Emmy Category Analysis: Lead Actor in a Drama Series (2023)
Wednesday, September 13, 2023 at 1:51PM By Christopher James
Jeremy Strong has won Lead Actor in a Drama Series once before, for the second season of Succession in 2020.
Another day, another category that Succession has dominated. Of the six slots in the category for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series, Succession takes up half the category. However, this isn’t necessarily a huge bonus for the show. The other Drama Series acting categories seem relatively locked up (take the time to prepare speeches, Sarah Snook, Matthew MacFadyen, and Jennifer Coolidge). Yet, the Lead Actor in a Drama Series race feels much more open. Multiple Succession cast members have narratives for a win, while the non-Succession men are putting up a great fight.
Who will prevail in this tight race? Let’s take a look at the episode submissions...
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
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Jeff Bridges - The Old Man - Submission: “I” (Episode 1)
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Brian Cox - Succession - Submission: “Rehearsal” (Episode 2)
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Kieran Culkin - Succession - Submission: “Church and State” (Episode 9)
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Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul - Submission: “Saul Gone” (Episode 13)
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Pedro Pascal - The Last of Us - Submission: “Kin” (Episode 6)
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Kieran Culkin - Succession - Submission: “With Open Eyes” (Episode 10)
When someone is submitted against their co-stars, choosing an episode submission becomes even trickier. You want to highlight your best work, but not also further the case for your nominated co-star. This is how Felicity Huffman pulled a surprise win over Marcia Cross for season one of Desperate Housewives. Similarly, the Modern Family men would routinely swap wins based on strategic episode submissions.
For the Succession men, it’s more of a race between Keiran Culkin and Jeremy Strong. Brian Cox is incredibly good in his submission, “Rehearsal.” A final scene where he tries to apologize to his kids before dubbing them “not serious people” is exquisite and shows new shades behind the boisterous Logan Roy. However, Cox is very much not a Lead in this particular season, as he’s only alive for two out of ten episodes of the season. He may get some votes for his commanding presence, but if the award goes to a Succession actor, the crown will lie with one of the sons.
Strong has won this category once before, but ever since has become the poster child for self-serious method acting. In both his episode - the series finale - and particularly in Culkin’s submission, Strong’s Kendall gets speeches upon speeches, pontificating and eulogizing his Father while also tearfully pleading for control of the company. It’s more of the same of what we’ve seen him do before to win the prize, which could work again. However, it’s Keiran Culkin who shows the most variety between the three Succession episodes. In his submission, “Church and State,” Roman puffs out his chest and deflects with humor throughout much of the episode. Yet, when it comes down to giving a eulogy at his Father’s funeral, he breaks down. In fact, all three episodes expertly dramatize this dichotomy - Roman’s acerbic wit is meant to mask his more emotional, childlike self. This gives Culkin a great platform to display his range and should justifiably lead to his first Emmy win.
Still, one should never count out an overdue actor submitting the series finale of their long running show. This strategy has given the following actors their first Emmys - Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), and Matthew Rhys (The Americans). Though all of those shows have had better Emmy records than Better Call Saul, lead Bob Odenkirk hopes that this trend could continue for him. Odenkirk commands the screen in a finale that jumps past the events of Breaking Bad and provides a satisfying conclusion for the morally compromised character. There’s a good chance that Better Call Saul fans (and even stray Breaking Bad fans) could give Odenkirk a win as a parting gift. This is especially true if there’s vote-splitting from within the Succession faction.
The show with the second most nominations of the year was The Last of Us, and Pedro Pascal has been steadily accumulating more fame and clout. This year, Pascal earned two nominations, Drama Lead Actor for The Last of Us and Comedy Guest Actor for Saturday Night Live. This shows a large amount of support for the actor who first stunned audiences in Game of Thrones. However, Pascal’s work as Joel in The Last of Us may prove too challenging for a win. He’s an emotionally guarded killer leading a young girl across the country in a post-apocalyptic world. In his submission, Kin, Joel finally reunites with his brother and breaks down as he asks for help. It’s the right submission for Pascal, but might pale in comparison to the flashier Succession options. Still, if there are enough fans of the show voting and vote-splitting occurs, Pascal could be a surprise winner.
