How We Did On Our Predictions! How About You?
Tuesday, January 24, 2012 at 12:16PM I am not one to put too much stock in "scores" for Oscar Predictions. It's more exciting to predict something fewer people saw coming and this is why, I think I'm much better at "year in advance" predictions than most pundits; I don't always embrace the "sounds good on paper" options. But there's a flip side! My willingness to take risks always hurts my stats somewhere down the line. Nevertheless we have to take stock. It's fun to survey where you soared and plummeted each year. On average I'm completely happy with my track record. Here are my hits and misses!
I had a sensational batting average with Moneyball
My Perfect Scores
Supporting Actress. I knew Janet McTeer was stronger than people were guessing. She's a gender bender and Oscar loves drag. She totally steals the movie and Oscar loves Grand Theft Movie. Plus, it's a moving role with modern resonance.
Best Director. I figured Terrence Malick was too much of a god among directors for his peers to pass up.
Cinematography. Though I'll readily admit that this didn't feel too terribly tough to predict.
Moneyball and The Artist and Hugo and A Separation. I guessed their every placement correctly...which seemed risky with two of them.
Incorrect Guess That I Was Still Kinda Right About
I knew that if Rooney Mara prevailed it'd be Tilda taking the dive. Tilda Swinton joins Sally Hawkins from Happy Go Lucky in the exclusive sorority of "People With More Precursor Notices Than One Could Possibly Dream of But No Oscar Follow Up" ...It's a very long name for a very tiny club.
Abject Failure
Wow did I ever miss on Original Song this year. Even with five guesses I couldn't manage 1 correct one. But then, this category is the worst. The documentary branch and the foreign film branch get the most push back each year on needing guidance and rule adjustments but it's actually the music branch that's in dire need of infrastructure work. More on that in the podcast (coming in a couple of hours. It's uploading). I also made a mess of the Documentary Feature category where I only guessed 2 correctly (Pina and Paradise Lost 3).
The Single Thing I Feel Stupidest About Missing
John Williams double nomination for score. I only guessed War Horse. I predicted him to get his umpteenth double nomination for practically the whole year until the precursors and other pundits convinced me to jump on the Dragon Tattoo train which I never felt right about (in that particular category) since Reznor & Ross's Oscar success with The Social Network felt like such a wonderful anomaly. Wonderful anomalies rarely repeat themselves.
The Long Shot I Most Wish I'd Predicted for Bragging Rights
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. In retrospect it'll feel kind of obvious to people especially since Supporting Actor felt unstable beyond Plummer. And here we have a legendary actor in a mute role (when does Oscar not go for that?)
Something I Both Overestimated and Underestimated.
The Power of The Weepie. I put all my eggs in The Help's basket but War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close both ate into the demographic that Mark Harris amusingly dubbed "tear duct based voters"
My Stats
37/44 in the big eight categories
74/104 in the categories everyone tries to predict... the sound-based categories just destroyed me!
83/119 if you include the shorts which many people don't bother with.
How'd you do?
*purists (you know who you are!) may quibble that I predicted only 6 Best Picture nominees. But hello the number is a separate guess from the titles ;) I listed them in order of likelihood "if 6 nominees then... if 7 nominees then... if 8 nominees then... " etcetera which means I scored 8/9 for the Best Picture nominations. Ta da! If you don't count it that way it penalizes the people who guess fewer and awards the scaredy-cats who guess ten spots to cover all their bases.
Reader Comments (38)
One of my favorite moments of the morning, aside from the ninth Picture fakeout, was the fact that all of Harvey's nominees have their reactions out immediately for the press while the rest are trickling in (that man knows the AMPAS game).
I feel best about Supporting Actress-I changed to McCarthy at the last minute, figuring that in any other circumstance with those kinds of precursors and "star is born" buzz she'd get in, and I just needed to disregard the genre.
