Best Actor Battles and Hugh Jackman's Oscar Obstacle
Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 12:22PM Though most of my Oscar prediction chart updates have to wait for today's screening of Zero Dark Thirty (eeeeeeee! Bring it, Bigelow) it was safe to go ahead and revamp the Best Actor chart since Jessica Chastain can't compete there without significant alternate universe alterations. The chart has all new text, new rankings, links to reviews and past articles, and thoughts on locks, dark horse campaign angles. There's also an extensive list of vote siphoners that probably won't factor in but for random ballots from their most ardent admirers. That doesn't mean they aren't worthy of attention. It never does and never will since "Best" will always remain in the eye of the beholder.
HUGH vs. DANIEL
This weekend's debut of Les Misérables sent numerous industry professionals and media types (including myself) into a frenzy. (lots more after the jump)
The film has the truly epic scale and all-caps Artistry that AMPAS often seems created just to honor. Though Anne Hathaway is the film's surest best for Oscar glory, there's been a smaller flurry of excitment for a truly bold suggestion that Hugh Jackman will prove to be Daniel Day-Lewis's true rival for 2012 Best Actor glory.
Frank Digiacoma at MovieLine writes:
Jackman gives his all in this movie, and his performance is a tour de force of passion in the same way that Daniel Day-Lewis' portrayal of Abraham Lincoln is a triumph of precision. At this point, the Best Actor race is all about them.
Many pundits would argue this isn't bold so much as obvious, given the ecstatic reception. I think it a bold suggestion not for its content (I absolutely believe it to be true IF he's nominated) but for the depressing possibility that he might not even be nominated. Best Actor can be an infuriatingly bland category and the Academy has not, as a general rule, been kind to male leads of musicals... a genre often viewed as "feminine" , however silly and retrograde that gender stereotype may be. In the 84 year history of the Oscars many male musical leads have been snubbed (including, recently, Ewan McGregor and Richard Gere in Best Picture nominees with plentiful nominations and Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine... though the latter was one of DDL's very infrequent critical misses) and only three have won Best Actor for musical roles:
- James Cagney, Yankee Doodle Dandy (1942)
- Yul Brynner, The King and I (1956)
- Rex Harrison, My Fair Lady (1964)
Hard boiled Cagney had the advantage of playing against type (a dependably strong Oscar hook) in a biopic (inarguably Oscar's favorite genre). Striking Brynner had considerable momentum having already played the role to über acclaim on stage and just impeccable timing since he was co-starring in another best picture blockbuster nominee (The Ten Commandments) that very same year, and finally Rex Harrison won at the peak of the form's popularity with Oscar voters. A Jackman win would put a happy end to a nearly half century drought for lead actors in musicals.
Joel Grey was the last man to win for a musical, 40 years ago.If you include Supporting Actors it's still a dire statistic in terms of win. No man has won for a musical role since Joel Grey in Cabaret (1972) and only six men have been nominated in either category in the 40 years since: Roy Scheider couldn't manage a win for All That Jazz (1979) and he had the advantage of celebrity biopic mimicry... though that was admittedly much less of an automatic Oscar draw in the 70s than it is now; Charles Durning couldn't win for his brilliant cameo in The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas despite also adding wonderful notes to Tootsie and somehow the great Robert Preston in Victor/Victoria (1982) also lost that year; John C Reilly couldn't win for Chicago (2002) though co-starring in three Best Picture nominees that year undoubtedly secured that nomination to begin with; Eddie Murphy couldn't win despite an electric comeback performance in Dreamgirls (2006) that was obviously superior to the winning role; and finally Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd (2007) was lucky to be nominated and still riding momentum from his career peak in the mid Aughts.
All that said, Jackman's performance is a sensation, the role he was obviously born to play, and few Oscar statistics can hold forever. If Academy voters get antsy about handing Daniel Day Lewis more Best Actor Oscars than anyone else ever -- yes, even more than Jack Nicholson, their all time favorite actor -- we could see a thrilling end to a 40 year Oscar drought for men in musicals. Do you think he will?
Assuming Hugh Jackman is as locked and loaded as Daniel, Denzel and Joaquin (a risky assumption) that leaves just one spot up for grabs in the shortlist. If Silver Linings' Bradley Cooper or Amour's Jean Louis Tritnigant can't rally as dark horse spoilers, does it go to John Hawkes in The Sessions or Sir Anthony Hopkins as Hitchcock? I'd love to hear your thoughts. It's trickier than you might think. Hawkes has better reviews (for the performance and the film) but neither movie has exactly set the world ablaze and if there's anything Oscar loves more than Best Actors With a Disability its Best Actors in Prosthetics Mimicking Famous People... particularly actors they already think the world of.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on which five men will hear their names called on January 10th and whether or not Hugh Jackman can end that 40 year drought for musical men.
