Anne vs. Amy. Oscar Chart Updates!
Sunday, August 12, 2012 at 1:55PM If anyone can threaten the widely held assumption that Anne Hathaway will win the Supporting Actress Oscar come February for dreaming that dream in time gone by in Les Misérables, isn't it Amy Adams in Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master? In the heat of August, Anne seems to have this thing sewn up. But August is August. It ain't February.
Actress Wars 2012: Anne vs. Amy
Though we haven't seen either performance yet, it's worth noting that Oscar wars are rarely won by a stand alone acting achievement. They can be, sure, but more often than not they're fought with a fluctuating combo of deft campaign tricks, strong timing, media drum beatings, general feelings for the film that houses said performance, barely acknowledged collective memories of past triumphs and defeats, preconceived notions of what the actors in questions are capable of, and other films -- particularly brand new ones or "snubbed" but beloved efforts -- that contribute to or detract from the "It's Her/His Time" argument.
So, let's discuss ANNE & AMY (&, yes, STREEP) with a fancy battle chart...
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Winner!
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| History | 1 nomination that was wholly deserved and arguably should've won.. | 3 nominations, 2 of which were wholly earned and 1 of which felt, shall we say, generous. |  |
| Snubs | Nope | Enchanted |  |
| Musical? | Oscar & Kennedy Center show-off, Judy Garland biopic dreams, Les Miz | Enchanted, plus "Into the Woods" in Central Park right now |  |
| Extra Boost | The Dark Knight Rises | Trouble With the Curve | |
| Home State | New York | Colorado | |
| Age | 29 (Oscar's actressy sweet spot!) | 38 this month (which means supporting is the best hope for an actual win now. *sigh*) | |
| Range | Genre-hops with ease though star persona (the charm offensive, 'let's put on a show!') rarely waivers. | Sweet funny naivete are the bread and butter (Junebug, Doubt, Enchanted) but lately some stretching is happening (The Fighter) |  |
| Bait | Prostitution, Maternal Grief, Death Scene, Poverty Porn, Huge Key Monologue | Supportive Wife, Other Hooks unknown at this writing | |
| Box Office | Past history of musical epics suggests anywhere from $50 to $150 million | Past history of P.T. Anderson masterpieces suggests anywhere from $25 to $50 million | |
| Lack of Divisiveness | LOL | Hugs! | |
| Oscar Love for Co-Stars | Jackman, Crowe, Seyfried, Bale, Hardy | Hoffman, Phoenix, Dern, Eastwood, Timberlake | |
| Auteur Pull | Hooper & Nolan | Anderson & Lorenz (who will be easily mistaken for Eastwood) | |
Sound off on this Battle Chart... Which category did I miss? Who wins best range? Where did I go wrong?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS CHARTS
Right now I'd bank on this race being Hathaway's to lose with Adams being her distant but foremost competitor. It's worth nothing that the rest of the field can also affect the leaders. Right now I'm predicting Helen Hunt (The Sessions is Oscar buzzing) who will probably be campaigning in Supporting, Viola Davis (Won't Back Down) via Oscar afterglow and apologia, and Olivia Williams (Hyde Park on Hudson) who seems to be at the peak of her gift these days.
LEAD ACTRESS CHARTS
In an unusual reversal from previous summertimes, when the supporting races are impossible to read and the lead battles are already somewhat summarizable, who can tell what the hell is going on with Best Actress at this point? If you click around the web, there are surely some sites who are predicting something or other in utter confidence but if so they're delusional. It's entirely up in the air. At this writing at least.
Meryl Streep. She wrote the book on Oscar, didn't she?
Nobody who has already shown themselves (Katniss, Hushpuppy, Judi Dench as Judi Dench in India!) is an obvious slam dunk and nobody yet to come feels "lock'ish" in any non-hyperbolic understanding of the word. This is not to say that it's a weak year. Let's not jump on that cliché. This is merely to say that there's not a single leading actress who should give up hope yet.