Thing I felt worst about-I had both A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita in my predix until I dropped A Cat in Paris due to lack of buzz. I'm bummed I didn't stick to the "if in doubt, go foreign" mentality of the Animation branch.
Girl, you know I love you, but if you predicted six movies to get nominated, you didn't get eight correct. Guessing the number was part of the guessing this year. At least asterisk that shit, or I'll start posting about how ohmygodyoutotallyhateMeryl! thatswhyyoualwaysloveonher!
Just totaled up my predictions: overall, including the short film categories, I got 77/119: not as good as your total Nat, but I'm happy since I've done better than most other years =)
73/104, one less than all my favorite bloggers/predictors. Shoot!
The only category I was 5/5 in was Director. 8/9 in Best Picture. 0/5 in Original Song, like you. I'm proudest of the 4/5 in the unpredictable Foreign Language (had Pina getting the nom with Bullhead as my alternate).
About that FL category, I'm not sure obviously, but I think today's nominations might support the idea that A Separation was one of the Executive Committee's saves. The special committee has put in two Executive Committee picks the past two years and Bullhead is the only obvious one this year. I'm thinking that there was another, more normal film like A Separation or Footnote that didn't quite top the general voters' top six films heading into the shortlist.
Pretty sure official protocol should be as he did numbering 6-10. Otherwise, just predict 10 and your odds are great! Guessing the number just has to be bonus or something.
I had perfect scores in Director, Actress, and Cinematography. I predicted von Sydow for Supporting Actor, but I, like most, had Brooks in the mix and not Nolte, so I was 4/5 there.
And a side note: there was no way that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was randomly selected as the last of the Picture nods to be announced. Everything else may have been random, but they were totally going for that "let's make 'em gasp" moment, of which there seemed to be several.
As for my tallies:
Big Eight: 35/44
Everyone Predicts Them: 72/104
All Categories: 81/119
I have no skills in predicting anything but the worse. I'm really glad for Midnight in Paris and The Tree of Life not peaking too early for Oscar.
35/44 in the big eight, 5/5 in Director and Adapted Screenplay. I thought only six films would get nominated for Picture.
So, instead of finally giving Tilda that damn Best Leading Actress nomination, they make Glenn Close sit through yet another loss. It's even worse than War Horse in BP. But I'm glad for Bridesmaids, A Separation and Tinker Tailor, though Art Direction should have been an easy get for Tinker.
With the exception of Young Adult, I can proudly say every prediction I made in the comments on this site came true. From the surprising Extremely Loud Best Picture nomination to the less surprising Melissa McCarthy nomination to the wild speculation about foreign language animation breaking through (not to mention Close getting the "congrats on making your dream project" nod and The Help not being nominated for its terrible screenplay), this site brings out the best in my prognosticating.
I thought predictions overall were OK ...
Sorry Close took Tilda's place ... I'd rather have seen Patton take Hill's place...
Glad that The Help did not get a lot of love ....
Happy Nolte took Brooks's place
Bridesmaids is a total waste of space on the ballots , esp. McCarthy...IMO
Sorry... In the prior blog I said predictions instead of nominations......
Tilda's snub is, on paper, the most egregious ever. Funny thing is, I've been predicting Rooney Mara over her for the last few months. Sad to be right though.
isn't it kind of strange that this is the *4th* (!!) year in a row that oscar has nominated two supporting actresses from the same movie? 2009 was Doubt, 2010 was Up in the Air, 2011 was The Fighter, and now 2012 with The Help. once in awhile is always kind of fun (especially when the possiblity arises in lead categories), but four years in a row is a bit much.... and a pretty blatant signal that academy voters are trending toward a discouraging lack of imagination when it comes to identifying superb performances in a wide range of movies....
Thing I'm most proud of: Sticking to my guns on The Tree of Life in Picture and Director (I overestimated it slightly, putting it in Editing too, but who cares!)
Thing I'm least proud of: Best Supporting Actor. I sucked that one big time, only getting Branagh and Plummer, although I figured Hill would get in (I just REALLY didn't want him to).
