Cannes: Best Actress and Best Actor

Hmmm. Not sure what to make of this. It's both awesome in that Kirsten Dunst is realizing she's part of history (why am I hearing a Drew Barrymore lispy childhood throwback in her voice? It's so cute) and troubling. You see, as we've discussed before the Melancholia press conference can't have been easy for her but my personal feeling is that she should defer the LvT questions -- say as little as posssible -- rather than join in the condemnation. He is, after all, her director of the performance that's bringing in the accolades and helping her win her first huge Best Actress prize as a star. She needs to  separate herself but still be gracious about it. If her performance ends up being one of the best of the film year, hopefully she'll have the chance to perfect this tricky balance later on in Oscar season.

For the French speakers among you, to balance things out, here's Best Actor winner Jean DuJardin from The Artist.

The Rose

may flowers, blooming each afternoon

Just remember.... in the winter... far beneath the bitter snow...

How beautiful is that song? On a scale of 1-10? 11! One of the all time classics.

I don't think we've ever discussed that particular Best Actress race. Sally Field took her first Oscar for Norma Rae "UNION!". But who gets your vote?

• Jill Clayburgh, Starting Over
• Sally Field, Norma Rae
• Jane Fonda, The China Syndrome
• Marsha Mason, Chapter Two
• Bette Midler, The Rose

I've just realized that the reason we've never discussed it here at The Film Experience is that I barely remember these movies (and have never seen Starting Over ... which sounds like a spiritual sequel or straight up remake of An Unmarried Woman). I remember really liking the other four performances when I saw them on VHS (gulp) in the late 80s. I was a huge fan of Chapter Two in particular for a split second but barely remember it now. No one speaks of Marsha Mason anymore...

Streep. The Lady Turns Blue

A new photo of Jim Broadbent and Meryl Streep as Mr & Mrs Margaret Thatcher from The Iron Lady [via The Daily Mail]

This is apparently a recreation of her "The lady is not for turning" speech when she was at war with the unions. As much as I hated Mamma Mia! from her Iron Lady director and as much as I am largely suspect about this movie and whether it will lionize (perhaps accidentally?) an über conservative doing the kind of thing everyone is correctly pissed at the Wisconsin Governor for doing, I'll have to admit I'm getting more curious about the movie.

If only because it's so hard to read this far out. Did I underestimate it in my Oscar predictions?

April Foolish Predictions Complete: Actress & Picture

So my "April Foolish" Oscar Predictions are now complete. I rejiggered two tech predictions once I finally decided on my ten Best Pictures but honestly, any combo of the top 20 listed seems just as plausible as any other so long as the obvious get, War Horse, is there. (It's practically as obvious as The King's Speech was a year out.) We won't know until January how well I did but it's exciting this far out when anything seems possible yes?

BEST PICTURE
I didn't expect to get so fully behind Super 8 but sometimes your own predictions surprise you once you have to work every category out. My wishful thinking pick is David Cronenberg's psychoanalytic period drama A Dangerous Method which is a big old question mark for a number of reasons. But my hunch is that Viggo Mortensen, Michael Fassbender and Keira Knightley will all bring it which will heat up the material which is already sexual conceptually speaking since it's about Freud and Jung. But Cronenberg has never been to the Academy's liking so I'm probably wrong. My wildcard guess -- as in something that's not an obvious contender -- is Oren Moverman's Rampart, a police corruption drama. This film will have the same challenge as My Week With Marilyn in that it will only win real Oscar traction if it feels much larger or more mythic than a telefilm on the same material since both cover topics that have been dramatized on television many times: cop dramas and Marilyn Monroe respectively. My guess for Smallest Nomination Tally But still Best Pic competitor is We Bought a Zoo (just a hunch). My guess for Film With Most Noms That Doesn't Get Nominated For Best Picture (whew) which was Alice in Wonderland last year and Nine the year before (i think?)  is The Adventures of TinTin: The Secret of the Unicorn but if I'm wrong on that, I feel certain it'll be Hugo Cabret.

QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Which film am I greatly overestimating?
Which movie am I greatly underestimating?
Where am I Goldilocks "just right"?
I'll admit I had NO idea what to make of Moneyball. You?

BEST ACTRESS
Elizabeth Olsen and Felicity Jones were the twin Sundance bids for this category in January and we know how last year and the year before (Bening & Lawrence, Mulligan & Sidibe) turned out: all were nominated. But in a fit of bravery, I'm not predicting either of them.

