Release Date Jockeying: Hey Studios, Keep Spreading the Wealth!
Wednesday, March 4, 2015 at 8:04PM The conversation about the 87th Oscars had barely died down yet when you could hear rumblings about the 88th Academy Awards. It's not just the "will they go back to five" question but the sudden jockeying for release dates for the oncoming battle. Today we've had two new November announcements (Brooklyn & The Danish Girl) to go along with the previously announced titles of potential interest.
And so far... miracle of miracles, things look pretty balanced... but will that continue?
Titles That Might be of Awards Interest In Some Way
Not a complete list of releases - links take you to articles
spring summer early birds
April 3rd WOMAN IN GOLD (Simon Curtis directing Helen Mirren) Weinstein Co
April 3rd EFFIE GRAY (Richard Laxton with Emma Thompson) Adopt Films
April 10th CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA (Olivier Assayas directing ACTRESSES)
May 1st AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON (Joss Whedon) Disney/Marvel
May 1st FAR FROM MADDING CROWD (Thomas Vinterberg) Fox Searchlight
June 12th JURASSIC WORLD (Colin Trevorrow) Universal
July 1st ME AND EARL AND THE DYING GIRL (Sundance sensation) Fox Searchlight
July 24th PAN (Joe Wright) a Peter Pan prequel of sorts Warner Bros
July 24th IRRATIONAL MAN (Woody Allen directing Joaquin Phoenix) SPC
July 31st SOUTHPAW (Antoine Fuqua directing Jake Gyllenhaal) Weinstein Co
Aug 7th RICKI & THE FLASH (Jonathan Demme directing Meryl Streep) Sony
Aug 28th CROUCHING TIGER 2 (Yuen Wo-Ping) Weinstein Co./Netflix
Fall. 'Prestige Season' whatever that means
Sept 4th JANE GOT A GUN (Gavin O'Connor directing Natalie Portman) Relativity/Weinstein Co
Sept 11th TRIPLE NINE (John Hillcoat directing lotsa names) Open Road
Sept 18th BLACK MASS / WHITEY BULGER (Scott Cooper directing Depp) Warner Bros
Sept 18th SICARIO (Denis Villeneuve directing Emily Blunt) Lionsgate
Sept 18th EVEREST (Baltasar Kormakur directing Jake Gyllenhaal) Universal
Sept 18th PAWN SACRIFICE (Edward Zwick directing Tobey Maguire) Bleecker Street
Oct 2nd THE WALK (Robert Zemeckis) same story as doc winner Man on Wire
Oct 9th STEVE JOBS (Danny Boyle directing Michael Fassbender) Universal
Oct 16th CRIMSON PEAK (Guillermo Del Toro) Universal
Oct 23rd THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES (Billy Ray) remake of foreign winner
Nov 6th SPECTRE (Sam Mendes & 007) MGM
Nov 7th BROOKLYN (John Crowley directing Saoirse Ronan) Fox Searchlight
Thanksgiving through New Years - The Glut! But so far not terribly crowded
Nov 25th THE MARTIAN (Ridley Scott directing Matt Damon) Fox
Nov 25th MIDNIGHT SPECIAL (Jeff Nichols directing Michael Shannon) Warner Bros
Nov 27th THE DANISH GIRL (Tom Hooper directing Eddie Redmayne) Focus
Dec 11th THE LADY IN THE VAN (Nicholas Hytner directing Maggie Smith) Sony
Dec 18th STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS Disney
Dec 25th JOY (David O. Russell directing JLaw) Fox
Dec 25th THE REVENANT (Alejandro González Iñárritu directing DiCaprio) Fox
Dec 31st A LITTLE CHAOS (Alan Rickman directing Kate Winslet) Focus
Of course this is but a small sampling. Many Oscar contenders don't have dates yet or will show up at the fall festivals by surprise. So our question is this: will this spread the wealth scheduling continue? Have they learned the recent lessons that summer through November can be pretty great months for gold statue seeking? [MORE...]
Hell, just THIS EXACT WEEKEND LAST YEAR The Grand Budapest Hotel and many many months later led the Oscar nominations. The last several years of Oscars have favored early headstarts for the eventual Best Picture winner...and quite a few nominees. Argo and 12 Years a Slave opened in October, and what's more their presumed strongest opponents Lincoln and Gravity opened in November and October. Boyhood went the summer route and though it eventually lost the big prize to Birdman, November, it wasn't the summer opening working against it (that was one of those 'small' films that needed to grow in stature during release ... which it did). Summer can actually be great for Oscar contenders since its perfect timing for a second wave attack with the DVD Bluray release. Summer worked for The Hurt Locker (June) which was free of head-turning stars and with a director that was acclaimed but not part of the club; it absolutely would not have won with a December release as there would have been no time for that slow burn realization that we were all looking at an arguable masterpiece.
Fact: NONE of the Best Picture winners of the this decade began their releases in December. In fact we haven't had a December opening win Best Picture since Million Dollar Baby (2004). This decade we've had one June, two Octobers, and three Novembers (the latest to-open winners: The Kings Speech and The Artist which opened on the coasts for Thanksgiving weekend).
