Wednesday
Jun262013
If they had to announce the Oscar nominees right now...
Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:00AM ...which 2013 releases (thus far) do you think would be the Best Picture nominees? And which sure thing nominees right now won't have a prayer come January? True, it's only June 26th and we've 204 days left until nominations are announced for realz but play along would'ya? Because speculative fantasy is fun.
Would blockbusters or indies rule the noms if the year ended today?
P.S. We'll review the year's first half next week. Woohoo.
Reader Comments (30)
Well we'd definitely have our first 'Big 5' winner since 1991 with "Before Midnight". I'm speculating that Ethan Hawke would get swept along with momentum and beat Matthew McConaughey for "Mud", although that would be a close call.
42
Before Midnight
Frances Ha
The Great Gatsby
Iron Man 3
Mud
Emma Watson - Best Supporting Actress: THE BLING RING
<3
The Great Gatsby
Side Effects
Frances Ha
Before Midnight
Much Ado About Nothing
The Academy should really give the studios a stroke one year as an experiment and just announce the nominations in August to give them a lesson for releasing everything so late in the year.
I think these films would get some love, worthy or not:
Mud
Before Midnight
42
Frances Ha
Much Ado About Nothing
Stories We Tell
But all of these will probably be forgotten come January, except Stories We Tell, which will be relegated to the documentary category, despite being clearly one of the best films of the year.
Before Midnight
Frances Ha
Mud
The Place Beyond The Pines
Stories We Tell
Can't say I have liked much so far this year.
I would but Ben Kingsley's turn in Iron Man 3 as Best Supporting Actor.
James Franco - Best Supporting Actor (Spring Breakers)
and for the Best Picture:
Before Midnight
Mud
The Bling Ring
Before Midnight
Mud
Much ado about nothing
The place Beyond the pines
and maaaaaybe The great Gatsby
Mud and place beyond the pines
SURE THINGS:
"Mud"
"42"
PRESENT POSSIBILITIES:
"Before Midnight"
"The Great Gatsby"
"Frances Ha"
LONG SHOTS:
"The Place Beyond the Pines"
"The Bling Ring"
"Side Effects"
As for how they'll stack up in January, I'd say none of them have a chance. "Before Midnight" will be in the Adapted Screenplay and Actress conversation, as will "Frances Ha" in Original Screenplay and Actress. I stack "Mud" and "42" so high because the former is beloved and "42" is irritatingly liked by public masses.
I guess Amy Adams in Man of Steal because they have to nominate her for something...
Amir- Hear, hear! I'm too crazy busy in December to watch movies and I have ALL KINDS of time in the summer, and not just for popcorn flix. Didn't Streep tell the studios about this phenomenon? And, WTF, Weinstein? Isn't it called "AUGUST: Osage County"? I would have loved a Labor Day weekend release on this one.
Anyway, the following get my votes:
Mud (tho' I liked Take Shelter better)
What Maisie Knew (not a best pic in the real world)
Frances Ha (delightful, but also not a cinematic marvel)
Stories We Tell (in the doc category)
and haven't seen but excited about:
All is Lost
Nebraska
Blue Jasmine
Gravity
Monuments Men
Fruitvale Station
Ender's Game
Don Jon
Deserving candidates for consideration
BEST PICTURE
Before Midnight
Frances Ha
BEST ACTOR
Ethan Hawke, "Before Midnight"
Pierce Brosnan, "Love Is All You Need"
BEST ACTRESS
Julie Delpy, "Before Midnight"
Greta Gerwig, "Frances Ha"
Trine Dyrholm, "Love Is All You Need
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, "Star Trek Into Darkness"
Panos Koronis, "Before Midnight"
Michael Zegen, "Frances Ha" (Just because he's so....COOL!!!)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Xenia Kalogeropoulou, "Before Midnight" (She delivers that monologue at the dinner table with such calculated finesse and pathos)
Katie Chang, "Bling Ring" (Some people might be put off by the affect of her performance, but I found it quite informed the movie Coppola tried to/did shoot)
Andrea Riseborough, "Oblivion" (Definitely not a competition for end of the year, but right now her small feat was impressive enough to includer her)
Other Performances I either liked or admired but didn't necessarily love them:
Matthew Goode, 'Stoker"
Zac Efron, "At Any Price"
Nicole Kidman, "Stoker"
Mickey Sumner, "Frances Ha"
Emma Watson, "The Bling Ring"
Bradley Cooper, "The Place Beyond the Pines" (Is my strong admiration for Gosling undermining Cooper's work in this film????)