Thing I'm kicking myself most for #1: Veering from SAG and thinking Demian Bichir didn't stand a chance. That was the first screener out and he got a "surprise" SAG nod: the same path Melissa Leo took for Frozen River. I had Michael Shannon instead.
Thing I'm kicking myself most for #2: I got the number of Best Picture nominees right, but the actual nominees wrong (I succumbed to Dragon Tattoo's guild showing instead of going with my heart and Extremely Loud, and had Bridesmaids as my alternate)
Thing I'm kicking myself most for #3: Young Adult instead of A Separation as my "out there" choice for Original Screenplay; I actually stuck with Margin Call!
Thing I still hope I'm right about: I predicted Jessica Chastain would get in for anything BUT The Help (partly as a joke and partly to be contrary). Her nominee picture was actually from The Tree of Life. I am expecting a "Sorry! We goofed on the announcement!" press release from AMPAS any moment now...
I only do the "big ten" categories (picture, director, acting, writing, editing, cinematography) because I feel I just don't know enough about the rest. I got 41/54.
In regards to Williams, he now has 47 nominations, 12 less than Walt Disney. Assuming he gets nominated for Lincoln next year (it may be a year out, but I think this is a safe assumption), he'll have 48 nominations. He'll turn 80 this year-anyone think he gets to 59? He'd have to stay active for the next decade, and Spielberg wouldn't be able to take time off between films, but it's theoretically possible, especially if he doubles up a few more times.
I suppose that I did OK in the nominations, even if I only predict in what I call the "Big Six" categories (Picture, Director, 4x acting) plus Foreign-language Film (where I often have a local horse in the race, so to speak).
Best Picture: Predicted seven nominees, six of which were nominated. Missed on "EL&IC" (now I guess I have to go and see it!), "War Horse" and "ToL." I did predict "TTSS" (wish fulfillment).
Best Director: 4/5; I had Fincher instead of Malick.
Best Actor: 4/5; I had Shannon instead of Bechir.
Best Actress: 4/5; I had Theron instead of Mara. (I had never felt the spark for nominating Tilda for that particular film, don't know why...but I was right.)
Best Supporting Actor: 3/5; I had Albert Brooks and Corey Stoll instead of Nolte and von Sydow.
Best Supporting Actress: 3.5/5; I had Woodley instead of McTeer, and also had Chastain for "Take Shelter" (more wish fulfillment).
Best Foreign-language Film: 4/5; I had "Pina" instead of "Footnote."
Somewhere Sally Hawkins and Bjork and embracing Tilda Swinton as they welcome her into the saddest best actress nomination snub in movie history. In the meantime, Glenn Close is preparing her "always a bridesmaid, never a bride" face for when they DON't call her name.
*is that so wrong" -- INTERESTING STATISTIC. i am stealing it now for the charts ;)
denny -- sorry we goofed from the Academy would be HILARIOUS... and also would never happen.
It's so funny, supporting actress seemed to be the most competitive category, but it ended up being the easiest to predict.
Also, I found it funny that Jessica Chastain was in so many movies this year that she even messed up the Academy! Has that ever happened before? The wrong picture being put up?
At first I wasn't sure if he just said the wrong movie, like they put it wrong on the monitor, or they were just dumb and got a picture from the wrong movie.
Rooney Mara's nomination seemed like such a sure thing to me. Hardly anyone had seen Tilda's movie + she's been better in the past two years and wasn't nominated then, right?
Plus, Dragon Tattoo was ripe for gaining somewhere, after all, as it was sweeping the guilds. And I was pretty sure Rooney Mara's "bad interviews" wouldn't hurt her... that's the kind of thing that the blogosphere over-emphasizes. And plus, the "Rooney is a brick wall / bitch / unapproachable / conceited" stuff was being brought up after the ballots were already due.
