Which actresses are we underestimating in the nomination hunt?
Monday, November 27, 2017 at 10:45AM by Nathaniel R
Are we underestimating them: Winslet, Bening, Chastain, Haddish, Vega, Dench, Williams, Stone, Chau, Blige, Scott Thomas, Gadot
If you look around the web you'd suspect we are closer to Oscar nominations than we actually are. Two months remain before we have our Oscar nominations (57 days to be exact) so there's a month of campaigning left before the Academy even starts filling out their nomination ballots! Despite the plentiful time remaining and few precursors yet announcing (NBR is first tomorrow), the internet seems convinced that we're narrowed down to about 6 or 7 players for 5 slots in virtually all the acting categories. But is it this cut and dry?
It's likely not.
We know the general field at this point but there's still a lot of wiggle room, some films/people are always underestimated and the reverse at this point. But even if none of the 12 women we've including in the image above end up with a difficult to snag Oscar nomination, I'm curious if any of them will be cited anywhere this season from precursors to the Globes to SAG to regional critics groups. What do you suspect?
RELATED: Updated charts for Best Actress and Supporting Actress. Thoughts?
Reader Comments (98)
At this point I would rank Saoirse close to the front of the pack, no? Her omission feels weird!
I think you are underestimating Saoirse Ronan. The film is a big hit critically and at the indie box office, she's the title character, her press tour in which she is teamed with the equally charming Gerwig is on fire. She's in, I think.
Though 6th is not far off from the top 5.
Swap Dench for Ronan and I think you've got the Actress nominees.
I would love Hawkins to win but I'm doubtful that she will.
At this point I see Ronan winning Actress and Janney winning Supporting Actress with Robbie and Metcalf close runners up. I don't think they would give Actress and Supporting Actress to Lady Bird or I, Tonya, they'll spread the wealth between the two. Ronan will also be 3 noms in and due more of a win than Robbie.
Supportive wife/real-life character/respected veteran actress - haven't seen the film, but on paper Scott Thomas still looks like a serious contender to me. And I kind of wonder about Hong Chau, if the film takes off over the holidays ...
That said, who I really wonder about re: Supporting Actress is Lesley Manville. I am deeply confused by the studio's decision to silence critics from discussing The Phantom Thread until after the NBR, NYFCC, and LAFCA winners are announced.
Not only do I see La Dench as a likely nominee, I can fathom a scenario in which VICTORIA AND ABDUL nets upwards of half a dozen Oscar nominations.
I think Julia is a serious contender in Wonder....Good critics + excellent box office + beloved actress
In the BA category I think you're overstimating Judi Dench, her film is quite mediocre (even if it's an art-house hit) and got cold reviews; and I'd rank Sally Hawkins quite higher than a fourth place. Plus, I'm still hoping for that fifth nomination for Annette Bening (her film is doing quite good at the UK box-office).
In the BSA category, I'm not so fond of May J. Blige performance in Mudbound... and even if I still have to see Darkest Hour, the "supporting wife" role, the prestigious historical drama and her reputation could take Kristin Scott Thomas to her second and long-overdue Oscar nomination (at least I hope so).
Ronan should be second on this chart. I think Chastain may be underestimated, too. Molly's Game seems like a film that could do very well commercially, right before nominations.
I also think a lot of people are overestimating the awards chances for The Shape of Water. It's not good that it completely missed both the Gothams and the Independent Spirits. I've seen the trailer several times in the theater now, and the audience never has any reaction.
Here's a shout-out to Daniela Vega and (I know she is a longer-than-a-longshot) Eili Harboe in Thelma. I, too like to see Sally Hawkins in the lead actress category. Any of these actresses getting a nomination would be enough for me. But then I have not seen a lot of other films.
In such a year of great performances by many actresses (just like any years isn't it?), giving a nomination to Judi Dench for just 'doing her thing' and nothing more in a forgettable movie would be a terrible waste for any actress who would be in the sixth slot.
Last year's Amy's snub still stings (even if Florence Foster Jenkins, another Frears flick, was waaaay better than V&A, and Meryl waaaay funnier than Dench in V&A), so please AMPAS, don't do it again !!!
In Julia's case, even if i haven't seen the film yet, i'm always glad when people remember she's such a charismatic star. Even when they nominate her in the wrong category (I'm still not over August's category fraud... she was such a great lead !)