As for Meryl Streep, currently enjoying her usual "All the Oscars Belong To Her" critical reception for Hope Springs, the case is either very complicated or not complicated at all. She'll surely be gracing red carpets again if the movie is deemed a "comedy" by the Golden Globes and we already know she'll be at the Oscars to hand out Best Actor (how weird would it be if she handed a THIRD Oscar out -- oh hei Daniel! your chart gets updated soon, too -- after winning one?) but as for her own prospects...
My guess is that the double whammy of "enough already!" feeling, which she herself pointedly underlined in her Oscar speech ("Her!? Again???") combined with the Academy's largely unremarked upon habit of ignoring her when she plays "normal" women unencumbered by important lives / altered vocals (The Hours, Falling in Love, River Wild, Defending Your Life) will leave her on the outside looking in. I'm sure the Great Lady won't mind with August: Osage County right around the corner and a valid shot at tying Kate Hepburn's trophy pull. In fact, she'd be more likely to have a shot at that seemingly insurmountable record if they took a wee break from her.
But, yes, if the nominations were held right now at this very moment, Streep would have an easy in. And you'd see her competing with Quvenzhané Wallis, Jennifer Lawrence, Judi Dench and...um... Kate Beckinsale's Angry Hair.
Reader Comments (77)
I feel like there's still a surprise Lead Actress contender around the corner, but I'm buggered if I know from where. Every time I see Linney or Smith predicted (even in my own), I have this voice in my head going, "Category confusion? Ensemble-driven? Supporting for all but Bill Murray?" And I can imagine -- sight unseen, which is foolish of course -- Adams getting Lead traction for Curve but somehow overlooked for Supporting The Master. All I know is, when even Supporting Actor is undetermined this far in advance, it makes for an exciting year.
(And am I the only person who loves Adams in Doubt? My favorite performance from that year!)
Walter -- agreed. It's hard to surprise out of nowhere anymore though with 2 million oscar blogs and even more film festivals
I loved Adams in Doubt as well. (I assume that's the performance you're saying the Academy was feeling "generous" about, Nat.) She would've gotten my vote for that year by far.
FWIW, I think Wallis is a lock for Best Actress. Can't believe you don't have her in the Top 5, but maybe I'm just crazy.
I have no idea who is going to win best actress. None of these contenders seem like potential winners either. Reminds me of 2005.
You mention that It would funny for Streep to maybe give Day-Lewis his third oscar, then the next year if thinbgs pan out Him giving back the oscar to her making it four for streep.
The hours was a snub, I mean that performance was breathtaking.
And for anne and amy thing I think Amy has the biggest chances.
Correction: Defending Your Life
My fantasy scenario involves a double night of justice wins for Viola Davis in Lead for Won't Back Down and Annette Bening in Supporting for Imogene — me wanting this means it won't happen because rarely have they ever gotten both actress categories right — no one bring examples of women in the same movie winning because that doesn't count to me.
I'm on Team Hathaway. Harry's the Devil so expect an Addams win.
Long ago in MARCH I predicted Amy Adams would get nominated Lead for Trouble with the Curve AND Supporting for The Master. Maybe, just maybe, and sight unseen, that if Hathaway really is miles ahead in the supporting race, a nomination for The Master will actually support her chances in winning Lead Actress for Trouble with the Curve? It's just hard to see Streep, Wallis, Lawrence, Cotillard, Streisand or Dench actually winning this year, let alone Gyllenhaal, Wiig, or Smith in low-buzz projects. Of your 12 predicted, that really just leaves Linney, Knightley, and Adams. Who knows? Maybe little Quvanzhane will take home the gold.
I wish Nathan would let go of Knightly. She's the English equivalent of Winona Ryder with none of the potential.
Actress is interesting this year. If Knightley nails her role, she's in a really good spot. I won't be surprised if Wallis ends up my favorite pick of the year, but she has the kid factor hampering her. Adams would be smart to go lead with Trouble With the Curve, but it would need to be a hit for that kind of role to be a serious threat. Davis should really go lead - I can't tell if her film is Academy bait, but if so she could walk away with it easily. Add in Dench and that might be the five right there. Streep is obviously possible, Gallagher may also go lead for Don't Back Down, Williams is always possible though I don't know if her film pulled off the exposure, and Lawrence is tricky... I actually thought she was wonderful in the role, but blockbuster popcorn is not their wheelhouse. Cotillard in an Audiard film sounds too good to be true, but there's no way she's winning a second for another French film, probably not even a nod. Maybe Julianne Moore could sneak in and finally get her due? Can I dream?