Yes, come come, my dear, you can't claim to have aced Best Pic. Though I don't really geek out over correct predictions, that's the one arena in which I have a little room to boast!
sorry..."Aced" was the wrong word
nathaniel -- i thought you'd like that, and am happy to help! interesting to note also that all four of those films with double-dip supporting actress nominees all had at least one nominated in one of the lead categories. you'd think this trend would favor more ensemble-friendly efforts.... but apparently not. makes me wonder why voters don't have the itch to spread the wealth out to equally (if not more) deserving stand-out performances in different films.
I do not see how a movie "Extremely Loud..." can get a Best Picture nom and not have ONE other nom except in BSA category????????
whoops.... scratch The Fighter from that statistic about leads (*hangs head in trivia shame*) but still.... three noms for one movie!
Rick-there's actually a pretty rich history of such a thing. In fact, two years ago both The Blind Side and A Serious Man got nominated for Best Pic with only one other nomination.
Kurt -- so you're a purist then? But who is with me that penalizing people who gave a lower number guess for "total best pic nominees" is unfair to people who merely guessed all ten to cover their bases? That way if next year there were only 5 nominees the person who guessed 10 will undoubtedly have a richer score than the person who only guessed 5. That seems highly suspect!
i think the way i predicted should be correct if 6 then... if 7 then... if 8 then... and your "stat" is how well you did at the cut off point. Not that I care about stats. I literally only do two post about this each year and that was one of them ;)
Excluding doc and shorts, I only got 65 right out 99 noms. My perfect score is Foreign Language while I got fucked up in Original Song 0 out of 2.
I feel proud to include Loud and Close in my Best Pic and Supp Actor predictions although I feel bad leaving out The Tree of Life in the last minute.
fun fact if it has not been said here before: that Brad Pitt and Viola Davis star in 2 Best Pic nominees each. Meanwhile Sandra Bullock stars in 2 Best Pic nominees in the last 2 years (not to forget Crash too). Has our Miss Congeniality become a charm like what Guy Pearce did to The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech?
John T
Thanks for responding ... I do realize this has happened through the years.. I have a Oscar History book; and I even checked back to the early Oscars, and it had often happened before.
I guess iI can't understand how a movie is NOT the sum of its parts???
I do like your logic...
@Rick
I never really understood your way of thinking and why people say this.like, a movie can be great without being seperately brilliant in all it's different parts. there's so many movies in a year with there own seperate accomplishments. I'm always left sad when i see films rack up a helluva amount of nominations just because it was a film in oscar contention. Its why the curious case of benjamin button, true grit, and hugo are so bulky in their nominations. good thing dreamgirls didnt get in:) thats why there are different categories for different acheivements, because differrent films excel at different things.
To be fair to Rick, I was shocked Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close didn't get a Sound Mixing or Sound Editing nomination, as well. The film is nothing without the sound design.
I got 74/104 too! with only 35/44 in the majors. The only category I got perfect was Director, and I'm kind of embarrassed by that. But it seems like 74 is the number to have.
I also took a look at my super dumb predictions that I made all the way back in February or March and I was 23/102 and I was 2/3 in Makeup! Weird. I think I'm ultimately saddened by this year, but my Tree of Life got in, so I'm thrilled.
Tilda Swinton joins Sally Hawkins from Happy Go Lucky in the exclusive sorority of "People With More Precursor Notices Than One Could Possibly Dream of But No Oscar Follow Up" ...It's a very long name for a very tiny club.
I actually believe this is called "Club Giamatti," formed in January 2005.
To Poppy
I have no idea of what you are saying or trying to say... Sorry.
86/119 in total. Funny how one category I only got perfect is Cinematography. And how I did 4/5 in Animated Shorts and Live Action Shorts is beyond me.
Overall 78/101. My best categories were best actor and best supporting actress (5/5 in each); the worst was animated feature with 2/5. Would have done better overall if I'd completed full slates of predictions for the sound categories...