I would put money on Ronan getting a nomination. Everybody knows she's a quality actress and Lady Bird is getting huge buzz.
I think Nathaniel is cautiously correct about not counting out Dench, but that's because of the pattern of the Academy. But I suspect she's not going to get it.
And at this stage I have to say so long to Annette Bening. She's amazing. We love her. She's a class act, but Film Stars is such a flimsy film that her performance cannot salvage it.
What I love about this race is that it seems so unpredictable.
I tend to agree that Blige is in the hunt for the Best Supporting Actress nomination, but man what a slight performance to make it. Other than that one scene with Mulligan, there's nothing really there and the narrative doesn't care about her at all. I know I'm in the minority of people who disliked Mudbound, but even the parts I liked-Blige feels so easy to forget, and part of me wonders if this is factoring more due to her celebrity and the novelty of nominating a musician-turned-actor,which would be a pity with so many actual character actors in the field this year.
I also tend to agree with Nathaniel that Judi Dench is probably closer than we'd all admit. It's a hit, she's beloved by Oscar, and she'll almost certainly be in precursor conversations (the BAFTA's, obviously, but perhaps even SAG considering their propensity for more populist fare and Mirren). If history has proven anything, it's that AMPAS hasn't fully-embraced Greta Gerwig yet, and Ronan is part of that package.
In terms of winning, I feel like it's Janney, and either Robbie or Streep. I don't know what they're thinking opening The Post in limited release over Christmas, considering that a big release in December would build it some momentum. I wonder if they initially didn't think the Best Actress field would have room for Streep to take a fourth, but the lineup feels roughly like it could get her in. And also, I think Glenn Close truly could have bested this field if The Wife is as good as people say-no one here is a juggernaut.
JULIA ROBERTS totally!
What happened to Kate Winslet's buzz?
Sony out of courtesy for Le Bening decided against running Close this year. Both women need their competitive Oscar breakthrough.
I think Ronan, Hawkins and McDormand are locks. Other than that it's murky. If you assume Streep and Dench will have major support then who is out? I believe it's Robbie. Allison Janney is going to suck up a lot of this film's oxygen and while you could say the same for Metcalf, Ronan is a 2-time nominee of a film that I think will be more of a major player across the board than I,Tonya. I still think Dench is out because there isn't as much V&A buzz as her last Frears collaboration. But if she does get in I think it will be at Margot Robbie's expense.
Annette Bening is officially the "fetch" of TFE... no offense lol
Also watch out for Diane Kruger. Multiple critics awards should come, and a Globe nomination seems likely with Ronan, Robbie and Dench going Comedy.
Suzanne I noticed that same thing about The Shape Of Water trailer. Weirdly the original trailer was much more exciting not sure why they changed it.
Dench,I too thought she'd be doing her thing but in the later scenes in the film she is touching,commanding,wounded,happy,exasperated and sad,I don't mind her being nominated for V and A at all.
I have said since early 2017 watch out for Wonder and Julia in it.Janney and Metcalf are not locked up for the win just yet.
Everything is pure PR hype until the final product is released. As of now, although I haven't seen it, I think that Judi Dench is on shaky ground. That film already seems gone. I'd give Annette Bening that spot at this post. Seems that there's a carryover sentiment from last year's snub.
I'd also that to fully see I, Tonya to believe the M. Robbie hype. The main character isn't that revered, but Robbie might give her a 'Rocky' underdog vibe. The trailer almost seemed like a John Water's film. I'm hoping that the film is good because I'd like to see Robbie and Janney recognized.
I keep hearing the no scene of her own Blige thing going on yet she has the chocoalte scene with her son,the scene with her husband before she goes working for Mulligan,the body washing scene,it's about her prescene and realness in the period and she sold that but without big speeches and lots of tears.
Too low on these lists - I'd say probably Chastain for Actress and definitely Chau in Supporting. Anyone who talks about Downsizing talks about Chau, and polarizing is what you need for a nomination.
Overestimated? Every time I see Robbie mentioned, I see something along the lines of "someone needs to be a first time nominee." Um... no they do not. The Post, Three Billboards, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and even Victoria & Abdul seem more likely as BP nominees than I Tonya, which will ironically have the same "low caliber" issue that plagues its leading lady. Right now I'm predicting Robbie and Ronan over Dench, but if Dench gets in, I think Robbie is out.