Oh wait. I forgot about Hunt. Yeah, I think she's going lead and taking her second. Hilariously, she might get in while Dench gets bumped to sixth. So nice to have to have a situation where that 1997 wound can be retreaded!
I don't find the year as confusing
A QUESTION: Are we sure "Lowlife" is officially moved to 2013?
I do see Keira Knightley as a frontrunner for Best Actress, even though I'm totally rooting for Maggie Smith (yes, I'm biased, and I apologize);
I mean, no matter how "different" Anna Karenina might be (and mind you I don't think it will be that different) it's a classic tale, a very famous one too, and you have a HOT CHICK playing her, did someone say Oscar?
They gave Portman the Oscar for Black Swan, I don't see how Anna Karenina will shock them more than Black Swan.
I'm also part of the club that likes Amy Adams in Doubt. I think it's a great performance. Actually, I think it's my favorite performance in that film. It feels like everybody was trying to show off except for Adams.
Judi Dench as Judi Dench in India! =Hilarious!
Jordan, I did like Amy in Doubt too, but I usually love her in everything. I would kill to see her in Into the Woods. The clip I've seen of her with Denis O'Hare is marvelous!
I agree with Walter, right now Laura Linney is the "favorite" -According her status and an surprising nomination- for the win, but I think we have a surprise nominee between Venice-Toronto-San Sebastian. I think we can considerate these names:
Penélope Cruz - Twice Born (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1396226/):
I said in other posts. She has a really baity role -Pegnancy, Bosnian War, deth of his lover, deglam factor- and the best part her film is in English, so the foreign language barrier is out
Naomi Watts - The Impossible (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1649419/):
Maybe too much sci fi? But according to reports, her role in "The Impossible" is more dramatic as a victim of 2004 Tsunami and she has great chemistry with Ewan McGregor. Also, the film will have the premiere in Toronto with a date of release at December 21. Summit Entertainment is the distribuitor -The same behind Demian Bichir's Oscar nomination-
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAjQZcuweSo):
Her character is similar to Claire Danes' "Homeland" isn't it? But the teaser trailer show her as the leading character, "Hollywood Reporter" confirms that and even most of the promotionals have her as first billing. If there's an afterglow love, she could have real possibilities to the Oscars and ZDT is the biggest Columbia's Oscar player this year.
Elizabeth Olsen - Therese (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0409379/):
Maybe her 2011 snub could help her. LD Entertainment, the studio behind Albert Nobbs and Biutiful Oscar campaigns, will release the film at December and they said they have confidence in this film. If that's true, Olsen has a killer role with Jessica Lange -If she's nominated, Glenn Close must be pissed- and even Oscar Isaac are in the running.
Rachel McAdams - To the Wonder / Passion:
Maybe the question mark of these contenders, but Rachel will be the queen in Venice with two different performance. Last year, Chastain and Pitt opened the door and maybe McAdams could be the first nominated by a Malick film.
So that would be an interesting season.
For the battle between Anne and Amy, I think Anne have the edge, not only for the reasons you mention above:
a According to many twitters, Phoenix and Hoffman are receiving praise for their performances, but Adams is lefting out of the praise. Maybe she's the Bonham Carter of the season
b. Trouble with the curve is promoted more as a family feel good movie and there's no assumption of Oscar consideration by the promotion of the film. Dissapointed for this part. Even Adams is relegate as second player for the Eastwood's show
It's definitely way too early to be calling buying into any "widely held assumption" that Hathaway will win this year. Granted, I'd be surprised if she ends up without even a nomination given the nature of her performance and the pedigree of the film, but calling her the frontrunner at this point seems entirely premature. The main reason I say this is because if the movie flops with critics and at the box office, she can keep dreaming that dream, no matter how good her performance may end up being. It's not the type of performance that wins as a standalone achievement. If the reception is something along the lines of "the movie's a mess, but at least her performance is good," she'll be nominated but won't win, like Penelope Cruz in Nine.
