April Foolish Predictions: Best Picture
Tuesday, April 3, 2012 at 9:17PM 
Every year in the first week of April we try to mentally project ourselves forward several months. This is not easy to do due to the pesky problem of films being so much different on screen than they are "on paper". Drama is Oscar's favorite category and the year has already produced two hit dramas in The Grey and The Hunger Games, one a surprise the other a bonafide phenomenon but they're both essentially genre movies so that's one strike against them. And they'll be old news when voting occurs. Strike two.
We're projecting forward anyway.
The Oscar race doesn't actually begin until summer's end anyway when media and pundit types (guilty!) get all respective about 'the year thus far'. At that point box office and critical heat will hopefully combine for one or two of the blockbusters or sleepers and give us our first real contenders. Fans who never forgave the Academy for leaving The Dark Knight out of the 2008 Best Picture field will surely hope that the magic strikes again for The Dark Knight Rises but I personally can't see it happening. It would have to surpass that film, I think, and even if it does it won't have the unrepeatable tragic connections that elevated the reception of the earlier film. Since I'm doubtful that that could possibly happen and don't particularly think Oscar should feel guilty about that omission (I'm much more pissed that WALL•E missed the list that year) I'd rather dream about an Oscar bid for a certain wild-haired princess. Can Pixar regain their "do no wrong" magic with Brave or did that era run out of gas [*cough Cars 2*] or will Merida strike a bullseye? Sorry to mix metaphors but archery is so hot this year (see also: The Avengers and The Hunger Games).
Late year curiousity and prediction battles after the jump
I always hope for a few summer hopefuls because opening gifts all year round is way more satisfying than gorging at Christmas. But as for usual the studios don't like to play my reindeer games so this year is (currently) crazy backloaded with both the big blockbuster hopefuls and the risky artistic efforts all aiming for the same crowded weekends right round the Christmas tree.
Potential Oscar Hopefuls Pre-September
The Grey (Jan), The Hunger Games (Mar), Brave (June), Prometheus (June), Beasts of the Southern Wild (June), Magic Mike (June. Best Lack of Costume Design. shut up. I'm excited) and The Dark Knight Rises (July)
Projecting forward now.... hurry, Nathaniel, hurry.
We'll get to the actress categories soon but right now we're talking Best Pictures. Some invented battles I'm personally curious about.
Classic Books + Visual Director Vs. Classic Book + Visual Director
The Great Gatsby vs. Anna Karenina. Both Baz Luhrmann and Joe Wright have directed Best Picture nominees without a companion Best Director nomination (for Moulin Rouge! and Atonement respectively). Follow up films disappointed or were interesting diversions but will classic source material inspire awesome visuals and great performances? Both projects are risky given that current audiences prefer genre fiction to classic literature. I'm not sure The Great Gatsby can make a great movie but Baz is a fascinating director so cross your fingers. Anna Karenina has been filmed many times so Joe Wright has just as difficult a challenge. How to make this film stand apart from the costumed adaptation crowd?
True Life Period Thriller Vs. True Life Contemporary Thriller
Ben Affleck's third directorial effort Argo, which looks at the daring rescue of US diplomats from Iran in 1979, arrives in September. Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty, which looks at the Navy Seal mission to kill Osama Bin Laden, arrives a few months later in December. Audiences have been resistant to Middle East centric American films up to now but that might change. I wonder how much box office pull Bigelow will have post Oscar win (I imagine The Hurt Locker has millions of new fans after a few years on DVD) but in this Oscar battle I think Ben Affleck is the more likely player. He has the advantage of momentum since people really loved The Town but he still seems like he's on his way up. Bigelow has the disadvantage of having to follow up a film which was widely regarded as a masterpiece. Being directly compared with The Hurt Locker is not a challenge most films would like to face; they'd lose.
The War of the Weinstein Stable Mates
Weinstein history and their preferred release strategy (last minute) suggests that Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained is their preferred pony this year but I'm bearish on that one. Isn't this one closer to his Grindhouse / Kill Bill self ... the self Oscar ignores? Still, it might be tough to ignore this southern Western about a freed slave on a quest to save his wife from a Plantation owner if it sparks as much discussion and fan enthusiasm as Inglourious Basterds did. The company proved once again this past year that they know how to push their movies to glory (see: The Iron Lady, The Artist... even W.E.'s costume nomination and Golden Globe song win) so which of their films will catch on?
Andrew Dominick's Killing Me Softly, formerly known as Cogan's Trade might be great (I personally loved The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford though I realize that's not a widespread feeling), Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master will probably be great. I mean, which of his films aren't? That's a trick question as the answer is none of the above. Finally, there's Song For Marion by a newish director but the story of a grumpy man cajoled into joining his church choir sounds like a crowd pleaser and the key cast members Terence Stamp and Vanessa Redgrave are heaven onscreen.