Dane Dehan, "The Place Beyond the Pines"
Tim Roth, "Broken"
Note: Haven't seen "Mud," and I disliked "Spring Breakers"
BVR--Nice call on Trine Dyrholm. Thought I was the only one who liked that movie and her performance. Brosnan should have been nominated earlier for the The Matador and/or Seraphim Falls though because he was brilliant in both.
For Picture, I'd say 7:
Before Midnight
Upstream Color
Frances Ha
Mud
Side Effects
42
Iron Man 3, The Place Beyond the Pines or The Iceman
Actor:
Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Chadwick Boseman, 42
Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines
Michael Shannon, The Iceman
Nicholas Hoult, Warm Bodies
Actress:
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Rooney Mara, Side Effects
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Julianne Moore, The English Teacher
Gwyneth Paltrow, Iron Man 3
Supporting Actor:
Matthew McConaughey, Mud
Ben Kingsley, Iron Man 3
Nathan Fillion, Much Ado About Nothing
Dwayne Johnson, Pain & Gain
James Franco, Spring Breakers
Supporting Actress:
Nicole Kidman, Stoker
Reese Witherspoon, Mud
Winona Ryder, The Iceman
Eva Mendes, The Place Beyond the Pines
Amy Adams, Man of Steel
End of July?:
Picture loses "the provisionals" and 42 for Pacific Rim and Blue Jasmine, Actor stays the same, Actress loses Paltrow for Blanchett, Supporting Actress loses Amy Adams for Sally Hawkins and Supporting Actor loses James Franco and Dwayne Johnson for Idris Elba and Alec Baldwin.
End of August:
Picture jumps to eight, picking up The World's End, Actor loses Michael Shannon for Simon Pegg, Actress loses Julianne Moore for Shailene Woodley, Supporting Actor loses Nathan Fillion for Kyle Chandler and Supporting Actress stays the same as it was at the end of July.
BEST PICTURE:
Before Midnight
Spring Breakers
Mud
The Place Beyond the Pines
42
Upstream Color
Frances Ha
BEST ACTOR:
Matthew McConaughey, Mud
James McAvoy, Trance
Brady Corbet, Simon Killer
Penn Badgley, Greetings from Tim Buckley
BEST ACTRESS:
Andrea Riseborough, Shadow Dancer
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
BEST SUPPORTING:
Harrison Ford, 42
Jenni Rivera, Filly Brown
Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines
Jason Bateman, Disconnect
Rosario Dawson, Trance
James Franco, Spring Breakers
Julianne Moore, What Maisie Knew
Polley's Stroies We Tell and Before Midnight get my vote. And of course Elizabeth Debicki in The Great Gatsby for supporting actress – a star was born.
Still, though, I'd think that, realistically, Before Midnight, The World's End and, maybe, Pacific Rim are the only ones that have end of year shots, due to the (massive) career build on the director's of all three movies.
Edgar Wright: Did two phenomenal socially relevant genre parodies/sub-culture critiques in Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz, before (in my view), slightly stumbling with Scott Pilgrim and now returning to the loosely connected thematic trilogy that made his name. If he nails it, I'll view it as the most qualitatively consistent trilogy ever. (Blue: B+. I have my reasons, mostly due to the colour symbolism's obviousness.)
Richard Linklater: Has a massive career spanning two decades, and has never been an alienating sort of artist. Best films of his that I've seen are Dazed and Confused, Before Sunrise and Before Sunset, so having this penetrate even deeper into the season would make sense.
Guillermo Del Toro: Though he slightly stumbled with Hellboy 2 (sorry to say, but I found it kind of boring the first time I tried to watch it), he's still waiting on an actual Best Picture nominee (and if the current rules were around in 2006, he'd have had one).