And personally, I'm still not even sold on the idea of her performance getting across-the-board raves. I know you've said that you were wowed by her in the trailer, Nathaniel, but that feeling is not unanimous. There are already some detractors, and though they may prove to be insignificant in the long run, there's always a chance that this performance will be divisive, because it's easy to imagine some critics complaining of it being way too baity or showy.
As for The Master, I believe at this point that it has a legitimate shot of being the first movie since Network to win three acting prizes. I don't think it will happen, but it's certainly in the running for the win in Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress as of right now. That will likely change once more competition starts to arrive in the supporting categories though (I do believe, however, that Phoenix will be in the running up until the end, even if he doesn't ultimately win the Oscar).
Amy Adams. Ewww. Why wont she just go away?!
How did I not realize Chastain was a possible lead in Zero Dark Thirty? That's all kinds of awesome. Here's hoping for nomination #2.
I forgot the Malick film too, but his actors never get nodded. (Chastain is a great example - still sad she was nodded for the wrong film.)
Deer hunter? One true thing? Music of the heart?
But I do agree a nomination this year may hurt August Osage County.... And the wealth should be spread around.
As for Hathaway.... Still have a bad taste in my mouth from her Oscar hosting. I think others will feel the same come ballot time an it will be Adam's "time"....
Nathaniel, have you considered Naomi Watts for "The Impossible." Read a little bit about the movie (which is already getting a lot of buzz in Spain) and consider adding her to the charts.
Does anyone know if Hathaway nails the accent down? She's had trouble before and been called out on it in reviews. That terrible "One Day" performance comes to mind. If she gets a hold on it then she might be the frontrunner.
Kramer vs Kramer?
Besides last year you wrote she would not get nominated for Iron Lady because it was a political role....
And then she won her third Oscar despite all the Oscar pundits....
Again,I think the rules are always slightly different for Streep
If I had to choose between the two without having seen the performances, I'd go with Hathaway. Why? Only because I think her post-Oscar choices would be more interesting. Adams strikes as one of those winners who would slow down to have kids as if they had achieved everything in their lives in their 30s. Also, 4 nominations for Adams (if it happens) won't give an idea of a better career than it actually is?. Speaking of which, is there a logical explanation for Helen Hunt's lack of career?
I don't know why but I feel like if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Adams first. Maybe it's because I think they'll feel like three nominations is enough preparation for the statue. In a weird way, the fact that she's 38 might actually help her, since there's bound to be a general feeling that Annie has more time to win in the future. Maybe I'm just trying to justify the fact that I generally like Adams more (though I love Annie, this is a tough competition).
Isn't there often a surprise candidate who is kind of "new" but now looks like she can go the distance? I'm thinking of Zoe Kazan in Ruby Sparks.
For Amy and Anne, I'm guessing Lead for Amy for Curve, and Supporting for Anne for Les Miz. The Supporting lineup looks great! I'm sure we'll see more and unexpected performances in this category. If Eye of The Storm ever gets a US release, we might consider Judy Davis, a consistently terrific performer.
For Lead, Naomi Watts and Rachel Weisz should at least be on the list. And I'd thought Zero Dark Thirty was an ensemble with no leads, but if Chastain is a lead, bump her up near the top, and I'd bet the men in it will also impress in the Supporting Actor category (Mark Strong has impressed me lately ie Tinker).
Amy Adams is 38? Shit.
I love both actresses, but I would probably give the range prize to Hathaway and guess that she's the front-runner (There's always a 'happy working song' attitude in the performances of Amy Adams... not that that's a bad thing.)
2 questions though: are Davis and Hunt not in lead roles? I'm only guessing by the trailers though.
