji P Henson in "The Color Purple"
• Can The Color Purple score a double nod in this category like the 1985 version did? Danielle Brooks has the Oprah Winfrey role and Taraji P Henson the Margaret Avery role in the film that isn't a remake of Spielberg's classic but an adaptation of the Broadway musical version of the tale. If it does score a double nod, who is playing Anjelica Huston in this reenactment? (For now we're guessing that it'll be a repeat of the Tonys when only Brooks got the nod.)
• Which Ferrari woman will have a meatier role? Penélope Cruz is Ferrari's wife and Shailene Woodley is his mistress.
• Can Nyad bring Jodie Foster back to the Oscars? Does Jodie Foster even want to go back to being a movie star in any capacity?
Which questions come to your mind when looking at the new chart?
NEW OSCAR CHARTS
Prediction Index | Picture | Director | Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor | Screenplays | Visual Categories | Sound Categories | Animated Feature
Reader Comments (27)
Reading between the lines, does this mean you think both Natalie Portman & Julianne Moore will be in the Best Actress race for May December?
I'm hoping for America Ferrera, Emily Blunt, and Florence Pugh to be nominated based on the films I've seen so far.
I think I said this elsewhere, but Emily Blunt seems set to get a first-time “career” nod for a weepy wife/mother role when the rest of her filmography is much richer and varied (see also Maggie Gyllenhaal and Patricia Clarkson).
nyad sounds like something nell would say
I know Julianne is likely to be in the running here, but I don't know if it's category fraud. Rachel McAdams is my favorite of the year so far, but a nomination for her feels like wishful thinking, unfortunately. Your top five make a lot of sense.
Jodi Foster seemed happy about her recent globe win and she did press in 2020. That may be because she was bored at home, or because she believed in the film (she’s so selective, so maybe she’ll do that for all of her films).
It’s very easy to see Emily Blunt winning. Yes, folks will crow about it being a wife role, but she’s quite good. I think Pugh could slip in, but she’ll need to make precursors.
I think Brooks has the better part with the musical - it’s a showy role with good songs.
Very excited about Penelope.
Some thoughts on my own Top 5 but who knows as of yet
Foster may not want to be a big Movie Star again but she's respected and I have a feeling Nyad is going to do well and she'd make a lovely double up with Bening.
Pike previous nominee in a buzzy film,does she have enouigh to do,my no guts pick this year.
Henson If the film doesn't do as well she could be the films lone nominee if it does very well then Brooks joins her
Blunt passed over at least 4 times already,if it has to be a supporting wife role that gets her there then so be it,should have won in 2006.
Randolph Is this Payne's comeback film could have multiple nominations and she's a very likely,good scene partner in Giamatti.
Your nominees look very promising,you went for Pike aswell
I see Ferrari as a commercial player and Mann has never been an Oscar favourite
Where 's Julianne Moore? Lead is quite crowded.
I've not seen a lot in 2023 but Sigourney Weaver is my own pick so far.
Great list!
No Moore? I thought she was definitely supporting in May/December - it’s Portman’s (and then Melton’s) story through and through.
All in for Gladstone in lead.
Blunt is so overdue her first nomination but how disappointing for a career as varied and as interesting as hers to be for a Nolan stock long-suffering wife part. As good as she is.
Seeing Scarlett down in the 3rd tier is so sad. I get it. Yes, it's not the kind of thing they usually give awards to, but she's just tremendous in that film. Presuming the Payne film makes some money, Randolph makes tons of sense. And given the rapturous response to "the speech" I'm thinking you may be under-rating Ferrera. As everyone's noting, until we find out how they are going to campaign Gladstone this category is hazy.
My predictions in yesterday's thread matched Nat's top tier 4/5, but then the fifth one (Julianne Moore) doesn't appear in the list at all. So Nathaniel has her in leading with Portman, which doesn't bode well for either of them if it pans out that way.
I'd give Emily Blunt the win for The Devil Wears Prada—it's one of those Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny style comedic turns that never gets old and contains such iconic beats, lines. Both seemed slight and insignificant in their years but man have those performances aged well, you can't do better.
Since then I wouldn't have nominated her for anything. I wish she'd done more small/auteur projects along the way, not just all the big popcorn movies she gets. It's strange that such a talented actress hasn't found better material in her prime. She's stuck being "quite good" rather than great and Oscar-worthy.
I think the issue with Blunt's role is not that it's a "wife role," but that it's such a poorly written, one-dimensional "wife role." Her sole character trait is "alcholic." Compare that to past nominees like Anjaune Ellis in King Richard, Sally Field in Lincoln, Laura Linney in Kinsey, etc. Their movies showed us a more complete portrait of those women. (And if Pugh, an actress I really like, somehow gets nominated for that completely thankless role, it will be a very weak year indeed.)
@DK -- I would've nominated and given the Oscar to Blunt for "Sicario." Phenomenal film that has aged well, and she's sensational in it.
A lack of possible Emily Blunt nominatons comes from the fact than more often than not she has been in genre roles or comedies
Blunt's filmography since Prada (2007-23) is spotty, to say the least. It's very Olivia de Havilland post-GWTW (1940-56)—she just doesn't have an Heiress on her list. Though she was nomination worthy in Sicario, Sunshine Cleaning and The Young Victoria (and Edge of Tomorrow, but most awards groups were going to ignore that project anyway).