The (relative) surprise nominee of the bunch is Jeff Bridges, who headlined the new FX on Hulu show, The Old Man. In submitting the pilot, Bridges gives us a compelling introduction to Dan Chase, a stuck in his ways recluse forced out of his home when his mysterious past comes back to haunt him. Bridges can do “gruff old man” in his sleep, but many of the action scenes are surprising and provoke a more tactile and spry bit of acting from him than we’ve seen in a while. As someone who had never watched a bit of the show, the pilot and Bridges' performance made a compelling case for me to keep watching the show. This won’t be enough for the win, though.
Prediction
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Kieran Culkin - Succession
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Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul
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Pedro Pascal - The Last of Us
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Jeremy Strong - Succession
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Brian Cox - Succession
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Jeff Bridges - The Old Man
Who do you want to win the Lead Actor in a Drama category at the Emmys? Let us know in the comments below.
Other Emmys Coverage:
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Emmy Category Analysis
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Lead Actor in a Comedy Series, by Abe Friedtanzer
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Limited Series Supporting Categories, by Christopher James
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Drama Supporting Categories by Abe Friedtanzer
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Comedy Supporting Categories by Abe Friedtanzer
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Drama Guest Categories by Abe Friedtanzer
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“A History of the Oscars at the Emmys (Can They Win Variety Special, Live, for the First Time?)” by Chris James
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“The Strange History of Iconic TV Characters That Never Won Emmys,” by Eric Blume
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“Emmy Spotlight: "The Other Two" and the tradition of the 'lone writing nomination’,” by Chris James
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“Emmy Nominations - Who's Up and Who's Down?,” by Chris James
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“Four shows entirely dominated the Emmy nominations. Worthy or excessive?” by Abe Friedtanzer
Reader Comments (7)
I love Succession and think its performances make the show, but would vote for Odenkirk - he deserves an Emmy for playing Saul Goodman. He makes it look so easy (which probably hurts his awards chances) and seems to be one of the most decent men in Hollywood to boot.
I think it is important to note that Chandler, Hamm, and Rhys who won for their series finales had never who an Emmy. Odenkirk won two Emmys in the 1990s when he worked as a writer for network variety shows. A win may not seem so urgent.
I’m rooting so hard for Brian Cox to win. He is by far the best actor on Succession and has also by far the most iconic character of this lineup. It would be a real disappointment if Cox doesn’t win this. That said, if not him then Bob Odenkirk should get the “final season” win that several actors have gotten.
As for who I think WILL win: I think we shouldn’t overthink too much and we should remember there’s nothing the Emmys love more than awarding someone who has won recently already. It’s gonna be Jeremy Strong. It’s just that simple.
I'm rooting for Odenkirk or Strong. I'm not as taken with Culkin as others seem to be, and Cox has no business being in the Lead Actor category given the very brief amount of screen time he had this season.
I think the Jeff Bridges nomination is really deserved. His performance plays well over the course of the season, and I wish the show had performed better. Nominations for John Lithgow and Amy Brennamen in supporting would have been deserved, along with Joel Grey in guest. I don't think Bridges will win this year, but I could see him winning in the future.
I think the race is between Cox, Odenkirk, and Strong. If Cox didn't have any emmy he'd be a frontrunner, and might still be, given how important his character is. I do think Odenkirk could surprise since he's so well loved and for his role. Strong is the true lead of Succession, however, and I think that helps him alot.
I'll pick Odenkirk, but I think it will depend on just how big Succession is. I don't think it will sweep, but if it does, then one of the succession men wins.
Culkin all the way for me. But that said, you're right to note how extraordinary Cox is in Rehearsal, so if he somehow won I'd hardly mind.
Congrats to Mr. Brian Cox for submitting in the right category.