Chart Updates: Actors and Foreign Films
Friday, September 14, 2012 at 6:00PM 
The Oscar chart updates were temporarily stalled by my thwarted Toronto plans so just fixin' things up now. Enjoy the updates while I jaunt off to Fire Island for a 24 hour getaway. I've just seen The Impossible -- more on that soon -- so I'm accidentally living a rather perverse combo: tsunami picture then beach getaway.
As always predictions are for entertainment purposes only. They should never be interpreted as endorsements though occassionally deserve has something to do with it.
BEST ACTOR
The big story here is a common one. There are enough buzzing performances to fill out an entire Golden Globe nominee pool, 10-wide, which means there are twice as many contenders as Oscar voters will be able to choose. Am I crazy to wonder if even Daniel Day-Lewis is safe for Lincoln? The trailer does not impress.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin makes huge gains as he's singled out in many Argo reactions. Ewan McGregor's wounded father in The Impossible also rises though I have to wonder if this isn't wishful thinking. He's one of the world's best and most endearing screen actors but he never quite wins Oscar hearts. Still, nomination-less or not, come what may... we will love him, until our dying day.
Finally, add Kiki's new man Garrett Hedlund to your For Your Consideration fields for On The Road. He's the focal point of the film's considerable libido which might work against him (this is one of the most sexually-charged performances since, say, Jude Law in The Talented Mr Ripley) but they're campaigning him as supporting which will definitely work for him given his enormous amount of screen time.
Garrett Hedlund is "On the Road" with cinematography by Eric Gautier
VISUALS & AURALS
Gains for TIFF buzzing Cloud Atlas, On the Road and The Impossible.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM SUBMISSIONS
You can add Romania's Beyond the Hills which is from Cristian Mungui, the director of the magnificent 4 Weeks 3 Months and 2 Days (better luck this time!) and Portugal's Blood of My Blood to the list of submitted contenders. May the best five films win nominations.
Which buzzing fall film are you desperate to get your eyeballs on? I chose the beach over The Master (perverse I know given the rarity of P.T. Anderson pictures) but I'll get to that one Sunday...
Reader Comments (23)
Based on the names of the last three winners of best supporting actor (Christopher Plummer, Christian Bale, and Christoph Waltz), I'd have to say that Christopher Walken has the edge in that race.
Cash that happened before in Supporting Actress: Maggie Smith '78, Meryl Streep '79, Mary Steenburgen '80, Maureen Stapleton '81.
Wow, Cash! that is very interesting. LOL
RE: Supporting Actor Chart
Alan Arkin has 3 overall nominations,
not two.
God, Hedlund is a beautiful man. I knew this already from Tron: Legacy, but now there's the added security of him naked onscreen. Sweet.
Yes, that Lincoln trailer sucked...I mean, what the hell was that?!
I always like your predictions list. You say they're for entertainment purposes but also occasionally deserving, but I like the way they gravitate to the deserving, to artists who are talented, versatile, original, and persevering. I'd be perfectly content to have your charts be the final nominations. The supporting actress category at present is just so satisfying.
Speaking of actresses, do you think Jessica Chastain may be a lead in Zero Dark Thirty?
Of the fall festival releases, I'd most like to see The Impossible, then The Master, and Amour.
Supporting Actor updates should include:
Robert Deniro in Silver Linings and William H Macy in The Sessions. Both big crowd pleasers that played well in Toronto. Also Sam Rockwell is the standout in Psychopaths. Then Walken.
Walken has the bigger role and the Academy has yet to warm to Rockwell.
I never understand why Ewan McGregor keeps getting looked over for Oscar noms. He's been doing solid acting jobs for YEARS now, since Trainspotting in my book, he's not in a lot of big bombs, doesn't get in any scandals or legal trouble that might want the Academy to avoid shining light on 'em. He's great! What the hell?
This seemed like such a promising year for movies at one point - what happened?
I still am really looking forward to The Master, Anna Karenina and Django Unchained, but so many of these potential Oscar pics leave me cold. And the thought of Ben Affleck directing a Best Picture winner (or God forbid, winning a Best Director Oscar) just seems so, so wrong to me.
The Master was amazing. PTA became my favorite director today. He is such a fucking genius. I don't even think he knows it. GOD BLESS HIM!!
I'm thinking Richard Gere may have a shot if "Arbitrage" hits like, say, "Margin Call" did on the circuit.
