April Foolish Oscar Predix - Supporting Actors
Monday, April 6, 2015 at 3:30PM As is the case every year the supporting categories are incredibly foggy early on. One rarely knows which supporting players have big roles (unless they're co-leads campaigning fraudulently which we should always expect). And then there's the matter of who will steal scenes and who will be reduced to glorified cameos even if their roles sound good on paper.
Will Poulter and Tom Hardy heading to shoot scenes for The Revenant
Perhaps the most important thing to remember about this Foolish early punditry: Supporting players, unlike leads, almost never win traction unless their film is also well liked. That adds yet another layer of clouds blocking future vision.
All of which makes April Foolish supporting pictures an exercize in fantasy. But it's fun! The chart is now up for Best Supporting Actor and to start things off I'm predicting an all newbie lineup. But looking over the general foggy field one could have genuine with high hopes for a couple of respected actors who've never had a real Oscar shot like Tom Hardy and Kyle Chandler, actors who have been mistreated by Oscar like Ralph Fiennes (future cinephiles will be driven mad puzzling how he missed for Grand Budapest Hotel) and Kurt Russell (tell me again how he missed for Silkwood?) and actors who fit right into Things Oscar Does like Seth Rogen (comic gone serious), Bradley Cooper (you like me you really like me) and so on. The chart is big and extensive because it's silly to rule anyone out before most films have begun screening.
Among films with large casts that we suspect are teeming with possibly eventful supporting players but who can really say are Warren Beatty's Untitled Howard Hughes Project, Quentin Tarantino's Hateful Eight, and the press expose of the Catholic Church scandal drama known as Spotlight
Some of "Spotlight"s key cast members: Keaton, Schreiber, Ruffalo, McAdams, Slattery, James
And that's not all. There's also the head-injury medical sports drama Concussion led by Will Smith, an FBI drama led by Emily Blunt called Sicario, and the all star period literary drama Genius which features Jude Law, Guy Pearce, Dominic West, and others as famous authors. There's also the Hollywood Blacklist drama Trumbo which is headlined by Bryan Cranston but features a lot of other actors as famous showbiz figures
Do you have any suspicions about this field or any wild card predictions?
Reader Comments (19)
Nat: As far as the actual "nod probabilities" from Concussion? Luke Wilson and Albert Brooks. They are, respectively, the big villain of the movie as the NFL Commissioner and Will Smith's Wikipedia notable mentor figure.
my big wild card pic is Stallone for Creed. I think it could happen. I would definitely love if Russell finally gets acknowledged though. He is such an underrated actor. I agree about silkwood and he was incredible in Miracle. In fact he was the reason Miracle worked.
I think that Jude Law has a very good chance to be nominated. I would put him inside the Top 5 at the moment.
Kurt Russell has felt like a winner since they announced it. Married to an Oscar-winner, has two other major movie stars in the family, acclaimed director, and he's never won.
Didn't leave this on the Best Picture list, stupidly, but my top 10 in three brackets:
The smell of a winner:
1. Inside Out
2. Joy
3. Concussion
The rest of the five:
4. The Revenant
5. The Hateful Eight
Impossible for 5, but plausible if they stay at 10:
6. The Martian
7. Ant-Man (I offer this now KIND OF knowing I shouldn't, but after their 2014, I'm thinking it's going to be really hard to buy Marvel Studios never managing a top 10 bow.)
8. Macbeth
9. The Dressmaker (I know this is more something this specific set of the web is hyper interested in as diva spectacle, but I'd say why not if it's a genuine surprise masterwork.)
10. Ricki and the Flash (In spite of the creaky concept, the "bad" Diablo Cody movie (Jennifer's Body) is more due to the miscast Megan Fox (though, how anyone thought she'd be anything outside of Bay related films, like Hollywood thought from 2009-2011, stuns) and she's an interesting enough writer that I'm sure it would be one of the better examples of the narrative regardless of gender.)
As far as this category? Top 10:
1. Bradley Cooper, Joy (On heat alone (4 nominations total in 3 years), I can't see a more likely winner on paper.)
2. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
3. Walton Goggins, The Hateful Eight (I don't buy the "John Wayne-esque" comparisons are going to wind up entirely or primarily positive and Dern's probably an "older Calvin Candie" style cartoon. I'm placing my bets on Goggins, Madsen (two decades overdue for appearing on a ballot due to that chilling Reservoir Dogs work that somehow WASN'T cited at the 1992 Indie Spirits) and Jackson as drawing the heat if anyone from this does.)
4. Michael Douglas, Ant-Man (If he's really good, he's the first big salvo of an originating full live performance and could seriously draw attention away from a turn in a respected film that would normally secure a nomination.)
5. Luke Wilson, Concussion (He's the big villain of the piece and if Concussion does turn out to be a win threat I don't see how he doesn't make it.)
6. James Spader, Avengers: Age of Ultron (We've known for more than a decade that, eventually, a mo-cap performance would wind up on the ballot. I would be saddened that Serkis wasn't the first, but at least Serkis is in this movie.
7. Hugo Weaving, The Dressmaker (He's a very good actor who mainstream audiences have seen a lot in movies that take themselves seriously that they generally love (The Matrix, V for Vendetta, LOTR Trilogy, Captain America: The First Avenger). So, he's a genuinely famous character actor right now and, unlike Seth Rogen, you kind of know the Academy is watching for their first opportunity to cite him.