December is still good for nominations. Not so much wins.
And yet the December glut is still a very real problem. Common wisdom has always been December due to "short attention span" but it isn't as infallible a strategy as many think and it's a downright terrible strategy for some films that need time to find their fanbase and could get easily lost in the glut. What it seems to work best for are A list projects that EVERYONE will be seeing over the holidays and possibly with family (like a new Eastwood or a holiday blockbuster with Streep) or films that are very flashy that can't risk losing any initial shine. Consider the way Chicago started losing heat to The Pianist in the final weeks though it still prevailed or the huge nomination tally of American Hustle which won nothing. December can also be a good time for films with multiple attractive elements that are just never going to be real threats as winners (Into the Woods, War Horse, True Grit, etcetera). They're fresh in the memory so they often steal coveted random craft nominations that should have gone to worthier earlier fare.
So as the studios begin announcing dates we'll see which ones are wise to how this has been playing out recently.
Reader Comments (19)
With Netflix original movies, are they going to be eligible for Emmy consideration as original TV Movies, just like the shows are Emmy eligible? This could really give HBO a run for its money.
juliette binoche, saoirse ronan, emily blunt, carey mulligan, maggie smith - who will be sacrificed for the inevitable meryl nod?
I would love to live in a world where Jennifer Lawrence did not earn her inevitable fourth nomination.
I still kind of can't believe that The Danish Girl is real/happening.
Chris, it's going to be interesting. It's understood that the Netflix movies - like Cary Fukunaga's next, and like The CROUCHING TIGER sequel - will also get theatrica releases, but will Netflix get them first? It would make sense that they get theatrical, Oscar-qualifying releases first just like their documentary VIRUNGA. But then, yeah, THE SQUARE was eligible for Emmys so I haven't the slightest idea. Maybe the Academy should be spending resources fixing this situation where people like Essie Davis are ineligible rather than umming and aahing over how many best picture nominees? *shrug*
Looking at this list I think Jake G. should have a hit with "Everest" which is slotted for September. I read "Into Thin Air" and it's a very compelling book. A dramatic story with A list cast that looks good, I hope they do the story justice.
I'm a big Joe Wright fan, but I have no idea what to expect from "Pan". Of course it will be visually interesting but the actual story of Peter Pan does not grab me. And Rooney Mara as Tiger Lily has me feeling nervous. Still, Wright is always interesting so I'm looking forward to this instead of Marvel fare.
Still "ugh"-ing over the fact that there's going to be ANOTHER Peter Pan movie... is it really that appealing? Is it?
Nathaniel, I'm confused. You wrote that there haven't been any Best Picture winners in the 21st century to debut in December, but then you only list six ("one June, two Octobers, and three Novembers"). Am I missing something? Shouldn't there be fifteen?
20th Oscar nomination (and possibly 4th win) for Meryl Streep please!
so excited for Irrational Man, please give Joaquin Phenix his own Oscar too.
(sorry-not sorry for the way early awards talk)
I want "Jonathan Demme directing Meryl Streep" on a t-shirt.
Jase --oops. That's silly error. I shall fix. I was conflating new millenium with 2010. ugh.
Aw. Except for Me and Earl..., no others from Sundance? I was really hoping for a Halloween double-feature of Crimson Peak and The Witch.
And good for Sony, finally following Streep's advice to open a woman-centric film during the lazy days of summer instead of during the holidays when moms and wives are way too busy to see movies. This should make a bunch of cash.
I'm with Philip H. The Peter Pan story in all its iterations is super boring.
There is real faith in Brooklyn then.
Also: Oliver Stone's Snowden.
Pam -- well it certainly worked for Streep with Julie & Julia and Devil Wears Prada.
Mark -- it's a beauty. i could see it going places. (unless it flops... probably needs audience to root for it)
I'm actually wondering if Creed could be a contender. Pun not really intended. I think I'm the only one who thinks there could be a possible supporting nom for Stallone. It seems to be a sad goodbye to an iconic character and there is a talented director at the helm.
Josh: Of 44 films I'm considering as potential Best Picture threats right now, I have Creed at 23. Top 10 right now is Inside Out, Joy, The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, Concussion, The Martian, Ant-Man, Macbeth, The Dressmaker, Ricki and the Flash or, by reason for position, Pixar, O. Russell, AGI, Tarantino, Will Smith, Ridley Scott, Marvel Studios Posterity Nod, Shakespeare, Odd Concept, Demme & Streep.
The last December release was Million Dollar Baby in 2004, no? I see that a number of films do not have release dates yet, so I'm sure this will fill up quickly (Demolition, Carol, etc.)
I don't think Creed as much of a BP nom but it could have a shot at Supporting Actor I think for sure. Even though its crazy to think of Stallone of a nominee he could get a sympathy vote. Plus for all the awards Rocky won, Stallone was not on any of them. But I will admit it is a wild card prediction, but those are the most fun. I just read the book The Revenant and wonder if it will be oscar's cup of tea. I believe it will be pretty gory. DiCaprio will be great, but a heads up he doesn't have that much dialogue. Could be like Redford in All Is Lost.