I'd be shocked if Janney or Metcalf missed. Hunter is certainly third but feels like a possible Oscar morning snub. Spencer makes sense given the love for Shape of Water and her current streak. I really do think Chau gets in over Blige though. A total surprise is possible - maybe Keener from Get Out? - but I'd guess those five.
I think Saorise Ronan and Jessica Chastain are being underestimated. The former has rave reviews, a financially successful film, and a lot of buzz. Jessica Chastain also has strong reviews and has been very active on the campaign trail.
Unfortunately, I have a feeling the brilliant Sally Hawkins will end up sitting this year out. She's not a big campaigner, her film was completely overlooked at the Gothams and Independent Spirits, and the film seems to have little buzz. Her raves might be able to get her in in a less competitive year, but when more than 5 other contenders also have great reviews, other factors come into play more than usual.
I know it's virtually impossible, but my dream on Oscar nominations morning is that Sally Hawkins is nominated .... for Maudie! If only all the attention she's getting now for The Shape of Water would just bring some attention to Maudie. Such a wonderful performance. And Ethan Hawke has never been better, also.
I don't get the Hunter fuss or predicting her over KST
Agree that Dench is likely out and Ronan is a lock. I think the 5th spot is likely to be a tough fight between Chastain and Robbie.
The locks are Streep, Ronan, McDormand and Hawkins.
markgordonuk:
I completely agree about Hunter. Hated the movie and was completely unimpressed by her.
Name I'd like to see in the mix: Sarah Silverman for Battle of the Sexes. A total hoot!
Hunter is the only person whom I have seen where I sit and think "An Oscar Nomination Really!"
Stop Mentioning Kate Winslet. STOP MENTIONG AND SUPPORING WODDY ALLEN MOVIES. GET WITH IT NATHANIEL. Please I beg you to stop supporting a child molester. You can’t honesyly think it has any chance at any nomination. We all know you love Kate Winslet but use you brain instead of your heat please.
I have been a fan of your blog for YEARS, don’t make me stop reading because of your stupidity and refusal to get with the times. DO NOT SEE OR SUPPORT THE MOVIE WONDR WHEEL.
Honestly, Ronan is more of a lock than Sally Hawkins IMO. The reticence in predicting her is a little strange - she has rave reviews and the film has legs and is drawing in large audiences. It’s not nearly as niche as people said it was.
Hawkins could easily be the Adams of this year - widely acclaimed star of a genre film who is surprisingly snubbed on Oscar morning.
It’s weird how many were not even predicting Robbie a few weeks ago, and now many think she can win. Funny how buzz works.
I.e. Judi Dench, I agree that she is more of a threat than people think. Her BAFTA nod is a given, a Golden Globe nod is highly likely, and I can easily see her Woman in Gold herself to a SAG nomination.
Saoirse at 6 will surely go over well in the comments.
Feminist -- well, since you asked so nicely, calling me stupid. In all seriousness, though, as an Oscar pundit i can't pretend a movie doesn't exist or that the career of an actress with 7 nominations and a win doesn't exist. (Believe me there are movies I wish I could do that about every year -- like Mel Gibson last year or I Tonya this year which to me doesn't promote domestic abuse and child abuse but thinks theyr'e just hilarious. I found it kind of disgusting but everyone else loves it, so I'll have to suffer through the Oscar nominations)
If you look around the web Winslet is in the top ten of every single awards site chart. Have you also written to each of those websites to ask them to pretend she doesn't exist? [Also: nowhere in this article did I tell people to go see Wonder Wheel]
This is asking me to punish a woman because of the alleged crimes of a man who was never charged. Nope!
Cass - LOL. I think maybe i'm worried LADY BIRD is too good to be true. I love it like everyone else loves it but in the end it is all of these things Oscar usually doesn't like: a comedy, a high school movie, about women. Maybe they'll make an exception like they did with JUNO. I hope so.
Faith Nathaniel Faith they will do good by us Actressexuals,
Dench
McDormand
Robbie
Ronan
Streep
Today I'm thinking Shape of Water isn't the acting contender we think it is.
