Oscar Chart Updates: Picture, Director, Screenplay
Thursday, July 14, 2016 at 7:30PM It's time to overhaul those April Fool's Oscar Predictions. Release dates have shifted around a bit with Miss Sloane (starring Jessica Chastain) and The Founder (starring Michael Keaton) moving to a very crowded December. Same as it ever was. Quite strangely every Oscar hopeful wants to open opposite Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, so those that have firmly planted their flags in October and November like Birth of a Nation, Billy Lynn's Halftime Walk, and Loving are looking extra smart since that's where Best Picture winners come from for a whole decade now. So why do studios keep banking on December? The answer is twofold. IF you don't get buried in the glut (that's the risk) you can make a lot of money during the holidays and get a higher nomination count than you probably could have managed had you opened in October since you're so fresh in the memory. That's what happened to The Big Short, Carol, Star Wars, and The Revenant last year though half of those did not manage Best Picture honors, even with the benefit of being fresh despite a plentiful stack of nominations.
Will the screenplay branch be appreciative of The Lobster's eccentric originality?
Sadly it doesn't look like we have a major summer player this year like we did last year with Mad Max Fury Road. Though we can hold out hope that The Lobster, Love & Friendship, The Witch and some other goodies from the year's first half will get a second wind later in the season. Anyway, the updates!
BEST PICTURE | BEST DIRECTOR
Faith is increasing in Billy Lynn's Halftime Walk and Loving and La La Land (though they were already doing well in our charts). Faith has decreased in Fences -- they sure rushed that one, didn't they, since they're already done filming and The Zookeeper's Wife has moved to 2017. (Surely a few more titles will also exit and wait it out)
BEST SCREENPLAYS
We'll assume Loving is an Original Screenplay for now, though there's a documentary and other writings on that topic. Since Oscar is weird about nominating musicals for Screenplay this is one category where La La Land is not predicted. But we've thrown Miss Sloane onto the chart to see how it feels. In Adapted Screenplay we're banking on Love & Friendship being the early bird that sticks around since it became such an arthouse hit and it's so delightful and so much was made in profiles and reviews and interviews of Whit Stillman's Jane Austen connection.
More updates to come!
Reader Comments (10)
It could be Chinese whispers, but I know a guy who knows a guy who worked on Lion. Apparently the studio saw an early cut and immediately starting prepping a full scale Oscar campaign because of how happy they were with it, including a big push for Kidman who is apparently ace. Gossip mill? Perhaps. A chance to release my inner Kidmaniac? I'll take it!
Well, that is disheartening that even here, not a single woman director is on this list.
The justifications are usually that their movies are too small, not important enough, and they are just not experienced enough.
Let's at least consider:
- Mira Nair: Queen of Katwe
- Amma Asante: A United Kingdom
- Kelly Reichardt: Certain Women
And if it's ever released:
Courtney Hunt: The Whole Truth
Adri - i had Amma Asante and Niki Caro on the list on the last update but have since heard negative buzz about Asante's film and Caro's got pushed to 2017 but Mira Nair is a great idea.
Wait... is THE LOBSTER not being considered at all? You mention it in the piece, but on the screenplay predictions page it's neither a predicted nominee, a potential nominee, or a "consider from the first half of the year" title. Did you just forget it?
Glenn - THANKS. oops. good catch. Fixed.
what changed about Fences? Wasn't it always scheduled to shoot around Apr-June and released at the end of the year... has its release date been announced?
Where is 'Lost city of Z'?
Silence
Billy Lynn's
And 'Z' are my favorito contenders.
'cause I'm know consider Manchester by the Sea and Birth of a Nation nominees.
*favorito = favorite
*Know = now
I hadn't heard any buzz at all re Amma A's film, so that's intriguing. Had heard all kinds of good buzz about Niki Caro's Zookeeper's Wife, from test screenings gossip. Focus's push to spring for that makes me think they are just going to throw everything they've got at Loving. I think they're making a mistake, but if they're willing to buy awards with enough P&A (a la Weinstein) then maybe Loving will surprise me. As it stands, for me, I think it will get a BP nom and actress and that's all (and no wins). Cannes proved too tepid, and I suspect word of mouth will not be as great as they hope. Queen of Katwe looks very pretty, but not everyone will want to see that film (unfortunately).
Thank you so much for the information.