I'll say supporting goes:
Adams/Gyllenhaal (Won't) Back Down/Hathaway/Maggie Smith (Marigold)/the other Olivia in The King's Speech 2
I'll say lead:
Cotillard/Davis/Hunt/Knightley/Linney
(I'm on Team Meryl, but I assume they'll give her the year off.)
I seriously doubt the Oscar is Anne's too lose. Come on. Really? I think she has great, yet to be fully realized talent and probably should've gone home with Winslet's golden boy. That being said, Fantine's in Les Mis for all of fifteen minutes, right at the beginning. Hathaway's not overdue in the slightest, unlike Amy, who probably should've gone home with Rachel Weisz's (or even Melissa Leo's) golden boy. I'm sure she'll get nominated and I'm sure she'll be great but the last (only?) actress to win a Supporting Oscar for a musical (CZ-J) was a constant (and often electrifying) presence in her vehicle, whereas Anne will certainly be competing for attention with Amanda Seyfried, Samantha Barks, and a surely scene-stealing Helena Bonham Carter. Also, isn't it just more realistic for Anne to win hers for a sterling lead performance? Amy is a bonfire supporting actress, probably the most acclaimed one working right now, who's going to get hers eventually. Surely the fourth try's the charm?
Eoin -- this is a frightening notion. SPREAD THE WEALTH, AMPAS. SPREAD THE WEALTH.
4rtful -- let go of Keira in what way? she's not one of my favorite actresses or anything. I just think she has a decent shot at the nomination this year, and possibly the win if the year stays this diffuse (which it won't of course. it's only august)
eurocheese -- everything I've heard from insiders suggests a supporting campaign for Hunt.
Leon -- wait, what? How are you getting Chastain as the lead character? I have seen the teaser and the actors are barely mentioned and not at all the focus of the trailer.
Edwin -- but Cruz had just won. A very different scenario.
Rene -- why would Anne have an accent? It's about French people but it's not in French.
Jamie -- i only wrote that political performances are not an automatic get (which I stand by) and that I didn't think she was locked up for a nomination. Of course she did go on to win so I was wrong to doubt. BUT... no matter how you spin it, after Streep achieved stardom Oscar's least favorite type of Meryl role is the "ordinary woman". There's virtually no example of her being nominated for playing an ordinary (non-real life based) woman with mundane problems. They like her in heightened things whether that means accents, biographical roles, true stories of importance, or period work. Literally the only "ordinary" role that won her a nomination post Kramer vs Kramer over 30 years ago was One True Thing. All the others failed to win oscar traction.
Mathew -- i think those 15 minutes (i seriously doubt it's that little) will be enough. Fantine is a HUGE role (regardless of screen time) that haunts the whole musical
I see your point, Nathaniel, but is that really enough to win?
Nathaniel, of course I know it's not in French, but they're doing that stupid thing where French characters inexplicably speak English with various British accents, no? She's botched an English accent before is all I'm saying.
Adaptation?
Nathaniel- But I do agree with what you are saying. I am just playing devil's advocate...
Edwin, everyone I know has been raving about Anne Hathaway's performance in the trailer for Les Miserables, and Universal Studies is selling her performance in the trailer- because they know they have something great. and special Notice, they weren't selling Hugh Jackman, Samantha Barks, Russell Crowe in the first teaser trailer. I just saw some of the Les Miserables' stills from the current Fall Issue of Entertainment Weekly, and one still has Hathaway at her most heartbreaking ( it is hard for me to look at the photo) . Remember, Anne's strength is that , she is a live performer and theatre actress. From what I read, Tom Hooper has created a live performing and very strong theatre environment- no lip-synching.
P.S. Hathaway's great reviews from The Dark Knight Rises, will help her chances even more. Because she is revealing how versatile she is. Also, if the movie turns out bad, Anne could still get an Oscar nomination. Remember, Penelope Cruz from the movie, Nine.
I agree it is too early to say who is the front runner of any Oscar category.
But, Rene, I respected Anne Hathaway's British accent in Becoming Jane, and she did a brilliant impression of Mary Poppins , when she hosted Saturday Night Live ( she pulled-off Julie Andrews' posh British accent perfectly, her mannerisms, and her singing voice ). That SNL skit is still one of my all time favorite SNL skits.