I'm going with a mostly Previous Nominees lineup. How do you deny Michelle Williams, Glenn Close or Keira Knightley for example this far ahead with juicy roles? As for never-nominated people, I'm totally curious to see what happens with Charlotte Rampling's film The Eye of the Storm.

ACTRESSY QUESTIONS FOR YOU:
Anyone think they'll pass on Meryl Streep this year? (I perversely wanted to predict it.)
Which actress am I underestimating?
Could you see Williams winning for Marilyn?

Note to New Readers
The navigation bar up-top has pull down menus for each Oscar charts or you can click on the Prediction Index and investigate from there. Join in the conversation!

Tuesday Top Ten: Actress Psychic ~ The Winners

As faithful readers know, The Film Experience has been doing a little contest called ACTRESS PSYCHIC for the past four years. It goes like this: Readers have to pick their 5 predicted BEST ACTRESSES in the first week of April and those actresses earn points throughout the year through special events, nominations, wins, certain magazine covers, etcetera. In other words, guessing LONG before there is much buzz at all outside of Sundance entries. In 2010 Nathaniel (c'est moi) majorly biffed this contest due to time constraints and a series of unfortunate events. Points were never tallied and the drama of the contest was lost.

 
And boy would there have been drama. I definitely picked the wrong year to drop this (crystal) ball. The shame, the shame.

BEST ACTRESS was unusually competitive this year and a lot of the women that readers picked would have racked up some points here and there like Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right) and Noomi Rapace (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo). The most common guess that didn't pan out was Anne Hathaway in Love and Other Drugs... but NO ONE was psychic enough to say "I bet she won't get traction but will become the next Oscar host!" Whod'a thunk it? Hilary Swank in Betty Anne Waters (that's what Conviction was called a year ago) was also a very popular guess. At least the Swankster got a SAG nomination. Helen Mirren in The Tempest and Carey Mulligan in Never Let Me Go were popular guesses that never caught fire in reality later on. The most frequently cited names for films that didn't show up at all (this happens every year) were Hiam Abbas in Miral and Robin Wright in The Conspirator.

I didn't want to let awards season end without sharing a hearty congratulations to a dozen contestants in particular. 12 READERS GUESSED FOUR OF THE EVENTUAL FIVE ACTRESSES THAT WERE NOMINATED. Well done! You're in the tippity top percentile of Oscar Psychics!  The order of the following over-achievers is estimated since we biffed the contest and point tallying but Portman would have obviously been the highest point earner (wins and celebrity ubiquity) and Williams worth the least points (not an Oscar newbie, low profile and not showing up in each battle.) From the people who were not nominated Hathaway, Moore, Swank, Rapace and the like would have probably been worth the most due to Globes, SAG or BAFTA recognition.

THE TOP TEN PSYCHICS

Best Actress 2010: Portman, Williams, Lawrence, Kidman, Bening

10 (3 WAY TIE)  Ryan RM, Ronald R and Chicano1616 guessed 4 of the 5 Actresses correctly but they all chose the wrong film for Annette Bening (Mother and Child which was not an uncommon guess either) and that would have costs them many of the Bening-centric points.

09 DJ guessed everyone but Portman. Whoops: Robin Wright

08 Lucas G guessed everyone but Portman. Whoops: Hathaway

07 Wayne guessed everyone but Portman. Whoops: Hathaway but nailed the tiebreaker by predicting The Kids Are All Right to get 4 nominations.

06 SaveFerris guessed everyone but Williams. Whoops: Jennifer Connelly

05 sasnyder guessed everyone but Lawrence. Whoops: Hathaway

AND NOW OUR MEDALISTS...
Imagine Canada and US national anthems now.

04 (BRONZE)  SCOTT L guessed everyone but Williams (Whoops on Hathaway) but I am estimating that Williams would have been the lowest point earner of the 5 eventual nominees and Hathaway would have been worth a bit.

02 (SILVER MEDAL TIE) RICH AUNT PENNYBAGS missed only Kidman. (Whoops on Swank).
DEREK in NY missed only Williams. (Whoops on Hathaway) They tied on the tiebreaker going over and under the correct answer.

01 (GOLD MEDAL)  MIKE28 is our winner. He missed only Michelle Williams. (Whoops picked Anne Hathaway though she was still worth some points. Saturday Night Live hosting and more.) And his tiebreaker answer for number of nominations for The Kids Are All Right: 4. Spot on.