The Superheroes Are Coming. After the Oscars.
Thursday, December 3, 2015 at 10:00AM 
Travel with me into spring 2016 - it will help you to appreciate the now of prestige season more! 2016 is arguably the year in which we see just how insatiable the public's appetite for spandex crime fighting is. Especially now that they can watch the same on TV regularly for free with Agents of SHIELD, Arrow, Supergirl, Flash, Agent Carter, Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, Daredevil, Legends of Tomorrow, Gotham all on the air now or by the end of 2016. I'm not an expert on the topic but this feels like the most based-on-comics material that movies/tv have ever seen in one calendar year (There was almost even one more but Channing Tatum's Gambit movie is now looking at 2017 since it hasn't started filming.)
2016's Superhero Schedule
Feb 4th Deadpool (Fox)
Mar 25th Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (WB)
May 6th Captain America: Civil War (Marvel/Disney)
May 26th X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)
Jun 3rd Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 (Paramount)
Aug 6th Suicide Squad (WB)
Nov 6th Doctor Strange (Marvel/Disney)
So far awards bodies like Emmy and Oscar haven't much cared about the genre at all. Apart from two things... Oscar's visual effects category cares obviously. Though not as much as you'd think -- last year's nominated shortlist which contained three superhero films (Captain America: Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy, and X-Men Days of Future Past) is an anomaly. That's the most that have ever been in the category at once and they've passed over many superhero films in the past. Oscar also cares about the Batman franchise (15 nominations / 3 wins). Will that change or will oversaturation kill the chance / momentum for comic book films to be taken seriously?
Why are we talking about this right now? Because, though your host can take or leave a few of these films and though he outright hates the internet's oppressive obsession with every pre-release morsel and speculative circle jerk, he goes weak at knees for Captain America movies. That's just how it is.
We don't choose who we love! Steve Rogers can't help that he loves Bucky Barnes enough to go to war for him, you know?
So the crux of "Civil War" is that Cap will fight the entire government and half his friends because he loves Sebastian Stan? Saaaaaame.
— Joe Reid (@joereid) November 25, 2015
Only 155 days to go until Captain America returns!
The rest of the slate is less exciting -- the idea of a Doctor Strange movie is quite appealing but Benedict Cumberbatch? Zzz.
Here's the brand new trailer (#2 i think? Or is it #3 already) for Batman v Superman v Joy
I don't have the strength to Yes No Maybe So it. But perhaps it's spiteful to keep referring to it as Batman v Superman v Joy because this trailer does have some minor joking. Wonder Woman looks entirely computer generated! Is Gal Gadot a figment of our imaginations?
P.S. Pajiba wrote about this international 'dat ass tho' Deadpool poster and you should read it.
Reader Comments (27)
I'm only really interested in three of these.
1. Deadpool (Because it looks so fun and understands that this kind of hero is best at an R rating.)
2. Captain America: Civil War (Because Captain America.)
3. Doctor Strange (Yes, Benedict Cumberbatch is overexposed. But when the director is going on in mentioning Alejandro Jodorowsky as an influence for this film? Yeah, good or bad, I'm interested in how that turns out.)
The others?
Batman v Superman v Joy and Surprise (Seriously? I mean, people were guessing Doomsday was in it, but you could have played it a little closer to the vest.)
X-Men: Apocalypse. (Bryan Singer is never going to release anything as bad as Superman Returns ever again, sure, but he's still a massive disappointment who's just going back to the well at this point.)
Bay!Turtles 2. (At their best, I like the Turtles franchise. (Especially the original comics, the 03 animated show and the 2012 animated show.) But does anyone want another one of these?)
Suicide Squad (Why even green-light this if you're going to do it PG-13!? Newsflash: You're chasing The Expendables' audience with this far more than you're chasing the superhero audience! And what happened to The Expendables 3? Yep. Flopped BECAUSE it was PG-13.)
Jesse Eisenberg is completely miscast going by that trailer. Lex Luthor is supposed to be a cold, shrewd, calculating genius with a massive ego. Eisenberg's playing him like a manic teenage psychopath, more like a version of the Joker. He's not very intimidating as the movies villain and his voice reminds me of Curly from The Three Stooges. I half expected him to finish the sentence with "Nyuck, Nyuck" in that scene with Clark Kent and Bruce Wayne.
Eddie: That also struck me. I admire him for not wanting to repeat himself (Eisenberg doing a stone cold Lex Luthor would just be a repeat of The Social Network), but why not just decline the role then?
There is absolutely no cake to accompany that ice cream. Deadpool gets no peach emoji from me.
As with most of these superhero movies that aren't X-Men, I'm a "no" until I hear opinions from people I trust. The first Captain America bored me so much that I have no interest in returning for seconds or thirds. The dull, listless recent Superman do-overs sucked the joy out of the franchise. All of Nolan's Batman offerings are grossly overappreciated. I guess our love for see NYC destroy over and over again keeps us going back.