Reader Comments (72)
BTW Nathaniel - Christoph Waltz is also competing as a lead actor:
http://www.goldderby.com/news/3570/django-unchained-christoph-waltz-oscars-lead-entertainment-news-41738295.html
I guess the final five will be:
Jackman
Lewis
Phoenix
Washington
Hopkins
I've read a lot buzz about Les Mis these days, and still can't decided Jackman or Lewis. Have not seen any of films yet, though my preds are more like hopes :))
The Best Actor competition this year is total GROUP SEX, isn't it?
I mean, Gosh... who to choose?
I see Oscar doesn't like male leads in musicals, but I disagree with this theory that these actors get snubbed because this genre is more feminine.
Let me ask you, how many male leads have won for westerns, a very masculine genre? John Wayne only, maybe.
I think the reason so few actors win in lead for musicals it is because AMPAS is not fond of GENRE performances, and everything but straight dramas and biopics is genre for them.
Among the genres, comedies and musicals sometimes get awards traction, but it's still un uphill battle to win in acting, at least lead acting.
Since Bullock I consider the race as a sympathy contest more than anything else. Jackman is charming and if Les Misérables is as mesmerizing as it looks, he might be the one to break that sexist and homophobic tradition regarding musicals.
Having said that, I'll add that I have a thing for lost causes so I'm instinctively rooting for Phoenix and Trintignant.
I wasn't saying anything about Bullock's or Jackman's acting. I was just saying LIKEABILITY did/could put them over the top.
cal: Four Best Actor Oscars have been given out for performances in Westerns: Warner Baxter (In Old Arizona), Gary Cooper (High Noon), Lee Marvin (Cat Ballou), and John Wayne (True Grit). That actually compares favorably to the number of Westerns that have won Best Picture: Cimarron, Dances With Wolves, and Unforgiven. (I don't consider No Country for Old Men a "Western.") The paucity of Best Picture Westerns during the Western's heyday leads to one inescapable conclusion: the Academy doesn't like Westerns.
I count ten musicals that have won Best Picture, and, possibly bolstering Nat's point, it may be worth noting that only three of them yielded Best Actor nominations for their leads: Going My Way (for both Bing Crosby and Barry Fitzgerald—Bing won), My Fair Lady (Rex Harrison, who won), and Oliver! (Ron Moody). That being said, only four of those musicals yielded Best Actress nominations (The Broadway Melody, The Great Ziegfeld, The Sound of Music, Chicago), which gives us a statistically insignificant difference in the penis vs. vagina stakes on that score.
But, hey, only three actress won in lead for musicals, same number of men:
Liza Minnelli, Cabaret
Barbra Streisand, Funny Girl
Julie Andrews, Mary Poppins
And only two women won in supporting!
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
I think that confirms my theory that it's not a question of gender, but a question of genre.
You may find more nominations for women in musicals, but considering most musicals are actually female-centered, I just don't see this hate for men in musicals beyond the natural hate for any actor in non-dramas.
I've had the five nominees as being this for weeks now, and I doubt I'll change my predictions unless something really wonky happens in the critcs awards and such (or Hugh Jackman severely disappoints):
LEAD ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
That lineup feels very right to me, and something tells me that "Hitchcock" is going to be a dud. Maybe Helen Mirren squeaks by in a WEAK year for lead actress, but otherwise, I can see them snubbing Anthony Hopkins fairly easily. "Les Miserables" should be too big to ignore for multiple acting nods. All Hugh Jackman has to do is at least meet his middling expectations head on. If he surpasses them, all the better for his first nod. Daniel Day-Lewis and Denzel Washington have more than made their cases known. Third wins for either? That's a tough one. I'd say Day-Lewis over Denzel just b/c the former's going to be in a BP frontrunner over the latter where he could be the single nominee for his film. I hope John Hawkes makes the cut. He was so good in "The Sessions." And he made Helen Hunt bearable! Miracles do happen in life. Too bad for the poor box office, but that's not a complete obstacle. That's the beauty of screeners (ask Demian Bichir about that)! If Joaquin Phoenix had kept his mouth shut, he could be looking at a win (and for my money, Phillip Seymour Hoffman should be right here alongside him). Now, he's lucky that he hasn't pissed off enough voters to get in. But I think most will rise above that and vote for him anyway. If they can give Brando and Scott Oscar wins after their disses, they can at least nominate Phoenix. (And let's not forget that Hopkins has made some similar stinging comments about Academy campaigning and such . . . fairly convenient if you ask me for a multiple nominee and former winner. What does he have to lose really?). I'd say that already having seen 80% of these contenders, if that ends up being the final five, it'll be the strongest the category's been in SO LONG.
cal: Luise Rainer won Best Actress for The Great Ziegfeld, although I have to plead ignorance as to how musical the film is or how much singing (if any) Rainer performed. And in Supporting, you criminally omitted Rita Moreno (West Side Story).