Crazy Expensive Thanksgiving Gamble vs. Crazy Expensive Christmas Gamble
Late in the year we get two of the most curious, most expensive, and most-likely-to-be-divisive films from two superb directors Alfonso Cúaron's Gravity and Ang Lee's Life of Pi. Gravity's principle cast is miniscule (Sandra Bullock and George Clooney floating around in space) and Cúaron is supposedly doing amazing revolutionary things with technology (and sound) and Ang Lee, whose movies are always worth seeing and sometimes straight up glorious, is adapting a seemingly unfilmable book in which a young boy is stranded in a lifeboat with a Bengal Tiger, a hyena, a zebra and an orangutan. Gravity and Pi are the two true wild cards this year in terms of practically everything but I'm feeling optimistic about both. At least in terms of quality.
What did I forget? Which Oscar fates are you most curious about?
Care to make your own predictions in the comments?
Reader Comments (40)
Any hope of Great Hope Springs being in the conversation?
Med -- i'm thinking no. I keep hearing "comedy". So i'm guessing another It's Complicated.
I'm EXTREMELY skeptical about The Great Gatsby. It just seems like a property that will encourage Luhrman to indulge all of his worst tendencies to the detriment of the actual story and themes. Plus, I'm just not feeling that cast.
I really think that David Chase movie, Never Fade Away, is going to be one to watch.
I think it'll be down to The Master vs. Gravity for my favorite film of the year, and so judging from past experience, neither has a shot at Best Picture.
I wonder if we can have a Foreign Film this year in Best Picture.
Could Marion Cotillard bring her star power to the table and grab a BP nom for Audiard's RUST AND BONE alongside her Best Actress win? I kid, I kid.
What do you, Nathaniel, think would be needed for a foreign film to get nominated?
Really surprised THE HOBBIT isn't near the top of everyone's list these days.
Nathaniel, I think LABOR DAY (Reitman + Winslet) has a great shot at several nominations, too.
I keep hearing Reitman doesn't want to push it back to 2012 but Paramount wants him to.
I have a feeling that people are underestimating Anna Karenina, we saw last yr with Tinker Tailor and with Atonement in 2007 that the British voting block can push those films into the nominates.
Though people like Life of Pi, isn't that book a little past its time? As in not as popular as say a Hunger Games when it gets released. Could that hurt the film?
The most interesting film to me on the list is Hyde Park on Hudson...I just have a hard time with seeing that film as a real Best Picture threat when there are all these other films similar (presidents, period piece, famous actors). I think it'll get some acting notice but not a Best Picture nomination
I'm interested to see what the smaller films like Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Surrogate do this year.
How will Joe Wright make his Anna Karenina stand out? Have you not been keeping up with production news? :p Most of the film was shot on an old theater stage!
Wait, do people not like The Assassination of Jesse James? I was under the impression it was actually quite well-regarded. I still see it mentioned about once a week, usually in a positive context.
I think it's even pretty high on the They Shoot Pictures Don't They? list.
Sorry, meant to acknowledge that i was nitpicking.
:)
Well, maybe it won't be good but Les Miserables is yearning to be nominated for an Oscar, even if it wasn't directed by an Oscar winner.
Is it true that Anna Karenina isn't a typical period film and some of it is set in a theater house?
I know The Hurt Locker won tons of awards but I don't think everyone thinks it's a masterpiece.
What about FROM ROME WITH LOVE? Will Woody snag another nom?
There were a couple of films that sounded interesting but weren't released in 2011, like The Wettest Country in the World with Tom Hardy (I really want to see more work from him) and Eye of the Storm with Judy Davis and Geoffrey Rush (we don't see enough of her). Will they be 2012 entries?
If Rises does 500mil (which it very well could) and garners the same rapturous reviews as The Dark Knight (which it very well could), the Academy might feel pressured. At least I hope so. And you should too, Nathaniel. After all, aren't you one to hope that the Academy doesn't only nominate Oscar bait year after year? I guess Batman isn't pretentious enough.
Keep in mind that TDK is the main reason they switched to ten nominees. Add to that the backlash from Nolan's Inception snub and I think anyone who's anyone that likes Nolan even a little bit will vote for it (assuming there's ten nominees again).
Nathaniel T- I wonder about Jesse James, too. I think Nat's right in the sense that it is definitely not as highly regarded as it should be. But I saw it pop up on a few lists here and there when people were making 'best of the decade' stuff a couple of years back. It's in the top ten of the decade for me personally.
Anna Karenina is an interesting question mark:
1. As a novel, is a difficult book to adapt, even more than "Atonement". Tolstoy's description of the Russian society and traditions are complex and varied and the inner impulses from the characters could be so hard to adapt on screen. Also, the impact of the novel in the world of the literature is huge and risky. Right now, we have 13 adaptations of "Anna Karenina" and none of them came close to the Oscars -Even when actresses like Vivien Leigh and Greta Garbo played the lead role and Garbo won the New York Critics Circle Award for Best Actress-.
