Will any of the PGA Nominees miss the Best Picture list at the Oscars?

by Nathaniel R

A REAL PAIN scores a coveted PGA nod. Can it beat SING SING to the Oscars?

After the BAFTAs the season is coalescing leaving little room for surprise when the delayed Oscar nominations arrive this coming Friday (January 23). The Producers Guild have also announced their nominations. While the PGA leans more 'mainstream' than Oscar, this looks very much like what we can expect on Oscar nom morning. Still history suggests one (or two) nominee(s) could fall to the wayside. But which...

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune Part Two
• Emilia Perez
• A Real Pain
• September 5
• The Substance
• Wicked

Locked in now for Best Picture nods? All but three of these...

The three question marks? September 5 and A Real Pain both have their fanbases but calling either of them locks feels like overselling it a bit. They will probably make it... but it wouldn't be shocking if they didn't. Finally, The Substance has been performing spectacularly well all precursor season. If it does score the Best Picture nomination most sane people would have thought impossible back in May, it will be a huge deal given the Academy's typical aversion to horror and gore* and female led films within the Best Picture category. Movies with horror elements -- it all depends on your definition of "horror" -- sometimes do land but it's rare. In the past 50 years, for example, I'd argue there are only five that match a loose definition of horror: Ghost (1990), The Silence of the Lambs (1991), The Sixth Sense (1999), Black Swan (2010) and The Shape of Water (2017). Black Swan might be the closest precedent to The Substance given its body horror elements and female bent, but I'd argue that you have to go back more than half a century to find a gonzo gross-out equivalent in The Exorcist (1973). 

* They're A-okay with gore in war films but otherwise, nope!

Here are the results of the past five years comparing PGA nominations to Oscar's Best Picture list. In all years where they "replaced" PGA choices, Oscar improved the overall field.

• 2023 - 10/10
• 2022 - 7/10 (All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking were the Oscar nominees replacing PGA choices Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and The Whale.)
• 2021 - 8/10 (Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley replacing PGA choices Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick...Boom! -- if only it could have been Drive My Car and Tick, Tick...Boom! splitting the difference)
• 2020 - 7/8 (Oscar had fewer nominees and The Father filled in the gap left by three PGA choices Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, One Night in Miami, and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) 
• 2019 - 9/9 (but PGA had ten nominees so the film that was booted out of Best Picture was Knives Out.)

All that said Best Picture is now locked in to 10 slots so only really the last three years apply so we've got one perfect match, one 7/10, and one 8/10. What will this year bring? 

Bubbling Under?
When Oscar does make a switch from the PGA list it leans more international or arthouse. Our guess is that IF they make a change (and they might not) the disrupter will either be All The We Imagine as Light or Sing Sing.... if there are secret passions brewing for longer shots than the disruptor could be The Seed of the Sacred Fig, I'm Still Here, or Nickel Boys. No PGA nomination, though, means that Challengers and Gladiator II (both much more PGA-friendly than Oscar friendly) are surely dead in the water for Best Picture slots. 

ANIMATED THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURE

• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Moana 2
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
• The Wild Robot

PGA's taste in animated features is historically far less discerning than Oscars so don't count on Moana 2 being a slam dunk transfer. Oscar voters have never included three sequels in a single Best Animated Feature category (and they've had several opportunities) so if something's gotta go from this lineup it's definitely Moana 2. Our guess is that the Academy chooses either Memoir of a Snail or Kensuke's Kingdom instead. Chicken for Linda would be a fun French surprise but it's hard to imagine it happening. 

EPISODIC TELEVISION DRAMA

• Bad Sisters
• The Diplomat
• Fallout
• Shogun
• Slow Horses

The PGA is very into Apple TV!

EPISODIC TELEVISION COMEDY

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• Curb Your Enthusiasm
• Hacks
• Only Murders in the Building

Given that the PGA loves Apple TV will Shrinking place next year... or was it eligible this time around? 

LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES TELEVISION

• Baby Reindeer
• FEUD: Capote vs The Swans
• The Penguin
• Ripley
• True Detective: Night Country

It feels like Baby Reindeer is in its third year of awards shows, doesn't it? (not a knock on it. love Baby Reindeer) 

TELEVISED OR STREAMED MOTION PICTURES

• Carry On
• The Greatest Night in Pop
• The Killer
• Rebel Ridge
• Unfroster

NON-FICTION TELEVISION

• 30 For 30
• Conan O'Brien Must Go
• The Jinx - Part Two
• STEVE (Martin) A Documentary in 2 Pieces
• Welcome to Wrexham

LIVE ENTERTAINMENT, VARIETY, SKETCH STANDUP & TALK TELEVISION

• Ali Wong: Single Lady
• The Daily Show
• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
• The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
• Saturday Night Live

I enjoyed Ali Wong: Single Lady but one has to wonder why this stand-up special in particular has caught fire with awards voters (see the recent Globe win and now this nomination) given the pure volume of stand-up specials on view. Again no knock on Ali Wong (so glad she won prizes for Beef) but it's not like this show captured the zeitgeist or had critics in a race to hurl purple praise at it in the way that some award winning standup has in the past like, say, "Rothaniel" by Jerrod Carmichael or "Nanette" by Hannah Gadsby. The industry really does operate like a hive mind sometimes so expect to see Ali Wong: Single Lady nominated at the Emmys next year, too (it premiered well after the cut-off for the last Emmys) 

This category provides a teensy speck of drama in the broad "awards season" sense of things (even if not within the PGA) since by its nature it can't be exactly the same nominees as the Emmys or Globes since there are different parameters on what's eligible given the definition of the categories. On the other hand the PGA doesn't mix it up with their winners. In this 18 year old category they've chosen only three shows as winners:

2015-2023 Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2014 The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
2007-2013 The Colbert Report  

GAME & COMPETITION TELEVISION

• The Amazing Race
• RuPaul's Drag Race
• Top Chef
• The Traitors
• The Voice

Speaking of Hive Mind industry awards. The Traitors will win and here's why. Nothing is more dependably repetitive than competition categories with awards shows. Consider...

2024 tba but it will be the Traitors (PGA), The Traitors (Emmy)
2023 RuPaul's Drag Race (PGA, Emmy)
2022 Lizzo's Watch Out for the Big Grrrls (PGA, Emmy)
2021 RuPaul's Drag Race (PGA, Emmy)
2020 RuPaul's Drag Race (PGA, Emmy)
2019 RuPaul's Drag Race (PGA, Emmy)
2018 RuPaul's Drag Race (PGA, Emmy) - this was the first year the PGA had this category
2015-2017 The Voice (Emmy)
2014 The Amazing Race (Emmy)
2013 The Voice (Emmy)
2011-2012 The Amazing Race (Emmy)
2010 Top Chef (Emmy)
2003-2009 The Amazing Race (Emmy)

So in the entire 22 year history of this category at the Emmys only 6 shows have ever won and the PGA has never once disagreed with them!

Comments

[Tony L]

January 23 is a Thursday - just an fyi :)

[DAVID S]

THE TRAITORS deserves all the awards it is getting and then some. Alan Cumming is the perfect reality show competition host. It is a perfect level of camp that takes itself very seriously and never feels stale or contrived.

I remember when DRAG RACE used to feel this fresh and exciting and now it's an absolute slog to sit through anymore.

[Edwin]

I understand people's reluctance to call The Substance a lock, but at this point I would truly be surprised if it missed. The only significant nominations it didn't get were the DGA and BAFTA, and with only 5 nominees for each, I don't think missing there is a sign of weakness so much as it is just clarification that it's not in the top 5. But I can't see it missing in a field of 10, especially when BAFTA gave it the Best Director nod despite not getting in for Best Film.

I think the state of the race looks like this in the final stretch:

LOCKS/COULD POTENTIALLY WIN:
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez

NOT GOING TO WIN BUT THEIR NOMINATIONS ARE SAFE:
A Complete Unknown
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Wicked

FIGHTING FOR THE LAST TWO SPOTS:
A Real Pain
September 5
Sing Sing

UNLIKELY BUT COULD SURPRISE:
All That We Imagine As Light
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Anything else would be a real shock.

I also think it's possible that if September 5 gets in, that could be the film's only nomination, which would make it the first film since The Ox-Bow Incident in 1943 to be nominated for Best Picture and nothing else.

[Wae Mest]

GET OUT doesn't match a "loose definition of horror" to you???