Which of the First-Time Nominees Will Return Soon to Oscar?

Some years ago now I did a study on how often actors win second nominations. I can't find the figures at the moment but I believe it was around 42%. Obviously it's not as many as we pretend each Oscar love-in season. Though it's arguably easier to win a second nomination than it is a first -- they're already considering you if you will -- that doesn't mean it's easy, if you get me. The Oscars are definitely a pyramid in shape. There's only one actor with 18 nominations and there are hundreds of thousands with 0. I don't mean to be a bummer, just to underline how special and rare the Oscar experience is even for celebrity actors. Lineups like Best Actress this time, which I believe has the highest average nomination count of all time in an acting shortlist, fool us into believing otherwise but the majority of first nominations are also last nominations. 

the first-timers this year that DIDN'T win: Chiwetel, Sally, Barkhad, Fassy, June*should we do a fashion post?

But let's stay optimistic!

Who among this year's first-time nominees do you think will be the first to be invited back? Explain your choice in the comments. I think I'm going with Sally Hawkins only because her work has been really solid for a long time and now that they've noticed her, perhaps a rush of even better roles will happen? It's not always easy to predict. I mean, who among us thought that Jonah Hill would be the first among the new men from the class of 2011 to do it? There's no wrong answer. At least not for another year or three. 

poll by twiigs.com

If you like this poll, there are more, you know. Vote on those, too!

Film Bitch Awards: Actor & Supporting Actor

I haven't forgotten about The Film Bitch Awards, also known as "Nathaniel's Ballot" that once grand internet tradition (14 years now, Jesus!) that has been eroded by my time management problems. But no more. I'm turning over new leaves in 2014, you'll see, and so we begin now with the catch-ups.

And now 43 words it gives me great pleasure to type...

Elyes Aguis Kyle Chandler Bradley Cooper Chris Cooper Bruce Dern Leonardo DiCaprio Paul Eenhoorn Chiwetel Ejiofor Michael Fassbender James Franco James Gandolfini Jake Gyllenhaal Tom Hanks Sergio Hernandez Oscar Isaac Hugh Jackman Jared Leto Matthew McConaughey Mads Mikkelsen Tye Sheridan and Keith Stanfield 

And that's just the cream that rose to the top for yours truly when it came time to sort out my thoughts on the best performances by men this year at the cinema. Though supporting actor was lean, the leading men more than made up for it. It was such an unusually rich year that I, the internet's ringleader for actressexuality, am arguably or at least sometimes more excited about Best Actor than Best Actress. This has little precedence.

My ballot: BEST ACTOR & BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The whys and the whos on great work from 12 Years a Slave, Nebraska, Spring Breakers, to Inside Llewyn Davis and beyond...
Three previously posted ballots: ANIMATED FEATURE, CASTING AND ENSEMBLE 

Interview: Sarah Paulson's 12 Years of Breakthroughs

There are few things in cinema more satisfying than watching those with true gifts prosper and develop. Overnight sensations are exciting but watching careers that build slowly, continually showing new facets and amassing fans piecemeal is a richer experience. Such is the case with the actress Sarah Paulson. With her key role as Mistress Epps in the likely Best Picture contender 12 Years a Slave and her starring role on the anthology series American Horror Story (returning to TV tomorrow night), it's time to get our appreciation on.

I first noticed her in that undersung fanciful homage to 1960s romcoms Down With Love (2003) though her carer stretches back into short-lived television gigs in the mid 90s. When we sat down to talk recently, I confessed to Paulson that I had been completely intimidated by her when I met her at a party for Martha Marcy May Marlene (2011). I had no explanation for this - at the time she hadn't played anything as scary as her plantation wife. "You had an inkling," she mused suggesting I had seen Mistress Epps coming.

But who could have? Who knew she had that in her?

Herewith our conversation...

NATHANIEL:  12 Years a Slave is a big moment in your career but it's not your first "breakthrough" really. I'm wondering about how you experience these things internally. When did things change for you, personally, as an artist? 

Sarah Paulson & Jessica Lange. They've got history

Click to read more ...

Online Film Critics Society chooses 12 Years a Slave

Tim here - I won't keep you very long, since it's just another damn critics' award, but the OFCS has announced its winners this morning, with 12 Years a Slave winning five times, including only the second award that Michael Fassbender has received from any group to date. The asterisk here is that Her wasn't made widely available to the membership at large before the conclusion of voting, and it's the kind of film that tends to do well with OFCS.

The full list:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature: The Wind Rises
Best Film Not in the English Language: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Best Documentary: The Act of Killing
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Editing: Gravity
Best Cinematography: Gravity

Special Awards:
Best Sound Design and Best Visual Effects to Gravity
To Roger Ebert, for inspiring so many of our members

Top Ten films Without a U.S. Release:

Closed Curtain
Gloria
Like Father, Like Son
Our Sunhi
R100
The Rocket
Stranger By the Lake
We Are the Best!
Le Week-End
Why Don’t You Play in Hell?

Podcast: A Nebraskan Thanksgiving!

Happy Holiday Podcast!

In this week's episode, Nathaniel, Katey and Nick prepare for the impending Thanksgiving dinners by sharing our favorite turkeys (movies) and succulent hams (actors). We answer reader-submitted questions on topics ranging from Jennifer Lawrence's meteoric rise to fame, through Michael Fassbender's decision not to campaign for Oscar and on to confessions about nominated movies and performances we've never seen. Plus: Nathaniel and Katey share celebrity run-ins with Melissa Leo (Prisoners) and Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said)

But we begin by taking a black and white road trip to Best Picture hopeful Nebraska with Alexander Payne as tour guide. (Nick doesn't like the way he drives but Katey and Nathaniel enjoy the view) 

You can listen at the bottom of the post or download it on iTunes. Join in the conversation in the comments.

Nathaniel and Katey (& their friend Rob in the middle) November 2012

We also briefly mention last year's Fox Searchlight Holiday party (as well as this year's) and our friend Rob so I thought I'd include this photo that Katey and I took there a year ago. 

A Nebraskan Thanksgiving