Also, LOVE this:
"John Williams
1,000,000 Noms | 5 wins
LINCOLN"
I think the male categories predix are way better than the female ones -Sorry, but Linney and Williams are out for Hyde Park on Hudson especially after those reviews-, But I have my points:
-Also speaking of Hyde Park on Hudson, maybe we need to pull out Murray on the second tier. First, Rotten Tomatoes (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/hyde_park_on_hudson/). In the last 25 years, only two actors were nominated for rotten films in the leading category - Robert Downey Jr. and Sean Penn, and sorry, but Murray isn't respected enough as Penn or having a "revelation performance" in a weak year as Downey Jr. And next, Murray won't campaign (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5iHCG69NAS0vr2RMCzBYISU7tY17Q?docId=N0135861347465810980A&index=0)
-For Garrett Hendlund, even if he's "best of show" I seriously doubt he'll be in contention for the Oscars. IFC is the distribuitor -The worst studio for Oscar campaign-, Stewart's bad mouthing is still strong and his sex scene with Steve Buscemi will turn off many old male voters -Even thinking this image isn't exactly exciting even seeing Hendlund naked-. Also the reviews of the film isn't making wonders
-For Ewan McGregor, I'm cautious, but I think this is his best shot for a nomination. This could be another Mark Ruffalo effect -Underrated actor who finds a supporting role in a big film with a Best Actress prospect-. Also, since the beginning of the supporting categories, there's at least a newbie in both categories and with prior nominees/winners as a big contenders, McGregor would have advantage because he hasn't internal competition -Cranston, Goodman, Gordon-Levitt- or having an Academy type of film -McConaughey-. At least I hope my theory is right and McGregor got his deserving Oscar nomination
Actually I think is looking better for Jackman. Of course he needs the sucess of the film, but his advantages could pull off his weakness:
-A-List star in a deglam role
-Even for a musical, his role is really dramatic with big scenes
-Likable person
-Even with a regular filmography -But with 90% of his titles he's the lead star-, he's respected enough for his work in stage and TV
-WIth Phoenix's manners, Hawkes' subtle work, Day-Lewis recent second Oscar, Cooper overshadowed by Lawrence and Pitt with no clear response, he could be the "dark horse" for the victory.
My top 10:
ACTOR:
1. Joaquin Phoenix - THE MASTER
2. Hugh Jackman - LES MISERABLES
3. John Hawkes - THE SESSIONS
4. Daniel Day-Lewis - LINCOLN
5. Denzel Washington - FLIGHT
---------------------------------------------
6. Bradley Cooper - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
7. Matt Damon - PROMISED LAND
8. Mads Mikkelsen - THE HUNT
9. Tommy Lee Jones - HOPE SPRINGS
10.Jean-Louis Trintignant - AMOUR
ACTRESS:
1. Jennifer Lawrence - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
2. Quvenzhané Wallis - BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
3. Marion Cotillard - RUST AND BONE
4. Naomi Watts - THE IMPOSSIBLE
5. Maggie Smith - QUARTET
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6. Meryl Streep - HOPE SPRINGS
7. Keira Knightley - ANNA KARERINA
8. Emmanuelle RIva - AMOUR
9. Amy Adams - TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE
10.Judi Dench - THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Philip Seymour Hoffman - THE MASTER
2. Leonardo DiCaprio - DJANGO UNCHAINED
3. Alan Arkin - ARGO
4. Ewan McGregor - THE IMPOSSIBLE
5. Russell Crowe - LES MISERABLES
---------------------------------------------
6. Robert De Niro - SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
7. Hal Holbrook - PROMISED LAND
8. Matthew McConaughey - MAGIC MIKE
9. Christopher Walken - SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS
10.Joseph Gordon-Levitt - LINCOLN
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Anne Hathaway - LES MISERABLES
2. Jessica Chastain - ZERO DARK THIRTY
3. Helen Hunt - THE SESSIONS
4. Samantha Barks - LES MISERABLES
5. Amy Adams - THE MASTER
--------------------------------------
6. Maggie Smith - THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
7. Frances McDormand - PROMISED LAND
8. Sally Field - LINCOLN
9. Kelly Reilly - FLIGHT
10.Pauline Collins - QUARTET
You may add the 3 movies preselected for Spain in Foreing Language. We will know the final decision on September 27th. Meanwhile the finalists are:
*Blancanieves (Pablo Berger): Silent movie, B&W, amazing Maribel Verdu leading the cast.
*El artista y la modelo - The artist and the model (Fernando Trueba): B&W. Claudia cardinale and Jean Rochefort in the cast. Trueba won Oscar in 1994 with Belle Epoque.
*Grupo 7 - Group 7 (Alberto Rodríguez): Thriller. This is the weakest option.
I think the chosen one will be Blancanieves. It will be nice to see that beautiful film in the Oscars Race. And why not Maribel nominated as supporting actress? :)
How awesome if Ewan won Best Supporting Actor one year after his Beginners co-star Christopher Plummer? They were great together; especially nice if they went against tradition and had Plummer present the Award
To not even include De Niro as a WIld Card in your Supporting Actor predcitions is a pretty bad mistake I guess. Maybe you will awake when he gets the first award nominations. Seriously, is it just that you hate De Niro or pure ignorance?
LOL. I love people sometimes. So funny.
LOL Olli... Which is Nathaniel! Ignorance? Or a heart full of hate? You can't AFFORD to be making these kinds of MISTAKES!!! ;)
If Ignorance or a Heart Full of Hate mean "in a rush to get to the train for a day at the beach than GUILTY I am ;)
Nathan last night Kathy Bates and Martha Plimpton became Emmy winners.
Today I saw De Niro on your list.
No complaints anymore from my site ;)
Now go Bob and get that damn third statue ;)