More like Bad Ass, Smart Ass, No Ass
Yes:
Deadpool because R
Suicide Squad because of the crazy
Doctor Strange because of Tilda and Chiwetel
No:
Captain America because it's Avengers 3 in sheep's clothing
Batman v. Superman because of Man of Steel - I'm gunshy
X-Men because I'm tired
TMNT 2 doesn't exist in my cinematic universe
Suicide Squad because of Viola.
Did you know that The Lovely Laura Linney's apparently in TMNT2?!
Captain America <3
I was a fan since the first one.
Predictions:
Feb 4th Deadpool: Perceived as a failure but will squeak by with 70 mil US, 150 mil Worldwide
Mar 25th Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice: considered failure but will still make 150 mil US, 400 mil WW
May 6th Captain America: Civil War: top 10 for the year, 250 mil US, 450 mil WW
May 26th X-Men: Apocalypse: somehow will make more opening weekend than Cappy's opening, but not so overall, 200 mil US, 300 WW
Jun 3rd Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2: bomb, 55 mil US, 75 WW
Aug 6th Suicide Squad: gritty hit 130 mil US, 220 WW
Nov 6th Doctor Strange: bomb, 65 mil US, 80 WW
Superman vs Batman vs Joy vs Good Taste is an unintentional comedy at this point. That trailer just looks ridiculous, it'is camp without the fun.
And wow, I did know there were many superheroes movies out next year but when you put then side by side like that, It really feels like too many. I'm thinking this is the year the trend will explode.
"3. Doctor Strange (Yes, Benedict Cumberbatch is overexposed. But when the director is going on in mentioning Alejandro Jodorowsky as an influence for this film? Yeah, good or bad, I'm interested in how that turns out.)"
I was interested when the director of Fantastic Four name-dropped Cronenberg too but we all saw how the studio sanded that down to sawdust. I HAVE MY DOUBTS! ;) But I still want to see it because of that amazing cast.
James: Counter predictions?
Deadpool. Budget: $70-80 million. Minimum gross: $100-110 million US, $200-220 million foreign markets for a world wide total of $300-330 million. 3.8-4x budget = Success.
Batman v. Superman Dawn of Justice: Budget: $300 million. Minimum gross: $145 million US, $186 million foreign markets for a worldwide total of $331 million. 1.1x budget = flop.
Captain America: Civil War. Budget: $225 million, as a mid-way point between Winter Soldier and Age of Ultron. Minimum gross: $350 million US, $600 million foreign markets for a worldwide total of $950 million. 4.22x budget = success.
X-Men: Apocalypse. Budget: $200 million. Minimum gross: $180 million US, $450 million foreign markets for a $630 million worldwide total. 3.15x budget = success.
TMNT 2. Budget: $150-180 million. Minimum gross: $150 million US, $250 million foreign markets for a worldwide total of $400 million. 2.22x budget = barely breaks even.
Suicide Squad. Budget: $150-180 million. Minimum gross: $40-50 million US, $150-200 million foreign markets for a worldwide total of $190-250 million. 1.27-1.67x the budget = flop. (I am pulling the minimum gross number for this based on something close to the numbers on The Expendables 3 and Deadpool's minimum numbers on something closer to the original The Expendables. The rest, I am extrapolating from the box office and critical reaction to their predecessors.)
Doctor Strange. Budget: $130-140 million. Minimum gross: $200 million US and $400 million in foreign markets for a worldwide total of $600 million. 4.29-4.62x budget = success.
So, my predictions? No bombs (as in movies that don't even gross 1.0x their budget), exactly, but a couple that are probable flops (movies that gross above 1.0x their budget but below 2.0x their budget) with sufficient obvious danger signs.
I ration myself to one superhero film a year (although 2015 has been a complete miss) so:
2016 - X-Men Apocalypse. DoFP had some impressive action beats, the young cast has some names to watch alongside the already proven Fassbender/Lawrence/McAvoy trivumulate and the outsider moments Singer has highlighted in the past are a key reason for me to stick to the franchise.
2017 - WonderWoman. If we actressexuals don't go, who will?
Dawn of Justice is going to be great, despite all evidence to the contrary. I can feel it. #oldskoolDCfanboy
And sorry, that is No Ass, at least not in that photo. Pity.
BJT: If I were to go to the show for just one in 2016? Civil War. 2017? Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. 2018? Black Panther. 2019? Captain Marvel. X-Men: Apocalypse I'd maybe want to see on DVD. But, sorry, Wonder Woman is a disaster waiting to happen. The writer is Jason "Pan" Fuchs, the lead actress is untested, the romantic lead is Chris Pine. At least Captain Marvel has the writer of Inside Out attached, y'know?
wait wait wait, is Batman actually wearing a kitty collar and saying meow? Or is that TFE editorial move? Either way, it made me 1000% more interested in that cover, so it worked.
oh oh that's Black Panther I guess. Still amazing though. And insane.