2. On the opposite side, the "experimental approach" of the film -According to Joe Wright, could be so "revolutionary" by the AMPAS.
Finally, when a film is an adaptation from an iconic book / masterpiece (Examples: "Anna Karenina" and "The Great Gatsby") the risk is high and the potential failure would be bigger than expected. But... is only April...
Terrence - Les Misérables, Great Expectations, Effie and possible The Railway Man could get the British vote this year along with Anna Karenina.
My April predictions -Not in terms of winning-
1. Les Misérables: The musical is beloved and "serious" enough for AMPAS tastes. Also, even with the criticism against Hooper, the guy has a good mark for awards recognition - Daniel Deronda (BAFTA), Prime Suspect 6 (EMMY/BAFTA), Elizabeth I (EMMY, Golden Globes, BAFTA), John Adams (EMMY, Golden Globes, BAFTA), Longford (EMMY, BAFTA, Golden Globes),,, Mirren, Irons, Dancy, Broadbent, Morton, Serkis, Wilkinson, Linney, Giamatti, Firth, Bonham Carter, Rush...
2. Life of Pi: If the screenplay is good, the picture could surprise by many.
3. Django Unchained: Only because I believe The Master will be controversial enough.
4. The Silver Lining Playbook: The script is awesome and it could be succesful as a dramedy
5. Argo: Warner Bros. spot -Alt: The Gangster Squad-
6. Low Life: The film is in post-production and the subject theme is so baity. Gray is the last director for the NY trifeca -Alongside Aronofski and Bennett Miller- without an Oscar nomination.
7. Zero Dark Thirty: The Wildcard pick. Columbia biggest contender.
Three Stooges for the sweep.
Yes I forgot:
8. The Dark Knight RIses: I agree with toryt, the pressure is high for being ignored, but again, The Dark Knight Rises needs the same success as The Dark Knight
Gabriel Oak, maybe is about the critics response for the film. 97% in RT (Only one negative review by the Top critics) and 94 in Metacritic (With 13 reviews of 100)
THE BURIAL, nathaniel. THE BURIAL.
What do you guys the chances are for Stoker? It seems like a fascinating project and the script was definitely interesting...
Did I miss the memo on The Grey? How is it getting into these kinds of conversations, even as an extreme honorable mention?
"The Hobbit" a wild card? but "Gravity" is in the top 5? That's a funny way to put it :)
the fact that now we have the option of 10 Best Pic slots puts "The Hobbit" there by default.
The fact that last year they nominated 9 films, most of which mediocre, means this year we'll get the big 10 again.
I think you've greatly underestimated "Anna Karenina" and "Great Gatsby", even "Quartet"- a great opportunity for the aging Academy to prove why they are the aging Academy. I mean, look at the cast.
This might be Maggie Smith's huge comeback, a leading nom for this one and a supporting nom for "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel".
Dylan -- lol. i know that feeling.
Yavor -- but in the study AMPAS conducted itself for the past decade, there was never a year with 10 nominees by the new voting standard. There can be but it would have never happened so why this year? I would have put more stock in Quartet if it had more concrete plans (like distributor and release date)
Jonnie -- is that what they're calling Terrence Malick's now? I guess i can't really believe we'll have back to back Malicks in theaters so I'm guessing unexpected post-production delays to 2013. But even if it is released I also find it hard believing that they'd nominate back to back Malicks.
Leon -- i'm really excited for Low Life and it might be great but his films tend to get dinky releases so hopefully this one will turn out better in terms of its life in the marketplace.
tonyr -- nolan's batman is plenty pretentious ;) i was on record as saying that I wish it had been nominated (partially just to shut the internet up. partially for that reason of true phenomenons that sort of define the year are often in play and they shouldn't have biases again any genre. But do i think it was one of the 5 best pictures of 2008? No)
Danielle -- re: anna karenina. i guess i mean in terms of qualitiy and audience impact. I knew about the theater.
Life of Pi, please. It's a perfect match: Masterpiece book adapted by a master director. It could be the first 3d best picture. Unfilmable books have cruised to Oscar glory before, like The English Patient...
apparently the burial (yes, the malick project) is premiering at cannes. and it's been in the can for a while so i don't see how it won't be released by the end of the year at least. and the cast is major.
I, for one, would love to see an Ang Lee film grab a Best Picture Oscar after being denied for Crouching Tiger and Brokeback. Or at least a critical and box office success after Lust, Caution and Taking Woodstock.
What about "On the Road", Nathaniel?