J.P.--- but that is SPECIFICALLY my point. They preference all these other things. (note that both Ewan and John Cameron Mitchell were shut out that year for musicals and they're both way superior to Crowe & Penn's hammy tics.) They do NOT preference Men in Musicals. My theory is that it is not valued due to gender politics. The same way that men in romantic dramas have a much much harder time getting nominated than their female co-stars.
Research time, nominations in musicals
Nominations:
Deborah Kerr in The King and I
Judy Garland in A Star is Born
Debbie Reynolds in the Unsinkable Molly Brown
Julie Andrews in Mary Poppins
Julie Andrews in The Sound of Music
Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl
Liza Minnelli in Cabaret
Ann-Margret in Tommy
Julie Andrews Victor Victoria
Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge
Renee Zellweger in Chicago
vs
Maurice Chevalier in The Love Parade
Mickey Rooney Babes in Arms
James Cagney in Yankee Doodle Dandy
Bing Crosby in Going My Way
Barry Fitzgerald in Going My Way
Gene Kelly in Anchors Aweigh
Dan Dailey in When My Baby Smiles At Me
Yul Brynner in The King and I
Ron Moody in Oliver
Topol in Fiddler in the Roof
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd
It's 11 to 11 in nominations and 4 (male) to 3 (female) in wins (count Bing Crosby).
Oscar may have snubbed some leading actors in Leading but... facts are facts. And they snubbed some fine performances by actresses in musicals, like Bjork, Beyoncé, Amy Adams...
J.P.: It is not a musical performance. The same way James Mason was nominated by a musical but his performance is not musical, and then I have not counted him.
I forgot My Fair Lady, so it's 12 to 11 for men!
B U T,
If you place these nomination in a timeline, you realize that males in musicals were more nominated. After The King and I, we've had only three actors nominated, but we've had 10 actresses!
In wins, it's still 4/3.
I see your point when we're talking about romantic dramas, but musicals are trickier than that.
at this point i'm predicting: DDL, Washington, Phoenix as the safe bets and Jackman, Hawkes, and Cooper fighting for the last 2 slots. My faith on Hopkins is gone since most of the reviews have been so-so.
As for the win i'm really not sure if the academy members will be able to give either Daniel or Denzel a 3rd oscar so soon, especially when Meryl won her 3rd after almost 30 years =/
Nat: Okay, point taken. But putting it like that—that they don't preference men in musicals in the same way that they have a bias against comedies or westerns—is a much different cast than saying that singing and dancing leading men are discriminated against out of some kind of heterosexual male panic, which is sort of how you originally stated it.
cal: Okay. But when did Barry Fitzgerald sing in Going My Way? And if that movie counts as a musical, why not Walk the Line (Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Witherspoon) or Coal Miner's Daughter (Sissy Spacek) or Crazy Heart (Jeff Bridges)? You see where this is going.
Still, count Going my Way out. It is still 10-11 in nominations and 3-3 in wins. Not counting biopics with music and untrue musicals, I mean. The point is the same. Historically, it is harder for men to get nominations in musicals than it is for women.
Right now my Best Actor line up includes some unseen, but what I feel will be the reaction of both AMPAS and the audience.
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Christopher Waltz, "Django Unchained"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
cal: Also keep in mind you only counted lead performances. In Supporting, I count at least 11 men nominated for musical performances in musicals (not sure about Walter Huston in Yankee Doodle Dandy or Stuart Erwin in Pigskin Parade). For women, I count eight musical performances in musicals, although it's nine if you want to count Ronee Blakley in Nashville. (But then I don't see how movies like Coal Miner's Daughter and Walk the Line AREN'T counted as musicals.) And the women's tally doesn't include non-singing roles in musicals like Jean Hagen in Singin' in the Rain or Gladys Cooper in My Fair Lady.
Nat: Have you seen Killing Them Soflty? Shouldn't Brad Pitt push for a supporting nod?
Oh boy, I meant it is NOT harder for men to get nominated for musicals,; considering the numbers. Sorry
HUGH JACKMAN was a huge surprise in Les Miserable. He was EXCELLENT. I loved his performance, he was AHHH-MAZING!
I WISH THE PEOPLE COULD VOTE GLOBALLY ON THE BEST ACTOR, because if it were up to the people, Hugh Jackman would be the ultimate winner. He is loved by many.
If Daniel Day Lewis wins its more political since Steven Spielberg is the director. He did a great job; however the film LINCOLN put me to sleep. SOOOOO boring. Beautiful picture, but soooo boring. I do not think all aspects of Lincoln were covered in this film. Also, I liked Daniel Day Lews in the other films he performed.
THE OSCAR WINNER FOR BEST ACTOR SHOULD GO TO HUGH JACKMAN!!!