@Matthew Rita Moreno won for West Side Story
@Matthew Jennifer hudson is the most recent supporting actress to win for a musical, it has happened in three ocasions
@Eoin -- I can't believe I forgot those two, especially Moreno, since she's unarguably one of the best winners ever.
Nathaniel- Have you seen Hope Springs yet?
Kelly, I'm sure you're right. But I've also never seen articles like this from HuffPo analyzing an accent. Or Time naming hers one of the worst. It does seem like the accent cited was tricky though.
I guess I'm a little sensitive to it because of <tangent> Chloe Sevigny and her wonky accent on her new show "Hit and Miss." I love her and the character, but the accent is pretty unfortunate.
Speaking of which, is there a logical explanation for Helen Hunt's lack of career?
Aside from bi*chdom? Her wheelhouse is television.
But But But... maybe I'm blind but Anne will be SINGING this role. I hardly think the accent will exist and/or matter.
Of course, Nathaniel, I'd forgotten it's a completely sung-through musical. Point mooted. (I've only heard a recording of it. Sorry.) Unless they go Hollywood on its ass and deem it too "sing-songy and junk" for middle America and edit some songs out to shove some dialogue in.
I also think Amy Adams was fabulous in Doubt. My vote for that year, with Davis and Tomei close behind.
Ps, loved this post. And the fact that you have Meryl at infinity nods :P
The best scenario is: Anne Hathaway is nominated at Best Actress and takes the golden boy home ala Patricia Neal in Hud. Then Amy Adams can have one too after all this time.
What I really want to see happening though is for Keira and Cotillard to get nominated again. That's all.
Then everyone can battle it out next year with Streep in Osage County.
Is Michelle Williams/Take This Waltz elligable?
Nathaniel, I guess I was overracting, but Chastain have two scenes, even her voice is heard at the description of Bin Laden and the camera show her face in more seconds. Also, with the Hollywood Report recall a lot of her in the film and the billing between Chastain and Edgerton is notorious. Maybe it's per se an ensemble, but for an Oscar campaign I could see Chastain and Edgerton as the leads.
For Hathaway, I believe her biggest competition is inside the film. If Samantha Barks got excellent reviews as her, she could have a big trouble, but in this case I would say Hathaway have the easy way to Oscars. Maybe Adams have three nominations, but with the possible exception of 2005 -And we can argue with contenders like Williams and Keener-, she was more a fiiller nom -fourth/fifth place-. Opposite way with Hathaway's 2008 when she was third and in some moments, second of the race. Before the trailer came out, Maybe Adams is today's Thelma Ritter. Fun data: Actually, Supporting Actress is the acting category with most winners as first time nominees. In the last 20 years (1992 - 2011):
First time nominees: Marisa Tomei, Anna Paquin, Mira Sorvino, Juliette Binoche, Kim Basinger, Angelina Jolie, Marcia Gay Harden, Jennifer Connelly, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Rachel Weisz, Jennifer Hudson, Tilda Swinton, Mo'Nique, Octavia Spencer
Previous Nominees: Diane Wiest, Judi Dench, Renee Zellweger, Cate Blanchett, Penélope Cruz, Melissa Leo
From the previous nominees, only Wiest was nominated more than once. If the tread is true, the possibilities of Adams are actually slimmer. She needs career's best reviews for competing, because the twitters didn't mention her at all.
Nathaniel- so based on your above criteria... Will Meryl get a nomination for August: Osage County?
Why did you put Hunt in supporting? There's NO way she's going supporting when leading is such a weak race and she has a legitimate shot at winning her second there. She's actually my #1 as of now. The comeback factor might help her. I don't trust Hyde Park on Hudson, Cotillard won't win a 2nd, Keira will not happen, neither will Wallis. I think it's Helen Hunt as of now. :) Everyone who's seen the movie says she's leading.
I don't care much if Anne wins this year but I sure want to see her getting nominated (If I actually like the performance a lot) and continue to enrich her abilities with juicy roles.
Am I the only one who is indifferent to Meryl