The real question is though, when is the biopic bubble going to burst?
Volvagia: I understand your concerns about the relative quality of the WW/CM option, however there's a 2 year gap. If WW flops then you can bet the risk averse Marvel will yank CM from the schedules faster than you can say lasso of truth.
(I've also only seen Thor from marvel so I worry I'll be lost in the franchise back stories).
BJT: 1. I think that's very cynical. 2. Even if DC's Wonder Woman bombing means they'd back out of something that costs Captain Marvel money? (Even if I'd argue it's just as possible they'd see opportunity at the ground zero of another embarrassment.) Well, then we'd get either a Jessica Jones or Black Widow feature at $70-90 million. (Yeah, whatever happens, I expect Marvel will hold onto the "March 2019 is the solo superheroine slot" idea, just MAYBE spending less money on it.) For the former, they even have the perfect story structure for a movie: The identity tape story from the first five issues of Alias. They have up to three heroes they could possibly slot into that role now that Cap (the subject of the tape in the comic book) is a known figure.
Ant-Man (Yes, this was the first of these movies that made an obvious deal of the fact that our main character has a secret identity, so he's definitely a candidate for this plot and will probably hold onto it through Civil War. But before they got back the Spider-Man rights, I expect they would have had Lang in the Spider-Man role.)
Daredevil (It would be an easy way to say that the TV shows will influence cinema releases and, unless they decide it's the better choice, he does still have a secret identity.)
Spider-Man (Now, because of what role he had in Civil War, it's probable that Spider-Man won't have a secret identity heading into his franchise. But, though improbable, if he does still hold onto that identity, he's also a candidate.)
PACO -- Lol. Unfortunately never. That's been popular since the dawn of cinema.
Yeah, if they were gonna go with "great ass" for that tag line they needed to do a little more work to highlight the goods (which Mr. Reynolds most assuredly has).
I'd complain about the glut of comic book product, except I'm looking forward to all of the movies except for TMNT, and will probably watch all of the shows except for Agents of SHIELD. So I just have to own my enduring inner fanboy, I guess.
"Captain America" because it looks as good as the last one.
Probably to the disdain of most people here, I'll likely see all of these. X-Men: Apocalypse and Captain American: Civil War are the ones I'm most excited about (DOFP and WS were in my top five of 2014). My feelings on Batman V Superman have changed with each trailer: The teaser did nothing for me and I liked the Comic Con trailer a lot. Unfortunately, this new trailer tipped my feelings back to the negative scale. It was an okay trailer, overall, but some of the visuals look ugly and quality-wise, it looks like it could be all over the place.
In terms of the rest; I'm interested in the idea of Doctor Strange but I need a trailer to solidify my excitement. I actually enjoyed the most recent Ninja Turtles movie more than I though I would and I think this one could be better. Surprisingly, the two I'm most iffy about are Deadpool and Suicide Squad. Deadpool because the trailer did nothing for me and Suicide Squad because David Ayer directed Sabotage and that was a piece of shit.
As for the TV shows; Heroes Reborn is almost done and I won't be too upset if they don't renew it; I like Supergirl; I'll catch up on Agents Of Shield when it goes on hiatus; Can't wait until Agent Carter comes back; Gave up on Gotham after the first two episodes; Haven't watched Daredevil or Jessica Jones; Gave up on The Flash after the first episode; Never watched Arrow but I'm strangely looking forward to Legends Of Tomorrow.
Ultimately, I'm not too worried or tired out by the genre yet. I see a minimum of fifty movies a year and dozens of other TV shows, so Superhero stuff is but a small percentage of what I watch in general.
Daniel Armour - if you've never watched Arrow and gave up on Flash after one episode (big mistake, btw) then you are going to be soooo lost watching Legends of Tomorrow.
YES:
X-Men: Apocalypse - I'm just a X-fanboy and I've enjoyed their soft reboot of the series plus who wouldn't want more Fassbender and McAvoy?
Captain America: Civil War - The 2nd CA film was the best of the Phase 2 films not having to do with galaxy's guardians so I'm all in. PLUS SEBASTIAN STAN FOREVER.
Doctor Strange - Yeah, I hate Cumberbatch cast in the role too but TILDA! CHIWETEL! MCADAMS! MIKKELSEN!
MAYBE SO:
Suicide Squad - The casting is cool and I dig the villain team concept. But it's DC and they haven't done anything right yet.
Batman v. Superman - Despite the man candy that is Henry Cavill I didn't like Man of Steel at all and this is its sequel.
NO/NETFLIX:
Deadpool - This actually looks like it COULD be fun, but right now I don't think I'd spend $$$ on it unless it gets great/fun reviews.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 - No. Just... no.