A few thoughts:
-I thought Blunt was legitimately bad in Oppenheimer. Awkward line readings, inconsistent tone. Really hoping a slot isn’t wasted on her.
-I think Viola Davis will get in for Air. I don’t really think the performance warrants it but she is so well respected. I think people love having her nominated the way people love having Meryl nominated. I know Davis missed the cut with The Woman King but hey even Meryl was snubbed for The River Wild. And except for Live By Night, Ben Affleck films always get a supporting actor/actress nominated.
-I’ve read Killers of the Flower Moon and the only way it would make sense for Lily Gladstone to be supporting is if the film cut out a ton of material with her character which wouldn’t make sense. She is the central character in terms of things revolving around her character for most of the book, and the person she plays has so much dialogue in the book. She is 100% the lead female character. This is a main character.
Most of Blunt's peers are good at doing "one for them, one for me" and balancing out studio films with lower budget acting showcases.
Blunt always tries to do both at once—big budget "prestige" fare with expensive IP (Girl on the Train, Mary Poppins, Into the Woods) and it's (rightly) never gelled into an Oscar nomination. And then she gives her all in films like Edge of Tomorrow and A Quiet Place—admirable, but naturally not Oscar plays.
It’s no surprise that the performances people are singling out are Villeneuve (Sicario) and Vallee (Young Victoria). It wouldn’t kill her to turn down Rob Marshall or Tate Taylor and collaborate with more directors who will actually get her “there.” She should talk to Nicole Kidman.
Yikes, the possibilities right now don't look very strong, hoping for some shakeups.
Emily Blunt, Viola Davis, Florence Pugh...these are solid but completely un-extraordinary performances that really shouldn't be nominated for Oscars.
I'm hoping Jodie comes through with a superb return to form. And that Tilda's role in The Killers gives her something meaty that she puts her brilliant spin on.
Would also be joyous to see Audra McDonald get a real role in Rustin!
Replace Woodley with Moore and you have a solid Top 10. I feel Gladstone is going to move to Lead as well. Either way she's getting nominated.
I assume Best Actress is comingvery soon,so here goes mine
Barrino
Bening
Huller
Mulligan
Robbie
@eurocheese: I agree that Rachel McAdams would be a good choice. She’s done consistently good work for years in both drama and comedy. It sounds like she anchors the “Are You There” movie with a thoughtful naturalistic performance.
My other choices would be:
Hong Chau in “Showing Up”. Is this the first time she hasn’t played a service person? So the only roles this excellent actress can get nominated for are service people?
Danielle Deadwyler in “The Piano Lesson”. She should have been nominated last year in Best Actress. A terrific actress, probably great in this. And is Samuel L. Jackson her screen partner? Can’t wait.
Lily Gladstone in “Flowers Of the Killer Moon”. Unless this role is categorized as Leading.
Rebecca Ferguson in “Dune 2”. I would have nominated her for the first “Dune”. That kind of big spectacle sci-fi movie needs a strong actress to create a clear and believable narrative. There might also be a feeling that she’s not appreciated enough, bringing a vivid energy to the Mission Impossible series, but not valued enough.
Well I just saw ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT'S ME MARGARET and y'all were right, Rachel McAdams is something magical in that. And the movie is 100% charming. I didn't expect to be crying over a girl getting her period. But yes, this movie's Oscar chances aren't great which is a damn shame.
I'll be happy for Emily Blunt to get her first nomination. Let's all just pretend it's for [insert role here]. For me that would be Devil Wears Prada and Edge of Tomorrow. THOUGH one of her final scenes--refusing to shake hands with Benny Safdie (dad from AYTGIMM! it's all connected!) was amazing.
May December is not a co-lead situation. Natalie is very much the lead and it is mostly from her perspective. Julianne is absolutely perverse in the role and I think she has a great shot at a nomination.
I think this is Gladstone's to lose unless she pulls a Michelle Williams. I also think she could still win lead.
My current predictions
1. Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Moore - May December
4. Brooks - The Color Purple
5. Randolph - The Holdovers
6. Henson - The Color Purple
7. Foster - Nyad
8. Pike - Saltburn
9. Cruz - Ferrari
10. Foy - All of Us Strangers
A topic with really good information. I love reading news articles like this and I have also downloaded some high techloky apps so I can read and watch the news every day.
Moore is definitely going to be campaigned for supporting. And, tbh, she's absend for long enough stretches that it doesn't feel silly (certainly not a Rooney Mara situation).
I really do reckon that Patti Lupone is going to do well with critics after Gladstone. Re Lily, I thought I had read that she isn't anywhere near as prominent in the second half of Flower Moon?
Just realized that Margot Robbie has the opportunity to collect THREE Oscar nominations this year : Actress in a Leading Role (for Barbie) and and Best Picture for both Saltburn and Barbie. Whatta year!
Nathaniel, I would love to hear your thoughts on Barbie. I really enjoyed it and thought Robbie was MVP. The scene of Kingsley Ben-Adir "mansplaining " The Godfather...I could not stop laughing. I don't think it's perfect but I enjoyed the hell out of it.