Still, though, I'd think that, realistically, Before Midnight, The World's End and, maybe, Pacific Rim are the only ones that have end of year shots, due to the (massive) career build on the director's of all three movies.
Edgar Wright: Did two phenomenal socially relevant genre parodies/sub-culture critiques in Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz, before (in my view), slightly stumbling with Scott Pilgrim and now returning to the loosely connected thematic trilogy that made his name. If he nails it, I'll view it as the most qualitatively consistent trilogy ever. (Blue: B+. I have my reasons, mostly due to the colour symbolism's obviousness.)
Richard Linklater: Has a massive career spanning two decades, and has never been an alienating sort of artist. Best films of his that I've seen are Dazed and Confused, Before Sunrise and Before Sunset, so having this penetrate even deeper into the season would make sense.
Guillermo Del Toro: Though he slightly stumbled with Hellboy 2 (sorry to say, but I found it kind of boring the first time I tried to watch it), he's still waiting on an actual Best Picture nominee (and if the current rules were around in 2006, he'd have had one).
Please delete my slip. And this comment.
Definitely Lana del Rey, "Young and Beautiful,' for Best Original Song. I didn't even like the movie, but the song is magic.
Greta Gerwig and Julie Delpy would be duking it out for the Best Actress prize and, come on, wouldn't that be a lot more satisfying (and potentially more deserving) than anything we're likely to see come March of 2014?
I just started working on this topic, too. I have to pull one film off my list, Resolution, because it hasn't had it's one week and done requisite indie release yet. Otherwise, Stoker and Frances Ha are competing head to head in the major categories for me. Warm Bodies, The Iceman (acting), Mud, The East, and Trance mostly fill out the rest. I'm seeing Much Ado...tonight and The Bling Ring (hopefully) over the weekend for a better read of the field.
White House Down for the SWEEP.
Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, VFX, Hair & Makeup, uh... live action short? Whatever.
BOW TO THE HOUSE.
That is all. :)
I might be in the minority with this but what about Chris Evans and his small but attention getting role in The Iceman?It was a change of pace for him. I think both Emma Watson(Bling Ring)and Nicole Kidman(Stoker) should be in the running for Supporting Actress.
The current cinema, much like last year at this time, is a virtual wasteland. Please let's hope and pray that we start getting some Oscar-worthy stuff soon.
Best Picture
Spring Breakers
The Bling Ring
Frances Ha
Best Director
Harmony Korine, Spring Breakers
Sofia Coppola, The Bling Ring
Noah Baumbach, Frances Ha
Best Actress
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Katie Chang, The Bling Ring
Gemma Arterton, Byzantium
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey, Mud
Nick Robinson, The Kings of Summer
Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Best Supporting Actress
Emma Watson, The Bling Ring
Mickey Sumner, Frances Ha
Vanessa Hudgens, Spring Breakers
Best Supporting Actor
James Franco, Spring Breakers
Michael Zegen, Frances Ha
Nick Offerman, The Kings of Summer
Best Original Screenplay
The Kings of Summer
Frances Ha
Mud
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Bling Ring
Before Midnight
What Maisie Knew
Eli, Chris Evans is on my shortlist for The Iceman, same as Wynona Ryder and Michael Shannon. Evans was the real standout.
Also, Much Ado About Nothing is now a frontrunner on a few of my lists. So much fun.
Picture:
Before Midnight
The Bling Ring
Frances Ha
Mud
Side Effects
Director:
Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Sofia Coppola, The Bling Ring
Jeff Nichols, Mud
Steven Soderbergh, Side Effects
Terrence Malick, To The Wonder
Actor:
Chadwick Boseman, 42
Matthew McConaughey, Mud
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Jude Law, Side Effects
Actress:
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Rooney Mara, Side Effects
Mia Wasikowska, Stoker
Olga Kurylenko, To The Wonder
Supporting Actor:
Harrison Ford, 42
Alexander Skarsgård, The East
Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond The Pines
James Franco, Spring Breakers
Matthew Goode, Stoker
Supporting Actress:
Emma Watson, The Bling Ring
Patricia Clarckson, The East
Eva Mendes, The Place Beyond The Pines
Nicole Kidman, Stoker
Julianne Moore, What Maisie Knew