I echo the sentiment about Ronan. No way she’s missing a nod. I have her ties as favourite to win alongside McDormand.
Rami -- hmm. I would personally be shocked if Ronan wins for this (even though i love her in it)
Unless Wonder Wheel makes the Blue Jasmine money (and I think it won't) I doubt it that Winslet will receive a BA nomination.
The critics aren't there for Wonder Wheel either and it seems that the story doesn't have the pathos of Blue Jasmine and Match Point. I'd say it was well-constructed pathos that made these two films strikingly different from the rest of Allen's outings over the last 20 years.
I also doubt it that Dench will snatch a nomination. She's not going to win for that performance, why bother nominating it at all? Nominate the best stuff. More non-winners and first time nominees please!!! It's already way too boring that two previous winners are almost guaranteed a slot (McDormand, Streep). We don't need a 3rd (Winslet or Dench) in a lesser movie.
YES to Ronan (I think she's going to win)
YES to Hawkins (she deserves an Oscar)
I'm okay with Robbie since she's never been nominated before.
Dench, easily. Victoria & Abdul made a good amount of money, she's actually campaigning and she's reprising the role that gave her an Oscar nod (the first of her career, actually). And possibly she's getting BFCA, Globe (in comedy) and BAFTA nods
Although her Oscar chances have diminished to pretty much zero, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pfeiffer popping up as a few critics groups best supp actress. I know there’s a lot of hate for it, but mother! was also loved by a lot of critics, and they may want to reward it somehow and somewhere. Stealing the show in MOTOE won’t hurt either.
Do we all have to prepare ourselves for a MARGOT ROBBIE sweep? I just can't....
I think Chastain is out and Emma Stone is in.
Like the others, I think it is weird that Nathaniel is not that sure of Ronan. I hope that Streep and Dench are out cause they are not that great (judging by the trailers)
To me:
Ronan
Hawkings
Chastain
then
McDormand
Robbie
maybe:
Streep
Dench
Vega
Kruger
I think the comments are overestimating Ronan. I agree with Nathaniel about the reluctance to predict her, raves and box office success and all.
McDormand and Streep seem in. I also see a case of preference blocking predictions. Dench checks off a lot of things that gets nominations, including massive success with a demographic. She's also guaranteed to snag at least 2 major precursor nominations (BAFTA, Globes) and I think a third is really, really likely (SAG). She's a formidable contender.
Robbie's role seems to be a Dallas Buyers Club or Fighter type that is big, loud, super acting-y and that gets voters support. She's also a young hot movie star (more so than Ronan, who reminds me of Williams and Winslet with their first nominations). My current guess is that unless Streep builds the momentum (and she could), this is Robbie's to lose.
So that's 4. Hawkins has genre against her, so I think it's her or Ronan for the last slot. Going with Hawkins for now but watch out if Lady Bird keeps being a hit and Shape of Water doesn't tale off as well.
Mixed feelings about Chastain: She can carry a movie because the camera loves her but she's not great with dialogue. Some of the line readings in Miss Sloane were comical, but I still enjoyed her in it? She's just so self-aware onscreen.
Honestly, if Chastain can resurrect the medium-sized studio movie for adults with strong female characters, I don't care if she never gets an Oscar nomination (or is as good as she was in The Help) again. We need her where she is.
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My two cents: People are overestimating Margot Robbie. That film has not been out and there is no guarantee that it will hit or connect with audiences. The idea that Margot would even be nominated or win an Oscar for playing Tonya Harding is a giant stretch.
Who I do think people are underestimating is Meryl Streep. She could win her 4th for playing Kay Graham in a Spielberg film that may win best picture, due to its stars and timeliness. If it wins best picture, then the chances for everyone else around it is elevated.
The only competitor I see to The Post is Dunkirk, but that is so monotone and old news that I don't think it can win.
I admit at this point I have only seen Lady Bird at this point, but wow, Saoirse Ronan was wonderful in it and I hope she gets nominated. I am more than a little tired of Meryl Streep at this point and unless she's genuinely excellent in The Post I hope the Academy'll give her a pass this time around (at least 3x in the past 10 years she has been lazily nominated for less-than-stellar Streepness (Doubt, August: Osage County, & Into The Woods).