8. Cillian Murphy, In the Heart of the Sea. (They owe him for both those 2005 performances way more than they owe Tom Holland anything for The Impossible.)
9. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (If it happens, it's a single nom most likely, but as a last hurrah sympathy nod for a franchise they did love at one point, it's possible at least.)
10. Daniel Radcliffe, Victor Frankenstein. (The Harry Potter franchise earned Hollywood A LOT of money and I entirely buy that this showy potentially co-lead disability turn, wouldn't be the craziest prospect for a single nom.)
Nearly every screening reaction I've seen for Carol mentions that Kyle Chandler is absolutely terrible in it.
And I'm sorry Nat, but you're completely sleeping on Mark Rylance (NOT Billy Magnussen) in Bridge of Spies. He's in the very highest tier of respected, legendary theater actors, winning two Oliviers (and nom'ed for two more) and three Tonys, He's also one of the leads in Spielberg's The BFG. If he's in contention, you can bet your ass every BAFTA/Oscar crossover voter will be supporting him.
If I had to guess who has the juiciest role (other than Hanks) in Bridge of Spies, it would be Rylance. It is INCREDIBLY difficult to lure him away from theater.
I've heard the same thing about Kyle Chandler in Carol. It's strange because he's normally a good actor and the rest of the cast are said to be good in it.
Kate & Jackie -- well,i have learned in my year doing this not to trust test screening reactions. I'm taking all of this on "no one has seen these films" which is basically how i feel about them, test screening or no.
i love mark rylance and i hope he's great in it. But i'm already reeling from him suddenly NOT being the lead in that alone in berlin movie.
Robert Redford in Truth? It's a big, maybe co-lead role (the lead is Blanchett). And Robert is way way way overdue after All is Lost.
I'm with Kate on Mark Rylance, with "Wolf Hall", American audiences will be exposed to him and the critical adulation his work inspires. "Bridge of Spies" will get plenty of attention and support, so I will be watching for Rylance to become a nominee.
In this category it would be foolish to bet against Bradley Cooper who is getting automatic nominee attention these days. After Cooper it gets murky...
Tom Hardy is magnetic on screen but will the film be a favourite?
I like your thinking about Kurt Russell but he always seems to miss somehow.
I doubt Hollywood is feeling that forgiving towards Seth Rogen just yet, rewarding him with an Oscar nomination seems a bridge too far.
My 2 favourites are Rylance & Cooper, I simply can't guess at the rest at this stage.
My word! Between Hardy, Magnusson, Chandler, Law and Cooper, plus retro '80s hotness Russell and Baldwin, this has the makings of a sexy, steamy supporting lineup of my dreams!
So I'd say Rogen is a lock.
Kurt Russell & Kyle Chandler ! Everest is not noted. I think the cast is stellar. I wonder if it is going the gritty survival drama route or pure action flick.
I believe that Rogen earning an Oscar nom is one of the four signs of the Apocalypse.
@ Kate and Jackie - any links for these Carol screenings?
I remember GRAND reactions after the August: Osage County screenings with people bowing down and calling it Master but in retrospect it's nowhere near a great movie, am I right?
On another note, critics called The Paperboy a trainwreck at Cannes but I really liked the movie.
I like Watanabe's chances in Sea of Trees because it will likely be category fraud. Someone from The Hateful Eight will be nominated, and at first glance, Bichir or Tatum look like good bets sight unseen. A bounceback nom for Keaton is also a decent bet. If Idris Elba is great in Beasts of No Nation, I think he would have a lot of industry support.
My top 10:
1. Elba - Beasts of No Nation
2. Watanabe - The Sea of Trees
3. Hardy - The Revenant
4. Bichir - The Hateful Eight
5. Keaton - Spotlight
6. Brendan Gleeson - Suffragette
7. Kyle Chandler - Carol
8. Benicio del Toro - Sicario
9. Christoph Waltz - Spectre
10. Cooper or DeNiro - Joy
I'd say Rodrigo Santoro will be the supporting turn that might stand out on "The 33", as he'll be outside the mine... judging from the trailer, he may have a candy role, and he's a familiar face in Hollywood already (300, I love you Phillip Morris).
On the Leading Actor scenario, it looks a really engaging year... I'd say Ian McKellen is the clear frontrunner, but I'd also keep - specially after the trailers - an eye on Antonio Banderas ("The 33") and even Arnold Schwarzennegger ("Maggie"), both candy roles and looking really good...
I know, I know, Academy Award nominee Arnold Schwarzennegger... it was not so long ago, when people did laugh at the chance of Clint Eastwood, Sandra Bullock, Matthew McConaghey or Penelope Cruz being Oscar nominees or even winners. I even consider Jean-Claude van Damme was robbed of a nom for the magnificent "JCVD" (which Birdman predates so shamelessly)...
Isn't "JCVD" + "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty" = "Birdman", by the way?
I am currently amused by the idea of Cooper, Cumberbatch, Keaton and Carell all getting nominations again. I will likely hate it if it somehow happens, but it is amusing now.
@ Jesus Alonso
I'm a fan of Van Damme's perf in JCVD too.
Some people choose to take an acting class.The most important thing you can do is build your network and watch experienced supportive actors who famous for their acting.