The adaptation of the famous portrait of the "Beat Generation" looks good (I liked the trailer) and Walter Salles is a gifted director who already worked on The Motorcycle Diaries and Central Station. Plus, the movie has a great ensemble cast composed by Sam Riley, Garret Hedlund, Kristen Stewart (I'm not a big fan of her, but she looks good in this), Kirsten Dunst, Viggo Mortensen, Amy Adams and Steve Buscemi.
Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" was another "road movie" and while it didn't get a Best Picture nomination, it is clear for me that the movie deserved such recognition.
MAGIC MIKE for the win!!! haha
Yavor: I doubt EITHER of those will happen for Maggie Smith. Dustin Hoffman's first credited directed film (the first being uncredited co-direction work on Straight Time 34 years ago) and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. A film directed by a non-director getting into it very late in life and an insubstantial May release. Too much heat sliding toward those sounds...implausible.
Lets revist the classic text equations:
Classic Books + Visual Director + TOM STOPPARD!!!!! = one to watch!
Vs.
Classic Book + Visual Director = no contest really
My odd bets:
Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo, The Avengers. (He's the only one originating his performance in this film. He has the most to prove going in to this and he doesn't have the hindrance of that muffling mask Tom Hardy does in the other big superhero movie.)
Also Supporting Actor: Tom Cruise, Rock of Ages. (No one should expect this to be a "great" movie, and he might way overdo his role (haven't seen a show of Rock of Ages so I have no idea what the role is like on stage), but if it's a fun hit, expect people to maybe talk about him.)
Lead Actor: JGL, Looper. (I know this is a sci-fi film, but the likely underlying theme and character motivation (what counts as "suicide" when time travel is involved), seems like it MIGHT interest the Academy's actors much more than Gravity's basic "fight for survival" set-up and focus on silent imagery.)
Lead Actress: Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip (of the lighter late year fare, I'd be surprised if this didn't get at least some media attention. Plus, Seth Rogen is surprisingly fun to watch or hear (even in totally generic shlock like The Green Hornet) and usually has very good chemistry with his co-leads.)
Supporting Actress: Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. (I know this should get a critical thrashing, even if it is a hit. But if she gets strong notices and the film gets, oh, around a...70%...on Rotten Tomatoes expect buzz to start building.)
Oh, and if the Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter movie (somehow) manages to get a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, expect both Lincoln movies to be in serious Best Picture discussion. Why? Because...Lincoln.
The only one I see missing altogether that I would include in my top 15 is The Silver Linings Playbook. David O. Russell love bleeds over from The Fighter.
The Hobbit's a lock for a nomination. Definitely has a better chance at a nomination than Gatsby, which has a rather high chance of being terrible.
As a big science fiction fan and someone who liked Children of Men, it's weird saying this, but I'm kind of hoping Gravity turns out to be terrible. Yes, that sounds really strange, but the thing is if it's good, then I'll feel like I need to see it. And I just can't see myself seeing another Cuaron film after that horrifically offensive "I Am Autism" video he made (info on that here: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1935959,00.html). Unless he finally comes around and apologizes for it, in which case I'll buy my tickets to Gravity that second.
One more film that will probably be discussed at least a bit this awards season: Cloud Atlas. If it can match the creative intricacies of the book, it'd be both a major comeback story for all three of its directors and a potential shot at the Tree of Life ambitious experiment slot.
Volvagia - I saw some clip about Rock of Ages (it was an TV ad for Entertainment Tonight in my doctor's office "the shocking footage" blah blah) and I just thought NO. NO NO NO. Tom Cruise as an over the hill rocker? NO. (Although if he nails it I can see him getting traction but - god no.)
sawyer -- yeah the more i think about that one the more i shouldn't have devalued it. so i added it to the longlist underneath the chart. i hope it's great.
Right now, I'd say the most likely candidates for a win are Django Unchained, The Master, Lincoln, Anna Karenina, and maybe Gravity (if any Sci-Fi is going to make it with Oscar, it'll be a cerebral one with beloved actors). Brave also has a good chance of being nominated (though I wonder if it'll be too much like How to Train Your Dragon).
Not feeling The Great Gatsby (that book with a crazy director?) or The Dark Knight Rises.
Evan: Gravity seems more of a silent, 2001-esque kind of thematically simplistic mood piece than an outright traditional cerebral piece. Gravity is a simple fight for survival piece. If anything sci-fi this year is "cerebral", it's Rian Johnson's Looper, which, though I think it's stunningly uncommercial and very unlikely to get more than $80 million (it's a sci-fi film that's essentially about suicide) WILL be the sci-fi film in the race if it succeeds critically and commercially ($150 million or more gross with an 80% or more on Rotten Tomatoes), pushing out Gravity.
Wait, did my post never go through or is pointing out Cuaron's offensive side-projects as cause to not see his film a no-no here?